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Middle East crisis live: Israel launches new attacks on Tehran and Beirut as Trump lays out objectives

Earlier, UK prime minister Keir Starmer said that his government does not “believe in regime change from the skies” as he set out to parliament why Britain will not join its closest military partner in offensive action against Iran – suggesting that to do so would be unlawful. He told the House of Commons: This government does not believe in regime change from the skies. The lessons of history have taught us that it is important when we make decisions like this, that we establish there is a lawful basis for what the United Kingdom is doing. Last night, Starmer announced that the UK had agreed to a US request to use British military bases for “defensive” strikes on Iranian missile sites. Per my colleague Andrew Sparrow, the UK PM has been under pressure from the left and the right for first saying the UK would not get involved in the US-Israeli strikes on Iran and then allowing the US to use UK bases in their operations after criticism from Donald Trump. Addressing that criticism before parliament on Monday afternoon, he said that Iran’s “outrageous actions” could not be ignored and that the UK would continue engaging in defensive actions while still not joining in on the strikes. “I am not prepared to commit our military service people to action unless I am sure that what they’re doing is lawful,” Starmer added.

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More than 100,000 Britons stranded in Gulf, with airspace closed to most flights

More than 100,000 Britons were stranded in the Gulf on Monday, with airspace in the region still closed to most flights and overland evacuation regarded as risky while Iran continues to launch missile and drone strikes across the region. Downing Street said UK officials were considering all options to get citizens home safely, including using commercial, charter and military flights and bussing evacuees across land borders into Saudi Arabia and Turkey. “The increasingly reckless strikes from the Iranian regime targeting Gulf allies, including strikes on bases, airports and on hotels, directly put British lives at risk,” Keir Starmer’s spokesperson said. “The safety and security of those British nationals remains this government’s top priority. “We know people right across the country will be deeply concerned by the scale of this crisis, in particular the British nationals, including holidaymakers and transit passengers who are currently in the region and being told to shelter in place. “We always recommend they follow FCDO [Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office] advice but want people to get back home as quickly as possible, and we are looking at all options.” The Foreign Office has set up 24/7 consular support to assist Britons in the region to manage the fast-evolving situation, including deploying teams of extra staff to work with the travel industry and governments. Given the huge numbers involved – with more than 200,000 Britons believed to be in the region, half whom have “registered their presence” with the Foreign Office – the quickest route to get them out would be for commercial flights to resume. A few, selected passenger planes were due to lift off from Abu Dhabi and Dubai’s international airports on Monday evening, with thousands of passengers understood to be stuck there in transit after their flights were grounded. However, with Iranian airstrikes on the wider Gulf – where the majority of Britons in the region are based – expected to continue this week and potentially beyond, passenger jets remain a risky option, while military-run evacuations could be even more dangerous. The UK government has been drawing up contingency plans to bus people to Saudi Arabia to enable them to fly home if airspace in the UAE remains largely closed because of strikes. A more limited evacuation route for those in other parts of the Middle East could potentially go through Turkey. The UAE government is currently covering the cost of hotels and meals for people who are stranded there but it is unclear if it will continue to do so if flights remain grounded longer term. The Foreign Office has advised against travel to Iran, Israel and Palestine, and against all but essential travel to Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE, with further instructions to avoid travel to some parts of Pakistan. Even if most of the long-term residents in the Gulf intend to stay put for now, hoping that hostilities remain relatively contained, a potential evacuation of Britons could dwarf the numbers rescued from abroad in other crises. The UK government has recent form in mass repatriation, from the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic to the failure of travel firms Monarch and Thomas Cook and a supporting role in the US evacuation of nationals from Kabul. It also organised a small number of charter flights out of Israel when Benjamin Netanyahu’s government launched strikes on Iran nine months ago. Sir Simon Fraser, chair of the Chatham House thinktank, said on social media: “Having run the Foreign Office during the Arab spring, I can say from experience that any attempt to evacuate all British nationals from the Gulf states if commercial carriers were not flying would be extraordinarily hard and complex.” In crises with a different geography, Britain’s own airlines might have transported the bulk of UK citizens: but the Gulf airlines, Emirates, Etihad and Qatar, now collectively dominate their skies as much as their logos cover Britain’s stadiums and teams. The home of Emirates alone, Dubai, welcomed a million Britons in the last year, the biggest source of Gulf tourists in Western Europe. Emirates operates the world’s largest fleet of superjumbos, the Airbus A380s capable of carrying 500 passengers at a time, with multiple flights daily to London Heathrow, and other services to UK airports including Birmingham, Manchester and Edinburgh. Compared to Covid, any UK rescue flights would be from a comparatively compact geographical area, but one at the crossroads of global aviation. Aviation analyst John Strickland said: “The numbers are so vast. It affects people who are not caught up directly in the situation but are stuck elsewhere in the world, due to be transiting. The capacity elsewhere to move people who would be going through the Gulf is limited.” In terms of absolute numbers, the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority can point to having brought more than 110,000 passengers back to the UK in 2017 after the collapse of Monarch airlines, chartering planes from airlines including easyJet and Qatar at a cost of £60m to the taxpayer. What ministers boasted was the UK’s largest peacetime repatriation was superseded two years later when Thomas Cook similarly went bust, with 150,000 people brought home at a cost of £83m. “It’s one thing to put rescue flights in when an airline goes bust, but this is a military situation,” said Strickland. Although the US commandeered some passenger aircraft for the evacuation of Kabul in 2021, it also crammed many people on to military transporters, flying via the Gulf. “The UK could put military aircraft in but we don’t have many transporters – and it’s a drop in the ocean compared to what is normally operated by Emirates and the others,” Strickland added.

