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Original article by Jakub Krupa
The European Commission’s (unsustainable) position on why they are not offering a line on Bulgaria (12:51) appears to have been abandoned.
With 98.78% of votes counted (so still not 100%!) its president, Ursula von der Leyen, has just congratulated Rumen Radev on his win last night.
“Congratulations to Rumen Radev on his victory in the parliamentary elections.
Bulgaria is a proud member of the European family and plays an important role in tackling our common challenges.
I look forward to working together, for the prosperity and security of Bulgaria and Europe.”
Updated
Europe correspondent
and Eden Maclachlan in Sofia
Bulgaria’s Moscow-friendly former president has won an absolute majority in parliamentary elections that could bring the country political stability after years of short-lived coalitions, but leave it walking a tightrope on EU issues.
With more than 97% of ballots counted, the Progressive Bulgaria party of Rumen Radev, a former fighter pilot and air force chief, had scored 44.7% of the vote, giving it an estimated 131 of the 240 seats in the national assembly.
The election was Bulgaria’s eighth since 2021, when huge anti-corruption rallies brought down the government of long-serving pro-European premier Boyko Borissov, and Radev’s majority is the first for a single political formation since 1997.
Radev, 62, who stepped down from the largely ceremonial role of president in January to campaign on an anti-graft ticket, has criticised a recent defence agreement signed between Bulgaria and Ukraine and opposed Sofia sending arms to Kyiv.
He has, however, pledged not use Bulgaria’s veto to block future EU decisions, and analysts note that he has consistently denied being aligned with the Kremlin, backed EU membership, and appeared deliberately vague on foreign policy.
In a message perhaps designed to calm concerns about possible pro-Russia drift, one of Radev’s closest associates, Slavi Vassilev, said last week Bulgarians “do not want closer ties to Russia, but rather … continued active participation in Nato and the EU”.
EU diplomats have said they do not expect Radev to seek to take over from Hungary’s pro-Moscow, anti-Brussels prime minister Viktor Orbán, whose 16 years in power were dramatically ended last weekend, as the bloc’s disrupter-in-chief.
However, Dimitar Keranov, a Bulgarian fellow of the German Marshall Fund’s European resilience programme in Berlin, warned that “the corrupt system remains” and while “the mere prospect of stability is significant … stability is not reform”.
“A Kremlin-friendly leader governing a Nato and EU member state on the Black Sea, days after Hungary voted Orbán out, is bad news for the EU and for Ukraine,” he added.
Updated
In the absence of any comment from the European Commission, we have our Europe correspondent Jon Henley and Eden Maclachlan in Sofia with more on Radev’s victory…
Over to Jon and Eden.
Updated
After its refusal to comment on Bulgarian election (12:25), the commission now gets (rightly, I would say) called out for the fact that it had not exercised similar caution last week as the EU rushed to celebrate Péter Magyar’s win over Viktor Orbán.
Deputy chief spokesperson Gill insists that it’s all down to the votes still being counted – although the situation was literally the same last week and yet the commission was very happy to comment on the results.
Also, given the massive lead with 90%+ votes counted, it’s not like anything is going to change…
Pushed on whether this reaction suggests a lack of enthusiasm on the EU’s side, he replies that:
“The commission always works with all governments in the European Union to promote the interests of their citizens and European interests, and that’s all I can say at the moment, given that votes are still being counted in Bulgaria.”
Updated
The commission also got asked about the Italian proposals for a “wild west-style bounties” that could be paid to Italian lawyers if they successfully convince their immigrant clients to return home.
Our Rome correspondent Angela Giuffrida reported on the controversial proposal over the weekend:
But the commission declined to comment at this stage, saying they don’t comment on “ongoing legislative discussions.”
But after a follow-up, a commission spokesperson pointed out that “individuals subject to return procedures have a right to an effective remedy, as guaranteed by article 47 of the EU charter,” which appeared to hint at some potential legal issues if the law gets passed.
Updated
The European Commission has also insisted that there is no jet fuel shortage in the EU, despite the continuing impact of the Middle East disruption.
