US not trying to dismantle Nato or undermine world order, says ambassador – as it happened

… and on that note, it’s a wrap for today!

• Matthew Whitaker, the US ambassador to Nato, has fiercely defended the US against criticism that the US administration’s shift in thinking about its global policies posed a challenge to the liberal international order, insisting Washington was still committed to Nato and free trade – but wanted to “balance” the historical arrangements (12:47).

• A report by the Munich Security Conference, set to take place this weekend, warned that “most of Europe is watching the United States’ descent into ‘competitive authoritarianism’ with rising concern or even horror, wondering how resilient US democracy really is” and forcing Europe to get more assertive and militarily independent from the US (11:54).

• The study also warned that the continent was entering “a prolonged era of confrontation, as Russia’s full-scale war of aggression and expanding hybrid campaign dismantle the remnants of the post-cold war cooperative security order,” with Europe no longer able to blindly rely on the US protection (12:01).

• Whitaker said that the US administration expects European allies “to be stronger and to share the burden of European security with the United States and ultimately take over the conventional defence of the European continent” (13:17).

• But Whitaker dismissed the suggestion, first floated by Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the US has set a new deadline for peace talks on Ukraine (13:23).

• The conference taking place this weekend will see some 70 heads of state and government, more than 140 government ministers, and more than 40 heads of international organisations, the organisers said (12:18, 13:40).

In other news,

• The European Union, the UK, the UN, and rights groups have condemned the sentencing of the pro-democracy activist and publisher Jimmy Lai, a British citizen who has been jailed for 20 years in Hong Kong for national security convictions that critics say are politically motivated (9:42, 10:21).

• US secretary of state Marco Rubio also called for Lai to be granted “humanitarian parole” as he protested against the sentence (15:57).

Elsewhere,

• Europe is making slow progress towards reviving its weak economy, a thinktank has reported ahead of an EU summit focused on the waning economic power of the continent (16:18).

• Nato is expected to launch a mission in the coming days that could boost its surveillance and military assets in the Arctic, following tensions between US president Donald Trump and European allies over Greenland, Reuters reported (15:05, 15:07).

• The moderate socialist António José Seguro won a resounding victory in the second round of the Portuguese presidential election on Sunday, triumphing over his far-right opponent, André Ventura, whose Chega party still managed to take a record share of the vote (10:38).

• Lviv mayor Andriy Sadovyi has warned this morning that Ukraine faces “one of the most challenging electricity situations in the past four years” as it nears the fourth anniversary of the full-scale Russian aggression later this month (9:42).

• Russia’s military is scrambling to find alternatives to Starlink satellite internet after access to the network was curtailed, disrupting a key communications system that its forces had been using illicitly on the battlefield in Ukraine (14:29).

• Nine officers from the French riot police have gone on trial in Paris accused of beating peaceful protesters who were sheltering from teargas during the “gilets jaunes” (yellow vests) anti-government demonstrations in 2018.

• Meanwhile, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, has visited a Wine Paris trade show, telling producers there that their business was a part of “France’s way of life,” as he posed with a bottle labelled “For Sure,” a reference to his recent viral moment at the World Economic Forum in Davos (16:51).

And that’s all from me, Jakub Krupa, for today.

If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com.

I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.

Finally, Norwegian police are investigating two high-profile diplomats in a corruption probe announced today as part of a widening scandal over prominent figures’ ties to late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, Reuters reported.

Mona Juul, who resigned as ambassador to Jordan and Iraq on Sunday (11:37), is suspected of gross corruption and her husband, former government minister Terje Roed-Larsen, is suspected of complicity in gross corruption, police said.

“A new investigation has been opened in connection with the Epstein files ... We are facing a comprehensive and, by all accounts, long-term investigation,” Norway’s financial crimes squad, Økokrim, said in a statement.

Juul and Roed-Larsen are cooperating with the investigation and see no merit in the accusations against them, their lawyers said, as reported by Reuters.

in Niscemi
Photographs by Alessio Mamo

For days, the 25,000 residents of the Sicilian town of Niscemi have been living on the edge of a 25-metre abyss.