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‘They don’t care about Lebanon’: anger with Hezbollah boils as war returns to weary Beirut

Abu Yehya and his two sons awoke to the sound of bombing in the early hours of Monday morning. A dozen blasts, one just a few hundred metres away, sent them into the streets of Beirut’s southern suburbs. They walked for four hours, bleary-eyed, until they reached the same spot in downtown Beirut where they had fled during the last conflict, 18 months earlier, and curled up on the asphalt. There, they learned Hezbollah had struck Israel, and Lebanon was once again at war. “The kids were terrified, they were screaming. It was exactly like the last time, we knew from the very first moment what it was. War is war,” said Abu Yehya, a 41-year-old day labourer, as he clutched his sons close to him. He was one of tens of thousands of people who fled their homes in Lebanon on Monday as Israeli bombs pounded the country. Hezbollah had launched a volley of rockets at Israel in retaliation for the US-Israeli killing of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israel quickly responded, hitting the southern suburbs of Beirut, the Bekaa valley and south Lebanon. Israel’s overnight strikes were just the beginning. By the afternoon, the Israeli army had told residents of more than 50 villages in Lebanon to evacuate, and the sound of warplanes flying low over Beirut rattled windows. The head of Israel’s military, Lt Gen Eyal Zamir, said: “The IDF will not conclude the campaign before the threat from Lebanon is eliminated.” By Monday evening, at least 52 people had been killed and 29,000 were displaced to emergency shelters, numbers that were expected to increase, the country’s ministry of social affairs said. In Beirut, anger boiled over Hezbollah’s decision to enter the war with Israel, and drag the rest of the country with it. “I was so, so upset when I learned we had entered the war. We are exhausted from all these wars,” Abu Yehya said. “Us adults, we will die when we die, but our children are a different story. They are frightened.” As he spoke from Martyrs’ Square in Beirut, families tried to sleep under the harsh morning sun, crowded together on thin foam mattresses. Passenger vans stuffed with blankets and suitcases clogged the streets, women with furrowed brows staring out at the city. The scenes were eerily similar to 18 months earlier, when an Israeli campaign of bombing and the detonation of Hezbollah pagers sent people into the streets and overwhelmed hospitals. Then, the shock of the assault brought a sense of solidarity to the country: blood banks had lines out the door and health authorities had to issue a statement saying donations of vital organs, including eyes, were not medically possible. This time, the assault was met with a sense of weary resignation and smouldering anger. Even among the popular base of the group, the self-titled “community” of Hezbollah supporters, Hezbollah’s entry into the war provoked shock. A woman from the Hezbollah-dominated southern suburbs of Beirut, who declined to give her name, said: “For two years Israel has been bombing Lebanon and Hezbollah has not replied even once. Now, Iran is bombed for two days and they burn the whole country for them? They don’t care about Lebanon.” For weeks, Lebanese officials had passed warnings to Hezbollah that if it entered the war with Israel on the side of Iran, the entire country would suffer. Hezbollah, in turn, had reassured Lebanese officials that it would stand behind the state’s decision to stay out of the war. The group’s decision to bomb Israel anyway created a deep sense of betrayal in the Lebanese government and particularly the Lebanese armed forces, both of which felt they were misled. The Lebanese government quickly condemned the move, issuing a decision to ban Hezbollah from all security and military functions in the country, ordering the armed group to act as a political party only. The cabinet instructed the judiciary to arrest those who fired the rockets at Israel, and told the Lebanese army to prevent any more rockets from being launched from Lebanon at other countries. The decision was unprecedented, as the Lebanese government had tried to avoid any confrontation with Hezbollah for the last 18 months, fearful of sparking civil conflict. War came to Lebanon anyway. People stopped on the streets of Beirut and craned their necks to the sky to try to spot the Israeli drone above, whose buzz – which had become a constant in the cityscape over the last two years – now felt deeply ominous. The rumble of fighter jets brought people running to their balconies as they waited for the booms of airstrikes which followed just a few seconds later. In Martyrs’ Square, Abu Yehya was unsure what to do next. The shelters he visited were full, and his children were tired of sitting on the rough asphalt. “We hear there is a park south of Beirut in Khaldeh, maybe we will head there. At least there will be shade,” he said.

