Back to Ukraine, it is becoming very clear – not that there were any particular doubts before – that Russia is not interested in the Ukrainian proposals for the Easter ceasefire. The Russian foreign ministry dismissed them as “a PR stunt by Ukraine,” which they said is merely “intended to [allow Ukraine to] make up for losses and continue fighting,” Reuters reported.
The new supreme leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, has issued a message of gratitude to Hezbollah’s secretary general, Naim Qassem. In a statement carried by Iranian media, he praised Hezbollah for its “perseverance, steadfastness and patience” against “the most ruthless enemies of the Islamic world”, as he vowed Iran will continue to support groups fighting US and Israeli forces across the Middle East. Khamenei has not been seen since the war began on 28 February and has only issued written statements since becoming Iran’s new supreme leader. US and Israeli officials believe he was wounded in the attack that killed six of his family members, including his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and remains in hiding.
The siege of Paris From our own correspondent 3 April 1926 English holidaymakers are pouring into Paris. Twenty thousand are said by the railway authorities to have crossed the Channel yesterday, and many more will no doubt arrive to-day. There must be as many visitors from other countries, among which Germany is strongly represented. They find Paris looking her best in ideal spring weather. Both yesterday and to-day the sun has shone incessantly, and the weather prophets predict that the present conditions will last. There is every sign of spring. The cafes have taken out their windows, the trees are green, the chestnuts are budding, and the Tuileries are gay with tulips. People unwise enough to arrive without having engaged rooms in advance are likely to have the opportunity of seeing Paris pretty thoroughly while they search for quarters. The proprietor of a small hotel in a quarter off the beaten track for tourists told me to-day he had had enough applications for rooms during the last few days to fill the hotel for two months if spread over that period. Every Easter there is said to be a record influx of visitors, but appearances suggest that it is really the case this year. Paris is at present the cheapest capital in Europe, especially for tourists, since everything they look for is particularly cheap, except rooms, the prices of which are naturally raised for the occasion. They will find compensation, however, in restaurants, theatres, music-halls, and other amusements at about half London prices, and they will not, like Parisians, complain that the taxi fares of threepence a mile are doubled at night. The theatre in Paris By Philip Carr 6 April 1926 There are four kinds of foreign playgoers in Paris. There are those who go straight for the Folies-Bergère, and, if they are very adventurous, follow up that visit by trying the Moulin Rouge music hall and the Casino de Paris. They frankly do not expect to understand a word, but intend to make up for that in dances and dresses – as little as possible – and girls, with an occasional comedian who can make you laugh by what he does, not what he says. They will find all the well known palaces of delight equipped for the holiday rush, with Mistinguett at the Moulin Rouge, the Dolly Sisters at the Casino de Paris, and no star at all at the Folies-Bergère, which does not need such attractions. They can also be alternately shocked and horrified at the Grand Guignol, for tradition demands that they shall forsake music halls for one evening to include a visit to the tiny theatre that was such a goldmine to Max Maurey before he took the Varietes. Then there are the earnest people who go every night to the Comédie Française, with an occasional visit to the Odeon, that large and dreary mausoleum where the reputations of so many artistic managers lie buried. If it gives you any pleasure to see translations of English plays in Paris you can find one of The Devil’s Disciple, which has just been produced with moderate success at the Odeon, just as you can also see Mme Pitoeff in Saint Joan at the Theatre des Arts. Continue reading.
