Oil prices fall to two-week lows – as it happened

Continuing with financial news, the US dollar slipped at the start of Asian trading on Monday as hopes of a deal reopening the Hormuz strait pushed oil prices below $100 a barrel, even as the Trump administration played down the chances of reaching an agreement with Iran soon.

Against the yen, the US dollar was down 0.2% at 158.87 yen, while the euro rose 0.3% to $1.1642 and the British pound gained 0.4% to $1.3485.

Many global markets are closed for holidays on Monday, thinning liquidity across the region.

Reuters also reports that the Australian dollar advanced 0.4% to $0.7160, while New Zealand’s added 0.5% to $0.5877.

Oil markets tumbled, meanwhile, with Brent crude prices falling 5.1% to $98.29 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate down 5% at $91.76 a barrel.

Traders expressed cautious scepticism over whether a peace deal would stick.

“Markets have become conditioned to be incredibly patient on a tangible breakthrough, but the base case of a deal remains firm, with the weekend news providing further conviction, even if the timing remains unclear,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd in Melbourne.

In case you missed this earlier, Donald Trump has had to defend himself against criticism from fellow Republicans over the potential Iran deal after news of it dismayed party hawks.

As they called it a disaster and questioned why the US president launched the conflict in the first place, Trump claimed on social media that his nuclear deal with Tehran would be “the exact opposite” of the one agreed by Barack Obama, which Trump pulled out of in 2018.

The 2015 deal limited Iran’s nuclear enrichment in return for sanctions relief.

Trump announced on Saturday US time that a peace deal with Iran was “largely negotiated” and that the “final aspects and details” of a memorandum of understanding were still being discussed and “will be announced shortly”, with the strait of Hormuz reopening as part of the deal.

But as Patrick Wintour reports, Trump said the following day that he was not rushing into a deal, and that “both sides must take their time to get it right … There can be no mistakes!”

The president also insisted “the US blockade of Iran’s ports will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed”.

“Nobody has seen” the deal “or knows what it is”, the US president later added. “It isn’t even fully negotiated yet. So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about.”

Facing the mounting criticism from inside his own party, Trump insisted: “I don’t make bad deals!”

Australian members of a flotilla that tried to deliver aid to Gaza have been welcomed home in emotional airport scenes after being freed from detention in Israel.

Eleven Australians were among 400 people detained by Israel last week in international waters west of Cyprus.

The broader group of flotilla participants allege they suffered abuse at the hands of Israeli forces, such as broken limbs, sexual assaults, tasers to the face and being injected with unknown substances.

Seven of the Australian contingent arrived in Sydney on Monday morning, while the rest were due to arrive in Melbourne and Brisbane, reports Australian Associated Press.

Walking out into a Sydney airport hall, the flotilla participants returned triumphant with fists and peace signs held high.

A large contingent of supporters – including family, friends and federal senators – greeted them on arrival with rapturous applause and chants of “free, free Palestine”.

The Israeli ambassador to Australia, Hillel Newman, has claimed the detained flotilla members were handled with “great sensitivity”. He rejected claims of violence and sexual abuse.

As well as oil prices falling, US stock futures rose on Monday at the prospect of a deal to end the Iran war, although uncertainty over when the strait of Hormuz would open kept enthusiasm in check.

Nasdaq futures were 0.89% higher and S+P futures were up 0.6%.

Nick Twidale, the chief market analyst at ATFX Global, expected the market to embrace more risk on Monday but not to surge higher until there was confirmation the Hormuz strait would reopen.

He said:

We will need to see an agreement out in place in the coming sessions as we know there are still some major sticking points.”

Reuters also reports that Japan’s Nikkei was poised for a strong start to Monday’s session. The most important issues for financial markets are when the Hormuz strait would reopen, Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategists said in a note.

Iran has indicated its reported understanding with the US to halt the regional war would include Lebanon, but Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that Donald Trump had reaffirmed his support for Israel’s right “to defend itself against threats on all fronts, including in Lebanon”.

Israel’s military chief, Lieut Gen Eyal Zamir, said that “we continue to strike Hezbollah across all dimensions ... the security of civilians and the safety of our forces remain paramount”, a statement cited by AFP said.

The nominal ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon – brokered by the US – was recently extended by 45 days.

Israeli strikes pounded south and east Lebanon on Sunday despite a ceasefire as Hezbollah’s chief expressed hope for an agreement between Iran and the US to end the Middle East war that includes Lebanon.