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‘A constant state of anxiety’: Britons caught up in Middle East conflict

After the US-Israel attack on Iran and the disruption to travel, some flights are beginning to restart. Dubai Airports said “limited” flights would resume on Monday evening, three days after they were cancelled. British people living in the Middle East or travelling through the region told the Guardian about how they were struggling to know what to do in an ever-changing situation. Others spoke about their efforts to return to the UK. Here are some of their experiences: ‘We’re getting very little sleep, feeling trapped, and the kids are nervous’ Frankie, her husband and their three small children have been living in the underground car park of their apartment building in Bahrain since Saturday’s attack. They live in Muharraq near the coast, and Frankie, 37, who works in education, says missiles and drones are being intercepted above them. “We have been sleeping on the floor and trying to keep our children occupied as we hear sirens and explosions,” says Frankie, whose children are five, six and nine. “We can go to our apartment to use the bathroom, get snacks and toys for the children in between the sirens going off on our phones,” says Frankie, who moved with her family to Bahrain from Leeds two and a half years ago. “We’re getting very little sleep, feeling trapped, and the kids are nervous. It’s been hard to explain to them what’s happening, but we’ve been teaching them charades and playing leapfrog and the Bahraini community has really pulled together. Frankie says they registered with the embassy, and had already stocked up on food before the attack. They had visas arranged to go to Saudi Arabia should they need to; however, she adds that they do not think they will be able to leave and flights have been cancelled. “Some of our friends have left, others are staying. We don’t want to leave Bahrain, but living like this is unsustainable.” ‘This is our home – we don’t want to leave unless we absolutely have to’ Lucy*, 45, who lives in Dubai with her husband and two sons, said the shelves of her local supermarket cleared within hours of the attack on Iran. “Once news broke friends were saying there were queues for petrol,” she says. “The shelves of our local supermarket were clear – there was no pasta, no milk and the meat aisle was empty. It has shades of the Covid era, with people initially panic buying and the streets empty of people, and schools in the region moving to online learning.” Lucy, who works in education and is from the Midlands, moved to Dubai with her husband and sons, now 12 and 16, three years ago. “We live near an airbase, which is doing a lot to intercept the constant barrage of missiles and drones,” she says, adding that her youngest is having to wear noise-cancelling earphones. “We are living in a constant state of anxiety.” While some expats are considering leaving Dubai once the airspace opens, she feels staying there is safer than being in transit. “We have a ‘grab bag’ by the door just in case, but we are trusting that we are safe and the government is doing an incredible job protecting its people,” she says. “There has been the suggestion of getting people to Saudi – but that is an 11-hour journey. This is our home, and we have pets. We don’t want to leave unless we absolutely have to.” ‘The coach fares to Riyadh have increased’ Saif has been living in Saudi Arabia for 12 years and was in Dubai with his parents and son for the weekend when the attacks happened. He left on Sunday and