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On 25 January, after torrential rain brought by Cyclone Harry, a devastating landslide ripped away an entire slope of the town, creating a 4km-long chasm. Roads collapsed, cars were swallowed, and whole sections of the urban fabric plunged into the valley below.

Dozens of houses hang precariously over the edge of the landslide, while vehicles and fragments of roadway continue to give way, hour by hour, under the strain of unstable ground.

Authorities have evacuated more than 1,600 people so far. Entire sections of the historic centre are at risk, including 17th-century churches that could slide downhill at any moment.

According to geologists and environmental experts, the landslide in Niscemi is the latest sign of how the climate emergency is reshaping the Mediterranean, where there has been indifference to decades of flawed building policies and an out-of-control model of urbanisation.

in Paris

Nine officers from the French riot police have gone on trial in Paris accused of beating peaceful protesters who were sheltering from teargas during the “gilets jaunes” (yellow vests) anti-government demonstrations in 2018.

The case at Paris’s criminal court is one of the biggest trials over alleged police violence during the unrest in 2018 and 2019, when hundreds of thousands of protesters in fluorescent jackets took to the streets over rising fuel taxes in what morphed into broader anti-government protests against the president, Emmanuel Macron.

The Paris public prosecutor had requested a criminal trial, noting that some riot police officers “armed with batons and shields” had “repeatedly struck non-hostile demonstrators” who were on the ground or “trying to come out with their hands raised”.

The officers are charged with aggravated intentional violence by a person holding public authority. If found guilty they face up to seven years in prison and a €100,000 (£87,000) fine.

The accused are expected to argue that they were operating under extreme stress and “insurrectional” conditions, after hours of being targeted with projectiles by rioters.

Meanwhile, in somewhat lighter (depending on your palate, excuse the pun) news, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, has visited a Wine Paris trade show, telling producers there that their business was a part of “France’s way of life,” AFP reported.

France’s wine sector is dealing with over-production caused by falling demand as a result of changing drinking habits, fierce competition and export difficulties.

Macron insisted that ripping up unprofitable grape vines was a necessary part of revitalising the flagging wine sector which he promised to defend.

All of that is obviously important, but the reason I’m telling you about this is because as part of his visit, he was handed a wine bottle labelled “For sure” with a pair of aviator sunglasses on the label – a reference to his viral look during the World Economic Forum in Davos last month.

In the Davos speech, he mounted a passionate defence of Europe’s place in the world, saying crucially that “having a place like Europe, which sometimes is too slow, for sure, and needs to be reformed, for sure, but which is predictable, loyal and when, well, you know that the rule of the game is just a rule of law, it’s a good place.”

(Although the Internet’s seemingly preferred and perhaps slightly mocking spelling of his “For sure” which went absolutely, absolutely, absolutely, absolutely viral was “Fo shur”.)

So, to brighten your day a bit, here’s president Macron with his “For sure” wine, clearly very chuffed – even as he now regrettably dropped the sunglasses from his look (as his eye infection has cleared).

in Brussels

Europe is making slow progress towards reviving its weak economy, a thinktank has reported ahead of an EU summit focused on the waning economic power of the continent.

EU leaders will meet in a chateau in eastern Belgium on Thursday to discuss the “urgent strategic imperative” of strengthening the single market, as set out by the invitation letter from the European Council president, António Costa.

A few days ahead of that event the European Policy Innovation Council reports that only 15% of the recommendations made by Mario Draghi in a landmark 2024 report have been implemented. Almost two-thirds remain either in progress or have not been implemented at all, reports the FT, which has seen a copy of the thinktank’s latest analysis. EPIC’s earlier Draghi trackers are available here.

The agenda-setting report by Draghi, a former Italian prime minister and European Central Bank president, set out 383 recommendations for EU institutions and member states. Without such measures, Draghi warned the EU risked a “slow and agonising decline”.

Responding to the latest review the centrist Renew group in the European parliament lamented laggardly implementation of the Draghi agenda.

It warned there were still too many internal barriers in the EU’s single market, citing International Monetary Fund research showing EU regulatory barriers are equivalent to a 44% tariff on goods and 110% on services.

