UN to vote on Gaza stabilisation force plan that references Palestinian state

Original article by Patrick Wintour, and Jason Burke in Jerusalem

The UN security council is to vote on Monday on a US-drafted resolution to set up an international stabilisation force (ISF) in Gaza that includes a late and highly tentative addition on a future Palestinian state, added under pressure from Arab states.

A rival motion has meanwhile been tabled by Russia and China, setting up the possibility that both motions could be vetoed by one or more of the five permanent members of the security council.

The stabilisation force comes from Trump’s 20-point plan for Gaza, which also calls for the disarmament of Hamas and demilitarisation of Gaza, as well as the reconstruction of the devastated territory and its placing under the authority of a technocratic Palestinian administration answering ultimately to a “board of peace” to be chaired by the US president.

The new force, the draft says, would receive a two-year mandate under the resolution and help secure border areas, protect civilians, secure humanitarian aid corridors and work on the “permanent decommissioning of weapons from non-state armed groups”.

The US text, backed in outline by the Gulf states, France and the UK, has been the subject of intense negotiations, including the insertion of a reference to the future formation of a Palestinian state at the insistence of Saudi Arabia. It says that so long as reforms have occurred and the rebuilding of Gaza is under way, then “the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood”.

The Russian-Chinese rival text is probably closer to the true views of the Arab states on a two-state solution, but the Gulf countries know they have to work with the US text since Trump’s endorsement is necessary in order for Israel to accept the stabilisation force.

Trump wants Arab or Muslim forces to supply troops for the force, which means its mandate and the prospect of a Palestinian state must be acceptable to them.

However, it appears the US has held out against a Saudi call for the stabilisation force to be answerable to the UN, as opposed to a Trump-chaired “board of peace” as outlined under his 20-point plan.

Saudi sources said it was remarkable that Trump was backing a motion to the UN endorsing the concept of a Palestinian state. The Trump administration has largely ignored the UN or used its veto throughout the Gaza conflict.

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, faced with a backlash from within his own government over the clause, said at his weekly cabinet meeting on Sunday that he did not need encouragement from anyone to express his opposition to a Palestinian state but that the clause was necessary since “no country was eager to join the multinational force in the Gaza Strip”.

On Saturday, the far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich had called on Netanyahu to denounce the idea of a Palestinian state. Smotrich said the prime minister had “chosen silence and diplomatic disgrace” while Ben-Gvir threatened to leave his coalition.

Though both ministers were primarily rallying their own supporters before a looming election, a far-right walkout could bring down Netanyahu’s rightwing government well before the country goes to the polls, which must be by October 2026.

The Israeli defence minister, Israel Katz, and the foreign minister, Gideon Saar, also posted statements on X denouncing a Palestinian state on Sunday, without mentioning Netanyahu. “Israel will not agree to the establishment of a Palestinian terror state in the heart of the Land of Israel,” Saar wrote.

Netanyahu has long opposed a Palestinian state, saying in recent months that its creation would reward Hamas and endanger Israel’s security. Speaking to his cabinet, Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel’s opposition to a Palestinian state had “not changed one bit”.

Pressure for progress towards Palestinian statehood increased during the war in Gaza. In September, the UK, Australia and Canada formally recognised a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank, where settler violence against Palestinians has surged and Israeli politicians have raised threats of annexation.

The US draft says that as the stabilisation force establishes control and stability in Gaza, the Israeli military will withdraw. The standards and milestones that must be met for this withdrawal to occur would depend on agreement between the US, Israel, the stabilisation force and other parties.

The US, as reported by the Guardian, is however planning for the division of Gaza into a “green zone” under Israeli and international military control, where reconstruction would start, and a “red zone” to be left in ruins.

A joint statement of support for the US stabilisation force proposal has been issued by nine countries including Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan, Turkey, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, the key countries from which troops are likely to be drawn, though unease about the Trump plan remains among Muslim countries.

UAE and Jordan have both said they cannot supply troops while Israel has vetoed Turkey joining the force on the basis that Turkey is too close ideologically to Hamas.

The respective roles of the ISF – an external force – and a vetted Palestinian civilian police force is critical since the motion charges the ISF and not the police force with the delicate political task of overseeing the dismantling of Hamas weapons, the precondition for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

There are fears in Israel that the US may now compromise on its demand for Hamas to be entirely disarmed, given the massive challenges of convincing or forcing the militant Islamist organisation to give up all its weapons.