Lebanon’s health ministry said two people including a paramedic from the Hezbollah-affiliated Islamic Health Committee were killed on Sunday in Israeli raids.

The ministry raised the overall toll in the war since 2 March to 3,123 killed, AFP is reporting.

A day earlier 11 people including six women and a child were killed in a single strike in the south’s Sir al-Gharbiyeh, the ministry said on Sunday, decrying a “massacre”.

Israel’s military has continued to hit what it says are Hezbollah targets in Lebanon despite a nominal ceasefire since 17 April.

The Iran-backed Hezbollah, meanwhile, claimed more than 20 attacks on Israeli troops in southern Lebanon on Sunday.

As reported earlier, Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said he hoped the agreement between Iran and the US would be finalised and “accordingly that we too will be among those included in this agreement” on a full cessation of hostilities.

The liberation of frozen assets belonging to Iran have become an important part of the US-Iran negotiations, with Iran pushing for an unfreezing of assets worldwide.

But why are countries around the world temporarily holding onto Iran’s assets?

Since 1979, sanctions on Iran have crippled its economy. Throughout the years, the justification for US-imposed sanctions has shifted. At first, the US sanctioned Iran due to the 1979 hostage crisis. But in recent years following, sanctions have been amplified over the country’s nuclear program.

The sanctions placed on Iran have prevented the country from accessing its assets, like money from oil sales, frozen by various countries.

Multiple different countries are holding Iran’s frozen assets, including Japan, Iraq, China, India and the US. Experts estimate the frozen Iranian assets are worth around $100bn.

When the US-Israel war on Iran began, Iran pushed for assets to be released before any negotiations could begin.

Now, the unfreezing of those assets seem to be key parts of the negotiations between the US and Iran. Various reports claim that the unfreezing of assets has become a sticking point in the negotiations.

Donald Trump encouraged Arab leaders to sign on to the Abraham Accords on Saturday during a conversation about the Iran deal, Axios reports.

The Arab and Muslim leaders were surprised by the US president’s request and stayed silent on the call, prompting Trump to jokingly ask if the leaders were still there.

The Abraham Accords, brokered by the first Trump administration, sought to normalize relations between Israel and some Arab and Muslim nations.

During Saturday’s call with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain, Trump told them that if a deal to end the US-Israel war in Iran was achieved, he would like for the nations to sign onto the accords.

Currently, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Qatar do not have diplomatic relations with Israel.

The Trump-brokered accords between Israel, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, “proved to be dangerously counterproductive, with Israeli-Gulf military cooperation leading to more risky and provocative behavior”, according to a recent Foreign Policy magazine piece written by Matt Duss, an analyst with the Center for International Policy and former foreign policy adviser to Bernie Sanders.

“Far from promoting peace and stability, the Abraham Accords laid the groundwork for a new era of violence, providing political cover for genocide in Gaza and enabling a reckless war against Iran,” Duss added.

Foreign ministers from eight Arab-Islamic nations have condemned the actions of Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Israeli security minister, after he posted a video of detained Gaza flotilla activists.

The video showed the activists, who intended to bring humanitarian aid to Gaza, kneeling with their hands bound.

The eight nations – Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Indonesia and Pakistan – said in a statement: “Ben-Gvir’s deliberate public humiliation of detainees is a disgraceful assault on human dignity and a clear violation of Israel’s obligations under international law, including international humanitarian law, and international human rights law.”

US secretary of state Marco Rubio told The New York Times an agreement with Iran had garnered regional support but a nuclear deal couldn’t be achieved “in 72 hours on the back of a napkin”.

His comments came after Donald Trump told his negotiators “not to rush into a deal” with Iran to end the three-month war.

Rubio said on Sunday: “We’re not kicking it till later. Nuclear talks are highly technical matters. You can’t do a nuclear thing in 72 hours on the back of a napkin.

“So right now, we have seven or eight countries in the region that are endorsing this approach, and we’re prepared to move forward on this approach.”

Trouble may be brewing for the US-Iran deal as parties work to finalize an agreement. According to Al Jazeera English correspondent Ali Hashem, the US may be attempting to retreat on two key negotiating items: unfreezing Iranian assets and the extent of a ceasefire in Lebanon.