Commission spokesperson Eva Hrncirova said that as “part of the preparedness, we talk to the citizens and inform them … as we know the situation is not ideal” with the crisis in the Middle East.
“Our role is mainly to coordinate and to prepare for different scenarios. We have the oil coordination group that has met last week, and the group will also meet at the end of this week.
The availability of the jet fuels, obviously, is a priority, and it’s important to say that here in the European Union, we have also a significant capacity to refine the crude oil and to produce the jet fuel, so we are preparing for possible actions, but everything depends on the development of the situation.
At this stage, there are no fuel shortages in the EU.”
Asked directly if Europeans should book their summer holidays without worrying about potential disruptions, she said:
“I cannot give you such an advice from the podium. It’s totally up to you where do you want to go during the summer.”
She added there are some flexibilities that the EU could explore to help with the situation, and confirmed that the bloc’s upcoming energy package – set to be presented on Wednesday – “will address different elements that are connected to the current crisis.”
But the European Council president, António Costa, isn’t that cautious as he just posted his congratulations for Radev for his electoral win in Bulgaria.
In a social media post, he said:
“Congratulations to Rumen Radev on your outright victory in yesterday’s legislative elections in Bulgaria. It is a pleasure to welcome you back to the European Council.
As conveyed in our phone call this morning, I look forward to working together with you in the #EUCO on our shared agenda for a prosperous, autonomous and secure Europe.
I wish you all the best in your new function.”
As far as I can tell, Costa is the first EU leader to publicly congratulate Radev on his win.
Asked about Bulgaria and the new government’s potentially tricky position on Russia, the commission’s spokesperson declined to comment for now.
“My understanding is that votes are still being counted, therefore it would not be appropriate for me to offer any comment at this point,” Gill said.
The European Commission has offered a brief update after this weekend’s early talks with the incoming Magyar government in Hungary.
The commission’s deputy chief spokesperson, Olof Gill, told reporters that the meetings were “extremely constructive and positive in tone.”
He said it was “a very useful starting point for the necessary work that needs to happen, particularly in order to unblock funds for the benefit of the Hungarian people.”
Asked for the new Hungarian government’s position on Ukraine, Gill declined to offer more details, but in a telling hint he said:
“The point here is that we are engaging with the incoming Hungarian government to move forward on a range of issues that for too long have been blocked.”
Separately, Gill was also asked about the reported progress on restoring oil deliveries on the Druzhba pipeline (9:56), saying the commission “tried to fulfil a coordinating role here, a mediating role to try and move this issue forward.”
Updated
In one of the first reactions to the Bulgarian vote last night, the Kremlin has just said it was impressed by Radev’s words about pragmatic dialogue with Moscow, Reuters reported.
In full quotes reported by AFP, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said:
“Of course, the words of Mr Radev ... as well as some other European leaders about their readiness to resolve problems through dialogue, appeal to us.”
During the campaign, Radev spoke about the need to engage more closely with Russia, prompting concerns about his future government’s approach to Moscow, including on energy imports.
Updated
Meanwhile, it looks like we are likely to see government crises in Romania and Slovenia in the coming days and weeks…
Reuters reported that Romania’s Social Democrats are widely expected to withdraw their support for liberal prime minister Ilie Bolojan, likely ushering in months of political instability that will pressure debt, credit ratings and the receipt of EU funds.
Bolojan’s coalition government of four pro-European parties came together 10 months ago after a polarising presidential election in an attempt to keep the surging far right from power but they have constantly clashed over reform measures.
Reuters noted that as Bolojan has said he will not resign, the leftists would then pull their six ministers from the cabinet later this week, leaving the coalition without a parliamentary majority.
An early election would most likely see the far-right Alliance for Uniting Romanians decisively win the vote.
Meanwhile over in Slovenia, the country’s outgoing prime minister Robert Golob, whose party secured a razor-thin majority in last month’s parliamentary elections, said that he had failed to form a government and will work in the opposition.
He said he had not found a partner among the parties of the centre-right to join a potential governing coalition.
