Ukraine may need to cut drone production if no deal reached on frozen Russian assets, says Zelenskyy – as it happened

The authoritarian Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has said during a press conference that Russia has deployed its latest nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system to the country.

Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus since 1994, did not say how many missiles have been deployed or give any other details.

Belarus is a key ally to Moscow, having served as a launchpad for Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and supplying the Russian army with clothing, gear and equipment (although not its soldiers).

Russia first used the Oreshnik (the hazel) missile against Ukraine in November 2024, targeting a defence enterprise in the city of Dnipro.

Putin claimed he had authorised that strike in retaliation for Ukraine’s use of US and British long-range missiles on Russian territory. He later threatened further strikes, including on “decision-making centres” in Kyiv, if such attacks continued.

Putin has said the Oreshnik is impossible to intercept and has destructive power comparable to a nuclear weapon, though experts have questioned these assertions.

Here is a bit more colour on the farmers’s protests, via AFP with the agency reporting that tensions boiled over at a farmer demonstration against the EU’s planned trade deal with South American bloc Mercosur.

About 1,000 honking tractors rolled into the Belgian capital to heap pressure on an EU leaders’ summit where the deal’s fate hung in the balance.

“We’re here to say no to Mercosur,” Belgian dairy farmer Maxime Mabille told AFP. “It’s like Europe has become a dictatorship,” he said, accusing European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen of seeking to “force the deal through”.

At least 7,000 farmers staged a mostly peaceful march through the capital’s European quarter, where the Mercosur deal loomed large over an EU summit focused on funding Ukraine’s war effort.

But rowdy scenes erupted outside the European Parliament, where farmers lit a bonfire of tires and hay and threw tubers at the police, who fired back with teargas – with black smoke filling surrounding streets.

AFP witnessed acts of vandalism by troublemakers on the sidelines, who smashed windows at the parliament building.

Let me bring you a few lines from Nato’s Mark Rutte’s press conference in Poland (14:48).

He was specifically asked about Ukraine’s prospects for joining Nato, and he offered a very honest answer as he said:

“The principal element, as you know, is that any country in the Euro-Atlantic area can apply for membership. That’s the Washington Treaty, and at the Washington summit last year in Washington in 2024, (the) allies agreed on the irreversible path of Ukraine into Nato.

And [then] there’s is a practical element. And the practical element is that as we speak, a couple of allies are saying they will not give their consent, and therefore will withhold unanimity to Ukraine entering Nato; countries like Hungary, the United States, Slovakia, and maybe a couple others. So that’s the practical point of it.”

Rutte also spoke about “three layers” of security guarantees for Ukraine post-peace deal, starting with the Ukrainian Armed Forces, followed by the Coalition of the Willing, and the US support.

“At the moment, discussions are ongoing what that exactly would mean, and how then this collective package of security guarantees would look like,” he says.

And here are the latest scenes from the farmers’s protest outside the European Parliament, with clashes with riot police at Place du Luxembourg.

Zelenskyy gets asked by a Belgian broadcaster to try to persuade the Belgian people and respond to their concerns about the use of frozen Russian assets.

He says that from a morality point of view, it’s only fair to use Russian funds against their attacks on a sovereign country.

He acknowledges fears about a potential legal action by Russia, but says “it’s not as scary as when Russia is at your borders.”

Asked about the timing specifically, Zelenskyy makes it clear that Ukraine needs the decision on the use of frozen assets to come before the end of the year.

“This year,” he stresses.

On EU accession, Zelenskyy talks about the importance of the process not getting blocked by any of the member states (hi, Hungary), as he says that joining the bloc should be considered a part of broader security guarantees for Kyiv.

So, he says, the prospect of joining the EU is of “utmost importance,” as is the principle that it shouldn’t be conditional on Russia’s permission or support.

Asked about the US-led peace talks, he says “there is progress in our dialogue with the American side.” But he raises some concerns about some areas in which Russia is expected to push back on what is being discussed.

He says that includes the presence of European stabilisation force in Ukraine, stressing the importance of that solution so that Kyiv has security guarantees from both the US and Europe.

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy is now also briefing the journalists.

Zelenskyy tells journalists that he doesn’t know how the talks will end today, but it is getting increasingly urgent for Ukraine to secure fresh funding, as it faces a €45-50bn deficit for next year.

He warns that Ukraine would need to cut its drone production if it doesn’t receive more money by spring.

He says Ukraine is doing everything it can to end the war, but there is no guarantee that this process will succeed, particularly given less than conciliatory comments from the Kremlin.

He says Ukraine must be in a position to remain strong and continue to be able to fight.