Britain’s long-term national interest requires closer partnership with the EU, Keir Starmer has said, citing war in the Middle East and the increasingly volatile international situation. The prime minister indicated that the conflict had refocused the government on “ambitious” new ties with Europe, economically and in defence, and said how Britain emerged from the crisis “would define us for a generation”. Starmer also used the address at Downing Street to announce that the foreign secretary would host a meeting of other countries later this week on how to unblock the vital strait of Hormuz. “Following that meeting, we will also convene our military planners to look at how we can marshal our capabilities and make the strait accessible and safe after the fighting has stopped. Because I do have to level with people on this. This will not be easy,” he said. However, in the starkest indication yet that Britain was pivoting away from the US, Starmer also said he saw the UK’s future as being more closely tied to Europe ahead of an summit with the EU after last year’s post-Brexit “reset” meeting. “Brexit did deep damage to our economy, and the opportunities to strengthen our security and cut the cost of living are simply too big to ignore,” he said, before turning to the forthcoming meeting with the EU. “At that summit, the UK will not just ratify existing commitments made at last year’s summit. We want to be more ambitious, closer economic cooperation, closer security cooperation, a partnership that recognises our shared values, our shared interest and our shared future. A partnership for the dangerous world that we must navigate together.” Asked by journalists if the catalyst was his apparently deteriorating relationship with Donald Trump, who has continued to castigate Britain and Starmer personally, the prime minister said that more pan-European security cooperation was in everyone’s interest. “I actually think that will help strengthen our relationship with the US,” he said. Asked about Trump saying he was strongly considering pulling the US out of Nato, Starmer said he would act in the UK interest, whatever the “noise”. “Whatever the pressure on me and others, whatever the noise, I’m going to act in the British national interest in the decisions that I make,” he said.
Oil prices tumbled and stock markets rallied across the world on Wednesday after Donald Trump said the war in Iran would end in “two to three weeks”. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, dropped to $99.78 a barrel, down more than 15% compared with its price on Tuesday – its lowest level in a week. Stock markets rallied in Asia, where economies are highly exposed to shortages of oil and gas coming out of the Gulf. Japan’s Nikkei index surged up 5%, while the South Korean Kospi jumped by 8%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose by 2%, and China’s CSI 300 index was up by 1.7%. European stock markets followed Asia higher, with the UK’s blue-chip FTSE 100 up by 1.8% in early trading on Wednesday. The Europe Stoxx 600 index, which tracks the biggest companies across the continent, rose by 2.2%. Trump, talking about the war in Iran, said on Tuesday: “Now we’re finishing the job. I think in two weeks or maybe a few days longer, we’ll do the job. We want to knock out everything they’ve got.” The comments triggered a relief rally in the US stock market on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 rising by 2.9%. The US president is expected to address the US at 9pm ET on Wednesday (2am BST on Thursday). Emma Wall, the chief investment strategist at the broker Hargreaves Lansdown, said that markets were “choosing to believe the optimism from the White House”. “Trump’s comments suggest that the US will call victory soon and remove their presence from the region, despite no deal being reached with Iran,” she said. “While this is expected to provide an immediate boost to stocks, energy disruption would continue for some months, and likely impact both inflation and economic growth.” Nevertheless, City traders started to pare back their bets on UK interest rate rises this year. Money markets priced in about 41 basis points of increases to the UK bank rate by the end of 2026, which suggests that investors are no longer expecting two quarter-point rises. On Tuesday, the market had been anticipating 66 basis points of rate rises by Christmas, implying two rate rises. The price of gold, which jumped by 3.5% on Tuesday, rose by another 0.8% on Wednesday to its highest level in almost two weeks, to more than $4,700 an ounce.