travelled 18 hours by coach to get back home to Riyadh, while his family, including his 11-year-old son and parents, stayed in Dubai with his cousins. “My parents were over in Riyadh visiting us from Manchester,” says Saif, 40, who works in the museum and immersive arts sector. “I am trying to get my parents and son booked on another coach so they can join me in Riyadh. Since yesterday [Sunday], the fares have slightly increased.” He said another option was for him to drive back to Dubai to pick them up, as health problems mean his mother cannot travel without stopping regularly. “We are waiting to see how things work out,” he says. “Most of their luggage and medications are here in Riyadh.” He said Dubai was “very calm” when he left on Sunday. “You can hear everything, feel the vibrations, even if you don’t see an explosion,” he says. “It’s very scary, but it’s also very much under control. Everyone is being looked after.” Saif, his son and his parents were scheduled to travel back to Manchester on 12 March for Eid. “That could still happen,” he says. “The worst-case scenario, which is not so bad, is that I have to drive back to Dubai and pick them up and bring them back to Riyadh.” He adds: “This whole situation shows us to a tiny degree, what it must be like for the people of Gaza and Palestine, Ukraine and in conflict zones around the world. Hopefully, the world can reflect on this moment and think about ways we can come back together.” ‘We just want to get home’ Heleyne Hammersley was on her way back from a holiday in Malaysia with her partner, en route to Dubai to catch their connecting flight to Edinburgh, when they learned their trip would be unexpectedly extended. “We circled Dubai airport on Saturday morning for about an hour before we were allowed to land, and then discovered that everything was cancelled,” she says. Hammersley, who lives in Carlisle and had been holidaying to celebrate her 60th birthday, says initially they “struggled to get information”. She adds: “It was a bit chaotic at first, but Emirates eventually got organised and piled us all on to buses and dropped us at various hotels around the city. “We’ve heard the odd explosion and seen smoke, but there’s no real sense of panic among the people staying in the hotel. People are frustrated, fed up and tired, but I’m not getting any sense that anybody’s been especially panicky. I think everybody’s kind of resigned to it.” Hammersley, a supply teacher, says they have booked a flight back to the UK for Thursday, landing at Newcastle, although they will still have to pick up their car from Edinburgh. “We took the Newcastle flight as that was the soonest we could get back,” she says. “Obviously, we don’t know if that will go ahead, because we don’t know if the airspace will be open or not. The hotel is OK, we’re being fed, but we really just want to get home.” *Name has been changed

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Trump vows to continue ‘large-scale operations’ and details Iran objectives after refusing to rule out boots on the ground – live

Press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that “49 of the most senior Iranian regime leaders” have been killed during the Operation Epic Fury so far. This includes supreme leader Ali Khamenei. “Preventing this radical regime and its terrorist leaders from threatening America and our core national security interests is a clear-eyed and necessary objective,” she wrote in a post on X.

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US-Israel war on Iran dramatically expands across Middle East

