Explosions that have been heard across Damascus and Syria’s countryside are from Israeli air defences intercepting Iranian missiles, Syrian state television is reportedly saying. The Israeli military is also being quoted as saying missiles have been fired from Iran and defence systems are operating to intercept them.
Gurvinder Singh never thought the war in Iran would touch his quiet corner of Punjab. Yet looking out over his smallholding, where he alternates between wheat and rice crops in the state known as India’s breadbasket, the 52-year-old farmer can barely think of anything else. His anxiety over a conflict playing out thousands of miles away is crippling as he fears what will come of this season’s rice crop. “We are already struggling with profits,” Singh said. “If we don’t get fertilisers, there will be less yield. That will affect my entire family and the entire region, because we are completely dependent on agriculture. “We are praying this war stops because it will not spare us either,” he added. Iran’s decision to blockade one of the world’s critical shipping routes, the strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for the US and Israel’s decision to launch strikes on the country over a month ago, has sent the world into a dizzying tailspin over the impact on oil and gas supplies from the Gulf states, which are now facing a global shortage. Yet analysts and global bodies warn that this impact will soon extend far beyond exorbitant prices for oil barrels and could prove devastating for global food security. There are rising fears of food shortages and shrinking stockpiles, particularly in developing countries, as agriculture is incapacitated. The World Food Programme has estimated that an extra 45 million people could be pushed into acute food insecurity if the conflict does not end by June. Experts say South Asian countries such as India and Sri Lanka are particularly vulnerable, due to their heavy reliance on imported fertilisers and imported gas and fuel for farming. India is the world’s second-largest fertiliser consumer after China, using more than 60m tonnes annually, and most of its exports – including both finished products and raw materials – usually come from Gulf countries, shipped through the strait of Hormuz. In countries such as India, the ripple effects of a gas and fertiliser shortage could be felt for months to come, affecting what crops farmers are able to plant and how much they yield, which could ultimately translate into stockpiles of essential produce such as rice falling short. The ability for farmers to water, harvest, process, store and transport crops will also be drastically hit by oil and diesel shortages and surging electricity prices, triggering further worries over shortages. India spent more than 1.8tn rupees ($22bn) on fertiliser subsidies in 2023-24, underscoring how critical is it to India’s farmers and how sensitive the agriculture sector is to global price shocks. Devinder Sharma, an agricultural economist, said early signals pointed to tightening supplies and rising costs due to the war that were already being passed on to farmers. “Indian agriculture remains heavily dependent on chemical fertilisers. Any disruption quickly creates anxiety,” he said. The conflict has already begun to strain supply chains. Farmers say they are particularly concerned about urea, the nitrogen-based fertiliser that is central to India’s farming. It is widely used as a primary nutrient and its annual consumption is about 35m to 40m tonnes. While much of it is produced domestically, production relies on imported natural gas, which is already in tight supply in the country. Gas supplies to these factories have been cut by 30%. In key grain-producing states such as Punjab and Haryana, farmers say the immediate impact is not yet visible but there is panic. Procurement for the kharif season typically begins in May, ahead of sowing of crops such as rice and cotton in June and July, leaving a narrow window before fertiliser shortages could start to affect the harvest yield. The kharif season in India usually produces about 100m tonnes of rice. Farmers would usually buy fertiliser in the next 15 to 20 days, but many are stocking up in advance. “In my 35 years in this business, I have not seen such panic,” said Prakash Limbuyya Swami, a fertiliser retailer in Hubballi, Karnataka. Officials are insistent that fertiliser plants are operating normally and that buffer stocks are higher than last year, despite earlier reports suggesting that several plants are facing gas shortages. “Currently, we have higher stocks compared to last year, indicating a healthy supply position,” said Aparna S Sharma, a senior official in the department of fertilisers, adding that sourcing is being diversified beyond traditional suppliers in the Gulf. But despite these assurances, anxiety persists among farmers. Many small-scale farmers in India already operate with heavy losses and are crushed by debt, despite substantial state subsidies for crops, in a system