Good morning. So far, there is only one clear winner from the war in Iran: Russia. Before the US and Israel attacked Tehran in late February, Moscow was preparing deep budget cuts to education and healthcare funding to pay for its invasion of Ukraine, which has now entered its fifth year. In just over a month of the fighting in Iran, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has experienced a dramatic reversal in fortunes. The global oil price has shot up from a prewar average of $72 to well over $100 per barrel, providing a financial boost of multi-billions for Moscow that shows little sign of ending. Meanwhile, important restrictions on Russian oil have been lifted, and Kyiv is increasingly nervous about how the Iran war will impact their ability to obtain defensive weapons from the US to fend off Russian drones and missiles. How did the tables turn so quickly? And what will be the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East be on Ukraine? For today’s newsletter, I spoke with Pjotr Sauer, a Russian affairs reporter for the Guardian, about how the two conflicts are connected. But first, the headlines. Five big stories Middle East | Donald Trump has launched a tirade against European countries that refused to join his war against Iran, calling out the UK and France. Military | The UK is sending more military support to the Gulf, taking the total deployment to 1,000 troops. NHS England | Some medicines could run out in weeks or even days, NHS England head warns, after supply line shocks. UK politics | Nigel Farage to ‘steer well clear’ of UK CPAC event in July being led by the short-lived former prime minister Liz Truss. UK news | King Charles’s state visit to US to go ahead in late April despite Iran war concerns. In depth: Russia is the big winner from this war On first sight, the US-Israeli attack on Iran may have seemed bad news for Vladimir Putin. The killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei marks the loss of another key regional ally for the global superpower, following two others: the fall of Syria’s president Bashar Al-Assad, and the US seizure of Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro. Furthermore, many assumed that by providing direct intelligence on US military positions to the Iranians, Russia risked angering the Trump administration, who have long been sympathetic to the Kremlin’s worldview. But this view has not been proved right so far, says Pjotr. “Russia is the big winner from this war,” he says. He points first to the fact that some restrictions on Russian oil put in place when the war with Ukraine first began have now been lifted. “The US was putting pressure on Russia’s traditional allies who were buying oil, including India and China. Now, that’s been reversed,” he says. At an opportune time, that reversal means the many Asian countries affected by the global supply squeeze coming out of the conflict in the Middle East are now looking to Russia to fill the gap providing a lifeline to Putin for his stretched war machine. “India is buying lots of Russian oil. We are seeing that other countries are interested, especially in Asia … They’re all turning to Russia now. In that sense, Russia is benefiting immensely. If this continues, we’ll hear more murmurs in Europe about getting Russian oil and gas, which is obviously a devastating outcome for Ukraine.” *** A mini domestic crisis in Russia That does not mean all is well in Moscow, says Pjotr. A crackdown on the popular social media app Telegram, internet blackouts, and frustration over slow progress in Ukraine have irritated many Russians. In mid-March, a popular pro-Kremlin blogger abruptly turned on the Russian president, calling him “illegitimate” and demanding he stand trial for war crimes. He was later sent to a psychiatric ward. Approval ratings for Putin’s leadership fell to 70%, according to state-backed polling, the lowest level since the invasion of Ukraine. While the figures remain remarkably high by western standards, Pjotr says it shows a clear trend. “Russia is facing a mini domestic crisis. We’re seeing that discontent is brewing, primarily over the fact that Russia is starting to block popular messaging apps. WhatsApp has been blocked already. YouTube is blocked. But now Russia is moving to block Telegram, which is this hugely popular messaging app,” says Pjotr. But forecasting the fortunes of the 73-year-old Russian leader is a fool’s errand. In February, Putin did not appear in public for more than a week, sparking rumours about his health, not for the first time. Pjotr says this is a distraction. A month later, Putin reappeared as strong as ever, as he has done after previous ‘disappearances’. *** A revived war machine As the fighting continues in the Middle East, Putin appears confident he will be able to sustain his war machine in Ukraine. Russian business contacts tell Pjotr the Kremlin is increasingly convinced that they will get all of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine as part of any settlement. Putin hopes to make a “grand deal” with the US, says Pjotr, in which the west agrees to halt Nato expansion and stop arming Ukraine in exchange