The war in the Middle East triggered by the joint US and Israeli attack on Iran expanded dramatically on Monday, with casualties and destruction reported across at least nine countries, including major strikes on Tehran. Israeli and US warplanes launched a fresh wave of strikes across Iran, where the Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS) said more than 500 people had been killed since the conflict began. Israel also launched an intense wave of attacks into Lebanon after Hezbollah struck at northern Israel in retaliation for the Israeli strike on Saturday that killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian attacks were reported on oil infrastructure and other targets across a 1,200-mile swathe of the region – with damage inflicted from the Gulf of Oman, where a bomb-carrying drone boat exploded against an oil tanker, to Cyprus, targeting a British military base. The US military said Kuwait’s air defences had mistakenly shot down three American F-15E fighters during an Iranian attack. All six crew members were safely recovered. Video showed one of the planes spiralling out of the sky, an engine lit up in flames, until it hit the ground and exploded in a fireball. Black smoke rose above the area around the US embassy in Kuwait, where there was a heavy presence of security, ambulances and fire trucks. There were loud blasts in Dubai and Samha in the United Arab Emirates, and in Doha, the capital of Qatar. Saudi Arabia shut its biggest refinery after drone strikes caused a fire there, one of a number of oil installations that became targets. In the first strike to reach US allies in Europe, a drone hit Britain’s Akrotiri airbase in Cyprus overnight. Britain and Cyprus said the damage was limited and there were no casualties. The effort to oust Iran’s leadership is the biggest US foreign policy gamble in decades. The US president, Donald Trump, repeated his calls for Iranians to rise up and overthrow their leaders, and said the air campaign could last weeks, telling CNN the “big wave” of attacks was yet to come. “We’re knocking the crap out of them … The big wave hasn’t even happened. The big one is coming soon,” Trump told the network. In the first public remarks by an administration official since the war began on Saturday, the US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, said the US goals were to destroy Iran’s navy, its ballistic missiles production, and its potential to produce a nuclear weapon. He repeatedly said the US would not get bogged down in the conflict, saying that the US operation was not a “democracy-building exercise” and that “this is not Iraq. This is not endless.” The US military said B-2 stealth bombers struck Iran’s ballistic missile facilities with 2,000-pound bombs. Trump said 10 Iranian warships had been sunk and that the Iranian navy’s headquarters had been “largely destroyed”. Within Iran, where residents have jammed highways to flee cities as bombs fell, there was uncertainty about the future and emotion ranging from apprehension to euphoria. One Tehran resident said that Monday’s bombardment of the capital was the heaviest so far and seemed to be more indiscriminate with missiles striking across the city. He said hospitals and clinics were among the buildings damaged. “We are becoming like Gaza,” he said. Another resident, Hosna, a 45-year-old lawyer, said: “Every time we hear the noises [of explosions], we get scared for just a second. But we experience some joy and excitement every time we hear a strike.” The IRCS put the death toll in Iran at 555 and said more than 130 cities across the country had come under attack. Israeli officials said its strikes on Monday were aimed at command and control centres and senior leaders of the ruling regime. In Israel, 11 people have been killed, and 52 in Lebanon, according to authorities. European allies distanced themselves from Trump’s initial decision to go to war, saying it fell short of the legal threshold of meeting an imminent threat. But they have since said they would participate to help suppress Iran’s ability to retaliate, after Tehran struck their allies. A senior White House official told Reuters that Washington would at some point talk with Tehran, but not yet. “President Trump said new potential leadership in Iran has indicated they want to talk and eventually he will talk. For now, Operation Epic Fury continues unabated,” the official said. It remained unclear what the longer-term prospects were for Iran to rebuild its leadership and replace Khamenei, 86. Iran’s elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said on Sunday a leadership council comprised of himself, the judiciary head and a member of the powerful guardian council had temporarily assumed the duties of the supreme leader. In a post on X on Monday, Ali Larijani, the powerful head of Tehran’s supreme national security council, said Iran would not negotiate with Trump, who had “delusional ambitions” and was now worried about US casualties. “Iran, unlike the United States, has prepared itself for a long war,” he posted. In Jerusalem, booms rattled windows as missiles launched by Iran towards central Israel were intercepted. An Israeli military spokesperson said there had been fewer attacks targeting Israel overnight since Sunday, which he attributed to Israeli strikes degrading Iran’s military capabilities. Hezbollah had made “a big mistake” by “joining Iran’s war”, he said. Shipments through the strait of Hormuz – where about a fifth of the world’s oil trade passes along the Iranian coast – have been halted after threats from Iran and strikes against tankers. Oil prices leapt by double-digit percentage points on Monday and stock markets fell. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday they had hit three US and UK oil tankers in the Gulf and the strait of Hormuz as well as attacking military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain with drones and missiles. Shipping data showed hundreds of vessels including oil and gas tankers dropping anchor in nearby waters. Global air travel was also heavily disrupted as airstrikes kept major Middle Eastern airports closed. The UN nuclear watchdog had no indication Israeli and US attacks on Iran had hit any nuclear facilities, the International Atomic Energy Agency chief, Rafael Grossi, said on Monday, despite Iran’s envoy stating one was targeted a day earlier. Iran’s nuclear programme is among the reasons Israel and the US have given for the attacks, alleging Iran was getting too close to being able to eventually make a nuclear bomb. However, what remains of Iran’s atomic facilities after the two militaries attacked them in June appears to have been largely spared in this campaign so far. “We have no indication that any of the nuclear installations … have been damaged or hit,” Grossi said in a statement to a meeting of his agency’s 35-nation board of governors.

