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‘Russia’s frontline moving west,’ Moldova’s president warns after border checkpoint attack – Europe live

Back to Oslo, the funeral procession for King Harald is about the begin, and the 1.2km route to the Oslo Cathedral is lined up with 1,900 soldiers from all branches of the Norwegian defence forces. The procession is expected to walk very slowly – at around 60 steps per minute – and will include the royal family, including King Haakon, followed by a royal car with the widow, Queen Sonja. Other distinguished guests – including foreign royals, heads of state, prime ministers – will follow. Thousands of members of the public are also along the route, with more screens set up to help them follow the events.

Tell us: how have you been affected by UK air traffic disruption?

Airports across the UK including Manchester, Birmingham and all those in London were hit by a system issue at air traffic control on Tuesday, which continued into Wednesday. We would like to hear from people travelling about how they have been affected by disruption. What has the experience been like? Have you had to change or cancel your travel plans? If you’re having trouble using the form click here. Read terms of service here and privacy policy here.

Family of British man found dead in Grenada ask local police to work with UK investigators

The family of a British father who was found dead in the Caribbean in January is urging authorities in Grenada to work with UK police to uncover the truth about his death. Andrew Frederick’s body was found in the property he was staying at in Grenada on 4 January. An autopsy, performed in the same week by a privately hired pathologist, concluded that the 47-year-old’s death was a homicide. In June, Grenada’s director of public prosecution, Howard Pinnock, said at a press conference that Frederick’s and another pending case would be sent to the coroner to determine the cause of death “because there is no basis in terms of both investigations that any homicide has occurred”. After a sustained campaign by the family, British authorities became involved and Frederick’s body was repatriated to the UK last month, where a second autopsy was carried out. The UK coroner has noted that Frederick’s organs are missing and the death is currently “unascertained”. At the start of an inquest at West London coroner’s court last week, senior coroner Lydia Brown said the Metropolitan police are now investigating Frederick’s death. The family, who attended the court hearing by video link, said the coroner’s “decision to suspend Andrew’s inquest to allow the Metropolitan police to conduct a criminal investigation marks a significant turning point”. In statement to the Guardian, they urged Grenada and the UK to work together to find out what happened to Frederick. “We are encouraged and grateful that the Metropolitan police investigation is now under way. Justice for Andrew depends on everyone with the power to act, on both sides of the Atlantic, doing what is right,” the statement said. It added: “Andrew was a deeply loved member of a close-knit family; a son, brother, father and grandson. He leaves behind his cherished daughter, who should be growing up with him beside her, not learning to live without him. “Our family remain determined to uncover the truth about what happened to Andrew and to see justice follow. We hope this ruling is the step that finally enables a complete, properly coordinated investigation and that everyone who can assist will now do so.” Earlier this year, the family had called for an urgent review of the policies governing UK assistance to the loved ones of Britons killed abroad, after they were forced to launch their own public appeals for information, and commission an independent forensic pathologist and a private investigation. “Eight months have passed since Andrew was taken from us. In that time, we have learned what no family should ever have to learn, and fought battles no family should ever face alone,” their statement said. It added: “We have relentlessly sought answers and support while carrying the weight of Andrew’s loss and the horror of what was done to him. We still do not have a complete account of what happened, and important questions remain unanswered. “We hope the Grenadian authorities with knowledge of the case will now share that information and work collaboratively with the Metropolitan police, allowing the investigation to proceed without further delay. We are also seeking urgent answers as to why Andrew’s organs were absent when his body was returned to the UK for further examination.” In Grenada, the Office of the Commissioner told the Guardian that “the matter will be progressing to the coroner’s court for the parish of Saint George”. A Met spokesperson said: “The Met is investigating the death of 47-year-old Andrew Donald Frederick, who died in Grenada on 4 January. “Mr Frederick’s family are being supported by specialist officers. “No arrests have been made at this stage and inquiries are ongoing.” Officers have contacted the Royal Grenada Police Force (RGPF) to offer assistance and discuss how the investigation can be progressed. Inquest proceedings have been suspended pending the outcome of police investigations.