He says he had a good conversation with Belgium’s de Wever, and they understand each other’s position, but as Ukraine is at war, it faces even greater risks.

Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk has just popped out to brief Polish journalists briefly on the conversations so far, starkly warning them about the stakes of today’s talks.

He told them that the leaders are engaged “in a very difficult process” of trying to come to an agreement, with a group of more critical countries “theoretically most at risk from some sort of retaliatory or financial action from Russia,” primarily Belgium, asking for clear guarantees and safeguards.

He says there is a “breakthrough” in the sense of getting to a broad agreement about the need to move on this and the leaders are now looking for ways to make all countries comfortable with what’s being proposed.

But Tusk starkly set out what’s at stake in today’s talks, as he tells reporters that “Polish independence would be under threat if it turns out that as a consequence of poor decisions or a lack of action from Europe, Ukraine war forced to surrender.”

“I want this to finally sink in for everyone – not just for our colleagues here in Europe, but for everyone in Poland as well – that when we talk about the necessity of supporting Ukraine using these Russian funds, it is because we know full well that Ukrainian independence pushes the risk of aggression or war away from Polish borders. Conversely, the fall of Ukraine as a result of this war would mean a direct threat to Poland,” he says.

in Brussels

The EU would act in “full solidarity” with Belgium and other member states affected by any fallout from the reparations loan, according to a draft summit text.

Belgium, which holds most of the €210bn frozen Russian assets in the EU, has said it will not sign up to a reparations loan for Ukraine unless it has unlimited guarantees the rest of the union will help pay the bill if Moscow is successful in suing for its money.

The latest version of the summit communique, seen by the Guardian, shows that EU officials striving to convince the Belgians.

“The European Union will act in full solidarity with affected member states and financial institutions in the EU in the context of the reparations loan.”

The text promises “EU solidarity and risk sharing among all member states providing guarantees proportional to the size of their economy” and notes that some support could be for non-military purposes.

This underlines that not all member states, i.e, Hungary and Slovakia, support a reparations loan and therefore the guarantees that go with it. The text also offers a way to involve neutral states, such as Ireland, who provide non-lethal military and civilian aid only to Ukraine.

It also states the guarantees would have no impact on how member states account for their national debt – a crucial point as several EU countries are already in special measures for excessive government debt and deficits.

And it stresses the importance of “burden sharing and coordination of efforts with G7 and other like-minded partners”. That means the EU wants other countries holding Russian assets – the UK, Japan, Canada, Switzerland and Norway, for instance – to follow suit if leaders agree to tap the assets as the basis for a loan.

All these points and many more remain in square brackets, the negotiating shorthand for to be confirmed…

We will find out later, probably much later, if Belgium is convinced.

Meanwhile, and the timing is not accidental I think, Russia’s central bank has just made it very clear what it thinks about the discussions in Brussels.

In a short press statement right on cue, it said that “in connection with the ongoing attempts … to illegaly seize and use” its assets, it just wanted to warn everyone that would take legal actions to “recover damages from European banks in a Russian arbitration court,” demanding not just the value of “illegally withheld assets,” but also “lost profits.”

Briefing the press after her chat with leaders this morning, European Parliament’s Roberta Metsola says “we need to keep the momentum, we need to stand united with our Ukrainian partners.”

She says the focus is on taking decisive actions to “make sure that this war is not simply postponed, but ended, and it requires strong and robust security guarantees that will ensure Ukraine’s security, and, ultimately, Europe’s security.”

She says today is the “crunch day” for taking decisions on financing Ukraine.

Posting a snap from inside the room, European Council president António Costa confirms the “exchange” with Zelenskyy is now under way.

He says:

“Peace is not cheap. It is priceless.

Since the start of Russia’s aggression, the people of Ukraine have been paying the ultimate price for their freedom. Europe remains resolute in supporting them for as long as it takes.

Dear President @ZelenskyyUa, welcome back to the #EUCO.”

Russian affairs reporter

Russia has warned it will respond with “the harshest” retaliation if Europe uses frozen Russian state assets to support Ukraine – a threat that has sharpened divisions inside the EU.

Vladimir Putin has branded the European plans as “piracy” and “property theft”, while Russian officials have openly discussed seizing remaining western assets in Russia if the bloc moves ahead.

Behind the scenes, Moscow has explored legal and regulatory measures that would ease further nationalisations, building on a campaign that has already stripped foreign companies of billions of dollars since the invasion of Ukraine.

The Guardian revealed on Wednesday that Belgian politicians and senior finance officials have also been targeted by an intimidation campaign orchestrated by Russian intelligence, aimed at pressuring Brussels to block the use of the €185bn in frozen assets to support Ukraine.

