Can Europe prevent an unjust ‘peace’ in Ukraine – and what is at stake if it fails?

Original article by Katherine Butler, associate editor, Europe

With Ukraine’s future back on the geopolitical carving block, Europe is facing its own moment of truth. Is it ready to defend Kyiv against the imposition of a lopsided “peace” that rewards Vladimir Putin and undermines the entire continent’s security?

Not for the first time, European governments were left in the dark about secret US-backed proposals to end Russia’s war. Leaked to the media last week, the latest incendiary 28-point plan was so slanted in Russia’s favour that there are suspicions it was partly drafted in the Kremlin (complete with clunkily translated Russian syntax).

The terms of this shockingly punitive plan would freeze battle lines but require Kyiv to cede swathes of territory that it still controls; drastically curb the size of its army; accept amnesty for Russian atrocities and war crimes; and stay out of Nato for good. No wonder President Zelenskyy told his compatriots that it left them facing one of the most difficult moments of their history.

Nonetheless, in a hurry to claim credit for peace – seemingly at any price – Donald Trump gave Ukraine an ultimatum: sign off on Russia’s shopping list by Thanksgiving or, it was implied, risk losing US intelligence and military aid: a not-so festive deadline.

The days since have felt like a repetition of August, when Trump rolled out the red carpet for Putin in Alaska and left sidelined European leaders dashing to the White House en masse, flanking Zelenskyy, to limit the damage.

This time, despite Trump upbraiding the Ukraine president for “zero gratitude”, emergency talks in Geneva have reportedly tweaked the plan to “uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty”. Trump has softened his language (and deadline), claiming that negotiations with Ukraine are bearing fruit and his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, will soon be back in Moscow.

If a more palatable deal is in the offing, it may be because France, Germany and the UK have helped Ukraine to push back. It is not only about solidarity: these countries may be required to put “boots on the ground” to uphold an eventual deal.

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Foot in the door

There is, however, no reason to believe that Moscow will buy into any plan that doesn’t involve Kyiv’s capitulation – or even that Russia seeks to end the war. “Putin sees no problem with continuing the war,” Tatiana Stanovaya, of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told the Guardian’s Russian affairs reporter, Pjotr Sauer.

At such a perilous moment then, the onus is more than ever on Europe to demand that Ukraine gets a just peace – both morally and out of self-interest for the security of Ukraine’s European neighbours.

But how can Europe prevent a US stitch-up, particularly if Moscow maintains its most unreasonable territorial demands and Trump loses patience with Zelenskyy? Getting ahead of any Trump/Putin summit is key, say analysts. Ukraine’s European backers need be clearer with Trump that Ukraine’s security is Europe’s security.

“Europeans complain about not being at the table, but they have agency,” Jana Kobzova, a Ukraine expert with the European Council for Foreign Relations, said on the thinktank’s podcast. “They can put their foot in the door and say these are the things that we are not going to tolerate.”

Europe is already shouldering most of the cost of Ukraine’s resistance, even if it has been too hesitant, divided, or complacent to give Kyiv the negotiating cards it needs.

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Rouble roulette

The most game-changing piece of European leverage could turn out to a neuralgic (and Belgium says legally iffy) EU plan for a €140bn “reparations loan” for Ukraine, secured on billions in Russian central bank deposits, frozen in the west by EU sanctions. The confiscated assets (mostly held in a repository in Belgium) could transform Ukraine’s near-bankrupt status and help it win the war. But the proposal also stipulated using $100bn of these Russian assets for investment, with the US keeping 50% of the profits. Now the EU must urgently decide if it wants to move on the assets first, or dig deep to find alternative cash.

Brussels suspects that Russia’s economy is in a worse state than it will acknowledge, thanks to such measures as a new EU ban on Russian gas imports. “They [Moscow] want us to believe they can continue this war for ever. This is not true,” Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative and former Estonian PM, told the BBC.

The stakes are perilous for Europe if Moscow gets away with changing borders by force. “If Ukraine capitulates as per Russia’s plan, war in the rest of Europe is one step closer, and Europeans understand this. So it’s not out of the goodness of their heart that they would stick with Ukraine, but because they understand that their own security is at stake,” Nathalie Tocci, director of the Italian Institute for International Affairs and a Guardian Europe contributor, told me.

For Tocci, the most likely medium-term scenario is not Ukrainian surrender, but one in which the US and Russia (egged on by US hawks, including JD Vance) reach a bilateral deal, leaving Europe to stick with Ukraine.

“In this scenario, Europeans should stop deluding themselves that they can work with Trump on Ukraine. They should warmly thank the US president and persuade him to step aside and place his bets on another conflict to get his Nobel peace prize. Either way, the war goes on for now”.

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