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Ukraine war briefing: Russia launches ‘massive attack’ on energy sites, triggering widespread blackouts

A “massive attack” by Russian forces on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on Saturday caused power outages across the country, the state grid operator said. Energy minister Denys Shmygal said Kyiv had requested emergency assistance from Poland after Russia hit the Burshtynska and Dobrotvirska power plants in western Ukraine overnight. “Russian criminals carried out another massive attack on Ukraine’s energy facilities. The attack continues,” Shmyhal said on Telegram. “Energy workers are ready to start repair works as soon as the security situation allows.” Due to the damage, emergency outages had been applied in most Ukrainian regions, grid operator Ukrenergo said. Two airports in Poland were suspended from operations as a precaution due to the Russian strikes on nearby Ukraine territory, Polish authorities said on Saturday. “In connection with the need to ensure the possibility of the free operation of military aviation, the airports in Rzeszow and Lublin have temporarily suspended flight operations,” the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency posted on X. Both of the south-eastern cities are close to the Ukrainian border, with Rzeszow being Nato’s main hub for arms supplies to Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier called for faster action in boosting Ukrainian air defences and repairing damage to electricity grids and heating systems after huge Russian air attacks in freezing temperatures. The Ukrainian president said personnel changes would be made in areas where air defences had less than satisfactory results. Kyiv has been hit particularly hard and Zelenskyy said more than 1,110 apartment blocks remained without heat in the aftermath of an assault on the Ukrainian capital last Tuesday. Night-time temperatures have eased somewhat but were still due to hit -8C (18F). “The small-scale air defence component, specifically countering attacks drones, must work more efficiently and prevent the problems that exist,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address on Friday. Donald Trump has said “very good talks” are ongoing over Russia’s war in Ukraine and that there could be movement as a result. “Very, very good talks today, having to do with Russia-Ukraine,” the US president told reporters on Friday. “Something could be happening.” The Kremlin said earlier that a third round of peace talks should take place “soon”, although there was no fixed date yet. The latest round of talks this week resulted in the two agreeing to a major prisoner swap but failed to yield a breakthrough on the thorny issue of territory. A top Russian military official who plays a major role in the country’s intelligence services has been shot in Moscow and hospitalised, Pjotr Sauer reports state media as saying. Lt Gen Vladimir Alekseyev, 64, was shot several times on the stairwell of his apartment on Friday by an unknown gunman in the city’s north-west and was in critical condition, according to reports. Oleg Tsaryov, a pro-Kremlin Ukrainian figure close to Alekseyev, said the general had undergone surgery and remained in a coma. No party has claimed responsibility for shooting Alekseyev but Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov accused Ukraine of being behind it, while Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said Ukraine had nothing to do with the shooting. The European Commission has proposed a sweeping ban on any services that support Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports, going far beyond previous piecemeal EU sanctions in its effort to stunt Moscow’s key source of income for its war on Ukraine. Russia exports over a third of its oil in western tankers – mostly from Greece, Cyprus and Malta – with the help of western shipping services. The ban would end that practice, which mostly supplies India and China, and render obsolete a price cap on purchases of Russian crude oil that the Group of Seven western powers have tried to enforce with mixed success. EC president Ursula von der Leyen said on Friday the ban would be “in coordination with like-minded partners” and that Russian LNG tankers and icebreakers would encounter “sweeping bans” on maintenance and other services.

