Thursday briefing: What we can learn from the Swiss rejection of a population cap
Good morning. Polling stations have just opened in Makerfield, where byelection voters will make a decision that – whatever the result – will have long-term, national consequences. Results are expected in the early hours, and we’ll have them in full, along with much more, in your inboxes tomorrow morning. Today we turn to another vote, which, much like certain parts of the campaign in Makerfield, centred on immigration. Swiss progressives breathed a collective sigh of relief on Sunday night, after voters rejected a divisive referendum. The far-right proposal, backed by Switzerland’s biggest parliamentary party, the Swiss People’s party (SVP), wanted to limit the country’s permanent population to 10 million until 2050. It would have made Switzerland the first country to implement a population cap. The Swiss electorate had other ideas. After a campaign in which the margins looked incredibly tight, final figures show the initiative was defeated by a more comfortable 55% to 45%. By most metrics, Switzerland is one of the world’s most prosperous, happy and healthy nations. Nonetheless, this debate rages on. For today’s First Edition, I discussed the vote with Joseph de Weck, an associate fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, to see what lessons there are to take from the defeat of this populist panacea. But first, this morning’s headlines. Five big stories Middle East | Donald Trump has signed a 14-point agreement with Iran, claiming it delivered a “major win” for the United States – even as it made significant political and financial concessions to Iran to reopen the strait of Hormuz and prevent a “worldwide depression”. UK news | British officials believe Russia will try to retaliate for the Royal Marines’ seizure of the oil tanker Smyrtos, prompting UK shipowners to exercise greater vigilance until tensions with Moscow ease. Health | Women who received an HPV vaccine in early adolescence have virtually zero risk of dying from cervical cancer before the age of 30, according to a groundbreaking study, but falling vaccination rates could see a rise in avoidable deaths. UK economy | Brexit has depressed UK exports to the EU by 12%, and rejoining the customs union would undo only a fraction of the damage, research shared with the Guardian shows. Science | Decriminalising the possession of cannabis or strictly regulating access to the drug do not appear to drive up usage, but when the drug is sold commercially the number of users increases and more mental health problems are seen, a review has found. In depth: ‘There’s a mentality of Switzerland as this calm fortress that is being stormed’
Anti-immigration sentiments have been pervasive in Switzerland for decades. “It’s a small country, and there is constant anxiety about being ‘taken over’ by foreigners,” says de Weck. “It’s similar to the ‘great replacement theory’ being discussed in other European countries. But the Swiss attitude predates this. There’s a mentality of Switzerland as a refuge, and that this picture-perfect, clean and calm fortress is being stormed. That paradise could be lost.” Immigration in Switzerland is relatively high. The country’s population has jumped from 6.7 million in 1990 to approximately nine million today. According to government figures, over a quarter of residents weren’t born in the country – one of the highest levels in Europe. In Switzerland, a referendum can be forced if 100,000 people back an initiative within 18 months. These then need a double majority to pass: nationally, 50% of voters need to vote yes, as must the majority of voters in at least half of Switzerland’s 26 semi-sovereign states (called cantons). As a result, immigration policy is a near constant question in the country. “The Swiss have voted on immigration perhaps 20 times in the past 60 years, from different angles,” says de Weck. “These votes are mostly launched by the far-right SVP, the biggest in parliament.” Only one such vote has passed, the “against mass immigration” initiative in 2014, which led to minor reforms. Comparisons have been made between this year’s vote and an infamous 1970 referendum. Known as the Schwarzenbach initiative, de Weck says “it would have limited the percentage of foreign-born people living in Switzerland to 10%. If accepted, over 300,000 foreigners would have been expelled.” Voters narrowly rejected it, which “gave the far right a theme to expand on. It’s no great surprise we had Sunday’s vote – it’s almost a Swiss tradition.” “That’s important to understand about Switzerland,” says de Weck. “We vote again and again on the same issues. This doesn’t mean we disrespect democracy. Votes are like signals or pivots – the population tells Berne to pivot a bit. And if they go too far, we tell them. Since everyone can launch initiatives, we do so regularly.” *** Reframing the debate If current trends continue, Switzerland’s