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Middle East crisis live: Trump says US will blockade the strait of Hormuz immediately

The US president, Donald Trump, said the US Navy would immediately start blockading the strait of Hormuz and would also interdict every vessel in international waters that had paid a toll to Iran. In a lengthy Truth Social post, he said the US is going to start “BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz”. Trump said that the US Navy is going to start “ destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the straits”, warning that any Iranian who fires at the US or at “peaceful vessels will be blown to hell”. “No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,” he said, adding that the blockade – which will involve so far unspecified other countries – will “begin shortly”. “Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION. They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear,” Trump wrote.

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Peruvians go to polls hoping to break cycle of instability

Peruvians go to the polls on Sunday hoping to break a cycle of instability that has produced nine presidents in a decade as well as surging violent crime, corruption scandals and overwhelming distrust in institutions and politicians. About 27 million people who are eligible to vote must choose between a record 35 presidential candidates as well as contenders for the bicameral congress – all from a ballot sheet measuring nearly half a metre, the longest in the country’s history. The fight against crime tops voter concerns amid record homicide and extortion rates but political corruption comes a close second. Four former presidents are in jail, most of them linked to bribery cases involving the Brazilian construction company Odebrecht. Keiko Fujimori, a three-time presidential candidate and the daughter of the late president Alberto Fujimori, holds a narrow lead in opinion polls. She is closely followed by the comedian Carlos Álvarez and two former mayors of Lima, the ultra-conservative Rafael López Aliaga and the media mogul Ricardo Belmont. None of the candidates is polling above 15%, making a runoff on 7 June almost certain, according to Urpi Torrado, of the polling company Datum Internacional. “This is one of the most unpredictable elections on record,” said Torrado. “There could be surprises this Sunday because we don’t know who will make it through to the second round.” Fujimori, 50, is making her fourth bid for the presidency, having reached the runoff in the last three elections (2021, 2016 and 2011) and losing by extremely narrow margins each time. The rightwinger served as first lady in the autocratic 1990s government of her late father, who was convicted over corruption and human rights abuses and spent 16 years in prison. Ricardo Belmont, who was Lima’s mayor from 1990 to 1995, has risen in most opinion polls, winning the younger vote with his upbeat messaging and the slogan “hugs not bullets”, borrowed from the former Mexican leader Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Gonzalo Banda, a Peruvian political analyst and doctoral researcher at University College of London’s Institute of the Americas, called Belmont an “anti-establishment candidate catching votes from the right, the left and the centre”. The 80-year-old is also known for making xenophobic and sexist remarks. López Aliaga, who was Lima’s mayor until a few months ago, has run a hard-right campaign littered with disinformation, hate speech and threats against journalists and opponents. But the 65-year-old rail magnate, who has opposed same-sex marriage and pledged to refuse abortion to underage rape victims, has slipped in the polls. The surprise entry is Álvarez, one of Peru’s best-known comedians, who has been imitating presidents for the last three decades. However, his proposals are far from lighthearted. He describes himself as an admirer of Donald Trump and El Salvador’s leader, Nayib Bukele, and his tough-on-crime campaign has focused on megaprisons and the death penalty. “It is ironically poetic that due to this cycle of [political] decay in Peru, we could end up with a comedy performer who imitates politicians as president,” said Banda. Other candidates include Roberto Sánchez, who has been endorsed by the ousted former populist leader Pedro Castillo and wears the same style of wide-brimmed sombrero. Centrist candidates include a former defence minister, Jorge Nieto, and a former university rector, Alfonso López Chau. Torrado said: “No political leader has emerged who can generate a sense of hope, a feeling that this person could change the country’s political course or solve its problems. Peruvians feel that in recent years, politicians have turned their backs on the people.”