UK threatens to seize Russia-linked shadow fleet tanker in escalatory move

The UK is threatening to seize a Russia-linked shadow fleet tanker in an escalatory move that could lead to the opening up of a new front against Moscow at a time when the country’s oil revenues are tumbling. British defence sources confirmed that military options to capture a rogue ship had been identified in discussions involving Nato allies – though a month has gone by since the US-led seizure of a Russian tanker in the Atlantic. In January, 23 shadow fleet ships using false or fraudulent flags were spotted in the Channel or Baltic Sea, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Many are linked to the export of Russian oil, largely by water to China, India and Turkey. A joint statement signed by the UK, Germany, France and other Nato countries bordering the Baltic and North seas late last month said all vessels sailing through either region should “strictly comply with applicable international law”. But despite setting conditions for a seizure, nothing has followed. “The Royal Navy could challenge any number of ships under maritime law because they are in fact stateless,” said Richard Meade, the editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, a specialist shipping title. “But they haven’t, because there are escalatory risks.” Last month the Royal Marines held a briefing for British MPs and peers, covering the threat from Russia and the situation in the Arctic and the high north. One of those present said the Marines were “champing at the bit” to be given the order to seize a ship. A month ago, the US chased the Marinera tanker from the Caribbean to the north Atlantic, seizing it between Scotland and Iceland with British help. Though it was falsely flagged when it was first approached, it had been re-registered as Russian while it was being pursued in a failed attempt to evade capture. Russian complaints in the aftermath were muted, but a UK or European-led operation would be potentially more fraught “because Moscow would probably respond more robustly”, Meade said. The risks could be reduced if a seizure took place away from the Baltic or Arctic waters, he added. On 22 January, before the signing of the joint statement, France detained the Grinch, an oil tanker off the coast of Spain. It had departed from Murmansk in Russia, under the flag of Comoros, a country in east Africa – but a week later the French president, Emmanuel Macron, told his Ukrainian counterpart it would have to be released because of French law. In late January, John Healey, the UK defence secretary, said Britain would host a meeting of Baltic and Nordic countries to discuss “military options that we might use”. Any oil seized, he suggested, could be sold “and put into Ukraine in order to fight Putin’s invasion”. Russia produces about 10m barrels of oil a day, according to Craig Kennedy, an associate at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. Though some of its 7m daily exports are exported by pipeline, approximately 5-6m a day travel by sea, of which 60% goes to China and India. After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the west gradually began implementing economic sanctions to target the Kremlin’s ability to wage war. A price cap was set on Russian seaborne crude exports, which led Moscow to respond by spending an estimated $15bn on buying 400 ageing tankers, often more than 20 years old, to create its own “shadow fleet”. “It’s a collection of old, poorly maintained ships that are opaquely owned, often underinsured and flying flags from jurisdictions either with weak controls or enforcement efforts, increasingly taking up false flags,” said Gonzalo Saiz Erausquin, from the Royal United Services Institute, a UK thinktank. The idea was taken from Iran and Venezuela, already subject to sanctions, but the Russian shadow fleet is, Kennedy says, essentially separate. The evasion of regulations that makes the shadow fleet idea attractive to Moscow has also made it vulnerable. A ship’s flag is, in effect, its own jurisdiction – but if a ship is using a false or even multiple flags, it is effectively stateless and can therefore in theory be seized, though in European countries the exact legal interpretation differs. It is uncertain how far a capture of one or two shadow fleet vessels would hurt Moscow’s economy. Since the end of November, seven shadow fleet tankers have been struck by drones, with Ukraine claiming responsibility for four, including the Qendil, attacked in the Mediterranean. Data on oil export volumes assembled by Kennedy does not suggest there has been a significant drop-off in response, with the Russian export figure holding at more than 5m barrels of oil a day, though volumes are down from a 6m-a-day autumn peak. There are also signs that Moscow is reacting to western threats by re-registering shadow fleet tankers under the Russian flag to prevent seizure. The Marinera was one of 10 shadow fleet vessels in the Caribbean that had reflagged to Russia in December and January, part of a failed effort to break the US oil blockade of Venezuela. There remain more than 200 Russia-linked shadow fleet vessels still in operation, though Russia’s mainstream, own-flagged fleet is expanding. It now accounts for 51% of volumes, with the price cap to which they are subject considered easy to flout. British sabre-rattling comes at a time when Russia’s economy appears more vulnerable than before, with its war boom faded and economic growth faltering. Falling global oil prices, helped partly by greater supply from Venezuela, are hurting the Russian treasury. Yuliia Pavytska, a sanctions specialist at Kyiv School of Economics Institute, said oil and gas revenues for the Kremlin “fell by 24% in 2025” to 8.5tn rubles. They accounted for 22% of state income in 2025 – down from 41% in 2022. The economist said the EU was considering a total ban on providing maritime services such as insurance to Russian ships which, she argued, would be “very painful” for Moscow, particularly if it was accompanied by military action.