Golob’s failure to form a new government opens the door for runner-up Janez Janša, a close Trump ally, to return in his role as the country’s PM, AFP noted.
Updated
But as Eden Maclachlan reported in his correspondence from Sofia for us over the weekend, younger voters are not particularly convinced by Radev’s platform – which concerns he could prove to be another tricky partner in the bloc, like Viktor Orbán.
Here is what Eden wrote before the Sunday vote:
Compared by some to Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s recently defeated rightwing populist, Radev [was] leading in the polls, buoyed up by the support of older, rural voters who hope he can smash what he calls an “oligarchy” of corrupt veteran politicians.
For voters like Aleksandar Tanev, 22, Radev is not a credible option. The law student believes Radev, who resigned as president in order to run in this election, “is part of this same model” of politicians and “had the opportunity to use the caretaker governments to fight this mafia” as president but did not.
Dimitar Keranov, a Bulgarian fellow at the German Marshall Fund’s European resilience programme in Berlin, said voters were split along broadly generational lines.
“I don’t think [Radev] would be a straightforward vote for young Bulgarians, because I think he represents the same status quo young Bulgarians would like to see dismantled,” he said. “He’s representing the same old guard or the usual political elite.”
A victory for Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria (PB), a left-leaning but Moscow-friendly coalition, could prove another headache for Brussels and its allies just as the EU breathes a sigh of relief over Orbán’s demise.
On Wednesday, amid concern over the rising cost of living, Radev took aim at the previous government for its introduction of the euro “without asking” voters. “And now, when you pay your bills, always remember which politicians promised you that you would be in the ‘club of the rich’,” he said.
The latest results, after more than 91% of votes were counted, confirm that Radev will have an absolute majority in the new parliament as he appears to be on course for some 130 seats in the 240-seat parliament.
AFP notes that the landslide victory marks the first outright parliamentary majority for a single formation in Bulgaria since 1997 when a centre-right, pro-European grouping won.
But in a sign of tensions to come, Radev said that “a strong Bulgaria and a strong Europe need critical thinking and pragmatism.”
“Europe has fallen victim to its own ambition to be a moral leader in a world with new rules,” he told reporters.
Guess we will have to wait and see what that means in practice.
Bulgarian ex-president Rumen Radev – an EU critic who has called for renewing ties with Russia – on Sunday hailed a “victory of hope” after his formation topped the eighth parliamentary elections in five years.
Projections from polling agencies put his Progressive Bulgaria (PB) grouping at 44%, which would give him an absolute majority of at least 129 seats in the 240-seat parliament.
This morning’s partial results – after over 80% votes counted – suggest the polls were broadly correct, raising hopes for a stable government in Bulgaria.
But there was little of the international enthusiasm that we saw a week ago in Hungary, with no European leaders taking to social media to congratulate the winner just yet.
Radev, Bulgaria’s president between 2017 and 2026, is a Eurosceptic, who regularly opposed further military support for Ukraine amid continuing Russian aggression, prompting some concerns that he could replace Hungary’s Viktor Orbán as tricky partner in the European Council.
But his focus is likely to be on domestic reforms and fight against corruption, as his foreign policy remains to be properly defined. On Sunday he declared that Bulgaria “would make efforts to continue on its European path” after joining the eurozone earlier this year.
I will bring you more on this during the day.
Separately, France’s Emmanuel Macron is expected in Poland where he will meet with the prime minister, Donald Tusk, and the Nobel prize winning former leader of the Solidarity movement, Lech Wałęsa.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s Lula is in Germany, meeting with the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, for talks on trade, among other things.
Hungary’s Orbán also suggested Ukraine could restore oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline as early as today.
The issue has been at the centre of tricky Hungarian-Ukrainian relations in recent months, and if confirmed, he suggested that he would be ready to drop the Hungarian block on the EU’s €90bn loan for Ukraine – even before Péter Magyar gets in in early May.
I will keep an eye on all of that and bring you the latest here.
It’s Monday, 20 April 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.