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‘We waited 12 years’: escapees from Syria’s camps face an uncertain future

For weeks he hovered near Turkey’s border with Syria hoping for good news. In early February, Xhetan Ndregjoni got word of what he was waiting for – his niece Eva was on her way after escaping the squalid desert camp in Syria where she had been held without charge since she was a child. “I don’t have the words to describe that moment,” Ndregjoni said of their reunion. The family’s ordeal had stretched back more than a decade, when Eva Dumani, then nine, and her younger brother, seven, were kidnapped from their home in Albania and taken to Syria by her father, who was later killed fighting for Islamic State. Dumani’s release was a rare moment of joy amid what has been described as an unfolding catastrophe in northern Syria. The gradual emptying of al-Hawl camp – where thousands of women and children from more than 40 countries with alleged ties to IS have been arbitrarily detained for years – has left many abandoned in a post-conflict zone, vulnerable to exploitation and raising fresh security fears. The camp’s collapse, along with the uncertainty over the future of the smaller al-Roj facility, where many western European and Australian citizens are being kept – including Shamima Begum, who travelled to Syria from the UK aged 15 – has led to renewed calls for governments to repatriate citizens held for years without charge or trial. “People are going to come back whether you want them to or not, specifically if they’ve escaped,” said Devorah Margolin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. About 6,000 foreign nationals from countries including Serbia, Bosnia and Albania were detained at al-Hawl after the fall of IS in 2019, many of them women and children. Most have languished for years in what Human Rights Watch described as “inhuman, degrading, and life-threatening” conditions, marked by chronic shortages of food and medicine as well as violence by women still loyal to the IS. Margolin said the camp’s emptying exposed how governments that had hesitated or refused to repatriate citizens could no longer turn a blind eye. “People will get back into Europe. And so to have a proactive plan in which you can focus on trauma-informed care, reintegration, disengagement as well as security monitoring is a much better security practice than allowing people to sneak in and not addressing it at all,” she said. “That’s asking for something bad to happen.” Alongside Dumani, Belgian authorities said a woman charged in absentia for IS membership had also returned in February and was arrested on arrival. A source also told the Guardian of another woman from western Europe who had managed to smuggle herself from al-Hawl to Lebanon, where she turned up at her country’s embassy and requested assistance with repatriation. At al-Roj more than 30 Australians recently attempted to leave the camp on their own and return home, only to be turned back at the last minute. In a recent interview in al-Roj, Elona Shuli – the eldest of three sisters brought to Syria as children and married to an IS fighter at 13 – said she hoped to be repatriated by Albania. Clutching her two children, she spoke while glancing at an Albanian woman standing nearby. A relative later said more extremist Albanian women act as “enforcers” towards Shuli and her two younger sisters, attempting to keep them aligned with IS ideology. The Albanian government have told Shuli’s family that it cannot repatriate her as it cannot locate her exact location in al Roj camp. The Guardian located Shuli within minutes, after giving the camp administration her name and being led to her tent. Across Europe there has been little public acknowledgment of the shifting situation in Syria, despite long-running concerns about IS-linked individuals returning. The collapse of al-Hawl, and uncertainty over al-Roj, means women and children risk being left to navigate a conflict zone alone, said Beatrice Eriksson of the rights organisation Repatriate the Children. She said many women had contacted their governments for help, often without response. Eriksson said these children and their mothers were facing an “immediate threat”. “Responsible countries need to step in now and assist their citizens to get home, there’s no more time to waste. There are non-state groups in Syria who have an interest in recruiting, coercing and exploiting these children and their mothers,” she added. Research by Human Rights Watch found many repatriated children were able to reintegrate successfully, despite being held in conditions so dire the organisation warned their cumulative psychological impact may “amount to torture”. While Eriksson welcomed Dumani’s return to Albania, she said it was “disturbing” that it had been left to her family to bring her to safety. “Eva’s uncle is a true hero,” she said. Dumani’s grandmother had previously travelled to Syria to bring her grandchildren home but was detained and died after six years without charge. Dumani was left alone after her brother was repatriated in 2020. After escaping al-Hawl earlier this year, Dumani walked for four hours to reach a main road, where she had arranged for smugglers to meet her and take her to Turkey, her uncle told the Guardian. Albanian officials said they helped her to travel from Turkey to Albania. Once home, she could finally hug her family. “We had been waiting for this moment for 12 years,” Ndregjoni said. “It was incredibly emotional when she saw her brother and mother.” He said Dumani, now 20, was adjusting well to life at home. She has started high school, eager to make up for the education she had missed while detained. Now his concern has shifted to the 25 or so Albanians still trapped in northern Syria. “We ask the government to bring back home the other children who are in this situation, it’s really important for them to have their kids at home too,” he said.