Storm-battered Portugal heads to polls as rivals unite to keep out far right

Portuguese voters will return to the polls on Sunday for the final round of a presidential election that has been marked by a push to keep the far-right candidate at bay and overshadowed by deadly storms that have lashed the country in recent days. The moderate leftwing candidate António José Seguro won the first round of the election, which was held on 18 January, taking 31.1% of the vote. André Ventura, the leader of the far-right party Chega – now the second-largest party in parliament – took 23.5% of the vote, while João Cotrim de Figueiredo, of the conservative pro-business Liberal Initiative party, came third among the 11 candidates, winning about 16% of the vote. Luis Marques Mendes, the candidate for Portugal’s ruling Social Democratic party (PSD), came fifth with 11.3% of the vote. Before the campaign was all but officially interrupted by two deadly and destructive storms, some conservative figures in the country had staged a rare display of apparent unity by declaring their support for Seguro in an attempt to head off the possibility of a far-right presidency. Others, including Portugal’s centre-right prime minister, Luís Montenegro, have refused to throw their weight behind the socialist. Opinion polls suggest that voters are also rallying around Seguro. According to a survey by Católica University pollsters released late on Tuesday, the socialist candidate is on 67% to Ventura’s 33%. Should the polls prove accurate, Seguro will secure the highest result for a first-term presidential contestant in the five decades since Portugal overturned its authoritarian regime. But if Ventura clinches more than 32% of the vote, Chega will have achieved a larger share of the vote than the governing PSD did in the last general election. Analysts say that in itself could herald another political watershed. “The ongoing problem is André Ventura’s percentage and his capacity to mobilise the rightwing electorate,” said António Costa Pinto, a political scientist at Lisbon University’s Institute of Social Sciences. “What’s going to be important to watch on Sunday night is whether Chega’s leader manages to exceed Montenegro’s share of the vote. If so – and polls suggest as much – Ventura will reinforce his project to cannibalise the rightwing space in Portugal.” Among the first to declare their support for Seguro were two centre-right politicians – the former president and prime minister Aníbal Cavaco Silva, and the former deputy prime minister Paulo Portas. Politicians, former ministers, public intellectuals, and other figures identifying themselves as “non-socialists” are among more than 6,600 signatories of an open letter endorsing Seguro. Other conservative figures to have expressed their support for Seguro have done so reluctantly. Carlos Moedas, the centre-right mayor of Lisbon, told the Portuguese publication Expresso he would cast his vote for Seguro because the socialist candidate “was capable of being non-divisive”. But he added that his support was “unenthusiastic”. Mariana Leitão, the leader of the Liberal Initiative party, also said Seguro would get her vote albeit “unenthusiastically”. Montenegro, who leads the PSD, said he would not endorse any of the candidates for the runoff, declaring his party to be out of the campaign. Cotrim de Figueiredo, whose first-round performance exceeded expectations, has also refrained from explicitly backing the centre-left candidate, but has said he will not be voting for Ventura, abstaining, or casting a blank ballot. Montenegro’s refusal to pick a side has been criticised by several political figures and commentators in Portugal. “The prime minister’s position is seen as cowardly by some social-democratic sectors in the face of the threat Ventura poses to the foundations of the regime,” said Miguel Carvalho, a journalist and author of the book Por Dentro do Chega (Inside Chega) He said the prime minister’s neutrality, which is associated with his government’s legislative concessions to Chega, would come back to haunt him: “Montenegro’s decision will remain in the dark memory of the PSD, and opens the door for Ventura’s consolidation as the leader of the right in Portugal.” But, as Carvalho also pointed out, Montenegro and Cotrim de Figueiredo may have positioned themselves as they have because they are mindful that the “apparent unity” of the conservatives around Seguro could actually benefit Ventura. “It reinforces Ventura’s claim that he’s the anti-establishment candidate,” he said. For all the media attention that the conservatives’ support for Seguro has drawn, experts believe it may not prove to be hugely consequential. “The truth is that most of those conservative names are no longer that important,” said Costa Pinto. “The current elite of the Social Democratic and the Liberal Initiative parties know better, and they know reality has changed. Chega virtually decapitated those historically notable figures.” The campaign for the second round of the election was curtailed by two major storms that prompted the declaration of a state of calamity that has been extended to 15 February. Ventura called for the vote to be delayed by a week, calling it “a matter of equality among all Portuguese”. The national electoral authority said the vote would go ahead as scheduled: “A state of calamity, weather alerts or overall unfavourable situations are not in themselves a sufficient reason to postpone voting in a town or region.” Electoral law does, however, allow individual municipalities to postpone voting. Montenegro said that while the storms had caused a “devastating crisis”, barriers to to voting could be overcome.