that agricultural experts have long described as broken and exploitative. “Because of the panic, farmers around me have started hoarding fertilisers, despite their limited shelf life,” said Tejveer Singh, whose farm is in Ambala in Punjab. “Any shortage will affect our productivity. Farmers are already under stress due to rising costs. This will be a big blow.” In Sri Lanka, the fears of running low on essential crop nutrients have proved particularly haunting. It was less than five years ago that the country’s farmers faced a similar situation, amid an economic crisis that left Sri Lanka unable to buy imported fertiliser, and resulted in devastating profit losses and shortages of essential crops. According to a UN report, Sri Lanka was highlighted as one of the most vulnerable countries after Sudan if the conflict in the Gulf dragged and continued to block fertiliser supplies. P Amila, a farmer from Bibila in Monaragala district, said he was already being warned of massive pice increases. As a result, he had decided not to sow next season’s rice crop over fear of getting into greater debt. “This is the most volatile situation I have faced in 30 years of farming,” he said. “It won’t be easy in the future. I worry, what will people do when they don’t have rice to buy?” The Sri Lankan government said they had taken steps to control prices and ration and fairly distribute fertiliser to the regions that needed it most, particularly the districts on the east coast where the next yala harvest seasons had already begun for rice. But Anuradha Tennakoon, the chairman of the National Agrarian Unity, warned that Sri Lanka’s impending fertiliser crisis was even bigger than its fuel crisis. “The government and officials keep saying there is enough fertilisers. That is a big lie. There are no stocks,” he said. “If this yala season is affected, there is a serious food security issue. The disruption of food security poses a threat to national security.” In Polonnaruwa, farmer Ranjit Hulugalle said fertiliser stocks in his region were already running low and had almost doubled in price. He described the situation as a “minefield” for both farmers and consumers. “We, as farmers, are going to face a massive crisis in a month,” he said in despair. “Then the country is going to face a food crisis.”
One US service member has been rescued after a US F-15E Strike Eagle fighter was shot down over Iran, prompting a frantic effort to locate its two-strong crew, in the first such incident since the war began almost five weeks ago. US officials familiar with the situation said one crew member was still missing late on Friday, after Iranian state media released images of a tail fin and other debris accompanied by an initial claim that an advanced US F-35 had been hit by a new air defence system over central Iran. Aviation experts said the wreckage pictured was in fact from a F-15E, from the US air force’s 494th squadron, based at RAF Lakenheath in the UK, though it could not at first be confirmed when and where the pictures were taken. Markings on the wreckage appeared to match those on the tips of the tail fins of Strike Eagles normally based in the UK. US officials later confirmed off the record that an F-15E had been brought down and the Pentagon was scrambling to find the crew before the Iranians. There was no official comment from the US military about the incident. The downing of a US fighter jet comes just days after Donald Trump delivered a bellicose national address in which he claimed the US had “beaten and completely decimated Iran” and the conflict was “nearing completion”. “We have all the cards. They have none,” the US president declared on Wednesday. The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said Trump had been briefed but she did not offer any additional information. In a brief interview with NBC News, the president declined to discuss the search and rescue mission but said the incident would not affect negotiations with Iran. “No, not at all,” he said. “No, it’s war. We’re in war.” Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency said on Friday that Tehran had rejected a US proposal for a 48-hour ceasefire, citing an unnamed source. Details of the rescue mission were few but it is likely to have been a high-risk operation with rescue aircraft potentially exposed to fire from the ground. The status of the second crew member was unclear, with rescue efforts continuing as evening fell in Iran. Subsequent footage filmed in Iran showed a US C-130 Hercules and a HH-60 Pave Hawk helicopter flying low in south-west Iran, and at one point refuelling together during their rescue operation. An Iranian businessman offered to pay a reward worth $60,000 (£45,000) to anyone capturing the crew members alive. And a presenter on an Iranian TV channel, based in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province, a mountainous region in the south-west of the country, urged residents to hand over any “enemy pilot” to police and promised a reward for anyone who did. That