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‘Never been closer’: UFO watchers buoyed by Trump and Vance’s alien ‘obsession’

Like most politicians, Donald Trump did not campaign on the issue of space aliens. But 15 months into his second term, UFO enthusiasts have been buoyed by the Trump administration’s apparent fascination with extraterrestrials, with one expert claiming the human race has “never been closer” to being presented with hard evidence of aliens. After a largely alien-free first 12 months, the president has committed himself to UFO disclosure in 2026. In February, Trump directed various departments to release “government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life”, and the White House took the unusual step of registering domain “aliens.gov” in March, setting pulses racing among believers online. UFO watchers have been further buoyed because the president is surrounded by extraterrestrial believers in his professional and personal life. JD Vance has said he is “obsessed” with UFOs. The vice-president, an enthusiastic Christian, believes they are “demons” rather than aliens – while Donald Trump Jr, the president’s adult son, declared last year that there is “evidence of non-human intelligence out there engaging with our planet”. With an alien-curious government seemingly in place, some in the UFO-watching community believe the groundwork has been laid for disclosure. The Department of Defense said it plans to release “never-before-seen UAP [unidentified unidentified anomalous phenomenon] information”, and the issue is gaining momentum in Congress too: last week, Tim Burchett, a Republican congressman from Tennessee, used an interview to proclaim “we are not alone”. The developments come after a series of remarkable UFO hearings have been held in Washington in recent years. In 2023, David Grusch, a former intelligence official, testified to Congress that the US had operated a “multi-decade” program which collected, and attempted to reverse-engineer, crashed UFOs. The government said it had not done this. “We’ve never been closer to disclosure,” said Stephen Bassett, one of the most prominent voices in the UFO world and the founder of Paradigm Research Group, an organization which lobbies the government to release information about aliens. “The president of the United States is now in a position where he could do this tomorrow, he could set up for a quick press conference out of the Oval Office and confirm in a few minutes that we’re not alone.” Bassett, who has previously claimed the Vatican has information on aliens, said there had been an “unprecedented” amount of UFO chatter from the administration, with Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, also telling an interviewer last year that she believes in the possibility of extraterrestrials. He believes that the open discussion of UFOs has normalized the topic, creating a “ripe” situation for Trump to announce aliens exist. He said Trump’s ego, coupled with the Jeffrey Epstein saga, could contribute to the president declaring aliens to be real. “It would be a huge legacy. It would guarantee him, probably, a Pulitzer Prize. He would go down in history – no matter what else happens during his presidency – that will be forgotten well before people stop talking about the fact that he was the head of state and made the most profound announcement in human history,” Bassett said. The White House did not respond to a request for comment. Trump has given no indication that he intends to announce aliens exist. Others in the UFO world are more circumspect than Bassett, but excitement is undoubtedly growing – including among members of Congress. Last week, Burchett, the Tennessee congressman, said he had had a recent classified UFO briefing which “would set the Earth on fire” were he to share the details, while Anna Paulina Luna, also a Republican, wrote to the department of defense demanding it release 46 videos of UFO sightings. Earlier this year Luna, from Florida, said the government was going to release “a lot of cool stuff” pertaining to aliens. An official from the defense department, who asked to be referred to as a “war department official”, said: “The Department of War’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) is working in close coordination with the White House and across federal agencies to consolidate existing UAP records collections and facilitate the expeditious release of never-before-seen UAP information.” Jordan Flowers, executive director of the Disclosure Foundation, which works to expand transparency about UAPs, seemed hopeful about what the administration might release, although he did not go as far as Bassett. “This administration certainly seems to have a greater sense of will and interest and determination than what we have than what we have seen previously,” Flowers said. “We are cautiously optimistic that there can be incremental information released that would help us understand what is happening here.” Flowers said a short-term win would be the government agreeing to Luna’s request to release the 46 videos. The Disclosure Foundation is hosting an event on UAPs with Mike Rounds, the Republican senator from South Dakota, in Washington in June, which Flowers said could prompt “a dramatic sea change in being able to discuss this topic credibly on Capitol Hill”. In the meantime, people who believe in aliens – and want the government to confirm their existence – will have to put their faith in a government that has shown a rare interest in what has traditionally been a taboo topic. Vance, seen as the potential Republican presidential candidate in 2028, certainly seems like he won’t let the issue die. “I have not been able to spend enough time on this, but I am going to,” he told a rightwing podcast last month. “Trust me, I’m obsessed with this.”

