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Oil prices plunge and stocks jump after Trump announces conditional ceasefire with Iran

Oil prices plunged by almost 15% after Donald Trump held off on his threat to bomb Iran into the stone ages on Tuesday night, and Iran’s foreign minister said passage through the strait of Hormuz would be allowed for the next two weeks under the management of its military. Posting to Truth Social, with just over an hour until his deadline was due to pass, the US president said he was holding off on threatened attacks on Iran’s bridges, power plants and other civilian targets, subject to Tehran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and reopening of the strait of Hormuz. Soon after, Iran’s national security council confirmed it had accepted a two-week ceasefire if attacks against Iran were halted. Tehran said peace negotiations with the US would begin in Islamabad on Friday. Although Tuesday’s news was immediately embraced by markets, the outcome of the US-Iran talks is far from certain, and how the strait will be reopened and managed beyond the two-week grace period is yet to be determined. Brent crude oil, the international standard, dropped 14.4% to $93.48, and futures for US crude oil sank 14.7% to $96.27 a barrel. The prices remain well above where it was at the start of the war. Meanwhile as trading in Asia got under way, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up almost 3%, Japan’s Nikkei rose more than 4% and South Korea’s Kospi gained 6%. In the bond market, Treasury yields eased on word of a potential ceasefire. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.24% from 4.30% earlier Tuesday. Earlier, US stocks swung sharply during regular trading as uncertainty about the war with Iran increased after Trump had threatened a “whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if Iran did not meet his 8pm ET deadline. The S+P 500 fell as much as 1.2% but stocks rallied at the end of trading after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend his deadline for another two weeks and asked Iran to open up the strait for the same amount of time. Oil prices have surged since the US and Israel struck Iran at the end of February, unleashing a conflict that has run for more than five weeks. Tehran has largely closed the strait, through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas is transported, causing an global energy crunch. With Associated Press

Middle East crisis live: Pakistan says Iran war ceasefire includes Lebanon; Tehran will allow ‘conditional passage’ through strait of Hormuz

It remains far from clear what shape a future deal between the US and Iran could take. Iranian state media is saying that the ceasefire deal is built upon a ten point plan that they submitted to the US, which includes maximalist demands that the Trump administration has rejected in the past. Danny Citrinowicz, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, has offered a sobering assessment of the outcome of America’s five week war, saying the conflict was launched with “sweeping promises: regime change in Iran, the dismantling of its missile and nuclear programs, and preventing it from threatening the Strait of Hormuz.” “And where are we now?” he asks. The regime is still firmly in power. Its missile capabilities are damaged still intact It still holds roughly 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60%. And in return? A ‘controlled’ reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, something that wasn’t even truly closed to begin with. Let’s be honest: this is not a strategic victory.”

Ukraine war briefing: Kyiv lays out how ‘Russian satellites help Iran in war’

Russian satellites made detailed imagery of military facilities and critical sites across the Middle East including US bases and other targets that were attacked by Iran soon afterwards, according to a Ukrainian intelligence assessment. Reuters reported that the assessment cited at least 24 surveys of areas in 11 Middle Eastern countries from 21-31 March, covering 46 “objects” including US and other military bases and airports and oilfields. Within days of being surveyed, military bases and headquarters were targeted by Iranian ballistic missiles and drones, the assessment said. Russian satellites were actively surveying the strait of Hormuz, according to the Ukrainians. Reuters said a western military source and a separate regional security cited their own intelligence in backing up the claims. Reuters said the Iranian foreign ministry had no immediate comment and the defence ministry in Russia did not respond to a request for comment. Reuters said its regional security source confirmed a specific incident where a Russian satellite imaged Prince Sultan airbase in Saudi Arabia days before Iran struck the facility on 27 March, hitting a sophisticated US E-3 Sentry airborne warning and control system aircraft. The next day a Russian satellite passed over again to assess the damage, the assessment said. The Ukrainian report also alleges Russian and Iranian hackers were collaborating in the cyber domain. The Ukrainian military said it had struck Russia’s Ust-Luga oil terminal in the Leningrad region on Tuesday. The general staff said on Telegram it had preliminary confirmation of damage to three storage tanks belonging to the Transneft-Baltika company. Crude oil exports from Russia’s Sheskharis terminal in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk were suspended after a big drone attack and a fire, two sources told Reuters on Tuesday. The terminal, which typically loads 700,000 barrels a day of crude oil, is Russia’s key oil outlet in the Black Sea. Its suspension will add to the strain on Russian infrastructure, which has been repeatedly attacked. Moscow’s troops targeted two buses in the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region, its governor, Oleksandr Ganzha, said on Telegram. A drone smashed into a bus approaching a stop in Nikopol’s city centre, he said, and later another bus was hit in a neighbouring community. Four people were killed in Nikopol and at least 16 injured, officials said. In the southern city of Kherson, a Russian attack on a residential area that lasted half an hour killed four elderly people and injured seven more, said the regional governor, Oleksandr Prokudin. Other deadly Russian strikes took place in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy oblasts, said Ukrainian officials. Ukrainian drone strikes killed five civilians including a 12-year-old boy and his parents in Russia and Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, Russian officials said on Tuesday. Reuters could not independently verify the officials’ statements, and Ukraine denies deliberately targeting civilians.

