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Middle East crisis live: US will restart military action if Iran does not uphold deal, says Hegseth

The Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has praised what he called a “historic” deal with the US to end the war between the two countries and pave the way for negotiations towards a final settlement. In a post on social media, he said: “This is a historic document and a message from a powerful Iran: peace will be realised in the shadow of mutual respect. “The Islamic Republic of Iran has always been committed and steadfast to global peace while preserving its dignity and independence, as well as to progress and regional cooperation.” He also posted an image of the document bearing his signature and that of US president Donald Trump.

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US to review benefits of having troops in Europe with ‘era of free-riding’ over – Europe live

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that “if Ukraine burns, your Moscow will burn” as he ramped up his rhetoric after overnight drone strikes on the Russian capital. Scores of drones ⁠targeted Moscow overnight, hitting the Russian capital’s oil refinery for the second time this week, Reuters reported. “We don’t ⁠want this war, we never did, and everyone knows it, and our partners ‌know it,” Zelenskyy ‌said in a voice message sent to reporters on a ‌WhatsApp group, quoted by Reuters. But if Ukraine burns, your Moscow will burn. Zelenskyy also called on Europe and ⁠the United States to increase pressure on Russia through sanctions on Russia’s defence and energy sectors and broader economy to force president Vladimir Putin into ending ‌the war.

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Irish parliament votes to remove three-day abortion wait

Ireland’s parliament has voted to remove a mandatory three-day wait for abortion during early pregnancy after campaigners said the rule was an unnecessary restriction. The Dáil passed the bill on Wednesday night, clearing a path for the legislation to go to a parliamentary committee and become law later this, or next, year. Supporters said it was one of the most significant changes to women’s healthcare since voters ended a constitutional ban on abortion in a 2018 referendum. Opponents said it overturned a safeguard endorsed in the referendum. Mary Lou McDonald, the leader of Sinn Féin, which sponsored the bill, said: “Women, healthcare providers and campaigners have long called for this unnecessary barrier to be removed.” Under the current rule there is a compulsory three-day waiting period between when a woman can seek an abortion up to 12 weeks and obtain the necessary medication. It was inserted into draft legislation before the 2018 referendum to clinch support from voters who were unsure about legalising abortion. The bill passed with 86 deputies in favour and 70 against. The ruling centrist coalition of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael gave its Dáil deputies a free vote as a matter of conscience. Most deputies from both parties voted against but a handful of cabinet ministers, including the taoiseach, Micheál Martin, and the tánaiste, Simon Harris, joined other party colleagues in backing the Sinn Féin proposal, which was supported by other leftwing opposition parties. “You don’t have to think abortion is a good or desirable thing to believe that it is a matter for each individual to make the decision if it is the right thing for them,” said Barry Ward, a Fine Gael deputy who backed the bill. “We have to presume that women will think long and carefully about such an important decision and the presence of a mandatory three-day waiting period assumes the opposite.” A review of the legislation in 2022 by a barrister, Marie O’Shea, recommended removing the three-day rule and relaxing other restrictions. Supporters of the three-day rule said it was endorsed in the referendum and gave women an opportunity to reflect on an important decision. They cited official figures that between 2019 and 2024 approximately 10,400 women did not return for a second abortion consultation after the waiting period. Robert Troy, a Fianna Fáil junior minister, said some voters had backed abortion legalisation on the basis of certain “protections and safeguards”, including the three-day wait. “It doesn’t do politics any justice to row back a short time later and try and change things.” Peadar Tóibín , the leader of the Aontú party, said there was no public appetite to remove the wait period. “Many people who voted for repeal are angry.”

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UK mosques advised to run lockdown drills amid fears of anti-Muslim attacks