The Renew Group leaders write:

“While we are rightly horrified by the prospects of new US tariffs, we seem to be strangely complacent about the ‘internal tariffs’ we self-inflict... We are in effect sanctioning our own economy.”

The Renew group calls on EU leaders to launch an “enforcement initiative” to dismantle the barriers.

But it praised an upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act, which is expected to introduce a ‘Buy European’ preference in strategic sectors. It also reiterated support for a “28th regime” – unpublished proposals for a new set of business regulations aimed at small companies and start ups.

The plan has been welcomed by business, but opposed by trade unions, who fear it will undermine labour rights.

Meanwhile, US secretary of state Marco Rubio has joined the EU in calls to release Jimmy Lai after he has been jailed for 20 years in Hong Kong on national security convictions that critics say are politically motivated.

Rubio urged the authorities to grant Lai “a humanitarian parole,” saying the sentence in his case was “an unjust and tragic conclusion to this case.”

In a statement, he said:

"The Hong Kong High Court’s decision to sentence Jimmy Lai to 20 years is an unjust and tragic conclusion to this case.

It shows the world that Beijing will go to extraordinary lengths to silence those who advocate fundamental freedoms in Hong Kong, casting aside the international commitments Beijing made in the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration.

After enduring a trial lasting two years, and detention in prison for more than five, Mr. Lai and his family have suffered enough.

The United States urges the authorities to grant Mr. Lai humanitarian parole.”

Nordic correspondent

US senator Lisa Murkowski said “it hurts my heart” that the trust between Greenland and the US, built up since the second world war, has been broken by “just a few sentences and words”.

Addressing Greenlandic people, the senator for Alaska appeared at a press conference alongside three others from the delegation, which also included Angus King of Maine, Gary Peters of Michigan and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, that arrived in Greenland on Saturday.

Speaking in Nuuk, they appeared alongside Pipaluk Lynge and Erik Jensen, members of Greenland’s foreign and security policy committee, and the actor Viggo Mortensen, a vocal Donald Trump critic.

The visit, which saw them go to the US space base in Pituffik, meet with Greenlandic politicians and a helicopter tour of the Greenland ice sheet, comes after a US senatorial delegation visited Copenhagen last month.

Murkowski said:

“To the citizens of Greenland: It hurts my heart to know how much anxiety and worry you feel in these times of uncertainty. In just a few sentences and words, the trust that has been built since the second world war has been eroded and degraded.”

The Republican senator added:

“I want to remind you that regardless of what our president says, we have a big role in Congress. And I believe there is a common interest that we must work together on, and it begins and ends with respect and dialogue.”

She also called on other members of her party to follow her example by speaking out against Trump.

“There are some members of my party who don’t want to be seen as going against Donald Trump. But I can tell you that I have had a lot of conversations with my Republican colleagues who say, ‘There’s a red line here. We don’t take over and invade Nato allies.’”

Senator King said it had been a “very productive trip” in which they had “learned a lot”.

“The US’s security interest in Greenland does not have to mean taking over the country,” he said. “The kind of activities we have seen in recent months are unnecessary.”

Peters said: “Unfortunately, we have a president who has broken trust. That is why the four of us are here today.”

He added: “My message to the people of Greenland is: know that you have many friends in the United States.”

The proposed “Arctic Sentry” name suggests putting it on par with what the alliance did in response to growing Russian threat on the eastern flank of Nato last year, when it first launched a “Baltic sentry” mission “to strengthen the protection of critical infrastructure,” and then a separate “Eastern sentry” mission in response to Russian incursions into allied territory in Poland, Romania, and Estonia.

The political signal to the audience of one – Donald Trump in the White House – appears to be clear: the European Nato members treat it very seriously, as seriously as the Russian threat in eastern Europe, and will commit resources to strengthen the region’s security as (somewhat undiplomatically) requested (or more accurately, demanded) by the US.

In the meantime, we are getting a breaking news line from Nato that the alliance is expected to launch an Arctic Sentry mission in the coming days, five sources told Reuters.