New Zealand asks US to send fuel tankers to Pacific to alleviate pressure caused by Iran war

New Zealand has called on the US to send fuel tankers to the Pacific to help alleviate some of the significant economic and fuel pressure caused by the war in the Middle East. Winston Peters, New Zealand’s foreign minister, met the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, in Washington on Tuesday, where they discussed bilateral relations, the war in Iran and the Pacific. After the meeting, Peters said he had made sure the US understood the “significant economic impacts on New Zealand and Pacific arising from the war”. “Not just the New Zealand economy, but to the Pacific economies that we have so much responsibility for,” Peters told the national broadcaster RNZ. “We left all that very clearly in their mind as concerns we had.” They had had a “serious discussion” over how the US might help, Peters said, including asking the US to “get some ancillary tankers ready and get them to New Zealand to spread it around the Pacific as fast as we possibly can”. He said: “We asked them: don’t leave it to when it happens, get ready just in case it’s going to happen. We had a very positive discussion on that basis.” Pacific nations are especially vulnerable to fuel supply disruptions and rising costs due to their reliance on imported fuel. In March, Pacific leaders appealed to foreign partners for help with oil supplies. The Samoan prime minister, La’aulialemalietoa Leuatea Schmidt, asked New Zealand if it was possible to divert fuel to the Island nation in case of crisis, while the Tongan prime minister, Lord Fakafanua, said New Zealand and Australia were sharing intelligence to help his country prepare for shortages. Following Peters’ and Rubio’s meeting, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire after a last-minute diplomatic intervention led by Pakistan, canceling an ultimatum from Donald Trump for Iran to surrender or face widespread destruction. Peters refused to comment on the US president’s threat to annihilate the entirety of Iranian civilisation should Iran’s government ignore his deadline to reopen the strait of Hormuz. “I don’t make comments on what presidents and prime ministers say … It’s time for cool heads and not make a rush to judgment we will regret.” New Zealand’s relationship with the US was “excellent”, Peters said, but when asked if the two nations were close friends, he laughed. “Respectful understandings amongst each other is more important, and we’ve got that.”

US warns of Iran-affiliated cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure across country

Top government security agencies issued a warning of Iran-affiliated cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure across the US on Tuesday. In a joint statement, the agencies said municipalities, especially in the water and energy sectors, should be on the lookout for unusual activity. “Cyberattacks on drinking water and wastewater systems directly threaten public health and community resilience,” Jeffrey Hall, an assistant administrator for enforcement and compliance assurance for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), said in a statement. “A single breach can disrupt treatment or introduce contaminants, damage equipment, and erode public trust.” The notice did not detail whether specific facilities had been targeted or any damage had been sustained. The agencies that issued the joint advisory include the EPA, the FBI, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the National Security Agency, the Department of Energy and the US Cyber Command. The warning came as Donald Trump has stepped up violent rhetoric against Iran, posting on social media in the early morning hours on Tuesday that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if the Middle Eastern country didn’t give into his demands. Shortly before Trump’s Tuesday evening deadline, the US and Iran agreed to a provisional ceasefire, with Tehran agreeing to reopen the strait of Hormuz if the US suspended strikes. Iran has been accused for years of carrying out cyber-attacks on various countries, including a massive power outage in Turkey in 2015 and several possible breaches of Israeli government websites in 2022. The US alleged an Iran-affiliated group known as “CyberAv3ngers” carried out a campaign against it in 2023 that compromised at least 75 devices in multiple infrastructure sectors. Iran has also accused the US and Israel of carrying out several cyber-attacks against it, including on its nuclear centrifuges and its weapons systems. Tuesday’s advisory alleged that the hackers are backed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It said the attacks were focusing on a widely used device called a “programmable logic controller” that’s specifically made by the company Rockwell Automation. Siemens, which also makes these devices, was not named. The government agencies urged any municipalities using these devices to make sure they are not connected to the internet.