Nats boss summoned by UK transport secretary as flight chaos enters second day

The boss of the air traffic control provider Nats has been summoned to meet the UK transport secretary as the number of flight cancellations passed 1,900 in a second day of disruption for hundreds of thousands of passengers. Martin Rolfe, who is facing increasing pressure to resign over a third major stoppage to flights in just over three years, is due to brief Heidi Alexander on Wednesday. Those delayed included thousands of passengers left stuck on grounded planes for many hours as the incident unravelled, and others stranded overnight at airports abroad. Airlines including Ryanair and Wizz called for Rolfe to resign or be sacked by Alexander. Rolfe ruled out a cyber-attack as a cause for the “technical issue” at air traffic control and defended the resiliency of the systems run by Nats, which provides services to 15 UK airports. “We will be doing a very thorough and full investigation,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. “We have at this point ruled out a cyber-attack. “I don’t believe we have ever seen an incident happen more than once. This will be something we haven’t seen in more than 50 years of operation. I would say the UK has one of the best reputations in the world both from a safety perspective and resilience perspective.” Nats said the problem occurred in its flight processing system but was not the same fault as those that caused outages and mass disruption in 2023 and 2025. However, Ryanair queried the explanation and said lessons had not been learned. The carrier, which on Tuesday said more than 65,000 of its passengers had been disrupted when 50 flights were cancelled, said it had now cancelled more than 250 flights and its costs would run into millions. Ryanair’s chief operations officer, Neal McMahon, said the airline had been told the issue had occurred in the flight processing system again. “Airlines across the UK cancelled over a thousand flights, and hundreds of thousands of people were disrupted because the lessons learned for the previous failures have not been delivered by Martin Rolfe,” he told Times Radio. McMahon added: “We’re told yesterday this was a spurious flight plan which caused the same outage and our question is like: ‘These things can happen, but where’s the backup systems?’” The airline, Europe’s biggest carrier, had earlier urged Alexander and Nats’ board to “stop making excuses for repeated Nats failures and appoint a new leader capable of running the UK ATC system”. Yvonne Moynihan, the managing director of Wizz Air UK, called on Rolfe to consider resigning over the repeated technical failures at Nats. “In any industry when you’ve had three failures, you need to consider three strikes and you’re out,” she told Today. “A third time and a third excuse is not enough any more. What we need to see from leadership is accountability. There are serious questions about the resilience of the system. I think Nats and the leadership need to look deep inside themselves.” On Tuesday, Nats said that the fix had been a “very complex recovery and has created difficulties for the whole aviation network, from which it will take time to recover”. According to data from the analysts Cirium, more than 1,900 flights in and out of UK airports have now been cancelled because of the failure, including 1,750 yesterday out of 5,800 scheduled flights. Of these, 541 were at Heathrow. In a statement on social media on Wednesday morning, Heathrow said: “Following yesterday’s Nats technical issue, flights are operating today, but some disruption may continue as airlines reposition aircraft and crew. “Please check your flight status with your airline before travelling to the airport and only travel if your flight is confirmed to be operating.” In a statement on X, Gatwick also said flights had resumed but the disruption was likely to continue. The breakdown started at about 1pm on Tuesday and affected departing flights at many of Britain’s biggest airports, including Heathrow, Gatwick, Manchester and Stansted. London airports, as well as Manchester, were among the most directly affected, with operations effectively suspended for hours in the afternoon. While Heathrow said the fault initially only stopped takeoffs, the airport was soon too full to accommodate more planes, with arriving flights diverted around European airports. Flights to and from other airports around the UK, including Birmingham, Edinburgh and Belfast, were also disrupted. The air traffic control problems follow an “isolated event” a year ago that caused widespread disruption, and appeared less severe than the full grounding of flights in August 2023, which prompted a parliamentary inquiry.