Mosques are being advised to carry out lockdown drills, strengthen ties with police and improve CCTV coverage under national guidance published amid growing concerns about anti-Muslim attacks. The Muslim Council of Britain (MCB) released a new security and preparedness framework for mosques, trustees and volunteers, warning that places of worship and community centres faced an increasing threat from vandalism, intimidation, threats and targeted hostility. The guidance provides practical advice on how mosques should respond to an incident. It includes lockdown procedures, emergency response planning, incident reporting systems and measures to strengthen relationships with local authorities and police forces. There has been a series of attacks recently targeting Muslim communities, including one on the home of an imam in Bolton, and heightened fears after racist riots in Belfast. The MCB warned its nearly 500 affiliated mosques and community centres to remain vigilant for another summer of “violence on our streets”, and imams were encouraged to use Friday sermons to share messages of hope, unity and resilience. Home Office figures released last October showed recorded hate crime in England and Wales was rising for the first time in three years, including increases in racially and religiously motivated offences. In England and Wales, where 3.9 million people identify as Muslim, anti-Muslim hate crime rose from 2,690 offences to 3,199 in the 12 months to March 2025. The guidance sets out a phased roadmap for improving security over three, 12 and 36 months. Initial recommendations include appointing a dedicated safety lead, carrying out a walkthrough security assessment, identifying CCTV blind spots and establishing clear lockdown and “hold and secure” procedures. The guidance warns that common vulnerabilities include a lack of named safety officers, weak links with police, uncontrolled access points, poor lighting and volunteers being unsure how to respond during emergencies. Among the threats identified are graffiti, vandalism, arson attempts, abuse and intimidation at entrances, suspicious individuals loitering around premises, threats during busy prayer times and bomb threats or suspicious packages. The framework encourages mosques to build stronger relationships with neighbours, councillors, local businesses and other faith groups, saying community ties can help ensure a faster and calmer response when incidents occur. Wajid Akhter, the MCB secretary general, said communities remained concerned about a repeat of the unrest seen in recent summers. “As we approach [the anniversary of] the 19 June [2017] Finsbury Park terrorist attack, our thoughts and prayers remain with the family of Uncle Makram Ali, the survivors and their families,” he said. “The horror of that night remains etched in our collective memory. It remains a stark reminder of what happens when venomous, unchecked Islamophobia is allowed to fester in our society.” He said that dehumanising rhetoric against ethnic minorities, immigrants and Muslims circulating in public discourse had directly translated to heightened anxiety and vulnerability on the ground. “The recent riots in Southampton and Belfast that exploited knife crime tragedies highlights how parts of Britain’s politicians and mainstream media, aided by algorithm-fuelled social media disinformation and foreign-based billionaires seeking yet more violence on our streets, relish any opportunity to relive the Southport-style racist and Islamophobic nationwide riots of summer 2024,” he added. The MCB said an anonymous survey conducted after the recent disorder in Northern Ireland revealed widespread fear among Muslim communities. One respondent, who lived with her family in accommodation attached to a mosque, described being in a “constant state of fear and anxiety” following attacks on homes, businesses and vehicles. “I am deathly worried that our mosque will be attacked and burned in the middle of the night whilst me, my husband and my girls are sleeping upstairs and we can’t get out in time,” she said. “I have been having these thoughts and can’t seem to stop catastrophising.” Another respondent said: “It is frightening to witness young men being influenced and going door to door looking for foreigners, claiming there are foreigners in certain homes. This behaviour is terrifying for many people in the community” They noted that a Muslim hijabi woman was recently chased by racists on her way to work. “She was in a very vulnerable situation, and a passerby helped her get into a car and to safety.” Another respondent said support for those affected by anti-Muslim hate crime had been limited. They said their daily lives had been significantly altered since widespread racist rioting engulfed Belfast. “Many of us feel unsafe going out to work, shop, or carry out normal day-to-day activities because of racist targeting and intimidation,” they said. Akhter said the guidance was not just about installing physical barriers. “It is about empowering our communities to remain vigilant, to build strong local relationships and allies, and to have the structure in place to respond.”

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Thursday briefing: What we can learn from the Swiss rejection of a population cap