According to Hashem’s Iranian source, Israel seems to be pressuring the US to include language that would allow for further Israeli military operations in Lebanon. Iran is insistent on the ceasefire extending to Lebanon, as well.

“Tehran has informed all mediators, including Pakistan, that it will not sign the memorandum unless all clauses are fully agreed and guaranteed,” Hashem reports. “The overall picture suggests Tehran increasingly views Washington as backing away from earlier understandings reached through mediators.”

Naim Qassem, the chief of Hezbollah, said on Sunday he hoped the Iran agreement would be completed soon and include Hezbollah in the terms.

“God willing, this agreement will be finalized and there are signs of its completion, and accordingly that we too will be among those included in this agreement – an agreement of a full cessation of hostilities,” he said in a televised address, according to AFP.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said on Sunday that Donald Trump said he supported Israel’s fight against Hezbollah.

Axios and CBS report that the agreement with Iran is not expected to be signed today, with an anonymous senior Trump official telling Axios there are a number of details that still need to be finalized.

The senior official also said that the Iranian government at the moment moves slowly and that it may take several days for the agreement to go through all the approvals.

The chief of the Lebanese Hezbollah group said their disarmament is unacceptable, amounting to “annihilation”, according to the AFP news service.

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said he and Trump agreed any final Iran deal must end “nuclear threat entirely”.

“President Trump and I agreed that any final agreement with Iran must eliminate the nuclear threat entirely. This means dismantling Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities and removing enriched nuclear material from its territory,” Netanyahu said in a statement, referring to a conversation between the two leaders on Saturday night.

Drop Site News this weekend reported that a senior Iranian official said Israel is attempting to undermine the deal.

“Israel is currently undertaking its final extensive efforts and applying considerable pressure to disrupt the formation of this agreement,” the senior official told the outlet. “We hope that the US administration will make its decision independently of external influence and in favor of the broader collective interests of all parties involved.”

Lebanon’s health ministry said an Israeli airstrike in the country’s south on Saturday killed 11 people, including six women and a child, despite a supposed ceasefire.

“The Israeli enemy strike on the town of Sir al-Gharbiyeh in the Nabatieh district resulted in a massacre whose final toll is 11 dead including a child and six women, and nine wounded including four children and a woman,” the ministry said in a statement.

We have not been able to independently verify any of this information yet.

In his Truth Social post, Trump said former president Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, was one of the “worst” deals the US had ever made. He promised that whatever agreement he will reach with Iran will be far superior.

Trump wrote: “It was a direct path to Iran developing a Nuclear Weapon. Not so with the transaction currently being negotiated with Iran by the Trump Administration - THE EXACT OPPOSITE, in fact!”

Under the JCPOA, international sanctions were lifted in exchange for limitations on Tehran’s nuclear programme.

As my colleague Oliver Holmes reports in this story, in 2018 Trump upset his European allies by unilaterally taking the US out of the deal and reinstating sanctions. He disliked the pact and was discouraged from diplomacy by Israel. As a result of the US withdrawal Tehran began stepping up its nuclear programme.

Now, after launching an unprovoked attack on Iran in February, Trump appears to be chasing a deal along the same contours as the JCPOA – and may even be offered worse terms.

News of the potential US-Iran deal triggered dismay among Republican hawks, who had spent years calling for US military action against Iran, and deriding the 2015 deal to limit Iran’s nuclear enrichment in return for sanctions relief negotiated during the Obama administration.

Trump withdrew from that international deal, known as the joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA), in 2018.

Mike Pompeo, who served as CIA director and secretary of state during Trump’s first term, denounced the current proposed agreement as too close to what Barack Obama’s negotiators had achieved and a boon to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

“The deal being floated with Iran seems straight out of the Wendy Sherman-Robert Malley-Ben Rhodes playbook: Pay the IRGC to build a WMD program and terrorize the world,” Pompeo wrote on social media, referring to Obama’s chief negotiators.

The alternative, Pompeo added, is “straightforward: open the damned strait. Deny Iran access to money. Take out enough Iranian capability so it cannot threaten our allies in the region.”

Malley responded: “Not quite the path Wendy, Ben or I would have taken. But if this deal brings an end to an unlawful, unjustifiable war, to the senseless loss of life and destruction and to the cascading global economic fallout, I am quite sure we’d willingly accept it over the alternative.”