gave a clue to the location of the incident. Geolocated footage of low-flying rescue aircraft indicated planes flying near Behbahan, in the neighbouring province of Khuzestan, around 30 miles from the Gulf coast. The Iranian parliament speaker, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf , ridiculed the US, posting on social media: “After defeating Iran 37 times in a row, this brilliant no-strategy war they started has now been downgraded from ‘regime change’ to: ‘Hey! Can anyone find our pilots? Please?’” No US troops have so far been taken prisoner by Iran. Thirteen American service personnel have been killed and 300 wounded during a campaign in which more than 12,300 targets in Iran have been bombed by the US alone. A social media account claiming to be linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards posted a picture of an ejector seat in a desert landscape, which appeared to be consistent with the ACES II type used in F-15Es. Justin Bronk, an aviation expert from Rusithe Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), said: “If genuine, it would suggest that at least one of the two aircrew did eject safely.” Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that the pilot of the jet had been taken into custody, contradicting Tehran’s initial claim that the pilot had probably died in the incident. But nothing then emerged to verify the revised Iranian statement. The New York Times reported that a second US air force combat plane crashed in the Persian Gulf region on Friday, but the lone pilot was safely rescued. The A-10 Warthog attack plane went down near the strait of Hormuz at roughly the same time as the air force F-15E was shot down over Iran, according to two US officials. Iranian state media said its air defence system had targeted an “enemy” A-10 aircraft in southern waters near the strait of Hormuz. Up to now no US fighter jets had been lost over Iran during the five-week-long conflict, though three F-15Es were shot down by a Kuwaiti air defence system in a dramatic friendly fire incident on 1 March. The total cost to the US air force of lost and damaged aircraft, which also includes 16 uncrewed Reaper drones, has been estimated at more than $3bn by the specialist news site Airforce Technology. An F-15E cost $31m when delivered in the late 1990s; newer models cost closer to $100m. Meanwhile, powerful blasts rocked northern Tehran, as Israel said it had launched a new wave of strikes on the Iranian capital and Beirut. The Associated Press also reported, citing an Israeli official, that Israel had suspended airstrikes in areas “relevant” to the rescue operation in Iran. Late on Thursday, the US president reiterated his threat to bomb Iran’s infrastructure, hours after he claimed credit for an attack on a newly built 136-metre-high (446ft) suspension bridge between Tehran and Karaj that killed eight people and injured 95. “Our Military, the greatest and most powerful (by far!) anywhere in the World, hasn’t even started destroying what’s left in Iran. Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants!” he posted on social media, repeating a threat to destroy Iran’s electricity network. Fresh footage on Friday showed that the $400m bridge, on a highway between the Iranian capital and a city to the north-west, had been severed in three places by the bombing, increasing the cost of its eventual repair. More than 100 international law experts signed a joint statement on the Just Security website warning that statements made by Trump and other senior US officials, and the conduct of US forces “raise serious concerns about violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law, including potential war crimes”. A particular concern, they said, was threats made by the US to Iran’s energy infrastructure. “International law protects from attack objects indispensable to the survival of civilians, and the attacks threatened by Trump, if implemented, could entail war crimes.” A power and desalination plant in Kuwait was damaged in an attack on Friday, though Iran blamed Israel for the attack. The Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in the Gulf country was also closed after a drone strike from Iran, while the UK announced it had agreed to send a counter drone team to help the country in its defence. Israeli media reported that the US had told Israel it did not want Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to be killed because Americans wanted to have at least one senior political figure available who could negotiate a peace agreement. Iran’s regime, however, has so far shown little desire to stop fighting. Sirens sounded repeatedly in Israel, as missile attacks from Iran and Lebanon continued but casualty numbers were small, with 12 people treated for physical injuries by the country’s emergency medical service in the past 24 hours. Israel also carried out fresh strikes on south Beirut after issuing an evacuation order for the area, which has largely been emptied of residents amid repeated raids.