Good morning. Polling stations have just opened in Makerfield, where byelection voters will make a decision that – whatever the result – will have long-term, national consequences. Results are expected in the early hours, and we’ll have them in full, along with much more, in your inboxes tomorrow morning. Today we turn to another vote, which, much like certain parts of the campaign in Makerfield, centred on immigration. Swiss progressives breathed a collective sigh of relief on Sunday night, after voters rejected a divisive referendum. The far-right proposal, backed by Switzerland’s biggest parliamentary party, the Swiss People’s party (SVP), wanted to limit the country’s permanent population to 10 million until 2050. It would have made Switzerland the first country to implement a population cap. The Swiss electorate had other ideas. After a campaign in which the margins looked incredibly tight, final figures show the initiative was defeated by a more comfortable 55% to 45%. By most metrics, Switzerland is one of the world’s most prosperous, happy and healthy nations. Nonetheless, this debate rages on. For today’s First Edition, I discussed the vote with Joseph de Weck, an associate fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, to see what lessons there are to take from the defeat of this populist panacea. But first, this morning’s headlines. Five big stories Middle East | Donald Trump has signed a 14-point agreement with Iran, claiming it delivered a “major win” for the United States – even as it made significant political and financial concessions to Iran to reopen the strait of Hormuz and prevent a “worldwide depression”. UK news | British officials believe Russia will try to retaliate for the Royal Marines’ seizure of the oil tanker Smyrtos, prompting UK shipowners to exercise greater vigilance until tensions with Moscow ease. Health | Women who received an HPV vaccine in early adolescence have virtually zero risk of dying from cervical cancer before the age of 30, according to a groundbreaking study, but falling vaccination rates could see a rise in avoidable deaths. UK economy | Brexit has depressed UK exports to the EU by 12%, and rejoining the customs union would undo only a fraction of the damage, research shared with the Guardian shows. Science | Decriminalising the possession of cannabis or strictly regulating access to the drug do not appear to drive up usage, but when the drug is sold commercially the number of users increases and more mental health problems are seen, a review has found. In depth: ‘There’s a mentality of Switzerland as this calm fortress that is being stormed’ Anti-immigration sentiments have been pervasive in Switzerland for decades. “It’s a small country, and there is constant anxiety about being ‘taken over’ by foreigners,” says de Weck. “It’s similar to the ‘great replacement theory’ being discussed in other European countries. But the Swiss attitude predates this. There’s a mentality of Switzerland as a refuge, and that this picture-perfect, clean and calm fortress is being stormed. That paradise could be lost.” Immigration in Switzerland is relatively high. The country’s population has jumped from 6.7 million in 1990 to approximately nine million today. According to government figures, over a quarter of residents weren’t born in the country – one of the highest levels in Europe. In Switzerland, a referendum can be forced if 100,000 people back an initiative within 18 months. These then need a double majority to pass: nationally, 50% of voters need to vote yes, as must the majority of voters in at least half of Switzerland’s 26 semi-sovereign states (called cantons). As a result, immigration policy is a near constant question in the country. “The Swiss have voted on immigration perhaps 20 times in the past 60 years, from different angles,” says de Weck. “These votes are mostly launched by the far-right SVP, the biggest in parliament.” Only one such vote has passed, the “against mass immigration” initiative in 2014, which led to minor reforms. Comparisons have been made between this year’s vote and an infamous 1970 referendum. Known as the Schwarzenbach initiative, de Weck says “it would have limited the percentage of foreign-born people living in Switzerland to 10%. If accepted, over 300,000 foreigners would have been expelled.” Voters narrowly rejected it, which “gave the far right a theme to expand on. It’s no great surprise we had Sunday’s vote – it’s almost a Swiss tradition.” “That’s important to understand about Switzerland,” says de Weck. “We vote again and again on the same issues. This doesn’t mean we disrespect democracy. Votes are like signals or pivots – the population tells Berne to pivot a bit. And if they go too far, we tell them. Since everyone can launch initiatives, we do so regularly.” *** Reframing the debate If current trends continue, Switzerland’s population is projected