You can read more here:

A Bahraini court sentenced nine defendants to life in prison and two others to three years in jail for collaborating with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to carry out what it described as “hostile and terrorist acts” against Bahrain, the state news agency said, Reuters reports.

The defendants were involved in gathering information on sensitive sites and facilitating related financial transfers, the statement said.

Bahrain’s interior ministry said on 9 May that it had arrested 41 people it said were linked to the IRGC. The ministry said security authorities had uncovered a group tied to the IRGC while public prosecutor investigations also involved cases related to sympathy with Iranian attacks.

Sources have told Reuters the proposed framework for peace would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement, which can be extended.

Two Pakistani sources told the news agency that, according to the proposed memorandum, the Strait would be opened immediately after the US lifted its blockade. Marco Rubio said that, if the outline was agreed on, it would mean “completely open straits”, and “without tolls”.

The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency said any changes in navigation through the strait of Hormuz were conditional on implementation of other commitments by the US. It also said some Iranian funds that have been frozen globally as part of sanctions must be released in the first phase of the deal.

One of the Pakistani sources said if the US accepted the memorandum, further talks could take place after the Muslim Eid holiday ends next Friday.

The Times of Israel is reporting that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will convene a “limited” security cabinet meeting this evening to discuss the US-Iran deal.

As reported, the draft agreement could include ending the war on all fronts, including Israel’s assault on Lebanon. Netanyahu, who is pushing for the complete disarmament of Hezbollah, is unlikely to be happy with that provision if it does end up being included in the deal.

Israel has continued striking Lebanon regularly, both south and north of the Litani River in south Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire coming into effect last month.

Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group, has fired rockets and drones into northern Israel and against Israeli troops in southern Lebanon.

According to the Lebanese health ministry, at least 3,111 people have been killed in Israeli attacks since the latest round of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel started on 2 March.

Israel’s deadly air assault – and ground invasion – were in response to Hezbollah firing rockets at northern Israel after the US and Israel killed the former Iranian supreme leader in Tehran on 28 February.

Here is the video of US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, hailing the “significant progress” he said had been made on Iran talks – before explaining why he is only being cautiously optimistic (see post at 08.49 for more details):

Iran’s Tasnim news agency is reporting that Tehran has made no commitments in the draft agreement to hand over any of its nuclear material.

It said all issues “regarding the nuclear matter” have been postponed, adding that the current draft is limited to “ending the war”.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has welcomed signs of progress in US-Iran peace talks.

“I welcome the progress towards an agreement between the US and Iran. We need a deal that truly de-escalates the conflict, reopens the strait of Hormuz and guarantees toll-free full freedom of navigation. Iran must not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon,” von der Leyen wrote on X.

“It must also end its destabilising actions in the region, directly or through proxies, as well as its unjustified and repeated attacks on its neighbours,” she added.

A senior Iranian source has told the Reuters news agency that if Iran’s supreme national security council approved the memorandum, it would be sent to supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei for final approval.

No verified recording or visual sighting of Khamenei has been broadcast since he was appointed supreme leader in early March. Reports have suggested that he was severely injured in the US-Israeli bombing that killed his 86-year-old father and predecessor on 28 February.

The UK’s prime minister, Keir Starmer, said he supports the nearing of an agreement between the US and Iran toward ending the war and reopening the strait of Hormuz. In a post on X, Starmer wrote:

I welcome the progress towards an agreement between the US and Iran. We need to see an agreement that brings the conflict to an end and reopens the strait of Hormuz, with unconditional and unrestricted freedom of navigation.

It’s vital that Iran must never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. My government will continue to do everything we can to protect British people from the impact of this conflict. We will work with our international partners to seize this moment and achieve a long-term diplomatic settlement.

Rubio said that the path to a durable agreement would require “full Iranian acceptance and then compliance”, and “future work” would have to be done to finalise “the details”.

“When you are talking about a nuclear programme, as an example, these are highly technical matters and ones that would probably need to be addressed over some period of time,” the secretary of state said.

Responding to the criticism of the emerging deal from senior Republicans (see post at 08.28), Rubio said Donald Trump’s commitment to Iran never possessing a nuclear weapon is unwavering.

“And the idea that somehow this president, given everything he has already proven he is willing to do, is going to somehow agree to a deal that ultimately winds up putting Iran in a stronger position when it comes to nuclear ambitions is absurd,” he said.

“That is just not going to happen. But our preference is to address this through a diplomatic means and that is what we are endeavouring to do here.”