Donald Trump says ‘a whole civilisation will die’ if Iran ignores demands

Donald Trump has warned that Iran’s “whole civilisation will die tonight” if Tehran did not comply with his demands, as the world braced to see if the president would deliver on his latest threat to order the mass destruction of Iranian power plants and bridges in the absence of a deal by 8pm EDT (1am BST). Iran’s Revolutionary Guards signalled they were also ready to escalate the war with a threat to retaliate “beyond the region” and “to deprive the US and its allies of oil and gas in the region for years”, suggesting Iran would target oil and gas production facilities in the Gulf and elsewhere, potentially sending the world into a recession. The White House issued a statement on Tuesday insisting the US was not considering the use of a nuclear weapon after the vice-president, JD Vance, triggered concern with a warning that US forces had tools they “so far haven’t decided to use”. But by threatening Iranian “civilization”, Trump appeared unwilling to dispel doubts he was prepared to commit serious war crimes by targeting the country’s population. On Sunday, he said US bombing would destroy all Iran’s power stations and bridges within fours hours of his deadline. Late on Tuesday, Pope Leo described Trump’s threats as “truly unacceptable” and urged people across the world to contact their political leaders to call on them to bring the conflict to an end. “Today as we all know there was this threat against all the people of Iran. This is truly unacceptable,” he said. The pope added that attacks on civilian infrastructure were “against international law, but … also a sign of the hatred, the division, the destruction the human beings are capable of, and that we all want to work for peace”. With Trump’s deadline looming, there was little sign of Pakistani-led peace efforts bearing fruit, with Iran unwilling to give up its main point of leverage, the near-total closure of the strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for the flow of oil, gas and petrochemicals such as fertiliser from the Gulf, in return for a temporary ceasefire. Hours before the deadline, Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan’s prime minister, publicly requested that Trump delay his ultimatum to Iran by two weeks in order to “allow diplomacy to run its course”. Sharif did not offer any specific updates on the negotiations, but said diplomatic efforts were “progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully, with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future”. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told Axios that Trump “had been made been aware of the proposal, and a response will come”. Sharif also requested that Iran open the strait of Hormuz “as a goodwill gesture” and that “all warring parties” observe a two-week ceasefire. Reuters cited a senior Iranian official as saying that Tehran was reviewing the ceasefire proposal “positively”. However, reports indicated explosions in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday evening, as sirens were heard in Bahrain, where local residents have been requested to shelter in place, and interceptors were said to have engaged targets over the United Arab Emirates. Mohammad Reza Aref, Iran’s first vice-president, said the country was ready for all possibilities as the deadline approached. “National security and infrastructure sustainability are the subject of our precise calculations,” he wrote on social media. “The government has finalised the necessary measures in detail for all scenarios. No threat is beyond our preparedness and intelligence.” Earlier on X, Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said: “More than 14 million proud Iranians have so far registered to sacrifice their lives to defend Iran. I too have been, am and will remain devoted to giving my life for Iran.” Tehran has presented its own 10-point plan, insisting on long-term security guarantees, which Trump has rejected as “not good enough”. After days of escalating threats, Trump posted a warning on social media Tuesday: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.” The president has set deadlines before and allowed them to pass over the five weeks of the conflict, but he insisted on Tuesday the ensuing hours would be “one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World” unless “something revolutionarily wonderful” happened, with “less radicalized minds” in Iran’s leadership. Amir-Saeid Iravani, Iran’s representative at the UN, said that Trump’s threats constituted “incitement to war crimes – and potentially genocide”. During a security council session on the strait of Hormuz, Iravani said: “Iran will not stand idle in the face of such egregious war crimes. It will exercise, without hesitation, its inherent right of self-defence and will take immediate and proportionate reciprocal measures.” Through his spokesperson, the UN secretary-general, António Guterres, issued a reminder on Monday that attacking civilian infrastructure is banned under international law, but Trump declared on the same day he was “not at all” concerned about being called a war criminal. Officers in the chain of command are obligated under US and international law not to carry out blatantly unlawful orders but it was unclear whether there was anyone left in Trump’s entourage willing to intervene to stop him. In the hours before Trump’s deadline, Israel mounted its own attacks on Iran’s infrastructure. A rail bridge in the central city of Kashan was one of the first reported bombed on Tuesday by Iranian state media, with two people reportedly killed as Israel’s military said it had launched “a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting dozens of infrastructure sites”. A bridge over a railway line near Karaj, to the north-west of Tehran, was hit, according to Iranian media, and power outages were reported in the same city after a substation and transmission lines were bombed. Bridges near Qom and Tabriz were also reportedly hit. The US also struck 50 military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island, the home to its main oil export terminal, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had attacked Saudi Arabia’s Jubail petrochemical complex in retaliation for strikes on an Iranian petrochemical facility the night before. Israel’s military, writing in Farsi on social media, said on Tuesday morning that “from this moment” – 8.50am Iran time – until 9pm, Iranians should refrain from “travelling by train throughout Iran” for the sake of their own security. “Your presence on trains and near railway lines endangers your life,” the statement continued in a clear warning that stations and tracks normally used by civilians would be bombed on Tuesday. Iranian media reported on Tuesday that the Khorramabad airport, in western Iran, had been attacked, and Israel said it had conducted another wave of strikes on Tehran overnight. Israel’s military said it had bombed a petrochemical facility in Shiraz, where it said nitric acid used to make explosives was produced, as well as a ballistic missile launch site in north-western Iran. Israel’s military expressed regret on Tuesday for damage caused to a synagogue in Tehran, claiming it was “collateral damage” from a strike against a “senior military target”. Iranian media said the synagogue, serving the capital’s small Jewish population, had been destroyed.