The agency says the move hopes to boost Nato’s role in the region and defuse tensions between US president Donald Trump and European allies over Greenland.

The decision could come as early as later this week with Nato ministers meeting in Brussels on Thursday (13:17), Reuters says.

And, as it happens, US vice-president JD Vance is in Armenia today, as he hopes to consolidate a peace process between the country and neighbouring Azerbaijan.

AFP notes that Vance is the most senior US official ever to visit Armenia, where he is also expected to advance a flagship project to improve road-and-rail infrastructure in the region.

If the US VP reads Rob’s story below, maybe that issue will make the agenda of his talks too?

But it’s all a sign of closer ties with Armenia and the South Caucasus more broadly. You may remember that country’s prime minister Nikol Pashinyan joined the recent inauguration of Donald Trump’s Board of Peace, hosted in Davos.

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Vance will be off to Azerbaijan next.

Separately, the UK government has been urged to re-examine a British company’s contract to export hi-tech machinery to Armenia, after the Guardian uncovered links to the supply chain for Russia’s war machine.

Sanctions experts and the chair of the House of Commons business committee questioned the government’s decision to award an export licence to Cygnet Texkimp.

The engineering company makes machines that produce carbon fibre “prepreg”, a lightweight and durable material that can be used in a wide range of civil and military applications.

The machines are understood to be undergoing final assembly at the company’s warehouse in Northwich, Cheshire, and could be just weeks away from being exported to a newly formed company in Armenia called Rydena LLC.

Rydena was established two years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by former executives of a company that has emerged as one of the Kremlin’s important military suppliers.

Cygnet said it “undertook detailed end-user checks required by export controls and received full export approval” from the government, while Rydena insisted it does no business with Russian clients.

Experts said the contract raises concerns about the robustness of UK export controls designed to prevent British companies unwittingly taking part in the destruction of Ukraine.

Russian affairs reporter

Meanwhile, Russia’s military is scrambling to find alternatives to Starlink satellite internet after access to the network was curtailed, disrupting a key communications system that its forces had been using illicitly on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Ukraine said last week that Starlink terminals being used by Russian troops had been deactivated after talks between its defence minister and Elon Musk, whose company SpaceX operates the satellite network.

Ukrainian officials said the move had already begun to affect Russian operations, including the use of drones.

Moscow had come to rely on thousands of contraband Starlink terminals smuggled into Russia, often through central Asia, to keep units connected along the frontline. The system allowed Russian forces to coordinate movements and drone strikes in areas where military radios were unreliable or easily jammed.

Russia has no homegrown alternative that comes close in terms of speed, coverage or ease of use. Ukraine says Russian units had started fitting drones with Starlink terminals, improving their accuracy and making them harder to disrupt electronically.

Musk said last week that efforts made to block Russian use of Starlink had had an effect. “Looks like the steps we took to stop the unauthorised use of Starlink by Russia have worked,” he wrote on X.

The move was an early victory for Ukraine’s new defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, given Musk’s past reluctance to be drawn too deeply into the conflict and comments often seen as favourable to Moscow.

It remains unclear how far the change will affect Russian forces on the battlefield. The shutdown, however, has prompted anger and frustration among pro-war Russian military bloggers who are closely embedded with frontline units.

I think we got a good taster of what sort of policy discussions and themes are going to come up this weekend as key EU, US security and foreign policy experts meet in Munich.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio, fresh from his Olympic appearance in Italy, will be the highest US representative at the event and is expected to deliver a speech at some point on Saturday.

Doubt it will be quite as combative, or “provocative” as Whitaker put it, as that JD Vance speech last year, but make sure to save the date and follow our coverage from Munich over the weekend.

US Nato ambassador Whitaker also talks about the US view of the European Union, which he jokes is “my favourite thing to complain about … in response to Europeans complaining about the United States.”

“We need the EU to simplify. We would call deregulation. You call it simplification. Whatever you want to call it, you’re going to have to encourage capital formation, risk taking,” he says.

“The types of things that are just in the American bloodstream, we’re going to have to see that happen not only in the defence technology, which is what I know the best, but just in, in, in technology generally.”