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Gas prices soar and oil jumps as Iran war pushes down global stock markets

Gas prices surged on Monday and oil rose sharply as an escalation in the US-Israel war on Iran caused major disruption to production and supplies. QatarEnergy, the state-owned energy company, said it had halted production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after attacks on facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed. A drone attacked its energy facility in Ras Laffan, according to a statement from Qatar’s defence ministry. There were no reports of human casualties, it said. The company, which is one of the biggest producers of LNG in the world, said in a statement on social media that it “values its relationships with all of its stakeholders and will continue to communicate the latest available information”. The Dutch day-ahead gas contract – the European benchmark – jumped 41% to €45 per megawatt hour (MWh), up from €32 on Friday. The day-ahead contract for gas in the UK was also up sharply by 40% at 110p a therm. The shutdown at the world’s biggest export facility could result in the loss of almost 20% of the global LNG supply, at a time when the market is still feeling the effect of the energy crisis in 2022. While Qatar supplied about 6.5% of UK LNG imports over the past year, according to the energy analyst Cornwall Insight, the shutdown threatens to push more heavily exposed Asian buyers into competition with Europe and ramp up prices across the market. Jess Ralston, the head of energy at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said the price spike “is a worrying sign that bills for both homes and businesses could rise again” in the UK. The turmoil in the Middle East also triggered a sharp rise in oil prices. Brent crude jumped by as much as 13% during early trading – to hit $82 a barrel, a 14-month high – as the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz, one of the most important arteries for global trade, intensified concerns over oil supplies. While oil later fell back slightly from its initial highs, Brent remained up by nearly 6% at $77 a barrel on Monday. Stock markets fell across Europe, with London’s FTSE 100 down 1.2% at 10,780 points. IAG, the parent company of British Airways, and easyJet were among the worst performers, as thousands of flights were cancelled, down 6% and 4% respectively. However, the rise in the crude price pushed up shares in the oil companies BP and Shell, by about 3%. Shares in the weapons manufacturer BAE Systems jumped by 5% as investors piled into defence stocks. Other European stock markets fell on Monday, with the German Dax index down by 2.4%, the French CAC 40 down 2.2%, the Italian FTSE MIB down 2% and the Spanish Ibex down 2.6%. Wall Street also opened lower. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 fell by nearly 2.4% as traders in Asia responded to the weekend’s developments. It later pulled back, to trade down 1.4%. In Sydney, the ASX 200 opened down sharply, before recovering, to finish the day flat. China’s Shenzhen Composite fell 0.7%. Gold, often deemed a safe-haven asset by investors during times of crisis, rose 2.5% to $5,408 an ounce. Military strikes by the US and Israel on Iran showed no sign of lessening, with Donald Trump suggesting the conflict could last for four more weeks and saying that attacks would continue until America’s objectives were met. As prices rallied, all eyes were on the strait of Hormuz – with about a fifth of oil supplies and seaborne gas tankers passing through it. Within hours of Saturday’s US-Israeli strikes, Tehran had reportedly warned tankers in the strait that no ship would be allowed to pass through. Two ships have been attacked in the strait, one off Oman and the other off the UAE, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the British maritime security agency. While Iran has yet to officially confirm that the vital waterway has been blocked, marine tracking sites showed tankers piling up on either side of the strait wary of attack or maybe unable to get insurance for the voyage. The International Maritime Organization urged ships to avoid the strait of Hormuz. Arsenio Dominguez, its secretary general, expressed deep concern over reports that several seafarers had been wounded in attacks. “I urge all shipping companies to exercise maximum caution,” Dominguez said. “Where possible, vessels should avoid transiting the affected region until conditions improve.” Maersk, the shipping multinational, announced on Sunday it was halting passage through the strait of Hormuz and the Suez canal, another vital artery of the world economy, citing safety reasons. Some analysts suggested oil prices could exceed $100 a barrel unless flows through the strait of Hormuz were quickly restored. The Opec+ cartel of producing nations agreed on Sunday a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels a day for April, but a lot of that product still has to get out of the Middle East by tanker. Iran is one of the cartel’s largest producers, pumping 4.5% of global supplies, so any disruption to its own shipments is likely to have an impact on the wider market. “The disruption creates a dual supply shock: not only are current exports through the strait halted, but Opec+ additional volumes and ultimately most of Opec’s spare capacity – typically a key lever for balancing the global oil market – are inaccessible while the waterway remains closed,” analysts at the energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in a note. In the UK, according to the RAC, forecourt prices were already rising in recent weeks but could climb further because of the conflict. The RAC’s Simon Williams said: “Regardless of the current situation, petrol rose by a penny a litre in February and is likely to go up by another penny in the next week or so to an average of 134p a litre. “If oil were to climb to and stay at the $80 a barrel mark, then drivers could expect to pay an average of 136p for petrol. At $90, we’d be looking at over 140p a litre and $100 would take us nearer to 150p, but it’s all too soon to know.” Reuters and AFP contributed to this report