Vance’s whirlwind visit may not help Orbán to the election victory he craves

Even before the plane carrying JD and Usha Vance had landed in Budapest, the Hungarian government had hailed their two-day visit as a new golden age in the relationship between Washington and Budapest. What came next was a whirlwind of politics in which the US vice-president waded directly into the country’s heated election campaign, just days before Hungarians cast their ballots. As Vance crisscrossed the capital, turning up at the city’s Carmelite monastery and a later at a pre-election rally, he lauded Viktor Orbán and lambasted the US and Hungary’s “shared threat from within” of far-left ideology in universities, media and entertainment, all while breaking sharply with the unspoken convention that has long kept most politicians from playing an active role in foreign elections. Vance’s sharpest criticism of the day was reserved for the EU in comments that were likely to roil the already tense transatlantic relationship. Vance attacked the bloc, accusing it of foreign interference, even as he repeatedly stressed he had travelled to Hungary to “help” Orbán in the elections. Hours later Vance joined Orbán at a pre-election rally, sending the packed football stadium into a frenzy as he dialled up Donald Trump and put the US president on speaker. “I love Hungary and I love that Viktor,” Trump told the cheering crowd as Vance held up the phone, describing him as a “fantastic man”. The president, who earlier had warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Tehran did not accept his demands in the US war in Iran, appeared to shift easily into campaign mode. “He’s kept your country good,” he told the crowd, as giant flags of the US and Hungary hung from the rafters. “And let me tell you, I like him a lot but if I didn’t think he did a good job, I wouldn’t be making a call like this.” Meanwhile, the president’s eldest son was in Bosnia’s Serb Republic, making a show of support for its ousted pro-Russian leader Milorad Dodik, and criticising the European Union as “a disaster”. Vance’s visit thrusts the US administration into a hard-fought campaign in which most polls suggest Orbán is facing the possibility of losing his 16-year grip on power. As Hungarians grapple with economic stagnation, deteriorating public services and rampant corruption, Orbán is facing an unprecedented challenge from Péter Magyar, a former top member of Orbán’s Fidesz party. While officials in Budapest had held hopes that Trump himself would show up to help the Orbán campaign, they erupted in excitement when the White House confirmed Vance’s visit. On Tuesday, as Air Force Two landed in Budapest, the country’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, described the visit as historic. “There is no question that this is a golden age for Hungarian-American relations,” he said. The day laid bare the shared playbook between Orbán and the Maga movement as the leaders railed against Brussels, migration, Ukraine and praised what Vance described as “the values of western civilisation.” Throughout it all, Vance made little effort to conceal his intentions. “I am here for a simple reason, because I admire what you are fighting for,” he told the evening rally, sending the sea of Hungarian flags waving. “You are fighting for your freedom, for your sovereignty, and I am here because President Trump and I wish for your success and we are fighting right here with you.” There was no mention, however, of the grievances that have propelled the opposition Tisza party to the top of the polls; a long-neglected public health system, wages that remain the third lowest in the EU and systemic corruption that ranks as the worst in the bloc. Nor was there any mention of the scandals that have dogged Orbán during the campaign, from the allegations that Russian intelligence agencies, along with disinformation networks with links to Russia, were working to sway the election in his favour to the call in which Orbán reportedly told Vladimir Putin: “I am at your service”. The clash of narratives has given rise to a polarising electoral campaign, in which Orbán has sought to portray the war in Ukraine as the country’s greatest threat, arguing that his personal relationships with world leaders makes him singularly capable of keeping Hungary peaceful, while Magyar has called on Hungarians to cast their vote based on domestic issues. Even as the visit made headlines across the globe, analysts doubted it would do much to shift the election result. “The vast majority of Hungary’s 7.6 million voters have made up their minds regarding where their crosses are going on Sunday’s ballots,” said Mujtaba Rahman, the managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy on social media. “Few of the 350,000 or so who haven’t and who might yet vote are likely to be persuaded by the razzmatazz provided by Vance’s soiree in town.” Adding to this was the fact that Trump’s popularity among Hungarian society is questionable, while far fewer know who Vance is, said Márton Bene, a political analyst at the TK Institute for Political Science in Budapest. “[Trump’s] support in itself constitutes a real advantage only in the eyes of an increasingly narrow segment of voters.” However, Bene saw potential for Vance’s visit to stir up controversy in the days after the election, given Vance’s sharp accusations of electoral interference from Brussels. “This provided an external reference point, articulated at the highest level, for that narrative, which could later offer important discursive resources for attempts to question the election result,” he said. But the visit could have done more harm for Orbán than good, added Bene. For months the prime minister had sought to argue that he – and his connections – were the only means of keeping Hungary safe in a volatile world. During the press conference, however, Vance had said the US administration would work with any Hungarian administration that was elected. “Péter Magyar was quick to seize on this statement,” said Bene, in a reference to the swift rejoinder the opposition candidate posted on social media, in which he said a Tisza government would regard the US as a key partner. The result, said Bene, had “cast doubt” on one of the central claims of Orbán’s campaign – one that the entire visit was aimed at highlighting. “Namely, that effective Hungarian interest representation is conceivable only through Orbán’s personal relationships.”