BBC Persian journalists say Iran monitoring them and targeting their families

Exiled Iranian journalists working for the BBC have been warned their movements are being closely monitored by the state, as they said their families in Iran were being interrogated and persecuted for their reporting. Journalists said family members had been threatened with arrest and the seizure of their assets unless their loved ones stopped reporting on Iranian unrest. The Guardian has been told of instances in which the parents of journalists had been warned that Iran’s security forces knew where and when they worked, as well as the position of their desk in the newsroom. Staff working for BBC Persian, which reaches 30 million people a week, said the pressure had continued following the unrest that led to tens of thousands of deaths. There are calls for an independent inquiry into the number of people killed. Journalists have been told they remain targets for the Iranian security services, despite being on UK soil. Some are taking extra security measures after receiving credible death and kidnapping threats. Others have already been forced to quit because of the financial pressures placed on their relatives. One journalist, who spoke anonymously out of fear that being named would place “more pressure on my family”, said their father had been detained and warned by security forces that they were monitoring overseas journalists. “They knew everything about me somehow,” the journalist said. “They said they know where I live. They even gave my father the address, the telephone number, where I’m sitting exactly in the newsroom. “They knew which programme exactly that I was with and they said ‘we are not really happy with this programme’.” They said their family had been warned that London was not safe. There have been credible threats to Iranian journalists in the UK, including the stabbing of a reporter outside his London home. Last year, three Iranians appeared in court charged with targeting UK-based journalists. They deny the charges. The situation became even more critical following Iran’s internet shutdown, which began on 8 January and followed nearly two weeks of anti-government protests. State authorities appear to have relaxed internet restrictions more recently, but not removed them, after the violent suppression of protests by the security forces. Behrang Tajdin, BBC Persian TV’s economics correspondent, said his mother was detained and asked about his work. He said he did not hear from her for three weeks during the internet blackout imposed by the government. “Some of the threats look very serious and are made by people who may not be based in Iran, so they may have the means to affect what they are saying,” he said. “Since 2022, it seems like the Iranian regime is hiring third-party criminals to try to harm Iranian journalists and activists based on UK soil. “I and many other BBC journalists may work in the same building, but we don’t lead the same sort of life in terms of being confident that we are completely safe. We have to take the situation seriously and that hasn’t abated. We need to be very, very careful.” Tajdin said family members of his colleagues had been threatened with having business licences removed or forced into early retirement. Another BBC journalist, who wished to remain anonymous, said they had to be careful when calling family members. “After these protests, they didn’t leave us,” the journalist said. “It’s not safe at all after this protest to talk very clearly. “Many of my colleagues, their families already had their assets frozen. Some have been obliged to leave the BBC. I know at least two of them left because their families have been under really big [financial] pressure and they needed the money.” The journalist said the tactic was designed to pressure them out of journalism and it left them feeling guilty. “They know how to push mental pressure,” they said. “[My family] have no choice because it’s my choice to be a journalist and be out of Iran – the pressure is on them. “This is something that I can’t really forgive myself for. Even sometimes when I’m happy, and I want to go [out] with friends to have a normal life, you feel a little bit of shame inside because you feel, OK, the family are under pressure, anything can happen to them, but I’m freely living here.” Tajdin said: “I cannot count the number of times that a colleague has come to me with teary eyes, saying: ‘My dad passed away, my mom passed away, and I couldn’t be there to say goodbye. I couldn’t be at their funeral’. Or worse than that – they’ve got a terrible terminal illness and they can’t be with them. “I can’t stress this enough – every single one of us knows that our family members in Iran are being punished on our behalf.”