While there is little doubt that waves of US and Israeli airstrikes heavily degraded Iran’s military capabilities, many of Donald Trump’s core objectives remain unfulfilled and he is now essentially trying to get back to the status quo of the strait of Hormuz being freely open to international vessels.

A stockpile of highly enriched uranium is also still believed to remain buried following US and Israeli airstrikes last June and Iran reportedly retains much of its pre-war missile stockpile despite US-Israeli attacks.

Texas senator Ted Cruz has said he is “deeply concerned” about the reports of the potential deal being struck between Tehran and Washington.

He said Donald Trump was right to launch the initial strikes on Iran in late February, in which the country’s former supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed, but urged the president to “continue to hold the line”.

“He was right to do so, and we achieved extraordinary military results-including destroying all of their missiles & drones and sinking their entire navy,” Cruz, who is among the Republican lawmakers most supportive of airstrikes on Iran, wrote in a post on X.

“If the result of all that is to be an Iranian regime-still run by Islamists who chant “death to America”-now receiving billions of dollars, being able to enrich uranium & develop nuclear weapons, and having effective control over the strait of Hormuz, then that outcome would be a disastrous mistake.”

Iran’s Tasnim semi-official news agency is saying Tehran has not yet agreed to any actions on its nuclear program and that under the potential memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US, Washington would waive its sanctions against selling Iranian oil.

The MOU also emphasises ending the war on all fronts including Lebanon, according to Tasnim, and that Israel would have to end the war in Lebanon.

It said a 30-day period would be allocated for procedures relating to the strait of Hormuz and an end to the US blockade of Iranian ports, while a 60-day period would be set for nuclear negotiations.

Under the MOU, part of Iran’s frozen funds must be released during the first phase of the agreement, Tasnim is saying, quoted by Reuters.

The foreign minister of mediator Pakistan has said the achievements of the latest negotiations on the Iran war “offer grounds for optimism that a positive and durable outcome is within reach”.

Ishaq Dar said Donald Trump’s phone call with Middle Eastern leaders and Pakistan “marks a significant step closer toward the shared objective of regional peace, stability and an early diplomatic outcome”.

He also said in the post on X:

Pakistan remains firmly committed to supporting all sincere efforts aimed at lasting peace, mutual respect, and regional stability.”

Dar, who is also deputy prime minister, added:

Dialogue and diplomacy must prevail over conflict and confrontation for the collective prosperity and security of our region and beyond.”

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan says he welcomes the latest developments on the Iran war and believes “appropriate solutions” can be found on the nuclear and other contentious issues.

Erdoğan also said Turkey “stands ready to provide every kind of support” during the potential deal’s implementation phase and that “a just peace would have no losers”.

A post on X from the Turkish presidency said held a teleconference with Donald Trump and Middle Eastern leaders and mediator Pakistan as well as US cabinet members and expressed that “an agreement to secure free passage through the Strait of Hormuz would support stability in the region, providing a relief to global economy”.

In the call Erdoğan said that “appropriate solutions could be found over the course of the process to the issues that look contentious within the context of Iran, including the nuclear issue”.

The post also said:

Underscoring that Türkiye desires a new era in which countries of the region do not pose threats to one another, President Erdoğan added that a just peace would have no losers.”

Iran’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia has said conditions are now right for Middle Eastern countries to “unite in the reconstruction of the region” and build it up.

Alireza Enayati also said on X (in a translation) that Iran had “strong ropes that have kept the tent of Iran safe from fierce winds and destructive storms throughout history” and that it “remains proud” during hardships.

He said:

Iran is a new opportunity for the region to think about the future by moving away from the repetitive literature of the past. Now, conditions are in place for all countries in the region to unite in the reconstruction of the region and to work together to build the region.”

Iran executed one person for charges related to sending information to the US and Israel during the war, the Iranian judiciary’s Mizan news agency reported on Sunday, according to Reuters.

The individual was sending data about Iran’s defence industry to “the enemy”, the news agency alleged.

The draft agreement between the US and Iran also makes clear the Israel- Hezbollah war in Lebanon would end, Axios is reporting.

The newsite quotes an unnamed Israeli official as saying Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed concern about that condition – and other aspects of the deal – during a call with Donald Trump on Saturday.