JD Vance accuses EU of ‘interference’ as he visits Hungary to help Orbán win election

JD Vance has railed against the EU, accusing it of blatantly interfering in Hungary’s upcoming elections, even as the US vice-president said he had travelled to Budapest to “help” Viktor Orbán win Sunday’s vote. Speaking to reporters shortly after landing in Budapest on Tuesday, Vance’s tone was combative as he alleged that the EU was responsible for “one of the worst examples of foreign election interference” he had ever seen. “The bureaucrats in Brussels have tried to destroy the economy of Hungary,” he said. Gesturing to Orbán, he added: “They have tried to make Hungary less energy-independent. They have tried to drive up costs for Hungarian consumers. And they’ve done it all because they hate this guy.” Vance, however, made no effort to conceal the reason he had arrived in the country five days before a heated election in which Orbán is facing the possibility of being ousted after 16 years in power. “Of course, I want to help, as much as I possibly can, the prime minister as he faces this election season,” said Vance. Later, at a campaign rally with Orbán, Vance dialled up Donald Trump, putting his phone’s speaker to the on-stage microphone as the US president offered a glowing endorsement of the Hungarian prime minister. “I love Hungary and I love that Viktor,” Trump told the cheering crowd. “He’s done a fantastic job.” Hungarians are on Sunday due to cast their votes in a pivotal parliamentary election, in which Orbán is facing an unprecedented challenge from Péter Magyar, a former top member of the ruling Fidesz party. The election has pitted two distinct versions of Hungary’s future against each other, as Orbán and Fidesz seek to convince voters that the war in Ukraine poses a deep threat to the country and that Orbán is best placed to handle this risk, while Magyar and his Tisza party have urged voters to focus on domestic issues such as economic stagnation, fraying social services and corruption. Tuesday’s press conference saw Vance drawn into Orbán’s efforts to paint Ukraine as the country’s top threat, with Vance telling reporters that he was aware of Ukrainian intelligence services trying to “put the thumb” on the scale of American elections. “This is just what they do,” said Vance. He singled out “people in the Ukrainian system” who had campaigned alongside Democrats before the 2024 US presidential election. Hours later, Orbán posted a video to social media in which Vance could be heard praising the Hungarian leader for keeping Europe “strong and prosperous”. Orbán, said Vance, was “one of the only true statesmen in Europe”. The adulation comes as Orbán’s relationship with the EU has plummeted to new lows, amid clashes on migration, LGBTQ+ rights and, most recently, Orbán’s refusal to sign off on a €90bn loan to Ukraine. At the evening rally – called a “Day of Friendship” event – Vance delivered further attacks on the EU. “I’m not telling you exactly who to vote for, but what I am telling you is that the bureaucrats in Brussels, those people, should not be listened to,” he said. “Listen to your hearts, listen to your souls, and listen to the sovereignty of the Hungarian people.” He added: “I see that those who hate Europe the most, who hate its borders, its energy independence, the people who hate its Christian heritage, they hate one man above all others and his name is Viktor Orbán. And if they hate him, it means he’s on your side.” Vance’s attack on Brussels came amid mounting scrutiny over Budapest’s ties to the Kremlin. On Tuesday – after previous allegations that Russian intelligence agencies, along with disinformation networks with links to Russia, were working to sway the