Reform insists National Rally agreed migrant policy after backlash in France

Reform UK has insisted its deal with France’s far-right National Rally to return migrants back across the Channel was fully approved by the party and signed off by its president, Jordan Bardella, amid a furious backlash in France. The agreement unveiled on Friday between Nigel Farage and Bardella, who is the 30-year-old protege of presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, appeared to directly contradict Le Pen’s long-held policy of refusing to accept the return of those who arrive in the UK in small boats from France. Le Pen was pressed for her position by journalists from France TV, the state broadcaster, on Monday. Le Pen declined to comment, saying she would talk about the issue soon, but at a time of her choosing. In 2021, Le Pen said she wanted a rewriting of border agreements for the UK to specifically send people arriving on boats back to their countries of origin, instead of returning them to France. Since the agreement, Bardella has come under fire from political parties in France for signing the deal, with Benjamin Haddad, the Europe minister, criticising Bardella for “submission” that was “against our interests and sovereignty”. Some French media have questioned whether Bardella was duped by Reform, querying whether the French translation accurately conveyed the meaning by Farage that the National Rally (RN) was prepared to accept any migrants back who travel by small boat. However, a Reform spokesperson said it was “signed off by both Bardella and the presidential team”, that the policy was included in the French version as well as the English, and it could “confirm both parties are fully on board”. Until the summer, Bardella had been considered as a potential replacement for Le Pen in next spring’s presidential election but will now run as her future prime minister. In July, when a Paris appeal court upheld Le Pen’s conviction for embezzling European parliament funds, her ban from running for office was reduced, allowing her to stand. Farage has kept Le Pen at arm’s length, while having cultivated good relations with Bardella over the past year, but he is rumoured to be planning to meet her later in the autumn. He previously rejected the idea of a tie-up in 2014 in the European parliament when he accused Le Pen’s party of having a history of “prejudice and antisemitism”, which she said was slander. Last week, Farage said he would not have done a deal with the party when led by Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father, a convicted Holocaust denier who co-founded the Front National in 1972. Le Pen expelled her father from the party in 2015. Farage praised her, saying she had got rid of “extreme elements”. At the heart of the row in France is the wording of the document Farage brought out for Bardella to sign with him on stage in Birmingham, calling it a memorandum of understanding. Both texts, presented side by side in English and French, state that, if Farage and Bardella become prime ministers of their respective countries, the UK will intercept boats launched from the French coast, and that France will return people onboard to their countries of origin. But the English text carried an extra phrase saying “France will ordinarily accept these persons” who would then be returned to their home country. This appeared to show that Bardella was promising to accept returned persons in France, which contradicts the long-held position of RN. France TV said RN denied any controversy, saying the text was only a declaration of intention that would be refined at a later point. Speaking in Italy over the weekend, Bardella suggested his party in government would prevent migrants from reaching France by much tougher border controls, resulting in the numbers crossing to the UK being much lower. However, RN’s opponents were critical of Bardella for signing a memorandum on immigration on stage with Farage. The MP, Sacha Houlié, an ally of the centre-left would-be presidential candidate, Raphael Glucksmann, wrote on X about what he called “a miserable episode where the whole of France could see Mr Bardella used as a doormat by the English far-right.” He told the RN: “You claim to be patriots, you’re cowards.” Gabriel Attal, the former centrist prime minister and presidential candidate, wrote on X: “To applause from his party members, Nigel Farage made Jordan Bardella sign a memorandum to ensure that all migrants intercepted in the Channel are sent back to France. Either Jordan Bardella doesn’t understand English or he is shamefully weak when it comes to defending French interests. And I think he does understand English.” Édouard Philippe, a former prime minister and centre-right candidate, said it was an example of hypocrisy and division in Bardella’s party. Philippe said it looked like Bardella found it difficult to stand up to Farage in order to “protect French interests”. Xavier Bertrand, the rightwing head of the northern Hauts-de-France region, wrote on X that in agreeing that France alone would take responsibility for returning people to their home countries, Bardella was “reducing France to the status of Britain’s subcontractor.” Chris Philp, the Conservative shadow home secretary, said: “Reform UK’s deal with Jordan Bardella is a complete farce … Time and again, Reform prove they are fundamentally unserious with grand claims for the cameras, with none of the detail or hard work that might survive actual scrutiny.”

Wednesday briefing: Inside sweeping UK sanctions on trade with Israeli settlements