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At least 30 killed in crush at historic fortress in Haiti

At least 30 people, many of them young, have died and dozens more are reported to have been injured after a crush at a mountaintop fortress in northern Haiti that is a popular tourist spot. Jean Henri Petit, the head of civil protection for the country’s Nord department, said the incident took place on Saturday at Citadelle Henry, also known as Citadelle Laferrière, a large 19th-century fortress built shortly after the Caribbean country’s independence from France. He told the local newspaper Le Nouvelliste that the death toll could rise due to the large number of people reported missing. Several dozen people were taken to hospital, the outlet reported. Initial reports said visitors were crammed against a single entrance and a scuffle broke out between those trying to leave and enter the site. Other local media reports said a gathering took place after being advertised on TikTok. There were also reports of rumours that police at the site used too much teargas to break up a fight near the citadel, which caused people to panic and triggered a crush. The country’s culture minister, Emmanuel Menard, confirmed that 30 people had died. He said: “The injured are currently receiving the necessary medical care, and a rescue team is searching for any missing persons.” Menard said the fortress, which was listed as a Unesco world heritage site in 1982, would remain closed to visitors until further notice. Haiti’s prime minister’s office expressed “deep sadness”, in a government statement posted on Facebook, and said the crush occurred during “a tourist activity bringing together many young people”. The government urged citizens to “be calm and cautious” while it investigated. “All competent authorities are fully mobilised and placed on maximum alert to provide, without delay, the necessary assistance, care and support,” it added in its statement. The crush comes as Haiti continues to grapple with widespread violence by gangs that have massacred civilians, as well as an increasingly deadly crackdown by security forces. Haiti, the poorest country in the western hemisphere, has also been badly hit by rising oil prices caused by the conflict in Iran. On 2 April, the government announced a 37% increase in the cost of diesel and a 29% increase in the cost of gasoline. The surge in oil prices has disrupted critical supply chains, doubled transportation costs and forced millions of undernourished people to cut back on already scarce meals. The country has experienced various disasters in recent years, including a 2024 fuel tank explosion that killed two dozen people, another fuel tank blast in 2021 that killed 90 people, and an earthquake that left about 2,000 people dead that same year. Reuters, Associated Press and Agence France-Presse contributed to this report

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JD Vance says talks failed due to Iran’s refusal to give up nuclear programme