election in Orbán’s favour – it was reported that Orbán had told Vladimir Putin: “I am at your service” in an October call. On Tuesday, Bloomberg News said it had obtained a Hungarian government transcript of a call that took place between Orbán and Putin on 17 October, in which Orbán reportedly compared the relationship to that of a “mouse” standing ready to help the Russian “lion” as needed. “Yesterday our friendship rose to such a high level that I can help in any way,” Orbán reportedly told Putin in the call. “In any matter where I can be of assistance, I am at your service.” Orbán has long been the EU’s most Moscow-friendly leader, maintaining Hungary’s heavy reliance on Russian oil and gas while his foreign minister reportedly regularly updated his Russian counterpart with details of confidential EU meetings and worked to amend the EU sanctions list to Moscow’s liking. Vance praised Orbán for being a “great example” in Europe on energy security and independence, in what appeared to be a reference to Hungary’s continued reliance on the imports of Russian oil and gas. Vance said European leaders, in contrast, had made a “huge mistake” in cutting off oil and natural gas from the “east”. A report last month showed that Hungary’s reliance on Russia had increased since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Russia now accounting for 93% of the country’s crude oil imports compared with 61% in 2021. Vance’s remarks seemingly contradicted US efforts to push its allies to break with Russian energy, with Trump excoriating other EU countries for moving to cease their imports of Russian fossil fuels in response to the war. The EU, meanwhile, hit back at the claims. “Going back to importing from Russia – a greatly unreliable supplier that is waging an atrocious war against Ukraine – would be a strategic mistake,” said a spokesperson. In the transcript of the October call revealed on Tuesday, Putin reportedly praised Hungary’s “independent and flexible” stance on his war against Ukraine. “It is incomprehensible to us that such a balanced, middle-ground position only generates counterarguments,” said the Russian president, according to the transcript. Hungary – which has broken with most EU countries by refusing to help Ukraine with financial assistance or weapons – was also praised by Vance. “Your leadership has been a far, far more important and constructive partner for peace than almost anyone, anywhere else in the world,” the US vice-president told Orbán. He lauded Orbán – whose “illiberal democracy” has caused the country to plunge in press freedom rankings, face accusations of no longer being a full democracy and become the most corrupt in the EU – as an ally to Trump in the defence of western civilisation. When asked whether the US administration would be willing to work with another Hungarian government if Orbán failed to win another term, Vance said yes, but that he did not expect a change in government. “Viktor Orbán is going to win the next election in Hungary, so I feel very confident about that and about our continued positive relationship,” he said. As Orbán and Fidesz lag in the polls, rightwing leaders from around the world have sought to rally behind him, catapulting the election in this central European country of about 9.5 million people on to the global stage as it becomes a wider symbol of the resilience of far-right movements. On Tuesday, Magyar, whose Tisza party is leading in most polls, directly addressed Vance’s visit to Budapest. “No foreign country may interfere in Hungarian elections,” he said on social media. “This is our country. Hungarian history is not written in Washington, Moscow or Brussels – it is written in Hungarian streets and squares.”