In our crazy, unregulated world, we watch the unedifying spectacle of two rogue nations, each awash with nuclear weapons, going to war to stop a third rogue nation from acquiring similar weaponry (Editorial, 30 March). The resulting conflict is bringing chaos, death and destruction to the Middle East, and instability and unknowable consequences to the rest of us. If this is the new “world order”, where rogue nations are free to pick and choose their next acquisitions, it surely gives the green light to those with more legitimate claims – China with Taiwan, Spain with Gibraltar, Argentina with the Falklands. So, what can be done to halt this descent into madness? The UK has waning influence on the world stage and our political classes are dangerously intertwined with both aggressors, leaving them with very little room for manoeuvre at a national level. It is left to us as individuals to do what we can, and I suggest we learn from the successful campaign against apartheid in South Africa. There, a boycott of products from that country and a cricket embargo was instrumental in changing minds. A healthy swerving of US and Israeli products and services, combined with a disengagement from this summer’s Fifa World Cup, might begin to persuade both nations to rethink their antagonism to those of us beyond their shores. David Tayler Bristol • Your editorial lays out the difficult issues currently facing the US and Iran succinctly and clearly, which is why, in my opinion, it fails to encapsulate the spirit of this rampage in the Middle East. Succinct and clear are not the hallmarks of Donald Trump’s campaign of vengeance and retribution. The name of this campaign, Epic Fury, says it all. This name represents the hyperbolic truth. Ideas of achieving nuclear compliance and regime change were just grist to throw into the media mill. The only purpose of this destabilising, chaotic war is to vent ire and demonstrate God’s wrath. It’s Trump’s way of booking a gold-tap suite in Hotel Heaven. You may laugh, but there is some serious craziness in Trump’s methods. He didn’t spend all that time and effort building an obedient rightwing regime to spread democracy and fairness for all. He’s on a crusade. Earning atonement for all his multifarious transgressions. This murderous malarkey is earning him divine credits. He’ll stop when he’s bored with kicking the heathens around. Then he’ll get on with making America and crypto great again. Peter Gregory Marsham, Norfolk • Your editorial observes that the Iran war “should never have been started. The threat was not imminent, the objectives unclear and the justification fell apart under scrutiny.” This begs the question of why Keir Starmer does not now stand with Spain and deny the US military use of UK airspace. Despite an initial withholding of our bases from the US, we have, as in Gaza, quietly caved in to Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s perception that war and the threat of war is a replacement for diplomacy. The disaster for our economy and that of Europe could last for years. What we are being drawn into is profoundly immoral and profoundly illegal. It is not too late to U-turn and enforce our dissent. Rev Graham Murphy Liverpool • China, as you say in your editorial (26 March), “shows no interest in stepping up” to mediate in the Iran war. The question is why. Beijing repeatedly claims to practise “major country diplomacy” and yet fails to do so constructively. It’s similar to the Ukraine war, where China seems constrained by the Xi-Putin relationship to do nothing more than issue vague statements. The immediate advantages to China of letting two wars continue should be outweighed by the global benefits of peace. Friends of China (there are still quite a few) and governments with a voice there should be pressing Beijing to play the role it claims in both crises. John Gittings Former East Asia editor, the Guardian • Have an opinion on anything you’ve read in the Guardian today? Please email us your letter and it will be considered for publication in our letters section.