to hit 10 million by 2040 or 2041. Capping it there would be entirely arbitrary, de Weck believes. “I’m approaching 40 – we grew up learning that Switzerland is a country of 7 million. Psychologically, it’s a shift to go into double digits.” While plenty of nations limit immigration, no country has ever voted explicitly to cap its population. If the vote had passed, once the population hit 9.5 million, restrictions on family reunification, asylum and residency permits would have been expected, as would Switzerland looking to leave the Schengen area. Opting for a ceiling in the referendum that required no immediate action was tactical. “They didn’t want to scare voters into saying the stop is tomorrow,” says de Weck. “The relationship with the EU would have to be renegotiated imminently – and nobody wants a Brexit mess. Presented as a safeguard measure for the future, they hoped it would feel less radical to voters in the centre.” Its far-right proponents adjusted their framing, too. “The SVP labelled it the ‘sustainability initiative’, trying to couch this vote in that language: infrastructure being strained; the environment being damaged – it’s nonsense. This party is pushing for super-low corporate tax rates, and is pro fossil fuels. “Polling in the run-up to the vote showed left-wing voters weren’t tempted by this. (In 2023, voters backed a commitment to net zero with a sizeable majority.) It shows how far-right parties will constantly adapt their anti-immigrant rhetoric.” Progressive attempts to appease the right on immigration, de Weck suggests, only leads to the goalposts moving – something Britons may recognise in how the debate has shifted even further rightwards since the Brexit result, and recent falling immigration figures. *** Moving goalposts Despite the defeat, a large chunk of the Swiss electorate still backed the radical, anti-immigration measure. But in global quality of life rankings, Switzerland regularly comes out close to the top. Its population has one of the highest levels of current life satisfaction in Europe. In the OECD’s Better Life Index, Switzerland outperforms the average on everything from education and life expectancy to disposable income. Financial stability and success, even if welcome, is clearly not the simple salve to anti-immigration sentiment that some on the left may hope. “The discourse was therefore about immigration’s secondary effects. Trains being full, traffic being bad. They invented the term dichtestress, meaning ‘density stress’: the strain a growing population puts on infrastructure. And then the sense of feeling at home: walking down the street and hearing so many foreign languages.” Analysis shows that voters in urban areas, with higher levels of immigration, rejected the referendum in the greatest numbers. As the results were announced, the SVP president, Marcel Dettling, lamented that “cities simply wipe the country out”. This, de Weck argues, is significant. “As always, regions with the fewer immigrants voted in favour.” Areas where rents are lower; public services are less pressured. “It’s evidence that those who support these initiatives do so because of their opinion on foreigners, rather than societal strains they’re not even personally experiencing.” It is a pattern we see repeated in much of the western world. *** There is another way Britain’s Labour government has taken a hardline approach to immigration since being elected in 2024. Potential Makerfield MP (and challenger to the prime minister), Andy Burnham, has backed these policies. The progressive approach in Switzerland, explains de Weck, is different. “The left is making a positive case for immigration here,” he says. “It is unafraid of saying Switzerland is a success story because of immigrants. The Swiss left doesn’t have the same issue as the German or British left in moving towards the right on immigration. “Immigration has been high compared to other European countries, but Switzerland is highly successful and wealthy because of this globalisation. It created a stable economic climate that has attracted foreign innovators.” The economy is strong. Unemployment is low. Wages are high. “Life here is pretty good,” says de Weck. “But that doesn’t mean the far right don’t push anti-immigrant rhetoric. It’s a lesson to progressives: even in a country where you’ve solved most economic and social issues” – or, where immigration is predominantly from within western Europe – “a far-right party can still prove successful.” That’s not to deny challenges facing residents. Housing came up a lot in this referendum, de Weck says. Average house prices have more than doubled in the past two decades. Statistics show that while rent and salaries have increased, low-income earners have been left worse off. “There is an issue: a lack of building, the financial sector buying up properties for investments and immigration pushing up demand,” says