Russia’s threats have landed unevenly across the bloc. Belgium, Italy and Austria – countries with banks, companies and financial infrastructure still deeply exposed to Russia – have voiced growing concern that retaliation would hit them first and hardest.

Western companies still have an estimated $127bn in assets in Russia, according to the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, while more than 2,000 foreign firms continue to operate in the country.

Moscow also controls vast sums held in so-called type-C accounts, where dividends and investment proceeds owed to western investors are frozen. The Russian business outlet RBK has reported that the Kremlin could swiftly redirect those funds into the state budget if Europe moves ahead.

EU lawyers, however, insist the legal risks are being overstated. They argue that international courts are unlikely to have jurisdiction over Russia’s sovereign reserves, and that the wave of lawsuits threatened by Moscow is designed less to win in court than to intimidate and delay Europe’s plans.

Before skipping the European Council arrivals, Belgian prime minister Bart de Wever spoke in the Belgian parliament this morning.

He told lawmakers that Belgium continued to be concerned about any plan that would leave it exposed to legal risks from Russia, and demanded strong guarantees on sharing that risk with other countries.

“We need a parachue before we jump. If we are asked to jump, we all jump together,” he said in comments quoted by Le Soir.

He acknowledged that “everything can change last minute,” but there were still issues with the proposed text that required further work.

But he stressed that the disagreement was on ‘how,’ not ‘if’ Ukraine should be funded, stressing the urgency of this challenge.

Turning to English now, Macron says the leaders want to “deliver a package of financing” for Ukraine, and “it’s very important we find the right compromise and I’m confident that we will find it.”

But he says the European position is “very clear,” with Europeans supporting Ukraine in this war effort, as they try to help with financing and on path to “a robust and solid peace.”

France’s Emmanuel Macron says the meeting comes at a critical time for Europe to demonstrate it can continue to protect itself.

After briefly losing patience with the absolute mess of microphones in front of him, he talks about the discussion on Ukraine funding and stresses “this is the decision that we must make.”

But he says “we must bring everyone together,” and find a joint position.

He also talks about the importance of continuing peace negotiations, but also pointedly references Putin’s recent comments – Merz also did that earlier – as a sign that Moscow isn’t necessarily serious about ending the war.

All eyes are on Belgium’s Bart de Wever today, who has been very outspoken about what he sees as risks arising from the reparations loan, and quite open about the pressure he and his government has faced from both European allies, and from Russia.

We may not get a doorstep reaction from him this morning, though, as he appears to be keen to keep his cards close to his chest, Euronews is reporting.

A poll earlier this week showed he was broadly supported by the Belgian public, with more than 60% backing his opposition to the EU’s plan. But can he deal with the pressure when in the same room as Ukraine’s Zelenskyy?

Earlier this month, he caused quite a stir saying at a public event that it was “complete illusion” to believe Russia would lose the war, as he complained about “incredible” pressure around the issue.

In an edited transcript of the event, the La Libre newspaper quoted him as saying that “Moscow has let us know that … Belgium and I personally will feel the effect [of seizing Russian assets] for eternity,” adding: “That seems like a pretty long time.”

But that’s not the only form of pressure experienced by Belgium.

Belgian politicians and senior finance executives have been subject to a campaign of intimidation orchestrated by Russian intelligence aimed at persuading the country to block the use of €185bn assets for Ukraine, according to European intelligence agencies.

Security officials indicated to the Guardian that there had been deliberate targeting of key figures at Euroclear, the securities depository holding the majority of Russia’s frozen assets, and leaders of the country.

Germany’s chancellor Friedrich Merz confirms his support for the EU’s reparations loan, saying he sees “no better option.”

He diplomatically acknowledges Belgium’s concerns, and says he hopes “we can address them together” to “send a signal of strength and resolve … towards Russia.”

The Lithuanian president, Gitanas Nausėda, says “this is not the time to hesitate” as he says “we have to make a decision on the reparations loan”, and urges the EU to “touch untouchables” like Gazprom, Novatek, Lukoil, “because only those bold decisions hurt and [have] big impact on Russian economy”.

“We have to put more efforts into making Russia feel the cost and price of its aggression,” he says.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that a failure to agree on the use of frozen Russian assets would pose a serious challenge for Ukraine.

“I will speak with all the leaders, present our arguments, and I very much hope we can obtain a positive decision. Without it, there will be a big problem for Ukraine,” Zelenskyy told reporters, quoted by AFP.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stresses that “we haven’t seen any willingness from the Russian side to move or seriously talk about peace,” as she explains the need to move on reparations loan to put more pressure on Moscow.