‘Can Mette-Marit be queen after this?’: Rape trial and Epstein files bring double crisis for Norway’s royals

There will be little to celebrate when Norway’s King Harald, Europe’s oldest reigning monarch, turns 89 later this month. Two multigenerational crises have rocked the institution, causing its popularity to dip in polls of Norwegians and bringing a public glare that far exceeds that of previous scandals. The king’s step-grandson, Marius Borg Høiby, who joined the royal family when his mother Mette-Marit married in 2001, is standing trial in Oslo charged with 38 counts, including the rape of four women. Crown Princess Mette-Marit, meanwhile, has come under intense scrutiny over damaging revelations in the Epstein files about her years-long relationship with the late sex offender. On Tuesday, the first day of his trial that has transfixed Norway, Høiby pleaded not guilty to the most serious charges of rape and domestic violence but acknowledged partial guilt – a plea allowed under Norwegian law – for aggravated assault and reckless behaviour. He also admitted lesser charges, including driving too fast. The crown princess had planned to leave the country for at least some of the trial, but changed her mind after the latest tranche of the Epstein files, released last Friday by the US justice department, appeared to include nearly 1,000 mentions of her. In one exchange from 2012, she asked Epstein in an email if it was “inappropriate for a mother to suggest two naked women carrying a surfboard for my 15 yr old sons wallpaper?” The Epstein revelations prompted fierce criticism of Mette-Marit, including from the prime minister, Jonas Gahr Stør, who agreed with her own comments that she had shown “poor judgement” and called on her to provide more information. On Friday, Mette-Marit released a statement via the royal household expressing her “deepest regret for my friendship with Jeffrey Epstein” and apologising for “the situation that I have put the royal family in, especially the king and queen.” Her husband, Crown Prince Haakon, speaking to reporters, said there was “a lot happening at once” for his family. “We support Marius in the situation he is in, we look after the other children, they must also be looked after, and I have to look after and take care of the crown princess,” he said. “Fortunately, she takes care of me, too.” Although the king and his wife, Queen Sonja, remain popular among many Norwegians, the standing of the wider royal family has taken a severe hit. A poll this week by the newspaper Aftenposten found that support for Norway having a monarchy has dropped from 72% in 2024 to 54% today. A total of three polls have found that close to half of the population believes Mette-Marit can no longer become queen when Haakon ascends to the throne. As recently as December there was a public outpouring of support for the crown princess, who has pulmonary fibrosis, when she revealed that she will probably have to have a lung transplant. Now, some of the organisations of which she is royal patron have said they are considering ending their association with her. Kjetil B Alstadheim, Aftenposten’s political editor, who wrote an article this week asking the question: “Can Mette-Marit become queen after this?”, said the Epstein revelations posed the biggest threat because unlike Høiby – who is not an official member of the family – Mette-Marit has a central role in the institution and its future. “She is supposed to be queen one day, so that’s more difficult,” he said. “The others are side stories. Difficult stories but side stories. So it hits the family in a more direct way.” Støre’s decision to comment on Mette-Marit’s actions was unprecedented, he said. “I have not found any example from earlier where a prime minister has criticised a member of the royal family in that way.”. He also added that Støre’s instruction to her to provide the public with more answers was highly unusual. “It’s very unique that a prime minister tells a member of the royal family what to do.” The royals are not immune to scandal: Mette-Marit’s entry into the family as a single mother before her marriage to Prince Haakon in 2001 caused a stir, and the business activities of Princess Märtha Louise – the crown prince’s sister – drew unwelcome attention after her marriage to a self-described shaman in 2024. But the developments of recent weeks are of a different order of magnitude. How the royal family handles the Epstein files issue will be crucial to “how they are viewed in the weeks and months and years to come”, said Alstadheim. Despite the apparent rise in republican sentiment and the unusual prime ministerial intervention, the dial hasn’t moved on the status of the monarchy among Norway’s wider political class. In a strange coincidence, a vote that takes places every four years in parliament on making Norway a republic was held on Tuesday. Just 26 MPs voted in favour of getting rid of the monarchy, against 141 who voted to keep it. Support was in fact lower than the last time a vote took place, in June 2022, when 35 voted in favour of a republic. The measure requires a two-thirds majority to pass. Alstadheim attributed the result to a desire on the part of the MPs to “look at this on a longer horizon than the current news cycle”. The Norwegian republican association, Norge Som Republikk, argued that the vote should have been postponed until more information was known about the mother and son’s behaviour. “Now we have to wait at least another four years,” said their leader, Craig Aaen-Stockdale. Vilde Helljesen, a journalist for the state broadcaster NRK, said many Norwegians were waiting for answers from Mette-Marit on the full extent of her relationship with Epstein. “She has said that she regrets her contact with Epstein and that she should have better researched his past and apologised for that,” Helljesen said. “However, the recent files have left new questions unanswered.” In practice, she added, the only person who could give and remove royal titles was the king: “As long as Mette-Marit is the wife of the heir to the throne, she will one day be queen – or the title that the king at the time decides. That is the formality.”