Several ships have now passed through the strait of Hormuz, according to reports, as shipping companies and international leaders scramble to get vital cargo through the waterway. A container ship owned by the French shipping company CMA CGM had sailed out of the Gulf, the Financial Times reported, citing the tracking data analyst MarineTraffic. It is believed to be the first ship owned by a western shipping line to have made the journey through the strait, which in normal times carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies and has been effectively closed since the start of the war in Iran in late February. The CMA CGM Kribi ship, which sails under the flag of Malta, is reported to have switched on its transponder near the coast off Dubai on 28 March before passing through the strait with cargo. The vessel then reportedly went around Larak Island, near the coast of Iran, which has become a popular route for ships making the transit. The blockade has pushed up oil and gas prices around the world, and concerns are growing about food security, as a third of the global trade in raw materials for fertiliser normally passes through the strait. Three tankers linked to Oman had also sailed through the channel, the FT said, without taking the northern route next to the Iranian island. One of them was a liquefied natural gas tanker co-owned by the Japanese company Mitsui OSK Lines. The Sohar LNG tanker, which sails under the flag of Panama, has made the journey, according to a statement made to Reuters. Mitsui OSK declined to disclose when the vessel had crossed the strait and whether it had made any negotiations to do so. This week the UK’s foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, said coordinated action was needed to pressure Iran into reopening the strait, after a virtual meeting of more than 40 countries. She also said that Britain would “comprehensively reject” any attempt to charge ships multimillion-dollar fees to pass through the strait, which has been nicknamed “Tehran’s tollbooth”. One option being considered by the UN is whether a humanitarian shipping corridor can be opened to ensure fertiliser gets through, to prevent food shortages in poorer countries. International leaders are expected to meet next week to discuss whether it may be possible to clear sea mines and rescue trapped ships in the strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump claimed on Friday that the US could “easily” open up the strait but that doing so would require “a little more time”. The US president wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social: “With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE. IT WOULD BE A “GUSHER” FOR THE WORLD???” A spokesperson for CMA CGM declined to comment.
Of all the countries being pulled into the US-Israeli war on Iran, it is Iraq – a country that still bears the emotional and physical scars of the last time the Americans tried to reshape the region by force – where the conflict has exposed some of the deepest rifts. The war is dividing those who see the attacks on Iran as a way to end Tehran’s longstanding influence over Iraqi politics from the self-declared loyalists of the Islamic republic, and cutting through state institutions, armed forces and Shia Islamist parties. Exacerbating tensions is the fact that the war has struck during a precarious power vacuum in Iraq after the caretaker leader Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, whose coalition won the largest share of seats in November’s parliamentary elections, stepped aside. Hours after the killing of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei at the start of the war, factions from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella body of Iran-backed armed groups, vowed to drag the US into a long war of attrition that would “leave no American presence in the region generally, especially in Iraq”. The group has claimed responsibility for scores of drone and missile attacks on targets in Iraq and neighbouring countries, such the US base in Erbil and the city’s international airport, Camp Victoria near Baghdad international airport, and compounds of US oil companies in Basra and northern Iraq, forcing the country to suspend production in big oilfields. In response, unclaimed airstrikes that have been widely attributed to US and Israeli forces have hit positions across the country, including in Jurf al-Sakhar, south of Baghdad, a stronghold for Kataib Hezbollah, one of the main pro-Iran factions, as well as other resistance forces’ bases in the south and north of the country, killing half a dozen commanders and scores of fighters. In Mosul, videos purported to show attack helicopters firing on checkpoints, while Iraqi army units were struck by as yet unknown forces in the western desert, killing one soldier and wounding three. In another sign that Iraq is being dragged further into the war, the US embassy in Baghdad’s green zone has been attacked repeatedly and it warned on Thursday that pro-Iran armed groups in Iraq might attack other parts of the city in the coming