Good morning. For almost half a century, British governments have condemned illegal Israeli settlements, acknowledging they represent an obstacle to peace and threaten the prospect of a two-state solution. And yet no government has ever compelled Israel to stop its expansion. Ed Miliband’s statement in the House of Commons yesterday was an attempt to change that. In a powerful and emotive speech, the foreign secretary recounted childhood memories of picking oranges on his grandmother’s kibbutz, accused Israeli “terrorists” of ethnic cleansing in the West Bank and announced a series of new measures intended to address what he described as a “deeply painful contrast” between rhetoric and reality. It was the strongest statement on Israel’s actions ever issued by the UK government. But will it make a difference to Palestinians living under the omnipresent threat of violence? Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s chief Middle East correspondent Emma-Graham Harrison and our diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour, drills into the details of Miliband’s announcement and explores that question. That’s after the headlines. Five big stories UK news | Police have been told by the government they expect better intelligence gathering after masked far-right groups took to the streets at the weekend, the Guardian has learned, as the Kent force admitted mishandling warnings of potential trouble. UK politics | Andy Burnham should tackle inequality in the UK by introducing a wealth tax, universal free personal social care and bringing gas and electricity networks under public ownership, according to a report from more than a dozen influential thinkers. Airline industry | Flight delays and cancellations were expected to continue today at UK airports after another air traffic control failure kept planes grounded for hours, affecting hundreds of thousands of passengers. Iran | Iranian forces claimed to have seized an American underwater drone in the strait of Hormuz that the US military said had “malfunctioned” more than a day earlier. US news | Donald Trump gave sizeable holiday gifts to four White House aides, according to new financial disclosures released by the administration, including $45,000 to executive assistant Natalie Harp. In depth: Could Miliband’s statement shift what seems politically possible? The number of settlers in the occupied West Bank (including East Jerusalem) has risen from 270,000 in 1993 at the time of the Oslo Accords to about 770,000 today. Settlements are often framed as the project of violent extremists backed by far-right cabinet ministers, but Israel’s annexation enjoys longstanding cross-party support. As Emma Graham-Harrison wrote in January, the idea has “persisted in Israeli political imagination,” and although Israeli politicians have condemned settler violence, roughly half of Israelis think settlements help Israel’s security. In August, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government opened the tendering process for construction work on the E1 settlement, a vast project for 1,200 homes that would cut across the heart of the West Bank, dividing it in two and jeopardising the prospect of a two-state solution. Final bids for these contracts close days before the Israeli election next month, and the timing is strategic. “Netanyahu is trying to make E1 an election issue,” Patrick Wintour tells me. Miliband’s predecessors Yvette Cooper and David Lammy condemned the plans for E1, and Cooper backed international sanctions on individual settlers. But neither went as far as Miliband. “He’s a more decisive foreign secretary,” Patrick tells me. “You can’t sporadically say this is an outrage, and then not mention it for two months”. His stance also reflects Labour’s desire to win back voters on the left. The post-match analysis from Labour’s disastrous May local elections focused on the threat of Reform, but the Greens were a bigger threat to Labour’s vote. Miliband acknowledged yesterday that “Labour has not done enough in the face of what is happening”, and has announced these sanctions just before a pivotal byelection in Holborn and St Pancras, where the leader of the Green party, Zack Polanski, will be contesting Keir Starmer’s former seat. *** What has Miliband announced? It’s worth remembering where we were just two years ago, when Starmer’s government was still resisting calls for a ceasefire in Gaza. Although Starmer became more critical of Netanyahu’s government and ultimately recognised Palestinian statehood, Miliband’s speech marked a significant shift in tone and substance from this equivocating stance. He framed his intervention not as an argument with Israelis, “with whom the UK has unshakeable bonds”, but with the conduct of Israel’s government, its illegal occupation of Palestine, and with “settler terrorists”, while attacking the Boycott, Divest and Sanctions movement that calls to limit all trade with Israel. The first measure he announced is a widely anticipated ban on the import of goods from illegal settlements. This is important, not least because these settlements violate international law, but the economic impact of the ban will probably be minimal. The settlement economy is relatively small, and its products are already excluded from a 1995 EU free trade deal that reduces the tariffs on Israeli imports to Europe. It’s also kept alive by generous subsidies from the Israeli government. Israeli exporters to Europe regularly hide the origins of produce grow in settlements, something that could be dealt with by the “comprehensive sanctions regime” Miliband is working up with the business secretary. As significant as the ban itself is the fact France and Canada will join the UK in sanctioning Israeli settlements, a diplomatic coup for Miliband. Far-right ministers such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have come out forcefully against Miliband’s sanctions (on Monday, Ben-Gvir issued a statement in Spanish calling for sanctions on Britain over its “occupation” of the Falkland Islands). Part of the reason is because Israel’s economy is bound far more closely to Europe than to the United States, and they fear a domino effect. “The UK is a permanent member of the security council, and they’re worried that Miliband’s statement could shift the window in terms of what seems politically possible,” says