Russian general Vladimir Alekseyev in critical condition after Moscow shooting

A top Russian military official who plays a major role in the country’s intelligence services has been taken to hospital after being shot in Moscow, state media has reported. Lt Gen Vladimir Alekseyev was shot several times on the stairwell of his apartment on Friday by an unknown gunman in the north-west of the city and is in critical condition, according to reports. Oleg Tsaryov, a pro-Kremlin Ukrainian figure close to Alekseyev said the general had undergone surgery and remained in a coma. No party has claimed responsibility for shooting Alekseyev, but suspicion in Moscow fell on Kyiv. Ukrainian intelligence agencies have targeted dozens of Russian military officers and Russian-installed officials since the start of the war, accusing them of involvement in war crimes. Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, called the shooting a “terrorist attack”, claiming without evidence it was intended to derail talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US to end the war. “This terrorist attack once again confirmed the Zelenskyy regime’s focus on constant provocations, aimed in turn at derailing the negotiation process,” Lavrov said in Moscow. The Ukrainian foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, said Ukraine had nothing to do with the shooting. “We don’t know what happened with that particular general – maybe it was their own internal Russian in-fighting,” the Reuters news agency quoted Sybiha as saying. The Ukrainian-born Alekseyev is a deputy director of Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, a unit in the defence ministry known for organising covert operations abroad, including assassinations, sabotage and espionage. He was one of the top officers providing Vladimir Putin with intelligence for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He has also been widely described as a major figure overseeing the country’s private military companies and was among the senior officials dispatched to negotiate with Yevgeny Prigozhin during the Wagner group’s brief mutiny in the summer of 2023. After Prigozhin’s revolt, Alekseyev was widely believed to have fallen out of favour in Moscow and was reported to have been briefly detained over his links to Wagner, yet he ultimately retained his post.s. Alekseyev is under sanctions from Washington for his alleged involvement in efforts to interfere in the 2020 US presidential election. The UK also placed sanctions on him over the deadly 2018 novichok nerve agent attack in Salisbury. The commander of Ukraine’s Azov regiment, Denys Prokopenko, wrote on X that if Alekseyev survived the attack, he would “never sleep peacefully again”. “No war criminal who has killed and tortured Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, destroyed Ukrainian cities, abducted Ukrainian children, or committed other crimes against the Ukrainian people will ever feel safe,” Prokopenko added. The timing of the shooting was striking, coming a day after Russian and Ukrainian delegations – including Alekseyev’s direct superior, Igor Kostyukov – met in Abu Dhabi, where both sides spoke of apparent progress in the peace talks. Previous peace efforts have broken down over Russia’s maximalist territorial demands on Ukraine, with Moscow repeatedly rejecting Kyiv’s calls for an immediate ceasefire. Ukraine has targeted at least three Russian generals in the Moscow region over the past year, though such operations have typically involved explosives. Little is publicly known about the clandestine networks believed to be behind assassinations and attacks on military infrastructure inside Russia and in Russian-controlled territories. Alekseyev’s shooting will be seen as the latest failure of Russia’s security services to protect senior military personnel deep inside the country. While details of who carried out the attack and how it was organised remain unclear, Russian military bloggers have criticised apparent security lapses, questioning how a gunman was able to enter the apartment building undetected. Andrei Soldatov, an independent expert on Russia’s security services, called the attack “incredible sloppiness”. “One would have expected them to scale up protection for top military brass,” he wrote on social media.