for peace. Such an agreement would make Ukraine permanently weaker – and risk a future invasion for even more of the country. And so far, Russian support for Iran has not yet angered President Trump or affected Moscow’s optimism about the outcome of the Ukraine war. “It is quite hard to wrap your head around. Russia is directly involved in the war on Iran’s side. Trump still appears to favour Putin. Russia is providing Iran intelligence, and potentially drones in the future, to target American soldiers. Despite all this, Trump is not hardening his position towards Moscow and continues to pressure Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” he says. “Zelenskyy wants to offer his help to the US to protect American soldiers, he wants to offer his help to the Gulf states. It is really hard to understand why [Trump continues to favour Putin].” *** A role reversal for Ukraine For Kyiv, the war in Iran has heaped on more misery after a cold and brutal winter. No negotiations on ending the fighting with Russia have taken place since fighting started in Iran, says Pjotr. In recent days, Zelenskyy has sought to establish partnerships with Gulf states to offer expertise on defending themselves from drones, part of a strategy to remain relevant internationally. “Zelenskyy was in the Middle East over the weekend where he met leaders from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar. He’s now offering his experts to guide countries in the Middle East against Iranian drones, as well as actually offering to sell Ukrainian drones. It is a fascinating situation where Ukraine tries to transform itself from a weapons receiver to actually a weapons deliverer,” he says. But with the world’s attention elsewhere, Russian attacks have intensified, bringing further misery for Ukraine, says Pjotr. “Last week, it sent more than a thousand drones to Ukrainian cities. It was a record,” he says. “The US is completely distracted by the war in Iran. There haven’t been any talks since the start of the fighting. Zelenskyy seems worried that Ukraine is being forgotten.” In previous years, spring has heralded a fresh Russian assault on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine as the biting winter cold fades. The stakes could not be higher for Kyiv, which is still holding back the Russians in the east. But the spectre of a potential betrayal by the Trump administration looms large. What else we’ve been reading At the second attempt it looks like Eurovision is finally going to expand into Asia, with Bangkok hosting the inaugural, and slightly clumsily titled, Eurovision song contest Asia in November. Martin As the space around Earth continues to fill up with satellites, the Guardian’s visualisations team have produced an incredible piece on how a crash above our heads could quickly spiral out of control. Patrick Not entirely sure it would suit me – I believe we developed houses for a reason – but Steph Pomphrey visited Svalbard to cold camp and sleep on ice at the edge of a warming world. Martin Louis Staples argues that Love on the Spectrum – a dating show that follows a group of neurodivergent people as they search for a romantic connection – makes for life-affirming TV. Martin Elle Hunt has an interesting read on what life is like wearing Meta’s AI glasses. She wore them for a week so you don’t have to. Patrick Sport Football | Italy’s agonising World Cup exile continues after they fell to a 4-1 penalty shootout defeat by Bosnia and Herzegovina in their playoff final on Tuesday after a 1-1 draw. Football | Japan deservedly beat a lacklustre and Harry Kane-less England 1-0 at Wembley on Tuesday in the hosts’ last friendly before manager Thomas Tuchel announces his World Cup squad in May. Horse racing | A computer error has removed two well-backed horses from the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket next month, leaving the ante-post betting market in turmoil. The front pages “Go get your own oil, Trump tells UK in new outburst against allies” is the Guardian top story. The FT splashes on “Brent crude set for biggest monthly price rise on record as war takes toll”, the Mirror says “World pays for Trump lunacy”, and the i Paper has “King sent to US on mission to salvage a century of friendship”. The Telegraph leads on “Navy not ready for war, says Sea Lord” and the Mail headlines on “Trump’s taunt exposes a PM without a plan”. The Sun says “Beeb knew about Mills probe” and the Times runs “Children ‘incentivised’ to get ADHD and autism diagnoses”. Today in Focus The brilliant students the UK doesn’t want Why has the UK introduced a ban on student visas for four countries? Today in Focus talks to affected students in Sudan and Afghanistan, as well as our home affairs editor, Rajeev Syal. Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad A half blind, 12-year-old dog in New Mexico is being hailed as a “bear slayer” after fighting off a hungry intruder to protect her family’s animals. Honey took on the bear alone – and “not one” of more than 60 chickens, nor the other animals on the property, were harmed. Found the next morning with near fatal injuries, “it did not look like something Honey would be able to overcome,” her owner said. But she pulled through. “She is our little saviour … she risked her life to save not just the coop – but her family.” As a local shelter put it: “Honey didn’t just survive. She chose them – over and over again.” Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply
Governments across Asia are ramping up their use of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, as they try to cover huge energy shortfalls triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran. The move has triggered warnings from climate experts who point to coal’s devastating environmental impact, and say the energy crisis should be a wake up call for governments to invest in renewables, which can offer a more stable supply that is not exposed to price shocks. Across the region, from Bangladesh to South Korea, governments are trying to compensate for a drop off in imported energy, much of which comes from the Middle East. South Korea said it will delay the shutdown of coal-fired power plants and has lifted caps on electricity from coal, while in Thailand, the government has increased output at the country’s largest coal-fired plant. The Philippines, which has declared a “national energy emergency” as a result of the war, also plans to boost operations of its coal-fired power plants. In South Asia, India, which relies on coal for nearly 75% of its power generation, has asked its coal plants to run at maximum capacity and avoid planned outages, while Bangladesh increased coal-fired power generation and coal-fired power imports in March. Governments are racing to overcome shortfalls, especially in the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which has been promoted as a bridge fuel in the transition from coal to cleaner energy – though research has shown exported gas emits far more greenhouse gas than coal. Many countries in the region rely on LNG to generate electricity, as well as for industries such as fertiliser manufacturing. Demand in Asia had been forecast to double in the next 25 years. However, supplies have been cut off by the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz though which a fifth of worldwide LNG shipments pass. Strikes on a major LNG export facility in Qatar will exacerbate the shortage and have a years-long impact on the industry, say experts. Almost 30bn cubic meters of LNG has been removed from global supply chains, of which more than 80% is missing in the Indo-Pacific region, said Henning Gloystein, managing director of energy and resources at Eurasia Group. The last remaining cargoes that passed through the strait before the conflict spiralled will arrive in the next week, he said. “The global market has flipped within four weeks from quite a healthy supply surplus … into a very severe deficit – and that’s going to not just lead to price spikes, but real fuel shortages.” “Those countries that have coal reserves will be [using] that because it’s the fastest, cheapest way to replace LNG,” he added, though he noted that countries such as India are also ramping up renewable energy. Delhi has sped up clearances for commissioning of wind power plants and battery energy storage systems. Pauline Heinrichs, an expert in climate and energy at King’s College London, said the crisis should be a turning point for governments. “The impact of coal on climate and health outcomes is devastating and disastrous – and we’ve proven that this is the case for many decades. Not only does it worsen climate risks, of course, but the same goes for pollution and for toxicity,” she said. The current energy crisis underlined the importance of renewable energy “not just a climate priority, but ultimately for energy security more broadly in Asia”. “Those economies that have a substantial amount of renewable energy are in fact less vulnerable,” she said. Governments should not allow a return to coal to become baked in to the energy system in the long term, she added. “We need to learn that this is the moment to break that cycle of responding to short-term fossil fuel induced shocks with investments in fossil fuels, because they’re never short-term – they’re always long-term infrastructure investments of sorts.” “It’s not sustainable to rely on coal,” added Dinita Setyawati, senior energy analyst for Asia at thinktank Ember, who is based in Jakarta. “Homegrown renewables are definitely the way to go to improve more energy security and resilience.” Across Asia countries are searching for ways to reduce energy consumption, with the Philippines and Sri Lanka introducing four-days weeks for many government staff, and Vietnam encouraging people work from home. Bangladesh closed its universities early, bringing forward the Eid al-Fitr holidays, and has introduced more planned blackouts, while Pakistan has moved schools to remote online teaching. Gloystein added it will take years to recover LNG supplies. “This isn’t a short-term thing – people hope that next week there will be some form of a climb down or ceasefire and then we’ll go back to normal,” he said. “This is going to stay with us for a while because the damage that has been done, it’s going to take years to repair.”