population is projected to hit 10 million by 2040 or 2041. Capping it there would be entirely arbitrary, de Weck believes. “I’m approaching 40 – we grew up learning that Switzerland is a country of 7 million. Psychologically, it’s a shift to go into double digits.” While plenty of nations limit immigration, no country has ever voted explicitly to cap its population. If the vote had passed, once the population hit 9.5 million, restrictions on family reunification, asylum and residency permits would have been expected, as would Switzerland looking to leave the Schengen area. Opting for a ceiling in the referendum that required no immediate action was tactical. “They didn’t want to scare voters into saying the stop is tomorrow,” says de Weck. “The relationship with the EU would have to be renegotiated imminently – and nobody wants a Brexit mess. Presented as a safeguard measure for the future, they hoped it would feel less radical to voters in the centre.” Its far-right proponents adjusted their framing, too. “The SVP labelled it the ‘sustainability initiative’, trying to couch this vote in that language: infrastructure being strained; the environment being damaged – it’s nonsense. This party is pushing for super-low corporate tax rates, and is pro fossil fuels. “Polling in the run-up to the vote showed left-wing voters weren’t tempted by this. (In 2023, voters backed a commitment to net zero with a sizeable majority.) It shows how far-right parties will constantly adapt their anti-immigrant rhetoric.” Progressive attempts to appease the right on immigration, de Weck suggests, only leads to the goalposts moving – something Britons may recognise in how the debate has shifted even further rightwards since the Brexit result, and recent falling immigration figures. *** Moving goalposts Despite the defeat, a large chunk of the Swiss electorate still backed the radical, anti-immigration measure. But in global quality of life rankings, Switzerland regularly comes out close to the top. Its population has one of the highest levels of current life satisfaction in Europe. In the OECD’s Better Life Index, Switzerland outperforms the average on everything from education and life expectancy to disposable income. Financial stability and success, even if welcome, is clearly not the simple salve to anti-immigration sentiment that some on the left may hope. “The discourse was therefore about immigration’s secondary effects. Trains being full, traffic being bad. They invented the term dichtestress, meaning ‘density stress’: the strain a growing population puts on infrastructure. And then the sense of feeling at home: walking down the street and hearing so many foreign languages.” Analysis shows that voters in urban areas, with higher levels of immigration, rejected the referendum in the greatest numbers. As the results were announced, the SVP president, Marcel Dettling, lamented that “cities simply wipe the country out”. This, de Weck argues, is significant. “As always, regions with the fewer immigrants voted in favour.” Areas where rents are lower; public services are less pressured. “It’s evidence that those who support these initiatives do so because of their opinion on foreigners, rather than societal strains they’re not even personally experiencing.” It is a pattern we see repeated in much of the western world. *** There is another way Britain’s Labour government has taken a hardline approach to immigration since being elected in 2024. Potential Makerfield MP (and challenger to the prime minister), Andy Burnham, has backed these policies. The progressive approach in Switzerland, explains de Weck, is different. “The left is making a positive case for immigration here,” he says. “It is unafraid of saying Switzerland is a success story because of immigrants. The Swiss left doesn’t have the same issue as the German or British left in moving towards the right on immigration. “Immigration has been high compared to other European countries, but Switzerland is highly successful and wealthy because of this globalisation. It created a stable economic climate that has attracted foreign innovators.” The economy is strong. Unemployment is low. Wages are high. “Life here is pretty good,” says de Weck. “But that doesn’t mean the far right don’t push anti-immigrant rhetoric. It’s a lesson to progressives: even in a country where you’ve solved most economic and social issues” – or, where immigration is predominantly from within western Europe – “a far-right party can still prove successful.” That’s not to deny challenges facing residents. Housing came up a lot in this referendum, de Weck says. Average house prices have more than doubled in the past two decades. Statistics show that while rent and salaries have increased, low-income earners have been left worse off. “There is an issue: a lack of building, the financial sector buying up properties for investments and immigration pushing up demand,” says de Weck. But instead of blaming migrants, progressives, who govern most cities in Switzerland, are looking for solutions. In Zurich, for example, the city government has budgeted £560m to purchase properties in 2026, bringing more housing into public ownership. “There is more to be done,” says de Weck, “and this stuff takes time. But in Switzerland, the left has understood you need to take action.” These results, he says, are proof. “The Swiss have resisted the hubris of nationalism and xenophobia. And for now at least, immigration doesn’t need to absorb even more of our political capital.” What else we’ve been reading