The US vice-president, JD Vance, has blamed the failure of marathon negotiations with Iran on the country’s refusal to abandon its nuclear weapons programme, while Iranian delegates have claimed Washington needs to do more to win their trust. Vance, who left Islamabad on Sunday morning after 21 hours of talks with Iranian officials in the Pakistani capital, said his team had been very clear on its red lines, as hopes faded of a quick end to the conflict that began on 28 February. The vice-president said he spoke with Donald Trump at least half a dozen times during the talks, and one of the most significant points of difference between the two sides was on Iran’s nuclear programme. “We need to see an affirmative commitment that [Iran] will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon,” he said. “That is the core goal of the president of the United States, and that’s what we’ve tried to achieve through these negotiations.” Vance added that while the failure to reach an agreement in Islamabad was “bad news”, it was “bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America”. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led Iran in the negotiations, said although he and his colleagues had offered “constructive initiatives”, the US had been “unable to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations”. He said it was now up to Washington “to decide whether it can gain our trust or not”. The country’s foreign ministry downplayed the apparent breakdown in the talks, saying no one had held any expectation that they would reach an agreement within one session. “Naturally, from the beginning we should not have expected to reach an agreement in a single session. No one had such an expectation,” the ministry’s spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said, according to the state broadcaster IRIB. He said Tehran was “confident that contacts between us and Pakistan, as well as our other friends in the region, will continue”. Meanwhile, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said “excessive” US demands had hindered reaching an agreement. Neither Washington nor Tehran has said what will happen after the 14-day ceasefire initially agreed by the US, Iran and Israel, but Pakistani mediators called on the US and Iran to refrain from renewing hostilities. “It is imperative that the parties continue to uphold their commitment to the ceasefire,” said Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, adding that his country would try to facilitate a new dialogue between Iran and the US in the coming days. The war, which began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran six week ago, has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran, 2,020 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states. It has caused lasting damage to infrastructure in half a dozen Middle Eastern countries. The Israeli security cabinet minister Ze’ev Elkin told Army Radio that more talks were still an option, but added: “The Iranians are playing with fire.” The talks in Islamabad were the first direct US-Iranian meeting in more than a decade and the highest-level discussions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The final outcome could determine the fate of the fragile ceasefire and the reopening of the strait of Hormuz, a choke point for about 20% of global energy supplies that Iran has blocked since the war began. The conflict has sent global oil prices soaring. Vance, the US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner met Ghalibaf and the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, for two hours before a rest, according to a Pakistani source. The Iranian delegation arrived on Friday dressed in black in mourning for the late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and others killed in the war. They carried shoes and bags of children killed during the bombing of a school next to a military compound, the Iranian government said. The Pentagon has said the strike is under investigation but Reuters has reported that military investigators believe the US was probably responsible for it. “There were mood swings from the two sides, and the temperature went up and down during the meeting,” said another Pakistani source in reference to the first round of talks. Islamabad, a city of more than 2 million people, was locked down for the talks with thousands of paramilitary personnel and army troops on the streets. Pakistan’s mediating role is a remarkable transformation for a nation that was a diplomatic outcast a year ago. As the talks started, the US military said it was “setting the conditions” to start clearing the strait of Hormuz. The strategic waterway is central to the discussions. The US military said two of its warships had passed through the strait, and conditions were being set to clear mines, while Iran’s state media denied any US ships had been through it. Before the talks began, a senior Iranian source told Reuters that the US had agreed to release frozen assets in Qatar and other foreign banks. A US official denied agreeing to release the money. As well as the release of assets abroad, Tehran is demanding control of the strait of Hormuz, payment of war reparations and a ceasefire across the region including in Lebanon, according to Iranian state TV and officials. Tehran also wants to collect transit fees in the strait of Hormuz. Trump’s stated goals have shifted, but as a minimum he wants free passage for global shipping through the strait and the crippling of Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme to ensure it cannot produce an atomic bomb.

