Tuesday briefing: How to understand Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland’s joint call for change
Good morning. Back in May, the shape of British politics shifted dramatically. I’ll forgive you if you were too preoccupied refreshing Andrew Sparrow’s live blog for the latest speculation about Keir Starmer to notice, but since 7 May, centre-left nationalist parties that ultimately aspire to leave the UK have been in government for the first time simultaneously in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. This week sees the initial codification of that shift. In Cardiff yesterday, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, Scottish National party leader John Swinney and Sinn Féin vice-president Michelle O’Neill (who shares power with the Democratic Unionist party) affirmed their countries’ right to seek independence from the UK. Along with the leader of the opposition in Ireland, Mary Lou McDonald, they signed a memorandum of understanding that called on Westminster “to prepare, plan and facilitate constitutional change in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland”. And they posed for a fair number of group photos too. With each of the sister parties having a different timeline towards a referendum and its own domestic pressures, it’s tempting to dismiss this as spectacle over substance. However, these first ministers are not shouting into a vacuum. They are part of a cross-national conversation in which devolution is the defining project of the UK’s still newish prime minister. For today’s First Edition, I spoke to our Wales correspondent, Bethan McKernan, in Cardiff about why this agreement is more than a photocall, and checked in with colleagues in Scotland and Ireland for the view from there too. But first, the headlines. Five big stories Reform UK | Andy Burnham’s government could thwart Reform’s unprecedented £72m donations with retrospective restrictions on political donors that will include tough new residency requirements, ministers have announced. AI | Donald Trump has dismissed calls to increase controls on AI as a “sick conspiracy”, as stocks linked to the technology slumped after appeals from Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX leaders on the weekend for the industry to slow down. Nato | Nato fighter jets shot down a drone over Lithuania after an alert was issued in the capital and surrounding region, while Poland scrambled fighter jets less than a day after retrieving a suspected Russian drone adrift in its waters. Middle East | Yemen’s Houthi rebels have seized two strategic islands in the Red Sea, reinforcing the Iran-backed group’s ability to control a key shipping route, as concerns mount that the world is facing a new oil supply crisis. Lucy Letby | Two leading experts have quit Lucy Letby’s defence team over concerns about the “scientific credibility” of some of its evidence. In depth: Can devolution hold the UK together?
Listening to the leaders in Cardiff discuss the “growing recognition that Westminster is not working” and that “power genuinely needs to be brought closer to people and communities”, you might have thought Andy Burnham was in the room. The memorandum signed by all four stated that no Westminster government has the right to “block democracy” by refusing a referendum should the public demand it. At the morning press conference Swinney and O’Neill called for immediate referendums in Scotland and Northern Ireland; ap Iorwerth declined to give a timetable. Later that afternoon, the Scottish and Welsh first ministers signed the Cardiff Agreement, setting out shared priorities like child poverty and economic growth, and which Swinney described as “an important moment in the history of devolution”. Events in Cardiff were gifted extra salience by a series of unscripted interventions over the past week. On a visit to Ireland last weekend, Donald Trump told reporters that he would “love” to see a united Ireland and it “may as well happen now”, prompting swift rebuttal from unionists on the Stormont executive and the UK government, as well as a solid gold response from SDLP leader Claire Hanna, who said: “It turns out that he isn’t as orange as he looks”. Only weeks prior, Andy Burnham incensed Irish nationalists by declaring a reunification referendum was “off the table” – forgetting that it’s not his table, because the Good Friday agreement includes a provision for a border poll should it appear that the majority of Northern Irish voters want to leave the UK. In a constitutional one-two, Burnham said last week at PMQs that a second referendum on Scottish independence could be held if a “clear consensus” emerged in favour - but swiftly self-corrected, telling an eager Swinney