de Weck. But instead of blaming migrants, progressives, who govern most cities in Switzerland, are looking for solutions. In Zurich, for example, the city government has budgeted £560m to purchase properties in 2026, bringing more housing into public ownership. “There is more to be done,” says de Weck, “and this stuff takes time. But in Switzerland, the left has understood you need to take action.” These results, he says, are proof. “The Swiss have resisted the hubris of nationalism and xenophobia. And for now at least, immigration doesn’t need to absorb even more of our political capital.” What else we’ve been reading Russia caused major damage to Kyiv’s Pechersk Lavra monastery this week. These striking images of this Unesco world heritage site before the deadly air raid really capture its beauty. Michael Judith Kerr, beloved author of The Tiger Who Came to Tea and When Hitler Stole Pink Rabbit, was not the only talent in her family. Now music composed by her mother, Julia, whose musical career was cut short by the Nazis, has been re-discovered in German archives. Libby This moving, personal and persuasive column by 14-year-old trans athlete Lina Haaga should give us all pause for thought: “No child, transgender or cisgender, should be forced to endure the cruelty of uninformed adults.” Michael World Cup 2026 On the pitch England v Croatia | Captain Harry Kane struck twice in a spluttering first half before goals from Jude Bellingham and Marcus Rashford sealed a stylish win for England in Dallas. Ghana v Panama | A stoppage time goal from Caleb Yirenkyi gave Ghana a 1-0 win over Panama as they joined England at the top of Group L. And the rest … | Newcastle striker Yoane Wissa became the first DR Congo player to score at a World Cup to force a draw against Portugal, while in Mexico City, Colombia managed to squeeze past dogged Uzbekistan, although the 3-1 scoreline didn’t fully reflect the pattern of the Group K match. Off the pitch Mexico | A protest is set to be held before the game between Mexico and South Korea in Guadalajara, against World Cup sponsor Hyundai’s business dealings with the South American mining company Ternium. Ghana | The Black Stars’ football odyssey has been a topsy-turvy ride due to managerial instability, Thomas Partey’s visa issues and loss of their most influential player, Mohammed Kudus, to injury. Social media | Every World Cup sees the dawn of new stars, and social media is increasing that effect as previously unknown players have gained millions of social media followers thanks to the attention of tournament Today’s Fixtures • Czechia v South Africa, 5pm BST on BBC • Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina, 8pm BST on ITV • Canada v Qatar, 11pm BST on ITV • Mexico v South Korea, 2am BST on BBC The front pages “Team Burnham talk ministers out of resigning to avoid chaos”, is the Guardian’s front page today. The Times leads with “Change is coming, says Burnham in snub to PM”, the i Paper has “D-Day for PM as Makerfield voters shape future of UK”, and the Mail’s headline is “Miliband set to trigger cabinet coup”. Metro writes “Starmer’s bye-bye election?”. Elsewhere, the Telegraph has “England flags face ban by council”, the FT says “Warsh era begins at Fed with ditching of bias towards lower borrowing costs”, and the Sun, on the World Cup, has “Texas Kane score massacre”. Today in Focus: The Latest Why did Russia warship fire warning shots in the Channel? Keir Starmer has called the firing of warning shots by a Russian warship at a British yacht sailing across the Channel on Tuesday “deeply concerning and reckless”. Russia’s defence ministry said the yacht was on a ‘dangerous course’ and several attempts were made to contact it – a claim disputed by the retired couple onboard the 40ft yacht. Nosheen Iqbal speaks to the Guardian’s defence and security editor, Dan Sabbagh – watch the full episode here. Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad In two decades’ time, London could be encircled by willow, hornbeam and hazelnut trees, all thanks to a group of volunteers who are planting a tree-ring around the metropolis – an M25 for nature, if you will. The London Tree Ring project is an ambitious initiative to create a corridor of plant and animal life around the capital over 25 years. In Hadley Wood, north London, a group of young adults with disabilities are taking part in the project, which also acts as pathway into green sector jobs. “I don’t like being stuck in offices the whole time,” says Josh Limb, a young participant in the project. “I love being outdoors – I can breathe.” Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Martin Belam’s Thursday news quiz Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply • This article was amended on 18 June 2026. An earlier version said Switzerland’s population in 1990 was 3.3 million; in fact, it was approximately 6.8 million.