days. Kataib Hezbollah is also suspected to have been responsible for the abduction of a US reporter, Shelly Kittleson, late on Tuesday. The frequency of attacks had declined in recent days after Kataib Hezbollah declared a pause. But the group did not announce an extension on Wednesday night when the pause expired. The Iraqi government had sought to pursue an “Iraq first” policy, largely staying out of the post-7 October wars convulsing the region and trying to project an image of security services in control. As the conflict expands, Iraqi leaders have been trying to continue their balancing act, on one hand denouncing the killing of Khamenei and sending official condolences, while on the other rejecting attempts by Tehran to drag Iraq into the conflict, calling on security forces to go after those who threatened “diplomatic missions and oilfields”, and even going as far as firing a number of military and intelligence officers. But this balancing act is complicated by the fact that pro-Iran groups are also members of the PMU (Popular Mobilisation Units), a sprawling institution that is in theory part of the official army and under the authority of the commander-in-chief, but in reality operates according to its own agenda. These factions claim resistance legitimacy when attacking US targets, then denounce the strikes on their PMU brigade bases as attacks on Iraqi sovereignty. This contradiction exposes the weakness of the state, and the absurdity is not lost on Iraqis, with a joke circulating that while the US and Israel were attacking Iran, and Iran was attacking Israel and the Gulf countries, only Iraq was being bombed by everyone: Israel, the US, Iran, and Iraqis themselves. Though Washington and Baghdad have claimed to “intensify cooperation” to prevent attacks and ensure Iraqi territory is not used to launch assaults against US facilities, the US has blamed the Iraqi government for failing to prevent “terrorist attacks in or from Iraqi territory”. “Iran-aligned terrorist militia groups may claim to be associated with the Iraqi government,” the US embassy said. The Pentagon has said helicopters have carried out strikes against pro-Iran armed groups in Iraq during the war. Washington has strongly denied claims it has targeted Iraqi security forces. Furthermore, a looming financial disaster hangs over Iraq as a consequence of the crisis over the strait of Hormuz and the loss of oil revenue, which accounts for more than 90% of the country’s budget. Even before the latest escalation, US pressure and the threat of sanctions had forced some members of the pro-Iran Shia alliance in Iraq’s parliament, known as the Coordination Framework, to distance themselves from the more militant factions, fearing US economic and financial sanctions that could restrict the Iraqi state’s access to dollars – which in turn would cripple its ability to pay salaries and threaten the fragile post-2003 order, to say nothing of jeopardising the vast fortunes that the parties’ leaders have accumulated over the past two decades. As the US was building up its forces in the region, leaders from the Coordination Framework bowed to American pressure and withdrew the nomination of the former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, who is seen as close to Iran, to return to the top job. This followed a humiliating direct intervention by the new US envoy Tom Barrack, and indeed Donald Trump himself, who wrote in a social media post: “Last time Maliki was in power, the Country descended into poverty and total chaos … Because of his insane policies and ideologies, if elected, the United States of America will no longer help Iraq.” An aide to a senior political leader said of the Shia alliance: “After the killing of Khamenei, they are trying to further distance themselves from the factions. Some of their statements recently feel as if they were issued by the director of a humanitarian NGO, and not the head of a militia that built its legitimacy on fighting the Americans.” *** Many of the fighters and commanders of the resistance factions came of age in the aftermath of the US occupation of Iraq. Back then, Iran pursued a dual strategy: cultivating political and economic influence among Iraq’s new rulers, many of whom had spent years in exile in Tehran, and training and equipping a younger generation of men to help in their fight against American occupation forces. In the sectarian warfare that swept across the region after the failed uprisings of the Arab spring, Iran rallied its allies and all the forces it had cultivated over previous decades: young Afghan men whose fathers had fought in Iran’s wars, Iraqi militias whose commanders had splintered from larger and older Shia organisations to form the resistance factions, the Houthis in Yemen, and, crucially, Hezbollah, which had played a significant role in building the military capacities of these various forces. While the majority of these forces were Shia, not all pledged religious allegiance to Khamenei. Some shared Tehran’s goal of expelling foreign powers from the region, while others sought Iranian