‘A minefield’: taoiseach prepares for St Patrick’s Day visit to Washington

Original article by Rory Carroll Ireland correspondent

For Ireland’s leaders, it has long been the highlight of the political calendar: a love-fest in Washington with hosts who sport shamrocks and toast Saint Patrick.

Irish delegations are traditionally received on Capitol Hill and at the White House in a blaze of goodwill and backslapping that has them wishing every day was 17 March.

This time, however, feels different. When the taoiseach, Micheál Martin, presents Donald Trump with a bowl of shamrocks in the Oval Office next week, he will be walking a tightrope.

The US president’s mercurial nature and tensions between Dublin and Washington over foreign policy, corporate tax and immigration have turned the Irish-American showcase into a potential debacle.

“I’m sure the taoiseach has a plan, but the best-laid plans can go awry when you’re walking through a minefield,” said Trina Vargo, founder and president of the US-Ireland Alliance, which promotes bilateral links.

Some Republicans have lambasted Ireland over its stances on Palestine and Israel, and its pocketing of enormous tax revenues from US tech and pharma giants. Some in the Make America Great Again (Maga) movement hope an Irish version of Trump will emerge to topple Dublin’s ruling elites.

“I hate plámás,” said Vargo, using an Irish term for ingratiating flattery. “But it’s what the president responds to. I suspect the taoiseach will pitch golf big time in hopes of keeping him sweet.”

But if Martin only lauds and charms Trump, he will anger Irish people who want him to deliver rebukes over US actions against Iran, Greenland, undocumented immigrants and other targets.

Earlier this week, Ireland’s president, Catherine Connolly, called the crisis in the Middle East “deliberate assaults on international law” – a coded way to say that Trump’s war against Iran was illegal. Opposition parties have denounced the conflict and told Martin to confront Trump or boycott the White House. Michelle O’Neill, Sinn Féin’s Northern Ireland first minister, will not attend.

The detention of Irish citizens by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents – and warnings of raids at St Patrick’s Day gatherings – have deepened the sense that Ireland can no longer expect preferential treatment.

Irish voters narrowly favour Martin visiting the White House, according to an opinion poll last month, but a clear majority oppose any invitation to Trump to attend the Irish Open, which will be held in September at his golf resort in Doonbeg, County Clare.

Leo Varadkar, a former taoiseach and coalition partner, said Martin had a responsibility to avoid saying or doing anything that might provoke Trump and damage Ireland, but that he also had an obligation to articulate Irish concerns. “I do think Irish people will want him to use the opportunity to say something,” Varadkar told RTÉ.

Dan Mulhall, a former Irish ambassador to Washington, said there was no point in trying to challenge or confront Trump. “You’re not going to convince him that he’s wrong and you’re right. I’m sure Micheál Martin’s speechwriters are working away to craft a message that will reflect our concerns but not beard the lion in his den.”

It used to be much simpler. A gift of shamrock to president Harry Truman in 1952 ushered in the era of Washington turning green to celebrate Ireland’s patron saint and the Irish diaspora. It gave Dublin a platform to network and lobby for investment, visas and other favours. Even as Irish emigration to the US dwindled, the tradition persisted and gained fresh impetus under the presidencies of Bill Clinton and Joe Biden.

But sentimentality about Ireland has receded with demographic realities, leaving it potentially vulnerable, said Vargo. “President Trump’s gaze just hasn’t turned to Ireland, yet. Ireland has to hope it doesn’t.”

Irish officials hope to butter up their host by highlighting planned investments by Irish firms. “Ireland’s gift to Trump: shamrocks and a $6.1bn investment pledge,” the Wall Street Journal reported this week.

Martin can buy extra goodwill by citing the Irish ancestry of 23 US presidents, said Mulhall. He is optimistic the taoiseach will escape unscathed. “St Patrick’s Day is an American institution, it’s a happy occasion. Nobody in Maga land is hoping that Trump will give Micheál Martin a good battering.”

Anxiety about last year’s visit – when tensions were lower – proved misplaced, said Mulhall. “The minute I saw the shots of JD Vance showing off his green socks I knew it was going to be fine.”