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Ukraine bolsters its northern defences amid fears Belarus is being dragged into war

Russian spy drones flying into Ukraine from Belarusian airspace have sharply increased since the beginning of the year, as senior officials in Kyiv express mounting concern over Belarus’s involvement in the war. Ukraine has stepped up by reinforcing fortifications on its northern border, including anti-tank ditches, concrete “dragons’ teeth” obstacles to block armoured vehicles and new areas of barbed wire. Troops operating along the border say they have noted a jump of about 20% in Russian intelligence drones since January. The increase in drone sightings comes in parallel with reports that Russia has constructed five new drone bases near its shared border with Belarus as part of its efforts to use Minsk’s airspace to attack Ukraine. Ukrainian officials, including the president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have spoken of “unusual activity” on the Belarus border, amid concern that Moscow is seeking to draw its ally further into the conflict, and warnings that have been given to Minsk. The claims came as Russia and Belarus on Wednesday accused Ukraine of conducting a deadly drone strike on a bus carrying Belarusian schoolchildren while visiting the Russian region of Bryansk, an allegation that Ukraine’s military said was “false”. According to reports in May, Belarus has also been expanding infrastructure that could support Russian operations, including logistics routes and training grounds, as well as communications and surveillance infrastructure in support of Russian drone strikes into Ukraine, which use the Belarusian border areas as an air corridor for attack. Officials say there is no evidence that Russian forces – or the Belarusian military – are gathering in large formations in border areas for a repeat of the use of Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine, as happened during the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Instead, what concerns Ukrainian and European officials is that Moscow is attempting to integrate Minsk ever more closely into its war efforts, including through joint nuclear exercises earlier this year. Among those who have flagged up concern over Belarus’s intentions is the former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba, who also served on the national defence and security council of Ukraine. In a recent television interview, Kuleba said that the Belarusian president, Aleksandr Lukashenko’s “actions today are different from 2022”, when he allowed his territory to be used by Russia for the invasion. “I’m not saying that an offensive will begin tomorrow,” Kuleba said. “I’m saying I can see something different. A series of events unfolding that gives reason to believe Lukashenko is preparing for war.” Other experts have noted an increase in pro-Russian messaging in Belarus, even as Moscow’s war against Ukraine increasingly has faltered. “Russia is in a strategic stalemate,” Maksym Pleshko, a Ukrainian politician and political scientist, told a recent expert roundtable on the Belarusian threat. “Russia faces serious problems on the frontlines because we are beginning to win this war, and Lukashenko’s use of his narratives and propaganda is precisely an attempt to somehow justify and resolve this situation,” said Pleshko. “And Putin is pressuring Lukashenko for greater cooperation, for greater involvement of his military system in the war against Ukraine, so Lukashenko is trying to justify this to his domestic audience.” Others, however, including Yevhen Mahda, the director of Kyiv’s Institute of World Policy, are highly sceptical that Lukashenko would risk using Belarusian troops to support Moscow. That was reinforced by warnings last month from Ukraine’s unmanned forces commander, Robert Brovdi, that Kyiv has already identified approximately 500 targets it would hit in the event of Minsk’s involvement becoming more direct. “If we are talking about him [Lukashenko] involved in a potential action against Ukraine, politically it would be the end of him, not least after all that has been said about 500 targets in Belarus that Ukraine is ready to hit,” said Brovdi. If there is broad agreement among experts in Ukraine and elsewhere, however, it is that Moscow – faced with a deepening impasse on the existing fronts in its war – may seek to use Belarus to threaten to widen the geographical scope of conflict against Ukraine, but also potentially in a wider European context. It was precisely this point that was made by Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, in May. “Moscow is increasingly dragging Belarus into its war against Ukraine, turning it into a platform for aggression, not only against our country, but against Europe as a whole.” And on Ukraine’s northern border with Belarus, Kyiv is not taking any risks regarding Minsk’s increasing participation in Moscow’s war. North of the city of Chernihiv, occupied for a few brief months by Russian forces in 2022, sparsely populated villages are set amid forests of pine, silver birch and black alder. Here, along a narrow road leading to the border, a shirtless work crew fixes loops of razor wire while an excavator digs new anti-tank barriers. Sitting in the parking area of a disused hotel and cafe 2km (1.2 miles) from Belarus, a major in Ukraine’s border force, who referred to himself by his military call sign, Nissan, is involved in improving the defences. “There’s no secret that Belarus was a platform to invade in 2022, so there’s no trust of Belarus,” said Nissan. “We’ve seen a lot of statements from Lukashenko. We see joint training, including nuclear forces. We have to be ready for any scenario. So every day we are building our fortifications. “With the landscape and what we have done, it’s my opinion it would be almost impossible for tanks and vehicles and infantry to move through here. Everything would be destroyed.” While Nissan sees nothing to suggest any troop buildup, the evidence instead points to the Kremlin seeking to further exploit its key cross-border air corridor for strikes on Ukraine, including the creation of a large new base at Tsymbulovo in the Oryol region, which Russian sources suggest would be one of the world’s biggest. And while Ukrainian forces have shot down more than 500 drones in the Chernihiv region alone since the beginning of the year, Russia is also intensifying its efforts to counter anti-drone and missile measures in this region. “What we have seen,” said Nissan, “is an increase in the numbers of intelligence drones flying from Bryansk region [in Russia and into Belarus and then Ukraine] to collect data on our troops.” The trends have not gone unnoticed by local residents. In a shop in the village of Novi Yarylovychi, 5km from the border and home to about 300 people, Natalia Lanna, 55, and Svitlana Sotvykova, 57, see Russian drones daily. “We had 16 go over yesterday evening in pairs,” said Natalia. “Sometimes they fly so low over the village, at 20-metres height, that it feels like I could catch them in my hands. “We can tell the difference between the armed drones and the intelligence ones. We’re experts,” added Svitlana. “The day before yesterday, it was a Gebera surveillance drone. It’s a different sound. A different colour. They circle round.” For some analysts, what residents and troops are seeing on the border represents the real meaning of the risk: not a sudden move by Moscow to open a new front, but an incremental widening of the scope of Russia’s activities involving Belarus. “For European policymakers,” wrote Hanna Liubakova, a journalist from Belarus, in a recent paper for the Atlantic Council, “recent developments in Belarus create a different kind of challenge. “This locks Belarus into a hybrid role that stops short of co-belligerent status, while deepening the country’s indirect participation in Russian aggression. For the Kremlin, this approach makes good sense. After all, Belarus is more useful to Moscow in the role of stable support base than as an unstable ally on the battlefield. “The risk is not of sudden escalation, but rather of gradual normalisation. As Belarus becomes more embedded in Russia’s war effort, incidents linked to its territory, whether drone activity, airspace violations or other forms of pressure, are likely to become more frequent and harder to interpret.”