support to fight their local wars – against jihadists, western-backed militias or, in the case of Yemen, the Saudi-Emirati coalition. A few were opportunistic mercenaries who floated across the war-scarred region. Collectively, these forces are known as the “axis of resistance”. The axis suffered its most serious defeat after the 7 October attacks when Israeli jets dropped more than 80 large bunker-buster bombs on a block of residential buildings in the densely populated southern suburbs of Beirut, killing Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, and several senior commanders. “The killing of Sayed Hassan Nasrallah affected the Iraqi resistance factions more than that of Sayed al-Khamenei,” said an insider close to the pro-Iran factions. “Yes, Sayed al-Khamenei is the leader, but Sayed Hassan had a direct appeal to many of the commanders. He and Hezbollah combined fighting prowess with a discourse and a political vision. This is very much lacking for the Iraqi factions.” The insider added: “This is why if you look at their activities on the ground now, you will see it is just a reaction. They don’t have a local Iraqi strategy; they don’t have political depth. They follow events, and once the attacks on Iran stop, they will stop.” Yet the impact of the recent war went far beyond the resistance factions’ drones, he added. The fact that a major Shia leader was killed, followed by assassinations in Iraq and elsewhere, has shaken the country’s streets, especially in the south where massive demonstrations erupted spontaneously after the killing of Khamenei. The US and its air force have been pounding Iraqi cities, sometimes frequently, often continuously, for more than 30 years since that first wave of long-range bombers lit Baghdad’s skies with explosions in the early hours of the Gulf war back in 1991. For Iraqis, then, the images coming from Iran are all too familiar: people walking through streets strewn with debris inspecting the previous day’s destruction, searching for groceries, checking on loved ones; families cowering at home, listening to the not so distant explosions, windows rattling. Mothers weeping over dead children. The anxiety, the fear, the great balls of fire rising into the sky. Even the black acid rain that followed the burning of massive fuel storage depots had its mirror in Iraq. Ghaith Abdul-Ahad has reported on Iraq for the Guardian since the US-led invasion of the country in 2003
Min Aung Hlaing, the military general who plunged Myanmar into conflict and economic chaos when he took power in the 2021 coup has been appointed president, months after widely condemned sham elections. Min Aung Hlaing, who is wanted by the prosecutor of the international criminal court for crimes against humanity against the Rohingya Muslim minority, was voted president by lawmakers on Friday. Myanmar’s parliament is dominated by the pro-military party, which won a landslide in one-sided elections earlier this year. Min Aung Hlaing has long sought the role, say analysts, but for years his ambitions were thwarted by the electoral success of the hugely popular Aung San Suu Kyi. The former de facto leader no longer poses a threat, however. The 80-year-old has been detained since the 2021 coup, when her government was ousted from power. Her party was banned from contesting recent elections, which were held across three phases from December to January. The election, which the military’s proxy Union Solidarity and Development party (USDP) won by a landslide, was widely condemned as a sham that sought to give a veneer of legitimacy to military rule. It is not expected that the changes in leadership will ease the political crisis or the deadly conflict that continues to rage across the country. Min Aung Hlaing was already Myanmar’s acting president, and it is likely he will install loyalists in key positions, said International Crisis Group in recent analysis. “He will not trust anybody [enough] to take orders from [them] – he would want to deliver the orders,” said Yanghee Lee, a former special rapporteur for Myanmar, who added that Min Aung Hlaing is seen as a paranoid, suspicious person. The general, 69, was born into a family from Dawei, in south east of Myanmar. He studied law at university in Yangon, but longed to join the military and on his third attempt was admitted to the Defence Services Academy, the country’s elite institution for training officers. Myanmar’s military has been likened to a state within a state, siloed from the rest of society with its own banks, companies, news outlets and hospitals. It considers itself the protector of Myanmar as a Buddhist Bamar nation– Bamar referring to the majority ethnic group. He was appointed commander-in-chief in 2011, but assumed the role at a time when Myanmar was embarking on a fragile transition to democracy. The military remained extremely powerful during this period, even after Aung San Suu Kyi won a sweeping victory in 2015. Under the military’s model of “disciplined democracy”, it was granted a quarter of parliamentary seats, and the power to appoint key cabinet