He says Europe loses too much talent globally – including to the US – and needs to get better at harnessing it or it is “going to be left behind”.

US Nato ambassador Matthew Whitaker also denies the suggestion that the US has set a new deadline for peace talks on Ukraine.

Whitaker says “that June deadline was mentioned by president Zelenskyy,” and adds “I don’t think that is anything that the United States has put out there.”

“We want the fighting to end. We want both sides to come together and agree to a peace deal. We’d like it sooner rather than later, and … we just want … to see the suffering and the killing end in Ukraine.”

He added that deadlines tend to be “very dangerous” in this setting, adding:

“We want a peace deal done.

I think we’ll just get this done as soon as it’s ready to get done. But ultimately, both sides, the Russians and the Ukrainians, are going to have to agree to any deal that’s hammered out.”

There are some more good lines coming from US Nato ambassador, Matthew Whitaker, as he gets pushed on the US intentions on Europe’s security and defence during the MSC ‘kick-off’ briefing.

He gets asked about why US defence secretary Pete Hegseth is going to skip this week’s Nato ministerial on Thursday, and he says that allies should not read too much into this, as “we have a big world and, only one secretary of war and only one secretary of state, and they have a lot of places to be.”

He says the undersecretary, Elbridge Colby, is “the perfect person” to talk about the US defence strategy and the US view on Europe “right now and going forward” to “talk about capabilities that may need to be ultimately transitioned out of Europe and replaced by European capabilities.”

He says the US expects Europe “to equalise, as we expect them to be stronger and to share the burden of European security with the United States and ultimately take over the conventional defence of the European continent, together with the United States overarching nuclear umbrella.”

Expect red lights to go off (again) in some countries, particularly in central and eastern Europe, as they read these quotes above.

Munich Security Conference’s Wolfgang Ischinger also gives a preview of what’s to come this week, saying he “certainly hopes that this coming weekend will demonstrate that Ukraine deserves to be at the top of the agenda for a variety of reasons.”

He says Russia continues to “pretend to be willing to negotiate” on Ukraine, while it “continues to … territories the civilian population” instead, and he says this remains the biggest challenge for Europe “in a long time.”

He picks up on Whitaker’s comments earlier too, and says he hopes the MSC will offer an opportunity for Europe to discuss how to move on from discussions to taking “more credible, meaningful decisions on foreign policy and security.”

“I think the United States is giving us the best ever reason to take these questions seriously,” he says.

But he also pointedly says that the US interest in Greenland has proven to be “a public relations disaster,” dramatically affecting “the respect that the US deserves to enjoy in Europe.”

He’s right there: a recent YouGov poll showed that the US president’s attempted Greenland grab has succeeded in turning Europeans solidly against his country, the pollster’s latest survey found.

Large majorities in Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Great Britain all declared an unfavourable opinion.

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US ambassador to Nato Matthew Whitaker is responding to some of the report’s findings now, saying he “completely rejects everything I just heard,” after the Munich Security Conference report editors warned that the greatest challenge to the liberal international order is “coming from within” through the dramatic shift in the US administration’s thinking about its alliances (11:54).

But Whitaker insists the US does not want to dismantle Nato or undermine the existing alliances as implied by the report’s authors, but merely to “balance” the way the defence burden lies on different Nato countries by pushing European allies to “do more and to be capable and strong, because that strength is what guarantees the peace.”

“That’s the first thing I reject; we’re trying to make Nato stronger, not to withdraw or reject Nato, but make it work like it was intended as an alliance of 32 strong and capable allies,” he said.

Whitaker also said that on trade, the US wanted to challenge the “unfair” trade arrangement with Europe, which “turned into Europe taking advantage and running huge trade surplus with the US.”

He also said that the US was frustrated that “there is a lot of discussion and not a lot of action” in Europe, with allies spending more time to discuss issues rather than address them.

Whitaker says that on security, the European partners need to actually step up their defence spending and show they can “follow through” on their promises, including the new Nato spending targets.

He then gets pushed on Greenland, and insists the US interest in the territory is only about ensuring that Greenland – whether as part of Denmark or an independent country in the future – needs to be able to defend itself from Russia and China.