US and Iran say ‘good’ start made in talks over nuclear programme

Indirect talks between Iran and the US on the future of Iran’s nuclear programme ended on Friday with a broad agreement to maintain a diplomatic path, possibly with further talks in the coming days, according to statements from Iran and the Omani hosts. The relieved Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, described the eight hours of meetings as a “good start” conducted in a good atmosphere. He added that the continuance of talks depended on consultations in Washington and Tehran, but said Iran had underlined that any dialogue required refraining from threats. Donald Trump described the talks as “very good” and said that another meeting would be held early next week. But the US president, speaking aboard Air Force One, also warned: “If they don’t make a deal, the consequences are very steep.” The talks were the first to be held between Iran and the US since Washington and Israel launched devastating military strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and political leadership last June. Trump has in recent weeks assembled a large fleet in the region built around the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier group, after telling Iranian protesters in January that “help is on the way” during large-scale anti-government demonstrations. Iran, which has experienced intense internal unrest in which thousands of protesters have been killed in a bloody crackdown, had insisted that the talks be confined to guarantees about the civilian purpose of its nuclear programme, and not extend to human rights, its missiles, or support for proxy groups in the region including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. “Our talks are solely nuclear and we do not discuss any other issues with the Americans,” Araghchi said. The indirect talks in Muscat were mediated by Oman’s foreign minister, Badr al-Busaidi, in separate talks between the two sides. The US team was led by Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and the US president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The US Centcom commander, Adm Brad Cooper, was also present, underlining how Trump has made US military leverage a central part of his diplomatic armoury. Al-Busaidi said in a statement: “These consultations focused on creating suitable conditions for the resumption of diplomatic and technical negotiations emphasising the importance of these talks and parties’ determination to succeed in achieving lasting security and stability.” Trust between Iran and the US has been minimal since the US backed the launch of Israeli military strikes on Iran only days before the two sides were due to meet for a sixth round of talks last June. “After eight turbulent months during which we went through a war, resuming a process of dialogue is not simple,” Araghchi said. “The deep mistrust that has developed on top of previous mistrust is a serious challenge. First we must overcome the prevailing atmosphere of distrust … If this trend continues, I think we can reach a good framework for an agreement”. Washington wanted to expand the talks to cover Iran’s ballistic missiles, support for armed groups in the region and “treatment of their own people” – as the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said on Wednesday. But, after days of speculation, Iranian negotiators were satisfied that only the nuclear dispute would be discussed, at least initially. Iran is seeking assurances that the US is not using the talks as a smokescreen to impose regime change. Before the talks, Tehran said the US had to drop its request for the negotiations to be held in Turkey in the presence of foreign ministers from Qatar, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Iran says its right to enrich uranium on Iranian soil – a right it was granted in the now-defunct 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama – is not negotiable. The best source of compromise is that Iran agrees to suspend plans to enrich uranium for a fixed number of years, and a regional consortium is formed that enriches uranium, taking the region closer to an integrated civil nuclear programme. Iran is also seeking sanctions relief in return for a new inspections regime at its nuclear sites. The value of the rial against the dollar has halved since the Israeli attacks in June, and Iran’s plummeting standard of living, made worse by runaway food inflation close to more than 100%, was the spark for the demonstrations that broke out in late December. The talks were meanwhile being held against the backdrop of repeated warnings by Trump that he will strike Iran militarily from the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier group if no progress is made. The US has been building up its naval presence in the region after the Iranian government crackdown on protests, heightening tensions between Washington and Tehran. Tehran has said it will not hesitate to attack Israel or US military bases in the region if it is attacked. Washington last month held back from attacking Iran partly because Israel and the US military did not feel they were fully prepared to withstand the likely Iranian reprisals.

The pro-democracy People’s party is leading the polls, but Thailand has been here before