Emma. “Someone else stands up and says it, and suddenly, you aren’t taking an initiative – you’re following another country.” *** What will this mean for illegal settlements? One of its most transformative changes could be Miliband’s pledge to take action against companies and individuals who finance or “facilitate” illegal settlements. Any individual or company that wants to bid for government led construction projects, including new settlement expansion, needs a guarantor to underwrite their new property. Settlement residents also need banking services. Under these changes, banks and other companies that provide services to Israeli settlements will be sanctioned. “Hypothetically, this could force mainstream financial organisations in Israel to choose between financing settlements, or doing business with the UK,” Emma says. *** What has the fallout been? Israeli ministers have frequently made their intentions in the West Bank clear, but the gap between reality and the reactions of the international community is vast. Miliband’s statement went some way towards closing that. He announced that the British government officially views Israel’s occupation as unlawful (it had previously declared settlements illegal but remained silent on the wider occupation) and that it will refuse all licences for arms that contribute to the occupation. He chose his words carefully, accusing “settler terrorists” of “ethnic cleansing”. As the Israeli human rights lawyer Michael Sfard observed, the recognition of ethnic cleansing triggers legal obligations on the UK to prevent it in the West Bank, potentially dictating “many aspects of British policy towards Israel”. Israel retaliated by announcing it will be closing the consulate in Jerusalem and banning 11 MPs (on a list topped by Jeremy Corbyn) from entering the country. Meanwhile, the US has threatened “repercussions”. “There is no limit on what Trump could potentially do,” Patrick says. “But it’s worth bearing in mind that he is quite ambivalent about Netanyahu at the moment.” Their relationship has soured over Israel’s refusal to agree to Trump’s peace plan and the ongoing conflict in Iran. Unquestioning bipartisan support for Israel among US politicians appears to be faltering. Rahm Emanuel, Obama’s former chief of staff who is sounding out a presidential bid, has said he would back sanctions on companies financing illegal settlements. Earlier this week, Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, attacked Miliband for “Jew hate” over the (not yet announced) sanctions plans, but he has also called settler violence an “act of terror”. Miliband’s statement is a powerful recognition of the international law that Israel has relentlessly tried to reject, and comes at a time when itlooks increasingly isolated. What else we’ve been enjoying Tom Wall’s investigation reveals how councils are paying millions to house at-risk children in unsuitable care homes, including hotels, Airbnb properties and, in one case, a tent. It’s a tough read, but I’m grateful that Tom’s kept the spotlight on children, who need us most and who we, as a society, serve least. Libby Picture a giant pumpkin, then double its size – Gladys is even bigger. There’s lots of rich detail in today’s pass notes on the 14ft circumference fruit (or is she a vegetable?) Michael One of the many delights of writing a newsletter is the chance to draw readers’ attention where it might not ordinarily land. So it is with our sister email Moving the Goalposts, discussing a recent blow-up in South Korean women’s football. Libby A new Elon Musk documentary is doing the film festival rounds, and this roundup of its key takeaways has certainly piqued my interest. Michael In case you missed it, this Today in Focus episode about Gloria Steinem’s life and legacy is worth a listen for the fabulous archive material and more. Libby Sport Football | Two goals in the first 23 minutes secured Real Madrid a 2-1 victory against Inter, who had pulled one back through Carlos Augusto, in the Champions League. Tennis | Frances Tiafoe comes back from two sets down and two points from defeat to beat his fellow American Alex Michelsen in an instant classic over 4hr 38min at Arthur Ashe Stadium Cricket | Late-night drinking incidents and a post-Bazball reboot have given England plenty to think about, while Pakistan have their own problems to sort out, as the final Test of the summer starts at Edgbaston on Wednesday. The front pages “UK condemns ‘ethnic cleansing by Israeli terrorists’ in West Bank”, is the Guardian’s front page today. The Times leads with “Israel reacts with fury to UK curbs on settlements”, the i Paper also has “Israeli fury after UK accuses settlers of ethnic cleansing” and Metro runs “Backlash as UK accuses Israel”. The Mail says “Miliband accused of putting Jews in UK in danger”, and the Express writes “‘You have put an increased target on us’”. Elsewhere, the FT splashes “Bailey warns of ‘upside’ inflation risks as debt costs pile pressure on Healey”, the Telegraph writes “Air traffic collapse grounds flights”, and the Sun has “That’s another flyin’ mess”. The Latest UK condemns Israeli settlers conducting ethnic cleansing in West Bank The UK has attacked ‘settler terrorism’ deployed in a campaign of ethnic cleansing in the West Bank, while announcing sweeping sanctions on trade with Israeli settlements in occupied Palestine. Foreign secretary Ed Miliband delivered the strongest condemnation of the actions of the Israeli government ever by a British government, including the disproportionate killings in Gaza of at least 70,000 people including 20,000 children. Lucy Hough speaks to chief Middle East correspondent Emma Graham-Harrison. Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad Bogotá is not the only city to face the challenges of a rapidly aging population but, with a fertility rate lower than Tokyo, the Colombian capital is taking a creative approach. As multigenerational homes become less common, the mayor opened “care blocks”, where caregivers can drop off a toddler or an elderly relative for a few hours. Reducing social isolation is key, so the city has started prescribing culture and nature-based activities. Last December, a seniors’ grand ball saw about 4,500 older people dancing to live salsa at the city’s Movistar arena. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

Europeans want a united Europe but question whether it can get there, study finds

Europeans overwhelmingly want a strong, united and independent Europe but question whether it can get there, according to a study that suggests a continent-wide crisis of confidence is creating fertile ground for far-right narratives of decline. The report, based on 5,800 interviews in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and the UK and analysis of the way Europe is discussed in the politics and media of 15 countries, paints a picture of an ambitious but disillusioned public. It found that 68% of respondents spoke about Europe in terms of a “general deterioration or loss of normality”, compared with just 12% who said they viewed the present moment as a time of “European awakening and renewal”. Many recognised the major challenges facing Europe, including war (43%), economic pressures (33%) and the need for greater international autonomy (29%). But 74% said Europe was not dealing well with them, and 56% believed its future was “in danger”. The problem is not lack of ambition: an overwhelming 73% of respondents harbour a strong European vision of unity and political integration (35%), peace and security (28%) or prosperity (19%), while only 13% hope for “less Europe” or EU dissolution. For many, said the study’s author, Paweł Zerka, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank, the problem was “not that they’ve stopped wanting a stronger Europe, but that they no longer believe it’s achievable”. The result, Zerka added, was an “imagination gap. People can picture the kind of Europe they want, but struggle to imagine a credible path from where it is today to where they want it to be. These are matters of policy, not just communication.” A week before the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, is due to deliver her annual “state of the union” address in Brussels, Zerka said the evidence suggested the bloc needed “fewer grand promises” and more “proof of trajectory”. The study cites dozens of conversations with Europeans. “I’m regularly relieved I live in Europe. It’s not perfect and some things are going in the wrong direction, but no region in the world is safer, freer and more democratic,” one German said. However, while he identified the climate crisis and far-right parties as the continent’s greatest challenges, he said they were not being tackled effectively. “Elections focus too much on the here and now, and not enough on the future,” he said. The respondent said he would like Europe in 20 years’ time to be “free, democratic, sustainable, less indebted, politically further to the left [and] peaceful”. Asked whether he thought that was likely to happen, he said: “No.” The study classed Europe’s voters in four categories. The Positives (19%) are staunch pro-Europeans who view current crises as a catalyst for a stronger, more integrated union. The Negatives (39%) believe Europe’s best days are behind it. Almost half of people in France, Germany and Italy – and almost all who voted for radical-right parties such as Germany’s AfD, France’s RN, the Dutch PVV and Reform UK – were Negatives, with 83% speaking of Europe in terms of loss and decline. The Disconnected (12%) are generally apathetic voters for whom EU integration is distant background noise, and the Uncertain (31%) share pro-European values but doubt the continent’s ability to act decisively, keep citizens safe or uphold its values. Almost a third (32%) of respondents across all countries surveyed mentioned “Europe’s slowness” in their responses. As one young Polish citizen, born in the 2000s, put it bluntly: “The EU fundamentally discusses a lot, but does nothing.” The bloc’s failure to stand its ground when confronted by powerful actors was also a recurring theme, mentioned by almost a third (30%) of all respondents, with the EU’s recent tariff concessions to Donald Trump a particularly humiliating symbol. Zerka said the Uncertain group was key to the future trajectory of Europe. “Leaders tend to preach to the Positives or bow down to the Negatives,” he said, but it “is among the ‘uncertain’ where belief in Europe’s future remains up for grabs.” Unlike hardened Eurosceptics, Uncertain voters retain a strong emotional attachment to the European project, the report argues, but are alienated by institutional inertia, bureaucratic slowness and perceived geopolitical weakness. Winning back those doubters would require politicians to demonstrate that collective European action can solve tangible domestic crises, from energy security and defence to climate change and the cost of living crisis, Zerka said.

‘Miserable and impossible’: food scarce in Kyiv as Russia targets supply chains

Stocking up on cured sausages from the half-empty shelves in her local supermarket, Valentyna Sveshnikova is worried about money. The 68-year-old grandmother lives off her small pension and has already noticed the cost of several goods increase, including sausages. Russia wants “to make our life miserable and impossible. And they’re actually succeeding in it,” she says. Russian strikes on food warehouses and logistics supply chains around several Ukrainian cities have left gaps on supermarket shelves and risk causing price increases. Kyiv has faced a particularly intense barrage of attacks. A temporary truce that was in place between Moscow and Kyiv to ensure the safe passage of US negotiators over the weekend ended abruptly on Monday night when jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles pounded Ukraine’s capital, killing two people. Many shelves at the Novus supermarket where Sveshnikova is shopping for groceries are empty. But customers, hardened by four years of war, are sanguine. “It’s scary, but I don’t plan to go anywhere,” says 40-year-old Dariya Malyukova. The agrarian policy and food minister, Taras Vysotsky, has warned that food prices could increase by 2.5% because of the attacks on warehouse infrastructure. But Dmytro Krymskiy, the co-founder of Bureau of Wine, which operates several high-end retail brands in Ukraine, including the supermarket chain Goodwine, says the impact could be as high as 15%. One of Krymskiy’s warehouses near Kyiv was hit on 1 September, wiping out €4m (£3.4m) of stock. The attacks “seriously hurt our business”, he says. Krymskiy says that prices will increase not because of a shortage of supplies, but because of the cost of reorganising supply chains to make them more resilient against strikes. He is exploring several options, including moving his warehouses to a neighbouring country such as Poland, using underground storage facilities and splitting his stock across several smaller sites. “We understand that we cannot have only one big warehouse,” he said. Krymskiy thinks his prices could rise by about 5%. The latest strike did not come as a complete surprise; it was the third time since the start of the full-scale invasion that his warehouses had been hit. The first, in 2022, destroyed €15m of supplies, while another attack in July this year annihilated €1.5m-worth of goods. “It was really a matter of time,” he says. “The problem is, we had 3,000 pallets there, and you simply cannot move it,” he says. The recent onslaught of airborne attacks also meant that warehouse staff could only work for three to four hours per day, reducing the company’s ability to shift stock. The raids come at a difficult time for Ukraine. Kyiv has been hit by a torrent of daily drone and missile strikes since late August, killing dozens of people and destroying key infrastructure. As well as the food warehouses, Russia has targeted e-commerce logistics hubs and stockpiles of medical supplies. On Wednesday night, one of the World Health Organization’s main warehouses storing humanitarian aid on the outskirts of Kyiv was hit. At the warehouse of Biokon, a pharmaceutical company, the air was thick with the smell of burnt fuel on Friday as firefighters picked through the wreckage of the building. The company said in a statement that three months of medicines had been destroyed and that it had suspended all operations. Shopkeepers and customers say that most people are not panic-buying food in the way that they were in 2022. “What’s the point?” says Iryna Mesyanzhynova, a 54-year-old woman shopping for groceries at ATB, a low-cost supermarket in Brovary, near some of the burnt-out warehouses. “I have a bit of extra products, like porridge oats, but for the rest – vegetables, fruits – why would I buy them? They will just rot. “I’m trying to deal with today’s problem,” she says. “I try not to think about the future.” In a statement to the Guardian, Vysotsky, the agrarian policy and food minister, said that the logistics hubs of all of Ukraine’s leading supermarket chains, including Novus, ATB, Silpo and Fora had been destroyed or significantly damaged in the recent strikes. “This wave of strikes is the most massive since the beginning of the full-scale invasion,” Vysotsky said. “If in 2022 the enemy attacked mainly export-agricultural infrastructure, and in the following years destroyed the energy sector, then the attacks of August-September 2026 are a systemic attack on the internal civilian life support system. The enemy is purposefully trying to destroy the logistics that provide Ukrainian cities with food.” Aside from growing their own food, which many people already do, Ukrainians have few options other than trying to continue as normal. The attacks are “not our first of the war”, says Olena Zhuk, a 36-year-old travel manager shopping at a central Kyiv farmer’s market. “We will survive. We will not die from the hunger.” Additional reporting by Illia Dyadik