that such a vote was “off-limits” while he focuses on growing the economy and tackling the cost of living. Nonetheless, says Bethan McKernan, “there is this sense that since Plaid Cymru won the Senedd elections in Wales in May, this is a new chapter in the Celtic struggle for independence – or breaking up the UK, depending on which way you look at it.” *** What this all means for Wales It was an acknowledgment of this momentum, then, that the meeting was held in Cardiff, where Plaid Cymru recently ended a century of Labour control of the Senedd. Latest polling puts support for Wales to leave the UK at 32%, but growing in strength, and ap Iorwerth has been explicit that he won’t push for a referendum this term. Nevertheless, says Bethan, Plaid Cymru are “very ambitious … part of their agenda is to put Wales on the world map and mark Wales out as a nation that can stand on its own two feet.” Now in power, the party is focusing on domestic issues, and also bracing for disruption with Reform winning more than a third of seats in the Senedd. It’s a similar scenario at Holyrood, where Reform is joint second largest party alongside Scottish Labour. Both ap Iorwerth and Swinney have been outspoken in their opposition to right wing populism and benefited at the ballot box. There are already clear signs that Plaid Cymru has been learning from the SNP: one of their early priorities has been the Cynnal, a £10 a week child poverty payment, which is closely modelled on the successful Scottish Child Payment. *** … and Scotland The SNP was returned to Holyrood in May for an unprecedented fifth term, following a lacklustre campaign that mirrored voter disengagement and an unusually high level of undecideds. As its programme for government earlier this month failed to ignite public enthusiasm, this agreement is an opportunity for the Nationalists to “move the conversation back to their overarching aim - and have another confrontation with London,” Patrick Greenfield tells me. (He’s now reporting from Edinburgh, after a memorable stint on this very newsletter). Patrick reminds me that, while support for independence continues to hover around the 50% mark, enthusiasm among younger cohorts is higher: there’s a sense of Swinney future-proofing support for the party as Yes voters drift away from the SNP. And there’s the convenient diversion of attention from domestic travails, Patrick adds: the lingering scandal after former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell was jailed for embezzling party funds, demands for action as Scotland slumped in international education rankings last week, or looming public sector cuts as his government anticipates a near-£5bn gap in its finances by the end of the decade. Ahead of the Holyrood elections, I can recall Swinney positively beaming at the “seismic” potential of three pro-independence administrations: now it has come to pass, his focus is thought to be on seeking an agreed mechanism for triggering a vote, although that wasn’t discussed yesterday. But there is longstanding disagreement within the SNP about whether its better to build support for independence by doing the day job well rather than get lost in the weeds of referendum process. *** … and Northern Ireland Sinn Féin can talk up the significance of the memorandum but its focus is very much on next year’s Stormont assembly elections, Rory Carroll tells me from Dublin. Like the SNP, Sinn Féin’s popularity has slipped in recent years as public services crumble and it fail to deliver on key infrastructure pledges – but it is likely to win out against a fragmented unionist opposition. With support for Irish unity at 36% in Northern Ireland, Brexit hasn’t moved the dial decisively in favour, Rory says, while the Good Friday agreement is “famously murky and vague” on a precise mechanism that would trigger a poll. Does a “majority in favour” refer to opinion polls, elections or some other measure? Stormont has also become “so dysfunctional” that the narrative is growing stronger that Northern Ireland simply doesn’t work, Rory says. “That surely has to be bad news for unionism. So longer term, all bets are off because the status quo cannot continue indefinitely.” *** A resolution on devolution With devolution his guiding principle, Andy Burnham finds himself in a philosophical quandary. He could ape the more muscular unionism of the Starmer era, with senior Labour figures in Scotland and Wales punting devolution to local authorities as a means to sidestep the parliaments now seen as “captured” by nationalists. Or he could follow a more incremental approach, relinquishing further powers within the current constitutional framework. Wales is pressing for the devolution of justice; SNP