The report went on:

The US official said it would not be a ‘one-sided ceasefire’ and if Hezbollah tried to rearm or instigate attacks, Israel would be allowed to take action to prevent it. ‘If Hezbollah behaves, Israel will behave.’”

As just mentioned, the report says the agreement is only in unfinalised draft form and “could still fall apart”, according to a US official.

Amid Israel’s strikes on Lebanon this weekend, Hezbollah said Iran pledged not to abandon the militant group.

Tehran-backed Hezbollah said its leader, Naim Qassem, had received a message from Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi saying the latest proposal through Pakistani mediators aimed ending the regional war emphasised “the demand to include Lebanon” in the broader ceasefire.

Lebanese authorities, however, have insisted the country’s ongoing talks with Israel under US auspices must be independent from the Iran-US negotiations, as AFP reports.

Israel’s military has been pounding Lebanon despite the US-brokered truce that was recently extended by six weeks, while Hezbollah has also kept up attacks on Israeli targets.

The group said Araghchi’s message indicated Iran “will not give up its support” for Hezbollah.

Iran has previously demanded there be a lasting ceasefire in Lebanon before any peace deal with the US.

Hezbollah has vehemently rejected the US-hosted talks between Lebanon and Israel that led to the truce.

Lebanon’s military stressed this week that its soldiers were loyal to the institution after the US announced sanctions that included an officer accused of sharing information with Hezbollah.

A key element of the proposed agreement between Iran and the US is an apparent commitment by Tehran to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, the New York Times is quoting US officials as saying.

The officials said the proposal did not settle the issue of precisely how Iran would give up its stockpile, putting off the details for a coming round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program, the report said.

But a general statement that Iran would commit to doing so – a longtime US goal – was critical to the deal, it said.

Iran originally balked at including any agreement on its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in this apparent initial phase, demanding it be put off until the second stage of talks. But US negotiators said they made clear to Iran that without some agreement on the stockpile in the initial part of the deal, they would walk away and resume their military campaign, the report said.

White House officials did not return Times requests for comment. Iran hasn’t commented publicly on the agreement Trump flagged.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson has posted a cryptic message on X that might be read as referring to Donald Trump.

Esmaeil Baqaei’s post says:

In the Roman mind, Rome was the undisputed center of the world. Yet the Iranians shattered that illusion; when Marcus Julius Philippus (Philip the Arab) marched east against Persia, the campaign did not result in Roman victory — it ended in a peace established on Sasanian terms: the emperor had to come to terms!

Trump’s announcement of a deal with Iran being close said it would involve reopening the strait of Hormuz, without giving further details – but getting the waterway reopened has been a central concern for Washington amid the war.

Why is the strait so important? It’s one of the world’s most vital arteries for global trade, and Iran’s chokehold on it has crippled international shipping and sent energy prices soaring, bringing fears of driving a global economic downturn.

About 20% of all global oil supplies and seaborne gas tankers pass through the strait.

It lies between Oman and Iran and links the Gulf to the north with the Gulf of Oman to the south and the Arabian Sea beyond – a location that makes it a crucial chokepoint for oil deliveries from Opec countries to customers in Asia. Options to bypass the strait are limited.

You can read more in this explainer:

Trump’s social media post made no mention of Iran’s nuclear program and highly enriched uranium, which Tehran has sought to negotiate over later, but came amid growing optimism among officials over a potential deal to end the war.

Earlier on Saturday, a regional official with direct knowledge of the Pakistan-led mediation efforts said the US and Iran were closing in on an agreement.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door deliberations, also told the Associated Press that “last-minute disputes” could blow up the efforts.

This is not the first time in recent weeks that a deal has been described as close.

The official said the deal would include an official declaration of the end of the war, with two-month negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. The strait of Hormuz would be reopened and the US would end its blockade of Iran’s ports .

Iran, meanwhile, had signalled “narrowing differences” in negotiations after Pakistani army chief Asim Munir held more talks in Tehran.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio earlier pointed to “some good signs” while also saying: “I don’t want to be overly optimistic … so let’s see what happens over the next few days.”

Donald Trump made the announcement via a Truth Social post, saying he had spoken to a host of leaders in the Middle East by phone, including a separate call with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which he said “went very well”.

He added: “Final aspects and details of the deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.”

As we reported in the summary, the Fars news agency, which is close to the regime in Tehran, has said Trump’s assertion that an agreement was nearly final was “inconsistent with reality”.