A flood of gifts are passed by adoring fans to 38-year-old Thai politician Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut. Supporters, many of them young students, hand over orange garlands, plastic oranges on string, fresh orange fruit, a bunch of bananas and some corn on the cob. The trademark orange colour is one of the few things that has remained constant for his youthful, pro-reform party, which has been dissolved twice by Thailand’s constitutional court, and forced to regroup under new names and new leaders. “If you define yourselves … as being on the side of democracy, give us a chance,” Natthaphong urged a crowd of supporters at a campaign rally for his People’s party in Udon Thani, in north-eastern Thailand this week. “This party loves democracy.” People’s party, fuelled by support among young and urban voters, is leading opinion polls ahead of the election on Sunday. However, it is not expected to win an outright majority, and it may face an uphill struggle to form a coalition with rivals, which have previously blocked its bids for power. It also faces looming legal battles. People’s party will be up against incumbent prime minister Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of Bhumjaithai, a shrewd dealmaker who has the support of royalist military conservatives, as well as Pheu Thai, the party associated with now jailed former leader Thaksin Shinawatra. Although Pheu Thai is expected to see a decline in support, the party remains a powerful political force. Many of the voters attending the People’s party’s rally say they want structural change to Thailand’s political system. “I’ve lived through so many elections in my life, I don’t want to see the same system again. I want equality for the people, and for young people to be able to express their opinions freely,” said supporter Rattanakorn Boonchi, 46. The movement behind the People’s party emerged only eight years ago, but has quickly captured public support by promising reforms to make the country more democratic and break up monopolies that dominate the Thai economy. In the last election, in 2023, the People’s party predecessor, then called Move Forward, shocked its rivals in the military royalist establishment by winning the most votes and seats. However, Move Forward was blocked by military-appointed senators from taking power, and was later dissolved by the constitutional court. Judges said the party’s promise to reform the draconian lese-majesty law, under which criticism of the monarchy can lead to up to 15 years in prison, violated the constitution. ‘Corruption is the first priority’ Legal cases continue to hang over the party’s members, including its leader Natthaphong, who is one of 44 former Move Forward lawmakers being investigated by the National Anti-Corruption Commission for ethics breaches for attempting to change the lese-majesty law. The party has now dropped the policy. Natthaphong tells the Guardian he believes the case is “very low risk” and that he has done nothing wrong, adding “it is the right of the MPs to propose law amendments in the parliament.” Polling suggests Natthaphong, a former software engineer, lacks the same rockstar appeal as Pita Limjaroenrat, the charismatic leader of the party’s predecessor who was banned from office in 2024. In Udon Thani, however, Natthaphong is given a warm welcome by screaming supporters. A fan of computer games who helped run the party’s successful online strategy in the last election, he became the youngest leader of the opposition in 2024. The party’s priority is tackling corruption, Natthaphong says, to help attract investment and tackle Thailand’s stagnating economy. The promise resonates with many supporters. “Corruption is the first priority and if we solve that, the rest will follow,” says first-time-voter Khatawut Sukmarach, 18. Khatawut wants the economy to be more equal, he added, with more opportunities for young people in his home town in Udon Thani. “We need job opportunities that are decentralised from the capital [Bangkok]. I want to work close to my home,” Khatawut says. Phatcharaphon Bunyong, another first-time voter, whose friends screamed giddily when Natthaphong’s campaign car passed by, wants Thailand to move away from patronage politics, where people turn to local politicians for short-term support. “I want every Thai citizen to be able to be financially independent and not just receive money from politicians and be unable to make anything for themselves,” she says. People’s party has been critical of patronage-style politics, saying it breeds corruption, says Dr Napon Jatusripitak, visiting fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. This may win the approval of some voters, but it could also be a hard sell in a climate of slow economic growth when voters are struggling financially. “It’s really uncertain whether voters would prefer a candidate from a party that has performed strong constituency service, a bit more patronage-oriented in terms of solving concrete problems, or whether they would prefer a party that has proposed to engage in a more structural reform of the Thai economy as People’s party has tried to do,” says Napon. On Sunday, voters will elect 400 constituency seats as well as 100 party-list seats. Voters will also be asked if they support drafting a new constitution, a process that People’s party supports as it says it wants to make the charter more democratic. People’s party is likely to gain enough support in urban centres such as Bangkok and Chiang Mai, but needs to also cut through in more rural areas, says Napon. Udon Thani, which is being targeted by the People’s party, is a stronghold for former populist leader Thakin Shinawatra. In a local market, sellers say many in the area are still loyal to his party, Pheu Thai. “I have been voting Pheu Thai since I was 18 and now I’m about 50,” says Kamjan Pohsaeng. She admits she is tired of Thailand’s political upheavals – this is the fourth time the prime minister could change since the 2023 election – but she will go out to vote, she says. People’s party is trying to convince its supporters to do the same. After posing for selfies with a line of supporters, Natthaphong tells the Guardian. “I truly believe that if we have a turnout of more than 80% in this election, we can bring real change to bring back the politics in Thailand to belong to the people.”