“The Chinese have taken two runs, at least at Greenland; one through the ports trying to invest in the ports and second, through trying to invest in the airport, and so these are real issues,” he claims (something that has been repeatedly questioned by the Danish officials.)

He then distances himself a bit from Trump’s aggressive rhetoric there, saying that he learned during the first Trump administration that “responding to every single Truth Social or tweet by president Trump would be a full-time job,” but insists the underlying security analysis is sound.

Former German ambassador to the US, Wolfgang Ischinger, is now giving a quick briefing on what to expect from the Munich Security Conference this weekend.

He says there will be some 70 heads of state and government, more than 140 government ministers, and more than 40 heads of international organisations.

The proceedings will be opened by German prime minister Friedrich Merz in his first MSC speech in this role, as he is expected to “set the tone” for the forum.

Ischinger also confirms some names of the top decision-makers attending, including French president Emmanuel Macron, UK prime minister Keir Starmer, Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk, and Denmark’s prime minister Mette Frederiksen.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Nato secretary general Mark Rutte will also be present.

It was earlier announced that the US delegation will be led by US secretary of state Marco Rubio.

In its section on Europe, the Munich Security Conference report has also warned that the continent was entering “a prolonged era of confrontation, as Russia’s full-scale war of aggression and expanding hybrid campaign dismantle the remnants of the post-cold war cooperative security order.”

It also added that:

“Washington’s gradual retreat from its traditional role as Europe’s primary security guarantor – reflected in wavering support for Ukraine and threatening rhetoric on Greenland – is heightening Europe’s sense of insecurity and exposing its unfinished transition from security consumer to security provider.”

The report also included a series of stark security warnings, noting that “some intelligence agencies estimate that Russia could reconstitute its forces for a ‘regional war’ in the Baltic Sea area within two years of a potential ceasefire in Ukraine – and for a ‘local’ one against a single neighbour within six months.”

It noted that “the first signs of this widening of the battlefield are already visible,” with “a growing number of suspected Russian incidents, including sabotage, vandalism, cyber-attacks, and arson.”

“Analysts widely view these operations as deliberate efforts by Moscow to probe Europe’s defences, sow division, intimidate publics, and weaken support for Ukraine by diverting attention toward domestic security. Europe now faces the challenge of proactively deterring further provocations while avoiding inadvertent escalation.”

The study also pointedly warned that Europe’s reliance on US security was posing new risks as the Trump administration has been dramatically changing its priorities and shifting away from Europe.

“European leaders have long refrained from overt criticism of US policies. Instead, they have pursued a dual strategy: striving to keep Washington engaged at almost any cost while cautiously preparing for greater autonomy. …

Recent confrontations over Greenland, in turn, suggest that Europe’s strategy of accommodation may be reaching its limits.”

Setting out its recommendations for the continent, the report said:

“Given the urgency of these tasks and the limits of consensus-based decision-making, progress will depend on courageous leadership coalitions.

Smaller avant-gardes, such as the Weimar Plus countries (France, Germany, Poland, and the UK) or the European Group of Five (the former plus Italy), will be essential to drive defense industrial consolidation, articulate a coherent European vision for Ukraine, and prepare the EU for enlargement. These steps will involve sharing costs and political risk.

But continued hesitation would leave Europe exposed in a gray zone between competing spheres of influence – steadily eroding its ability to shape its own destiny.”

Diplomatic editor

Europe has come to the painful realisation that it needs to be more assertive and more militarily independent from an authoritarian US administration that no longer shares a commitment to liberal democratic norms and values, a report prepared by the Munich Security Conference asserts.

The report sets the scene for an all-out ideological confrontation with the Trump White House at the high-level annual meeting of security policy specialists, which starts on Friday.

In a now infamous speech to last year’s MSC, the US vice-president, JD Vance, claimed European elites were suppressing free speech and “opening the floodgates” to mass migration. The address marked the moment Europe realised the Trump administration would no longer be a reliable trading and security partner.