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Judge adjourns Paris trial of Islam scholar accused of raping three women

The prominent Swiss academic and Islam scholar Tariq Ramadan has not appeared in court for the first day of his trial in Paris on charges of raping three women in France between 2009 and 2016. The head judge in the case adjourned proceedings until Wednesday and ordered a medical report on Ramadan’s health, after his lawyers said he was in hospital in Geneva because of his multiple sclerosis. Ramadan, who advised previous British governments on Islam and society, denies all the charges in a case that has been seen as one of the biggest repercussions of the #MeToo movement in France. Ramadan, 63, was a professor of contemporary Islamic studies at the University of Oxford before taking a leave of absence in 2017 when rape allegations were first made against him. He took early retirement from Oxford in June 2021. Ramadan is accused of the rape of three women. If convicted, he faces up to 20 years in prison. Henda Ayari, 41, a former Salafist Muslim who is now a feminist campaigner, went to the police in 2017 to accuse Ramadan of rape, sexual violence, harassment and intimidation. She said he had raped her in a hotel room in the east of Paris in the spring of 2012 during a conference where he was speaking. Another woman, known by the pseudonym Christelle, told investigators Ramadan had raped her in a Lyon hotel room in October 2009 during another conference and subjected her to a violent attack. A third woman said Ramadan had raped her in 2016. At the start of the investigation in 2017, Ramadan, who is married with four children, denied any form of sexual encounter with the first two women. In 2018, he changed his account, telling investigating judges that he did have sexual relations with Ayari and Christelle, but that they had sought the encounters and fully consented to the “dominant-submissive” relationship. The third woman’s complaint was added to the investigation later. Sarah Mauger-Poliak, the lawyer for Henda Ayari, told Agence France-Presse (AFP) that the trial was “not a conspiracy or political battle” but simply a case of rape. Lawyers for Christelle had said they would ask for the trial to be held in private, without media or the public present, which is a legal right in France. They said this was to protect her identity and to avoid her being harassed. They said the trial was a “crucial moment” after a long investigation. Before the hearing, Ramadan’s lawyers expressed concern over him having a fair trial, telling AFP that because of his multiple sclerosis he was not fit to appear in court without his health being put in danger. In 2024, a Swiss appeals court found Ramadan guilty of raping a woman in a Geneva hotel in 2008 and sentenced him to three years in prison, two of them suspended. Switzerland’s highest court upheld the conviction in a ruling last year. Ramadan’s Swiss legal team announced they would take the case to the European court of human rights.