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From brutal occupation to brazen recruitment: Russia turns Bucha residents against their own

On a recent evening in March, Bohdan Tymchenko, a quiet and unassuming man from Bucha, logged on to his computer to play the popular video game World of Tanks. Less than two weeks later, he planted two bombs outside his flat. What unfolded in the intervening days offers a stark glimpse into a growing pattern: Ukrainians drawn in online by Russian intelligence services, promised money or coerced into carrying out sabotage attacks against their own country. That the bombing occurred in Bucha – a leafy town on the outskirts of Kyiv that has become synonymous with the brutality of Russia’s invasion – has only deepened the shock. Ukrainian investigators believe Tymchenko, 21, who lived with his grandmother in a five-storey apartment block, was first approached by a Russian handler in the video game’s online chat. The suspected agent then guided him on the messaging app Telegram, step by step, instructing him how to source materials, assemble the devices in his flat and carry out the attack. Tymchenko was promised $1,200 (£900) in return. The explosions, in the early hours of the morning, had the hallmarks of a double-tap attack. An initial blast outside the building at about 5.30am was followed by a second device detonating nearly two hours later, injuring two officers after police had arrived. “It’s a stab in the back. It doesn’t really get worse than one of your own citizens doing this,” said Dmytro Prokudin, the head of the Kyiv regional prosecutor’s office. “And we are seeing this more and more.” Ukraine’s security service, the SBU, has identified more than 800 Ukrainians, including at least 240 minors, recruited by Russia over the past two years with targets ranging from critical infrastructure to draft offices. The goal, officials say, is to spread uncertainty, fear and distrust. For residents of the apartment block in Bucha, the idea that the threat could come from within has been deeply unsettling. “I simply don’t understand how this could happen here, done by someone you see every day,” said Inna, a pensioner who lives next door to Tymchenko. Inna survived the town’s brief Russian occupation in the spring of 2022 but lost friends. More than 400 bodies were discovered after the town’s liberation, including civilians with their hands bound. “Russia wants to make us feel unsafe and create chaos, after everything we have already been through,” Inna said. Like others, she initially assumed the first explosion was the result of a Russian drone or missile strike, only to be left confused when there had been no air raid alert. Another resident said she had noticed two large black rubbish bags near the entrance while walking her dog late that night, hours before the blasts, but thought nothing of it. “How could I imagine they were bombs? It didn’t even cross my mind,” she said, stroking her chihuahua. Some in Bucha believed they had seen the suspect lurking behind trees during the blasts, detonating the devices from up close. Investigators are looking into the reports. There had been no obvious warning signs about Tymchenko, people in Bucha said. He was described as shy, largely keeping to himself and spending much of his time at home, unemployed. What makes the case even more puzzling for prosecutors is that Tymchenko came from a military family. His brother was killed fighting for Ukraine and posthumously awarded a medal for bravery, while his mother continues to serve as a medic in the armed forces. “We are still trying to establish his motive and whether he was specifically targeted because of his background or simply approached at random,” said Prokudin. In most cases, Ukrainian officials believe, Russian handlers cast a wide net online, probing potential recruits in casual conversations before escalating contact. “The recruiter logs in, starts chatting and, after a few questions, quickly understands whether a person is willing to cooperate. That’s the playbook,” said Prokudin, adding that money was usually the main motivator. At other times, Ukrainian relatives living in Russian-occupied territories are used to exert pressure on recruits. The convoluted nature of the recruitment scheme, involving multiple intermediaries and Telegram handlers, makes it difficult to trace and identify. “There are clearly large numbers of Russians working on sabotage operations inside our country, identifying and exploiting weak links,” Prokudin said. Appearing in court last month, Tymchenko said he had been blackmailed, claiming his handler told him they knew his mother’s whereabouts and could “see her from a drone”. Investigators believe his original plan may have been disrupted. On the evening before the explosion, a woman called police to report a domestic incident at the flat. Officers grew suspicious after tracing the call to a distant region. Fake calls have been used across the country to lure first responders into traps, creating a climate of distrust. “The initial idea appears to have been to lure police to the scene and detonate the first device before setting off a second one when back up would arrive,” the prosecutor said. Prokudin described how police were recently called after a woman reported that her husband had killed their daughter and taken his own life. Officers hesitated to enter, even though the report was real. “We are being called to inspect what sounds like a domestic tragedy, but we cannot be sure whether it is real or a setup. This is exactly Russia’s goal,” he said. Russia’s use of proxies in Ukraine, western officials say, should be seen as part of a broader pattern. Across Europe, intelligence agencies have been grappling with a wave of Russian sabotage, arson and disinformation, often carried out by individuals recruited online. “Moscow’s sabotage activities in Ukraine mirror what we are seeing elsewhere in Europe,” said a senior European intelligence officer, speaking on condition of anonymity. “They use the same tactics, the same methods, the same platforms. Ukraine is often the testing ground.”