Since then European leaders and Donald Trump’s team have waged a series of running battles over topics including the US push to force Ukraine to make territorial concessions to Russia, Trump’s threats to seize Greenland, and a series of protectionist US measures ranging from tariff barriers to inward investment bans.

Vance is not expected in Munich this year, but the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, and a congressional delegation are scheduled to attend.

Polling commissioned for the report shows Europeans are increasingly willing to operate without US leadership and say it is no longer necessary.

The MSC report accuses Trump of having a lust for destruction and of siding with Vladimir Putin.

“Most of Europe is watching the United States’ descent into ‘competitive authoritarianism’ with rising concern or even horror, wondering how resilient US democracy really is,” the report says.

The MSC report suggests European leaders need to adapt to the techniques of the Trump administration and be more daring in how they make decisions and communicate.

“Effectively pushing back against the demolition men requires much more political courage and innovative thought. The actors defending international rules and institutions need to be just as bold as the actors who seek to destroy them,” it says.

The report adds that “relying on sterile communiqués, predictable conferences, and cautious diplomacy” in a world where the opponents have become more ruthless and much more innovative is a recipe for failure.

Elsewhere, a Norwegian ambassador who was involved in Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts in the 1990s and most recently served in Jordan has resigned as she faces scrutiny over her contacts with Jeffrey Epstein, the country’s foreign ministry said.

The ministry announced Mona Juul’s resignation on Sunday evening, days after she was suspended as Norway’s ambassador to Jordan. That followed reports that Epstein left the children of Juul and her husband, Terje Rød-Larsen, $10m in a will drawn up shortly before his death by suicide in a New York prison in 2019, AP reported.

Foreign minister Espen Barth Eide said Juul’s decision was “correct and necessary.” Her contact with the convicted sex offender showed a “serious lapse in judgment,” he said, adding that “the case makes it difficult to restore the trust that the role requires.”

A ministry investigation into Juul’s knowledge of and contact with Epstein will continue, and Juul will continue discussions with the ministry “so that the matter can be clarified,” Eide said.

AP noted that the latest batch of Epstein files has cast an unflattering spotlight on several prominent Norwegian figures. Crown Princess Mette-Marit on Friday issued an apology “to all of you whom I have disappointed” after documents offered more details of her relationship with Epstein.

As reported last week, the country’s economic crimes unit has also opened a corruption investigation into former prime minister Thorbjørn Jagland (Europe Live, Friday).

Meanwhile, Germany has charged a Ukrainian national in connection with allegations of a plot linked to Russian intelligence to detonate parcel packages in Europe, the country’s prosecutors said in a statement.

The prosecutors allege that the man, identified only as Yevhen B., worked with the Russian intelligence services and two other people to send GPS-enabled tracking devices from Cologne to Ukraine to “gather information about shipping routes and transport procedures at the parcel service provider and later to send packages containing incendiary devices.”

“These packages were meant to ignite in Germany or elsewhere en route to parts of Ukraine not occupied by Russia, causing as much damage as possible to undermine the public’s sense of security,” they said.

Several EU leaders have taken to social media this morning to pass their congratulations to the Portuguese president-elect Seguro, praising him for big win over his far-right rival.

European Council president António Costa, who beat Seguro to be the Socialist Party’s candidate for prime minister in 2015, said:

“I congratulate António José Seguro on his election as President of the Portuguese Republic and wish him every success in the exercise of his mandate. Today, the Portuguese people demonstrated their commitment to democracy, reaffirming Portugal as a pillar of European humanism.”

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said:

“Congratulations, António José Seguro, on your election as President of Portugal. The Portuguese citizens have spoken and, in the face of devastation caused by the storms, demonstrated remarkable democratic resilience. Portugal’s voice for our shared European values remains strong.”

Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sánchez said:

“Congratulations, António José Seguro, the new President of Portugal! Social democracy advances with your victory.”

A number of other national leaders, including Romania’s president Nicușor Dan and Croatia’s Andrej Plenković, also sent their congratulations.

Meanwhile in Portugal, the moderate socialist António José Seguro won a resounding victory in the second round of the country’s presidential election on Sunday, triumphing over his far-right opponent, André Ventura, whose Chega party still managed to take a record share of the vote.