She says the EU have been working on proposals addressing Belgium’s concerns so “the risk and the burden is shared equally.”

“I hope that we get this over the finishing line. Putin is banking on us to fail, so we should not give him that,” she says.

She also makes the practical argument, saying “the reparations loan is the most viable option right now, on the table, [and] we need to work with that as we have tried other things before.”

She says a decision on this would “sent a strong signal to Russia” that the EU is prepared to support Ukraine for the next two years, raising the pressure on Moscow to come to the negotiating table.

Curiously, she appears to rule out the idea of voting the proposal through without Belgium’s consent.

She says “many member states have said that Belgium’s consent is very important,” so “I don’t think that we are going to move without Belgium feeling comfortable.”

She says the chances of getting a deal are “50/50.”

The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, is also very clear as to what she wants from this meeting, as she says “we have one ultimate goal in this European Council, and that is peace for Ukraine, peace through strength, and for that, Ukraine needs to have a secure funding for the next two years, 2026 and 2027.”

She acknowledges the talks will be “intensive,” but says “for me, the most important part is that, at the end of the day, we have secured the funding for Ukraine for the next two years.”

Striking a conciliatory note, she says she “fully supports Belgium’s demands and asks” to share the risks of the reparations loan, and says the work to find a compromise is “ongoing.”

The European Council president António Costa is clear that the talks will go on for as long as it’s needed to get an agreement.

He seeks to maintain a largely neutral position, but says:

“What I can ensure that we will work on this during the today, [and] if it’s necessary tomorrow, but we will never leave the Council without a final decision to ensure the financial needs of Ukraine for 2026 and 2027.”

Ireland’s Micheál Martin says he is expecting a “very comprehensive” meeting with an update on Ukraine peace talks and a discussion on the use of frozen Russian assets.

“Ceasefire situation is very, very challenging, and linked to that is the future financing of Ukraine, and obviously the debate around immobilised assets. We’re very much in favour of the utilisation of immobilised assets,” he says.

He says the principle at stake is that “countries can’t simply destroy another country and expect others to pay for all of the reconstruction of that country.”

Martin says “it is important that we get agreement today,” as “it’s important that Europe … [shows] unity today.”

He says he can’t predict what’s going to happen with “certainty,” but felt there was a momentum behind the proposal for using frozen Russian assets.

The chief opponent of sending any further money to Ukraine, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, just told reporters in Brussels that the idea of using frozen Russian assets was “stupid.”

“The whole idea is stupid. … There are two countries which are at war – it’s not European Union, [it’s] Russia and Ukraine – and the European Union would like to take away the money of one of the warring party and then to give it to another one.

It’s marching into the war. The Belgian prime minister is right, we should not do that.”

EU leaders are meeting in Brussels today for end-of-year talks with a key decision to make on using frozen Russian assets to boost Ukraine’s defence against Russia.

The 27-nation bloc scrambles to strengthen Kyiv’s hand while Donald Trump pushes for a quick deal to end the fighting as the war drags towards the four-year mark.

The EU estimates Ukraine needs an extra €135bn ($159bn) to stay afloat over the next two years, with the cash crunch set to start in April. To plug the gap the European Commission has put forward a plan to tap some €210bn of Russian central bank assets frozen in the bloc.

German chancellor Friedrich Merz said the assets plan was essential to increase pressure on Vladimir Putin and send “a clear signal to Russia”.

Poland’s Donald Tusk went even further this morning, warning: “we have a simple choice: either money today, or blood tomorrow,” adding: “I’m not talking about Ukraine only, I’m talking about Europe.”

Belgium, the home of Euroclear which holds most Russian assets, has been leading the opposition bloc asking questions about potential legal issues, with Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Italy, Malta, Slovakia also expressing doubts.

Technically it’s not enough to bloc the proposal if a vote gets called under qualified majority rules, but politically it makes it very awkward for everyone involved.

But there is no sign of compromise, as the only other option – focusing on EU debt - would require unanimity, and would get blocked by Hungary, which flatly denies any further help for Ukraine.

European officials have insisted the Brussels talks will last as long as it takes to reach agreement, warning that Ukraine’s survival and Europe’s credibility are at stake.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said this morning she won’t leave the meeting before an agreement is reached. But the Slovak prime minister, Robert Fico, joked earlier this week that they can keep him there until the New Year, and he won’t back it either.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to also join the summit in a last-ditch attempt to convince the critics.

I will bring you all the key developments here. But get ready for a long, long day.

It’s Thursday, 18 December 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.

Good morning.