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Western Europeans believe crime is rising despite fall in overall rates, poll finds

Western Europeans believe crime is rising in their country, according to a survey, despite long-term overall crime rates falling across the region since the mid-1990s. The YouGov poll of Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy and Spain found most countries trusted their national police, led by Denmark where 74% of respondents said they had a lot or a fair amount of confidence in police nationally. Between 57% and 64% of respondents in Spain, France, Germany and Italy also said they felt the same, but Britain was an outlier: only 43% said they had a lot or a fair amount of confidence in the police nationally, compared with 53% who had little. But while most western Europeans said they trusted their police, often sizeable majorities – ranging from 53% in Denmark to 66% in the UK, 78% in France and 80% in Italy – also said they thought crime was rising in their home countries. Asked whether they thought violent crime was also increasing, the responses were largely similar: 52% of respondents in Denmark and 59% in Britain said they thought violent crime had gone up a lot or a bit, rising to 76% in Italy and 77% in France. In fact, despite recent spikes in some violent crimes, often linked to drug trafficking in some countries – notably France and Germany – and a significant increase in online fraud almost everywhere, crime rates generally have been falling since 2000. Western Europe is much safer today than it was in the late 1980s and 1990s, with murder rates – considered the most reliable metric because homicide is almost always reported – plunging dramatically since 2000, according to Eurostat. In western European countries such as France, Germany, Italy and Spain, murders have fallen by 30% to more than 50% since the late 1990s. Italy’s annual murder tally has fallen from 1,917 in 1991 to 327 in 2024, giving it one of the lowest rates in the EU. France’s murder rate, similarly, was roughly 2.3 per 100,000 people in 1995. Even after a string of recent minor increases that have lifted the annual victim tally above 1,000 for the first time in two decades, the per capita rate remains about 1.4 per 100,000. Experts said France showed why falling overall crime rates remained largely invisible to the public: a rise in gang-related drug violence and increased reporting of sexual and domestic violence have grabbed headlines, eclipsing the long-term general decline. YouGov’s survey showed more people in France than not (44%) believed crime in their home country was worse than elsewhere, compared with only 27% of Germans and 11% of Danes – 37% of whom felt crime was lower in Denmark than in other countries. Asked about the prevalence of particular kinds of crime, respondents in Britain (60%) said they thought the UK was unique in suffering from a high rate of knife crime, compared with 40% of Germans and 24%-30% in the other countries surveyed. A majority of respondents (61%) in France, on the other hand, felt drug trafficking and distribution were more problematic than elsewhere, along with rioting and public disorder (42%, compared with between 7% and 21% in other countries). Respondents in Spain (56%) and Italy were (46%) were particularly likely to say corruption was more of a problem in their countries than elsewhere, against just 7% in Denmark, where financial and economic crime was seen as the most common. Italians were also the most likely (41%) to think their country – home to groups including the Neapolitan Camorra and the Calabrian ‘Ndrangheta – had a specific problem with organised crime, compared with 16-32% in other nations. Germans, meanwhile, felt drug trafficking and gang violence (23-25%) were less of a problem for them than elsewhere.