Russia caused major damage to Kyiv’s Pechersk Lavra monastery this week. These striking images of this Unesco world heritage site before the deadly air raid really capture its beauty. Michael Judith Kerr, beloved author of The Tiger Who Came to Tea and When Hitler Stole Pink Rabbit, was not the only talent in her family. Now music composed by her mother, Julia, whose musical career was cut short by the Nazis, has been re-discovered in German archives. Libby This moving, personal and persuasive column by 14-year-old trans athlete Lina Haaga should give us all pause for thought: “No child, transgender or cisgender, should be forced to endure the cruelty of uninformed adults.” Michael World Cup 2026
On the pitch England v Croatia | Captain Harry Kane struck twice in a spluttering first half before goals from Jude Bellingham and Marcus Rashford sealed a stylish win for England in Dallas. Ghana v Panama | A stoppage time goal from Caleb Yirenkyi gave Ghana a 1-0 win over Panama as they joined England at the top of Group L. And the rest … | Newcastle striker Yoane Wissa became the first DR Congo player to score at a World Cup to force a draw against Portugal, while in Mexico City, Colombia managed to squeeze past dogged Uzbekistan, although the 3-1 scoreline didn’t fully reflect the pattern of the Group K match. Off the pitch Mexico | A protest is set to be held before the game between Mexico and South Korea in Guadalajara, against World Cup sponsor Hyundai’s business dealings with the South American mining company Ternium. Ghana | The Black Stars’ football odyssey has been a topsy-turvy ride due to managerial instability, Thomas Partey’s visa issues and loss of their most influential player, Mohammed Kudus, to injury. Social media | Every World Cup sees the dawn of new stars, and social media is increasing that effect as previously unknown players have gained millions of social media followers thanks to the attention of tournament Today’s Fixtures • Czechia v South Africa, 5pm BST on BBC • Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina, 8pm BST on ITV • Canada v Qatar, 11pm BST on ITV • Mexico v South Korea, 2am BST on BBC The front pages
“Team Burnham talk ministers out of resigning to avoid chaos”, is the Guardian’s front page today. The Times leads with “Change is coming, says Burnham in snub to PM”, the i Paper has “D-Day for PM as Makerfield voters shape future of UK”, and the Mail’s headline is “Miliband set to trigger cabinet coup”. Metro writes “Starmer’s bye-bye election?”. Elsewhere, the Telegraph has “England flags face ban by council”, the FT says “Warsh era begins at Fed with ditching of bias towards lower borrowing costs”, and the Sun, on the World Cup, has “Texas Kane score massacre”. Today in Focus: The Latest
Why did Russia warship fire warning shots in the Channel? Keir Starmer has called the firing of warning shots by a Russian warship at a British yacht sailing across the Channel on Tuesday “deeply concerning and reckless”. Russia’s defence ministry said the yacht was on a ‘dangerous course’ and several attempts were made to contact it – a claim disputed by the retired couple onboard the 40ft yacht. Nosheen Iqbal speaks to the Guardian’s defence and security editor, Dan Sabbagh – watch the full episode here. Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron
The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
In two decades’ time, London could be encircled by willow, hornbeam and hazelnut trees, all thanks to a group of volunteers who are planting a tree-ring around the metropolis – an M25 for nature, if you will. The London Tree Ring project is an ambitious initiative to create a corridor of plant and animal life around the capital over 25 years. In Hadley Wood, north London, a group of young adults with disabilities are taking part in the project, which also acts as pathway into green sector jobs. “I don’t like being stuck in offices the whole time,” says Josh Limb, a young participant in the project. “I love being outdoors – I can breathe.” Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Martin Belam’s Thursday news quiz Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply • This article was amended on 18 June 2026. An earlier version said Switzerland’s population in 1990 was 3.3 million; in fact, it was approximately 6.8 million.