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Benin holds presidential election four months after failed coup

This Sunday, just four months after a failed coup, Benin heads to the polls for a presidential election that feels more like a coronation than a contest. Patrice Talon, the businessman turned politician who has been president since 2016, is ineligible to run again after serving two five-year terms. The winner of Sunday’s election will have the chance to run for two seven-year terms instead, after a controversial constitutional amendment elongated presidential tenures. Romuald Wadagni, the country’s finance minister who emerged as the ruling coalition’s candidate without any primaries, is overwhelmingly the favourite to win this weekend. According to the investigative newsletter Africa Confidential, the path to a Wadagni win was cleared with ruthless efficiency as other possible contenders were sidelined, placated or removed. Wadagni, who speaks English fluently after years as a technocrat in the US, is seen as the architect of Benin’s recent fiscal stability in the Talon era. He has vowed to implement free schooling and more jobs, appealing promises in a country where young people account for more than half of the population. If the 49-year-old emerges as the winner, he will be one of the youngest leaders on a continent where the average presidential age is 65. West and central Africa is home to two of the world’s longest-serving leaders in Cameroon’s 93-year-old Paul Biya and Equatorial Guinea’s Teodoro Obiang Nguema, 83. A peaceful democratic transition after the failed coup also presents Benin an opportunity to buck another regional trend: at least three of its neighbours are ruled by juntas. But Talon’s critics say he is also a strongman in a similar mould and have accused him of crushing dissent despite noticeable development in the country. Discontent trickled down to some troops and coalesced into December’s attempted military takeover. But many believe the soldiers also acted because of a rise in jihadist attacks at its borders with Burkina Faso, Niger and Nigeria. Several newspapers have been closed indefinitely by authorities after publishing information critical of the government. Hugues Sossoukpè, a journalist who had been in exile in Togo since 2021, was arrested on Ivorian soil by Beninese agents last July. He remains in Ouidah prison, tagged as a “dangerous cyberactivist who advocates terrorism”. “Civic space continues to shrink in Benin with a wave of attacks on independent media outlets and people still being arbitrarily arrested and detained for dissent,” said Dieudonné Dagbéto, the head of Amnesty International Benin. “Despite progress, women and marginalised groups face discrimination, while forced evictions jeopardise the human rights of thousands of people.” There are also concerns about Benin increasingly becoming a one-party state. In 2024, parliament raised the thresholds for candidacy, now requiring parties to get at least 10% of the vote to secure seats and for an aspiring president to be sponsored by at least 15% of the country’s mayors and lawmakers. That helped the ruling coalition win all 109 seats in January’s legislative elections as opposition parties found it extremely difficult to make the cut. Only 36% of the approximately 7.8 million people registered to vote showed up for the January poll. Ahead of this weekend, there are concerns about a similar outcome. The main opposition to Wadagni is the former culture minister Paul Hounkpè of Cowry Forces for an Emerging Benin (FCBE), a fringe opposition party. He is seen as a token candidate after cutting a deal with the ruling coalition to meet the required threshold. Unable to meet the requirements, the lead opposition party, the Democrats, are not presenting any candidates. While they have not called for a boycott, they have refused to back anyone in this weekend’s election. In fact, the party suspended almost two dozen members for anti-party activities after reportedly endorsing the ruling coalition candidate. “The disqualification of our duo [candidate and running mate] is a programmed exclusion,” it said in a statement after the constitutional court affirmed the exclusion last October. “It proves that the 2026 election is being organised to exclude any serious challenger to the ruling power.”