proposals for a Scottish work visa to combat migrant worker shortages were rejected by Burnham’s government last month. Burnham has said he understands there’s a difference between devolution at regional and national level, but he has yet to set out precisely what he means by that. “Burnham didn’t impress because he didn’t seem to get what it already looked like to people in Scotland and Wales,” says Bethan. “There’s a whole generation that has grown up with institutions like Holyrood and the Senedd”. The trouble is that, unlike No 10 in the North, a whole architecture of devolution already exists in the nations, that is essentially competing with Westminster over who gets to control what. After all, an independence referendum could be described as peak devolution. While Burnham still has to get to grips with this internal contradiction, the nationalist leaders have their eye on the arc of history. “I do think that maybe 20 years from now, we all might look back on this meeting in Cardiff and say that was an early step on a very clear path,” says Bethan. What else we’ve been enjoying
For The Hotspot, our newsletter on climate and sport, John Duerden has a look at how irrepressible summer heat has South Korea considering moving their football season from summer to the winter. It’s a troubling sign of things to come. Charlie Lindlar, newsletters team Reporter Morgan Ofori has produced a terrific video explaining how Britain’s kings and queens powered the slave trade for the Guardian’s recent Enslaving Nation investigation. It’s worth watching. Hettie Phone signal is coming to the London Underground, and Lucy Pasha-Robinson wants no part of it, thanks very much. “What good comes from permanent online connectedness,” she asks. Charlie I enjoyed the book publisher Sean DeLone’s recent Substack essay on why the nonfiction market is tanking. He thinks it reflects a wider crisis not just for the men who (mostly) read these books, but for the authority of books as cultural objects. Hettie When Trump started building his ballroom, he said it would be “more beautiful” than Versailles. The Guardian’s architecture critic Oliver Wainwright finds that his chandelier-bedecked warehouse is more “The Blingpire Strikes Back”. Hettie Sport
Football | VAR officials who allowed Erling Haaland’s winning goal in the Manchester derby on Sunday have been stood down from their responsibilities because of an “error of judgment”. Cricket | England’s new Test head coach Stephen Fleming will return to New Zealand to work as a commentator on the Black Caps’ Test and white ball series against India next month despite having formally started work. Formula One | A new track for the Spanish Grand Prix is set to change after driver condemnation of the Madring. The front pages
“Ministers seek law change to make £72m donations to Reform illegal”, is the Guardian’s front page today, while the Times has “‘Enhanced’ checks may block £72m to Reform”. The Telegraph leads with “Villages join revolt over migrant camps”, on the same story the Express writes “‘This is for our children’”. Metro has “Post Office fraud blitz”, the i Paper says “ADHD not being overdiagnosed in the UK, major report set to find”, and the FT splashes “Ten-year Treasury yield tops 5% as inflation fears batter bond markets”. The Mail has “Harry and Meghan pull children out of their new school after just two days” and lastly, the Sun on Oasis’ next tour says “Definitely mayhem”. Today in Focus: The Latest
Sydney Sweeney naked sports ad controversy: what’s she playing at? The actor Sydney Sweeney is under fire for ‘sexualising women’s sports’ in an ad campaign for US sports prediction company Novig, which features a series of images of her in various states of undress as she pretends to play different sports. The ad has been widely criticised by a number of sportswomen, including Olympic swimmer Ariarne Titmus who described it as ‘infuriating’ and a ‘kick in the teeth’ to women who have ‘spent decades perfecting their craft’. Sweeney has responded by saying the ad was about ‘embracing a fun idea’. Lucy Hough speaks to Guardian feature writer Elle Hunt. Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Do birds actually enjoy flying? Or is it just a thankless journey they take from A to B, the ornithological equivalent of your morning commute? Jorg Massen, a behavioural biologist at Utrecht university, has an answer. In his study of 17 captive cockatoos kept in a bird park in the Netherlands, he found that the birds chose to fly on virtually every occasion. When they flew on consecutive days, they were more likely to display behaviours related to positive emotions, and become more “optimistic”. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply
