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Middle East crisis live: ships report attacks as Iran closes strait of Hormuz; Trump says deal still possible

The Israeli military killed two UNICEF-contracted truck drivers at a water point in northern Gaza Strip, forcing the UN agency to suspend its operations in the area, UNICEF said. Two other people were also injured in the attack that occurred at the Mansoura water filling point in Gaza City, UNICEF said in a statement. UNICEF said the point is being used multiple times a day to keep providing hundreds of thousands of people in Gaza City with clean water from the Mekorot water supply line. The agency said it suspended onsite activities until security conditions in the area are restored.

Trump and Tehran’s series of mismanaged posts stall progress towards peace

A set of mismanaged and premature media announcements by Donald Trump and Tehran has led to the collapse of progress towards a peace settlement between Iran and the US. The recent missteps ended with Iran saying it would reinstate a complete block on the movement of commercial shipping through the strait of Hormuz and that it would not allow any of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to be exported out of the country. The chain of events started when the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, posted on X on Friday soon after the markets opened in the US. “In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon the passage of all commercial vessels through the strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire [Lebanon ceasefire] on the coordinated route as already announced by the Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep of Iran.” His announcement knocked $12 off the price of a barrel of oil and was welcomed by Pakistan, whose officials had been in Tehran for three days trying to find a way to address Iranian preconditions for holding talks with the US. Araghchi’s post was potentially poorly framed or incomplete, and led to a big backlash, which was made worse by the fall in oil prices, and the news being welcomed and overinterpreted by Trump, who thanked Iran for opening the strait and agreeing to export its stockpile of uranium to the US. Some on Iranian social media even claimed that Araghchi’s post was designed to manipulate the markets. Iranian lawmaker Morteza Mahmoudi said if it wasn’t for wartime conditions, Araghchi should face impeachment over his remarks on X, accusing him of repeated “ill-timed” statements. Within minutes, Tasnim, a news agency close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, described Araghchi’s post as either wrong or incomplete. It said the post was “published without the necessary and sufficient explanations, created various ambiguities regarding the conditions for passage, details and mechanisms of passage, and led to a great deal of criticism”. Hardline press such as Kayhan was still demanding Araghchi withdraw his post when the newspaper hit the streets on Saturday. Even those sympathetic to Araghchi inside Iran, like politician Mahmoud Sadeghi, said the announcement should have been made officially, and not through a post that could be open to misinterpretation. The renewed impasse led to Trump threatening to restart bombing next week after the ceasefire between the two sides expires on Wednesday. It also sets up another potentially dangerous confrontation in the strait, which has so far avoided a direct naval confrontation between the US and Iran. Iran also insisted it told mediators it was unwilling to restart talks with the US in Islamabad on Monday, as had been widely rumoured, because the demands by the US were excessive. Iran’s tough approach reflects the dominance of the IRGC in determining Iranian foreign policy, as well as IRGC’s fears that Araghchi was making premature and unnecessary concessions to Washington. IRGC resentment was compounded by a series of upbeat posts on Truth Social from Trump, which Mohammad Ghalibaf, the speaker of the parliament and effectively leader of the Iranian negotiating team, said contained many lies. Later it was stressed that Araghchi had meant the strait was open only to ships authorised by the IRGC Navy and using permitted designated routes after paying the required tolls. The foreign ministry spokesperson underlined this point in an official interview, adding that no discussions had been had with the US about the future of Iran’s stockpile of uranium. Ghalibaf’s post ostensibly attacking Trump stressed that whether the strait was open or closed would be determined by the military and not by social media posts. Trump’s desperation for the war to end has seen him trying to speed through a process that he does not fully control, and which requires agreement from Tehran. Iran is still convinced that the strait remains its winning card and that time is on its side, so there is no rush for Iran to return to the talks. Pakistan for its part is trying to put together a string of confidence-building measures, which started with Trump applying pressure on the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon. That was supposed to start a chain of confidence-building events, including the opening of the strait and the possible release of a first tranche of frozen Iranian assets. But Trump’s impatience led him to assume and pronounce too much, including continuing to insist that the blockade of Iran’s ports by the US Navy would continue. With Tehran in a defiant mood, Trump’s reaffirmation of the blockade by Saturday morning had become reason enough for Iran to announce that even the conditional passage of ships was being ended only 24 hours after the process had started. Iran claimed it was already using threats to force back Indian oil tankers. Warnings are also being issued by Tehran that it is close to relaunching missile attacks on Israel due to the breaches of the ceasefire in Lebanon. There is also the deeper problem that Iran believes it has a legal and moral right to seize control of the strait permanently. Reza Nasri, an Iranian lawyer, warned on Saturday: “Under international law, an international strait earns its special status of ‘transit passage’ from its role as a neutral passage connecting two open seas or exclusive economic zones used for peaceful international navigation. “When one side of this passage becomes a permanent military platform for the destruction of the opposing coastal state, that waterway no longer functions as a ‘normal’ international strait but rather becomes an extension of a hostile military zone.”

Iran closes strait of Hormuz again ‘until US lifts blockade’

Iranian officials say they have reversed the reopening of the strait of Hormuz and reimposed restrictions on the vital shipping lane after the US said it would not end its blockade of Iranian ports. A UK maritime agency reported that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ships had fired at a tanker as it attempted to pass through the strait on Saturday. Reuters reported an Indian-flagged vessel carrying crude oil had also been attacked while in the waterway. Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya joint military command said on Saturday that Tehran had restored the strait to its “previous status” and was now “under strict management and control by the armed forces”. Iran said the restrictions would remain if Washington did not “ensure full freedom of navigation for vessels travelling from Iran to destinations and from destinations to Iran”. This was reiterated by the country’s deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, and the IRGC’s navy command. Speaking to journalists on the sidelines of an annual Turkish diplomatic forum in Antalya, Khatibzadeh said the US “cannot impose their will to do a siege over Iran, while Iran, with good intention, is trying to facilitate safe passage through the strait of Hormuz”. In a post on X, the IRGC’s navy command wrote: “As long as the movement of vessels from Iran and to Iran is under threat, the status of the strait of Hormuz will remain as it was previously. Any breach of commitments by the United States will receive an appropriate response.” Iran officially closed the strait on 4 March in response to US-Israeli airstrikes on the country, and declared it back open on Friday after a 10-day ceasefire deal was agreed between Israel and Lebanon, as part of wider negotiations to achieve peace in the region. The UK’s Maritime Trade Operations Centre said it had received a report from a tanker that had been approached and then fired on by “two IRGC gunboats” 20 nautical miles north-east of Oman. The captain said there had been no radio warning beforehand. The agency added that the tanker and crew were reported safe, and authorities were investigating the incident. The announcement of Iran’s U-turn came the day after Donald Trump said the US blockade would “remain in full force” until a permanent peace deal with Tehran was reached. The US president also said that the temporary ceasefire with Iran, brokered by Pakistan and due to expire on Wednesday, may not be extended. US and Iranian delegations are expected to hold a second round of peace talks, although the timing is yet to be confirmed. Agence France-Presse reported that the Egyptian foreign minister said on Saturday there were hopes for a deal “in the coming days”. “We hope to do so [reach an agreement] in the coming days,” Badr Abdelatty said, adding: “Not only us in the region, but the whole world is suffering from the continuation of this war”. Before Iran’s reversal, at least eight oil and gas tankers had passed through the strait in the brief window when it was open early on Saturday, according to maritime tracking data. About 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the narrow strait, which has become a focal point of the US-Israeli war on Iran. Its closure has driven up energy prices around the world.

‘We can’t wait’: Venice already seeking floods plan B five years after barriers’ launch

The Arsenale, the colossal shipyard that was the engine of the Venetian Republic’s domination for seven centuries, remains the nucleus of the city’s control over the water. Its northern section is made up of cavernous brick warehouses called capannoni, which in the 16th century could produce a warship a day through a rigorously ordered assembly line. Now, one of them houses the operations centre of the Mose, the sprawling flood defence system that protects the city. The name stands for modulo sperimentale elettromeccanico (experimental electromechanic module) and is a nod to the biblical character who parted the seas. For Venetians who have seen their city devastated by storm surges they call acque alte, there is something miraculous about it: the massive, luridly coloured flood barriers sunk into the seabed at three inlets between the lagoon and the Adriatic have saved Venice from potential flooding 154 times since they were inaugurated in 2020. But, despite the Mose having been in operation for only five years, city authorities are already looking for a plan B. Rising sea levels due to the climate crisis mean engineers are forced to raise the flood barriers more frequently, which damages the lagoon’s ecosystem. An alarming acceleration in sea level rise – an estimated extra metre by the end of the century – represents a “death knell for the city”, says Andrea Rinaldo, the head of the scientific committee of the newly appointed Lagoon Authority, the organisation that manages the Mose and is now also charged with working out what could succeed it. “With a metre more, you would have to close the Mose barriers on average 200 times a year, which means it’s practically always closed,” Rinaldo says. “When this happens, the lagoon loses its nature of being a transitional environment. It would become a filthy pond.” The tides create a natural exchange of water and sediment between the Venice lagoon and the Adriatic. The raised flood barriers block the flow of water, which encourages an excess growth of algae. When the algae die, they decompose, sucking out all the oxygen in the water and killing off fish and other marine flora. Rinaldo insists the Mose is not poorly designed. It was envisioned as a project for the future, but that future came far sooner than its engineers expected. He is urging immediate action. “You won’t have a lagoon. You won’t have a city. And all of this could happen in a timeframe that is comparable with the time that we had to design and build the Mose. We can’t wait.” It took five decades for the Mose to be designed and brought into operation, after Venice suffered the worst flood in its history on 4 November 1966. The idea for flood barriers was fleshed out in the 1970s and the module was built in the 1980s, but bureaucracy and concerns over its environmental impact delayed its implementation. In 2014, the then mayor of Venice, Giorgio Orsoni, was arrested on suspicion of corruption. His arrest tugged on a thread that revealed a network of cronyism and bribery that had swelled the cost of the project by millions of euros. Many Venetians were initially against the Mose because of its ballooning budget, its impact on the lagoon, and a certain cynicism that it would ever work. But then it did – and Venice has stayed dry ever since. The inside of the Mose operations centre in the northern Arsenale looks like a Bond villain’s hideout, or perhaps a Silicon Valley tech startup: glass staircases, gleaming white walls and offices hidden in frosted Perspex cubes. The control room has the feel of a war room with its curving wall of screens, which display a panoply of meteorological conditions that could combine to create a storm surge. One screen shows a satellite image of Venice, boats appearing as flecks of white spittle in the grey lagoon. Giovanni Zarotti, the Mose technical director, explains that the tides never go unmonitored. The control room even has an exact replica elsewhere in the Arsenale complex, in case of a power cut or another technical issue. It is a well-oiled operation but mistakes still happen. Zarotti says the decision is made to close the barriers three hours before the water level is expected to reach the height that would cause flooding. “We’re relying on God, statistically speaking. We have a margin of error of 10cm. If we forecast 110cm and order the closure, there could be a sudden drop in wind and the water only rises 98cm,” he says. Activating the Mose has a significant economic impact, not only because closing the barriers costs the city upwards of €200,000 (£175,000) each time, but also because it puts a halt to maritime traffic going through the Malamocco inlet on its way to the Marghera port. During the Venice carnival this year, the barriers were raised 26 times in just three weeks, costing the city more than €5m. Zarotti says the team is experimenting with raising the barriers at each inlet consecutively, to stagger the impact, and is considering raising the activation level to 130cm. He admits, however, that Venetians have grown accustomed to the Mose and are far less tolerant of even light flooding. The last devastating acqua alta the city experienced was in 2019, when the city was engulfed by 187cm of water, flooding 80% of the city. “Venetians now take the Mose for granted,” he says. “Many don’t even own waders any more. Imagine, if you’re six years old, you’ve never heard the sound of flood sirens.” What the next project will be still needs to be defined. Rinaldo is enthusiastic about the intellectual possibilities of the challenge at hand. He plans to put out a global call for ideas from leading thinkers across a variety of different disciplines, from art and economics to history and science. Each group of experts would be given a grant and a year to devise a proposal, which would then be assessed by a scientific advisory board. The chosen projects would then be given to city authorities to put into action. “Venice is a test bed for how we cope with these systems in the future,” he says, adding that it is a problem that can’t be solved by science and engineering alone. He believes it is vital the city is entirely reimagined, in particular redirecting Venice’s economy away from its reliance on tourism, which is just as much a threat to the city as rising waters. Otherwise, what he calls a jewel of artistic heritage would be lost. He lets out a laugh. “Over my dead body!”

Hungary’s incoming PM seeks Polish help to renew EU relations

The Hungarian election winner, Péter Magyar, is eyeing a special relationship with Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk to draw on the neighbouring country’s experience of repairing relations with the EU after years of illiberal rule. Since 1989, the two countries have seemingly shared parallels in their paths. Now the two centre-right, pro-European leaders preside over the tricky task of restoring the rule of law and improving state institutions after years of democratic backsliding and clashes with the EU. The leaders spoke on election night, with a jubilant Tusk calling Magyar from Korea: “I’m so happy. I think I am even happier than you, you know?” Tusk told reporters the next morning: “First Warsaw, then Bucharest, Chișinău, and now Budapest. This part of Europe is showing that we are not condemned to corrupt and authoritarian rule.” Visibly relieved, he added: “A weight has been lifted off my shoulders, because I was worried until the very end.” Magyar swiftly repaid the compliments. Speaking at a press conference with Hungarian flags flanked by EU flags, he spoke about a “special relationship” with Poland, and picked Warsaw for his first foreign trip in office. He also confirmed plans to move quickly against two former Polish ministers hiding in Budapest from prosecution over alleged abuses of power, saying they should not “go and buy furniture in Ikea, because they are not staying long”. The ministers had served in Poland’s rightwing Law and Justice (PiS) government, which lost power to Tusk’s Civic Coalition in 2023. On Friday, it emerged the new parliament could be inaugurated and Magyar sworn in on 9 May, which is celebrated by the EU as “Europe Day”. The partnership between the two leaders could play a pivotal role in bringing Budapest back to the main fold of European politics. Once Magyar replaces the outgoing leader, Viktor Orbán, at the European Council, Tusk will become the most experienced leader at the table. His support and counsel could prove helpful in talks with the bloc. On Friday, EU officials held their first informal talks with the incoming administration in Budapest. Brussels will want Magyar to drop Hungary’s block on a €90bn loan to Ukraine and to agree new sanctions against Russia as an early signal of political realignment. Hungary will also be expected to meet several conditions related to its institutions, judiciary system, checks on corruption, asylum laws and academic freedoms. Behind the scenes, Polish and Hungarian officials are already talking about how Poland’s recent efforts to reverse years of illiberal rule could apply to Hungary. In 2023, the Civic Coalition ousted the rightwing populist PiS, and managed to successfully unlock billions in frozen EU funds. The informal talks, launched in early 2026, months before the election, were “essentially about salvaging as much as possible of what would be otherwise lost under Orbán”, said one senior Polish official involved in the process. But the clock is ticking as Hungary will have to hit its “super milestones” by the end of August to access the first tranche of €10.4bn. About €2.12bn has already been lost permanently. The Polish officials, granted anonymity to talk about the confidential process, said they hoped swift progress could be made, but told their Hungarian partners “promises will not be enough; they will have to actually change things - and quickly”. One source said: “There is always a political element to these talks, but there is no way around the fact that their paperwork will need to be in order.” Magyar’s landslide win and constitutional two-thirds majority in the parliament should make the process smoother than in Poland, where changes were thwarted by looming veto power of opposition presidents, but will still “require work 24/7 to get it done on time,” they said. While the Hungarian president does not hold similarly far-reaching prerogatives, Magyar has already urged Tamás Sulyok, a close Orbán ally, to resign or face being removed from office as he does not wish to take risks and wants a symbolic break from the regime. Magyar’s pledge to join the European public prosecutor’s office and investigate the corruption and fraud of Orbán’s 16 years in power is also seen as a key element of the changes. Poland drafted its application to join the EPPO on the first day of new government. Adam Bodnar, Poland’s justice minister until July last year, said the fact talks were taking place before Magyar’s government was sworn in was not surprising. “You don’t really wait for day one of the government,” he told the Guardian at his Warsaw office. “We had some relations with the commission essentially for two weeks before the cabinet was formed, so I bet that Magyar’s people are already on the line … wondering how this can be done.” With the two-third majority, “when they present an action plan, they will be actually able deliver on all of it. We could not … and that is why we are left to look for sometimes quite acrobatic solutions.” But some of Poland’s problems could still be relevant to Hungary as officials sought to overhaul systems rife with illiberalism, Bodnar said. “You can reform institutions, put in new judges, or hold competitions for top jobs, but in the end there still will be people who have been part of the system for these 16 years and cannot be replaced overnight,” he said. “So there is always a question of what effect [the Orbán era] will have on the mentality of state officials, prosecutors and judges.”

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?

Sixteen bets made $100,000 accurately predicting the timing of the US airstrikes against Iran on 27 February. Later, a single user would make over $550,000 after betting that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would topple, just moments before his assassination by Israeli forces. On 7 April, right before Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran, traders bet $950m that oil prices would come down. They did. These bets and other well-timed wagers accurately predicted the precise timing of major developments in the US-Israel war with Iran, creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers and experts over potential insider trading. Betting – once largely siloed to sporting events – has now spread to include contracts on news events where insider information could give some traders an advantage. The proliferation of online betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi has allowed bets on virtually any news event. It’s also easier than ever to buy commodity derivatives like oil futures, where traders gamble on what the price of oil will be in the future. Leaders of some US federal agencies and some members of Congress said they want to crack down on suspicious trading taking place across different marketplaces, but it’s unclear how much leeway regulators will make. “Is the problem that we don’t have legislation or that we don’t have enforcement capabilities?” said Joshua Mitts, a law professor at Columbia University. “To have a law that can’t really be enforced effectively given the technological limitations, it’s sort of putting the cart before the horse.” Perfect timing On the night of 27 February, the day before the US and Israel would carry out strikes on Iran, an unusual influx of about 150 accounts on Polymarket placed bets that the US would strike Iran the next day. A New York Times analysis found the bets totaled $855,000, with 16 accounts pocketing more than $100,000 each. Soon after, a single anonymous Polymarket user, under an account named “Magamyman”, made over $553,000 after betting that Khamenei would be “removed” from power just moments before he was killed by an Israeli airstrike, according to a complaint filed to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency that regulates futures markets, by Public Citizen, a consumer advocacy group. The complaint also cites a crypto-analytics firm that identified six “suspected insiders” who made a total of $1.2m on Polymarket after Khamenei was killed. The well-timed surge of wagers were seen again on 7 April, when at least 50 Polymarket accounts placed bets that the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire hours before Trump would announce it on a Truth Social post. Earlier, the president had said “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not open the strait of Hormuz. But traders weren’t just active on Polymarket: there were similar surges of oil futures trading activity just hours before Trump announced updates to the conflict that would lower oil prices. On 23 March, traders placed $580m in bets on the oil futures market just 15 minutes before Trump said on social media that the US was having “productive” talks with Iran, according to the Financial Times. The traders made a windfall after Trump’s comments triggered a sell-off in the oil markets that made oil prices plummet. The same thing happened again on 7 April, this time when traders spent $950m on oil futures, betting that the price of oil would fall just hours before the ceasefire with Iran was announced. “We can’t say from the outset whether any of these trades were illegal. Any one of them could be lucky, and any one of them could be based on lawful information,” said Andrew Verstein, a law professor at the University of California at Los Angeles. “But many of them bear the hallmarks of suspicious trades that would naturally warrant investigation.” ‘A wild west’ For those who closely follow trading patterns, the rush of activity that happened before these events seem too big to simply be bets hedging on luck. “Not only the timing, but the amount of these bets makes it look very likely that someone had insider knowledge … and placed very, very substantial bets on it,” said Craig Holman, a government affairs lobbyist for Public Citizen who filed the group’s complaint to the CFTC. Holman said he is skeptical about how bold the CFTC will be in its investigations given its current structure under the Trump administration. The commission typically has five bipartisan members that are appointed by the president. Now the CFTC has one sole commissioner – Michael Selig, who Trump appointed at the end of 2025 and has positioned himself as friendly toward prediction markets. Over the last few months, the CFTC has been roiled in fights with state legislatures who argue that regulation of these online betting marketplaces belong to the states. Kalshi, Polymarket’s competitor, was temporarily banned in Nevada after the state sued the company for offering contacts in the state without a gambling license. Arizona meanwhile filed criminal charges against the company for allowing people to place bets on elections. In both cases, Kalshi denied any wrongdoing and has argued that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over online prediction markets. “It’s a wild west phase, when we’re talking about the prediction market industry, and now it’s spilled over into the stock market as well.” Anonymous sources told Reuters and Bloomberg that the CFTC launched an investigation into the oil futures trades that were placed on 27 March and 7 April, though the agency has not publicly announced it is conducting an investigation. Speaking to Congress this week, Selig said that the agency is prepared to go after those who are suspected of insider trading, warning “we will find you and you will face the full force of the law”, but said that the commission would not issue any new regulations until it has five seated commissioners. Polymarket did not respond to request for comment. In a statement, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said “federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit”. “Any implication that administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting,” Ingle said. “The CFTC will always uphold its duty to monitor fraud, manipulation and illicit activity daily.” Risky bets Federal law prohibits government employees, including those working for Congress or the White House, from using non-public information for personal profit. In late March, a bipartisan group of representatives introduced a bill that would ban members of Congress and senior staff within the federal government from participating in prediction market contracts related to political events or policy decisions. But experts warn that insider trading law is complicated, and the new technology that makes it easier to place bets online leaves a complicated paper trail that can be hard to follow. Historically, insider trading takes place when a person uses exclusive information about a company to buy or sell stocks right before information becomes public. These types of illegal trades are regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which regulates the stock exchanges. Insider futures trading could be seen as a subset of this typical insider trading, but the territory is new. “The trick is that there are essentially no clean cases of people getting in trouble for commodity futures insider trading,” Verstein said. “The law there is just not well developed.” In a paper published last month, Mitts, the Columbia law professor, and other researchers screened more than 200,000 “suspicious wallet-market pairs” between February 2024 and February 2026 and found that traders in this group achieved a nearly 70% win rate, making $143m in well-timed bets tied to everything from the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to Taylor Swift’s engagement to Travis Kelce. The paper notes that informed traders face fewer legal constraints by trading on platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi because these markets still operate in a legal gray area. “The challenge here is that this trading is occurring through the blockchain or other anonymized means, so it is going to be quite difficult for a regulator enforcement authority or prosecutor to determine the identity of the trader,” Mitts said. “They would also have to prove the trader traded on the basis of information that had been wrongly misappropriated.” But the stakes are high. Insider trading involving classified military information can lead to distrust of both markets and governments. “Unlike corporate insider trading, there’s a lot of ways for the government to make itself be correct. You can just make the war that would occur, and that’s concerning because then the real economy is being distorted,” Verstein said. “Real decisions, including perhaps financial decisions, are being distorted by financial bets.”

Norwegian politicians hope Epstein files inquiry will restore faith in democracy

The Epstein files have shaken Norway’s faith in democracy, the head of the Norwegian parliament’s oversight committee has said, as a sprawling investigation into the connections between its foreign office and the late sex offender gets under way. An independent commission to look into information brought to light by the Jeffrey Epstein documents released by the US Department of Justice was launched on Wednesday after the Norwegian parliament voted unanimously last month for it to be set up. The commission has been instructed to go back more than 30 years, to include the lead-up to the 1993-95 Oslo accords, examining relationships between Epstein and his network and current or former Norwegian politicians and civil servants. The commission will look at whether these relationships had any “consequences for Norwegian interests and security”. It is also mandated to look at Norwegian campaigning for leadership positions in international organisations and the allocation of development aid and other public funding to them. The release of the Epstein files in January sent shockwaves through Norway after several figures across the foreign office and royal family were named in them. Per-Willy Amundsen, the chair of the standing committee on scrutiny and constitutional affairs in parliament, which appointed the independent investigation into the Epstein files, said Norwegians typically saw themselves as “an open and democratic and well- functioning society without corruption”. But the Epstein files had damaged trust in politicians in the eyes of most people, he added. “So in a sense it has struck us very hard. And therefore we are completely dependent on having to try to build that trust again,” he said. “And therefore it is very important to have a completely independent commission that gets very free hands, protection by law, to find the facts and present them to the Storting [parliament].” Several police investigations are already under way, and the commission will pass on any relevant information they discover to the police. Amundsen, who is a member of the far-right Progress party (Fremskrittspartiet), said: “It is very central people in the Norwegian political establishment [who are named in the Epstein files] and we have to find out how deep this runs. And also find all the facts so that people can rebuild their trust in Norwegian institutions.” There are fears the Epstein files could have an impact on Norway’s international reputation as a peace broker and advocate of peace. “This is very much something that should worry, and worries many, in Norway,” said Amundsen. “We have had this reputation internationally and this is a case that may change that view of Norway. But also, therefore, it is very important to find the facts and pursue the truth, to get that trust in the people, but also in foreign relations.” The commission will not, however, be looking into crown princess Mette-Marit’s involvement with Epstein, which the constitution stipulates is not a matter for parliament. But, Amundsen said, their findings may well have political ramifications, particularly for the ruling Labour party. “They have been the party that has been most in government since the last world war, they have a broad network of people in diplomacy and have been ruling the ministry of foreign affairs for very many years,” he added. Speaking last month, the Labour prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, said the Epstein files had clearly shown “it is possible to buy and abuse influence if you are rich enough”. Støre said that connections between Norwegians in “trusted and central positions” had been “proven” in the Epstein files, adding: “Reasonable questions have been raised about whether the links are in violation of the law and many aspects of society’s ethical regulations. “It is crucial that these circumstances and the questions they raise are clarified, and that the facts are brought to the table.”

As Meloni’s hold over Italy weakens, a progressive challenger gathers momentum

It has been a turbulent month in Italian politics. A failed referendum on a judicial overhaul pierced prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s aura of invincibility, triggering government resignations and leaving her scrambling to restore credibility. At the same time, her once special relationship with Donald Trump has frayed after the US president publicly scolded her this week for criticising his broadside against Pope Leo and for not supporting the US-Israeli war on Iran. As the drama played out in Rome, a very different scene was taking shape in the northern Italian city of Genoa. More than 20,000 people filled the central Piazza Matteotti last weekend for a free performance by the award-winning Belgian techno DJ Charlotte de Witte. It was more than just a party. Dancing on stage with De Witte was Genoa’s sunglasses-clad mayor, Silvia Salis, a former Olympic hammer thrower widely mooted as a plausible challenger to Meloni in the next general election. Footage of the event rapidly circulated online, amplifying Salis’s profile. “She’s been a breath of fresh air,” said Giulia Bianchi, a business consultant from Genoa. “She’s especially well liked for injecting some youthful energy into a dormant and demographically old city.” Salis, 40, was elected mayor of Genoa less than a year ago, clinching a key victory for the opposition in the sprawling port city, which had previously been under rightwing rule for eight years. A progressive unaffiliated to any party, she held a senior role at Italy’s Olympic Committee before being asked to stand for mayor by an alliance of leftwing and centrist forces. Her success immediately positioned her as a potential unifier at national level. Although the opposition has been invigorated by Meloni’s referendum setback, which many saw as a broad rejection of her government, it remains fragmented and has no clear leader to credibly take on the prime minister in the next election, which is due to take place before October 2027. Elly Schlein, who heads the Democratic party, the biggest opposition party, and Giuseppe Conte, the former prime minister who leads the Five Star Movement, are expected to fight it out in primaries once the alliance has agreed to a programme. But neither of them hold much appeal among Italian voters as potential prime ministers. Salis, who competed in two Olympics and has the five-circle logo tattooed on her neck, had promised to complete her mandate as mayor, but in a recent interview with Bloomberg appeared open to entering the playing field. “It’s clear I can’t escape this national attention, I can’t dodge the questions. It’s an interesting thing, it flatters me,” she said. Although she said she would not take part in any primaries, she would contemplate leading the opposition if asked. “In the face of a unifying request I can’t say I wouldn’t even consider it. That’d be lying.” The techno party didn’t happen by chance. Genoa’s council footed the bill as part of Salis’s strategy to use public space for free events to promote social inclusion and urban renewal, especially for younger residents. The party was also symbolic, contrasting with Meloni’s “anti-rave” decree, which clamped down on unauthorised gatherings in one of the first laws enacted by her government after coming to power in October 2022. Since becoming mayor, Salis’s other priorities have included revitalising the economy of the once-powerful maritime republic, improving public transport and combating crime. Salis raised her profile through her participation in protests last autumn against the war in Gaza, and by supporting port workers who blocked shipments of weapons destined for Israel. “She just really put herself out there, in stark comparison with Meloni, who never expressed a position one way or another,” said Bianchi. “I find her really refreshing and promising.” Davide Ghiglione, a Genoa-born journalist, said Salis has strong appeal mainly because she is making young people a priority. “Genoa is a city with one of the oldest populations in Europe and previous administrations have been accused of forgetting young people.” “She’s young, she’s dynamic,” said Ghiglione. “She didn’t come from a political background, but she’s an excellent communicator and uses social media well.” Salis is also admired for the way she has handled sexist comments and criticism, including those over her dancing in Manolo Blahnik heels, to which she responded by saying she supports leftwing values but just wants to dress well. Bianchi said taking aim at Salis for her shoes was clearly a sign of desperation from those trying to eclipse her rising star. “She wears a pair of Blahniks – is that the best they can do? How pathetic.”