The vote to elect a successor to the outgoing president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, was marked by a cross-party push to head off the prospect of a Chega victory, with some senior rightwing figures throwing their weight behind the centre-left candidate to keep Ventura from entering the presidential palace.

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Seguro won 66.8% of votes to Ventura’s 33.2% in the election, which went ahead despite weeks of disruption caused by deadly storms.

“The response the Portuguese people gave today, their commitment to freedom, democracy, and the future of our country, leaves me naturally moved and proud of our nation,” said Seguro.

Ventura, a former football pundit, columnist, seminarian and novelist who founded Chega seven years ago, said the result showed that “the message from the Portuguese people is clear”, adding that Chega was now the main party on the right and would “soon be governing Portugal”.

Earlier on Sunday, he had accused “the entire political system” of uniting against him.

Media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF) also condemned the 20-year jail sentence handed to Jimmy Lai, urging the UK and others “to intervene” in the case.

“Today, the curtain falls on press freedom in Hong Kong. We are outraged by the harsh sentences handed down to Jimmy Lai,” RSF director general Thibaut Bruttin said in a statement, reported by AFP.

“Democracies, such as the UK and the US, must stop prioritising the normalisation of relations with China and instead exert pressure on the Chinese regime and Hong Kong authorities to ensure that Jimmy Lai and all other journalists are released from prison,” he added.

Sebastien Lai, Jimmy Lai’s son, has just been speaking to BBC News, offering his first reaction to his father’s overnight sentence.

He said:

“It’s obviously heartbreaking, but unfortunately it’s not unexpected. Look, I think that what was unexpected was that it took five years to get to this point. The last five years, my father has spent in solitary confinement in the maximum security prison.”

He warned that with his father’s age and health conditions, this could essentially be a “life sentence.”

“Unfortunately, time is running out for my father. The clock is ticking at his age, given the conditions and he’s got heart issues. He’s lost ten kilos over the last year alone. Time is not on his side.”

He added that:

“In a time when we’re talking about closer relationships to China, a normalisation of relationships … despite all the national security concerns that we have, rightly so, in this country … if they can’t even put a 78 year old man who’s guilty of nothing more than giving all that he has to stand up for freedom and liberty for the people of Hong Kong on a plane and sending him back here now, especially given his deteriorating health, that tells you all you need to know about the relation that we have with China.”

Lviv mayor Andriy Sadovyi has warned this morning that Ukraine faces “one of the most challenging electricity situations in the past four years” as it nears the fourth anniversary of the full-scale Russian aggression later this month.

The latest overnight Russian strikes killed at least three people in Odesa and Kharkiv, local authorities reported.

Ukraine is seeking to accelerate the peace talks with Russia and the US, after the country’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed that the US administration has given Ukraine and Russia yet another deadline to reach a peace settlement, and is now proposing the war should end by June.

Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said on Sunday that Kyiv was “ready to speed up peace efforts,” as he thanked for the US leadership on the issue.

“It is up to Russia to demonstrate its willingness to advance diplomacy instead of war. So far, we can only see new strikes and disregard for peace efforts,” he said.

He also repeated his call to put more pressure on Moscow “so that it starts treating peace efforts seriously.”

Elsewhere, we will be looking at reactions to last night’s presidential vote in Portugal, and other stories breaking across the continent.

It’s Monday, 9 February 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.

Good morning.

The European Union has called for the “immediate and unconditional” release of the Hong Kong pro-democracy figure, Jimmy Lai, after he was sentenced to 20 years in prison, the harshest penalty handed down for national security offences in Hong Kong.

In a strongly worded statement released just now, a spokesperson for the EU’s diplomatic service said the EU “deplores the heavy prison sentence” and called for his immediate release, “also in consideration of his advanced age and health condition.”

She added:

“The politically motivated prosecution of Jimmy Lai and the former Apple Daily executives and journalists harms Hong Kong’s reputation.

The EU calls on the Hong Kong authorities to restore confidence in press freedom in Hong Kong, one of the pillars of its historic success as an international financial centre, and to stop prosecuting journalists.”