Zelenskyy faces ‘mini-revolution’ as Yermak’s fall reshapes Ukraine’s wartime power system
Ukraine’s political system is bracing for a “mini-revolution” as president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is forced to adapt to life without his closest adviser, chief enforcer and most loyal associate, Andriy Yermak, who resigned on Friday after his apartment was searched as part of a widening anti-corruption probe. Yermak’s resignation could have tremendous consequences for domestic governance, as well as for Ukraine’s negotiating position in talks over ending the war with Russia, where he had served as the head of Ukraine’s delegation to peace talks with the White House. “It’s a mini revolution in the political system and the governance system,” said Kyiv-based political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko. “Yermak was the key element in the system of power that Zelensky had built.” Yermak, a former intellectual property lawyer, became a B-movie producer and then lawyer for Zelenskyy’s production company, back when Zelenskyy was still an actor. When his friend won victory in the 2019 presidential election, Yermak went with him into politics, first as a foreign policy adviser and then a year later as chief of staff. Yermak appeared to become untouchable as he got ever closer to the president during the years of full-scale war. He ran the most sensitive tracks of Ukraine’s foreign policy, speaking regularly with national security advisers from allied countries and was in charge of the team working on peace negotiations. He was also Zelenskyy’s chief political fixer, often giving orders to ministers, and was widely seen as the personification of the president’s will. It was Yermak who travelled to London to meet former army commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi, widely seen as the most threatening political challenger to Zelenskyy, and pitched Zaluzhnyi to join Zelenskyy’s team. Few people in the Ukrainian elite liked Yermak, but many expressed grudging admiration for his work ethic and his ruthless scheming. Some felt that the level of control, unusual in a democracy, was justified by the wartime context. Additionally, his role as a hate figure often helped to protect Zelenskyy. Even as Yermak’s apartment was searched on Friday, few expected it to push him out of office, as a broad understanding had developed that Zelenskyy was unlikely to sacrifice his most trusted aide at any cost. Although Yermak has not been charged with anything at this point, the anti-corruption investigation threatened to dominate the news agenda and lead to a full-blown crisis, amid growing public discontent over corruption. Zelenskyy’s approval rating had already taken a severe hit over the scandal. On Saturday, the Ukrainska Pravda outlet reported via sources that investigators had seized several laptops and mobile phones from Yermak’s apartment for analysis. “For Zelenskyy, it would have been a hard decision to take, he understood the political need but was psychologically dependent on Yermak,” said Fesenko, who suggested it was most likely that Yermak’s resignation had been his own decision and not a case of Zelenskyy ordering him to go. “I think Yermak understood that if he goes down, he’ll bring Zelenskyy down with him, and decided to sacrifice himself to save Zelenskyy.” As always after the downfall of a powerful political figure, the readjustment period could get messy. Some of Yermak’s loyal acolytes will now fear for their jobs, while many others in the elite will breathe a sigh of relief, and will be hoping to gain more direct access to the president. “Yermak was gatekeeping not only the president’s contacts with the outside world but also the information getting through to the president,” said Olena Prokopenko, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund. Yermak was widely believed to control a network of Telegram channels that poured dirt on those who crossed him, and was known for the ferocious policing of access to Zelenskyy. “There were around five or six people who had direct access to the president, and Yermak attempted to systematically push them out,” said Fesenko. One of those who has managed to push back is the longstanding military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, who has survived several reported Yermak-led attempts to fire him. Others who fell foul of Yermak or were seen to be growing too popular were unceremoniously fired. Zelenskyy is expected to announce a replacement imminently. Most of the names that have been floated so far are those from the president’s inner circle, but whoever is chosen is unlikely to have anything like the same power as Yermak, at least initially. This could prove challenging for a weakened Zelenskyy, especially if further revelations follow from the corruption investigation. Alternatively, it could give his presidency, already extended by more than a year from its planned endpoint due to the impossibility of holding elections during martial law, the influx of fresh ideas and more consensual decision making that many have been calling for. “There’s a very strong demand in Ukrainian society for the revision of the social contract between the president and the people, and for restructuring the relationship between president and the cabinet and parliament,” said Prokopenko.