positions. The uneasy power-sharing arrangement broke down after the 2020 election, which Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD again won by a landslide. Min Aung Hlaing accused her party of widespread voter fraud, without evidence, and seized power on 1 February 2021. The coup triggered mass protests that spiralled into a civil war. Min Aung Hlaing has been accused of presiding over repeated atrocities and human rights abuses. In 2009, while overseeing operations in border areas of the north-east, his troops were accused of driving tens of thousands of ethnic minority people from their homes. Such brutality would be repeated on an even greater scale in violence against the Rohingya Muslim minority in Rakhine state in 2017, which is now the centre of a genocide case at The Hague. Since the coup, UN investigators have accused Min Aung Haling’s regime of indiscriminate airstrikes killing civilians, “mass killings of detainees, dismemberment and desecration of bodies, rape and the deliberate burning of entire villages”, describing such crimes as “a manifestation of an organisational policy”. Myanmar has denied the accusations of genocide, and the military says its post-coup operations are targeted at terrorists it accuses of destabilising the country. In recent months, Min Aung Hlaing had stepped up his international trips, attempting to clamber back from his status as an international pariah. His diplomatic style has been mocked by his critics – particularly a visit to Moscow last year, when, while heaping praise on Vladimir Putin, he said the friendship between Myanmar and Russia had been prophesied by the Buddha thousands of years ago when the Russian president was a “rat king” in a previous life. It is not clear if Putin understood the obscure reference. Richard Horsey, a senior Myanmar adviser to Crisis Group, said the junta leader presented himself as a politician rather than a “soldier’s soldier”, and even in the midst of a post-coup fight was often photographed inspecting infrastructure and factories, rather than visiting the frontlines. “It’s well known that he’s long coveted the presidency,” Horsey added. Min Aung Hlaing is also a deeply superstitious figure and keen to present himself as devoutly religious, added Horsey. He has frequently commissioned and renovated pagodas and religious sites, including a huge Buddha statue in the capital Nay Pyi Taw. “I don’t think he sees that as [being in] contradiction with his role as a brutal leader,” said Horsey. At home, Min Aung Hlaing is unable to travel to large areas of Myanmar that have been seized by opposition groups or are in the midst of fighting. However, with backing from his ally China, the junta chief probably hopes the recent election will allow him to reverse his isolated status abroad and reassure pro-military voices who have criticised his failure to suppress opposition since the coup.
People in Burkina Faso should forget about democracy as it is “not for us”, the military president, Ibrahim Traoré, told the country’s state broadcaster. Traoré took power in a coup in September 2022, toppling another junta that had taken power just nine months earlier. He has since stifled opposition and in January banned political parties outright. A transition to democracy had originally been planned for 2024, but that year the junta extended Traoré’s rule until 2029. “We’re not even talking about elections, first of all … People need to forget about the question of democracy … We must tell the truth, democracy isn’t for us,” Traoré said in an interview on Thursday with the state broadcaster Radiodiffusion Télévision du Burkina (RTB). Democracy was “false”, the 37-year-old said, adding: “Democracy, we kill children. Democracy, we drop bombs, we kill women, we destroy hospitals, we kill civilian population. Is that democracy?” Traoré has won fans across Africa with anti-French and anti-western rhetoric that often invokes the legacy of the revolutionary Burkinabé leader Thomas Sankara. Sankara, a Marxist, was president of Burkina Faso, which he renamed from Upper Volta, from 1983 until his assassination in 1987. However, Traoré has failed to stem a jihadist insurgency that has claimed thousands of lives since 2014 and had displaced 2.1 million people, about 9% of the population, when official data was last released three years ago. More than 1,800 civilians had been killed by the military, allied militias and al-Qaida-linked Jama’at Nusrat al‑Islam wa al‑Muslimin (JNIM) since 2023, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said in a report released on Thursday. The group accused all sides of committing crimes against humanity and war crimes. It alleged the junta and allied militias had ethnically cleansed Fulani civilians that it accused of supporting JNIM, carrying out targeted killings and forcibly displacing communities. In April 2024, HRW accused the military of executing 223 civilians in a day two months earlier. The government denied this and banned the group, along with several international media outlets that had reported it, including the Guardian.