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Tuesday briefing: Inside the right’s heated climate-denial debate

Good morning. Half of England and all of Wales are officially in drought, wildfires have burned through parts of the Cairngorms, Suffolk and the Isle of Wight, and reservoirs are running low. Farmers have warned that there could soon be food shortages, and the Royal Horticultural Society is considering moving its hydrangeas to cope with the heat. Many people are now asking a question rarely associated with British summertime: when will it rain? The Guardian has been covering how the climate crisis is supercharging wildfires in Europe, the impossible choices firefighters face about which places to save, the number of people who have died in England due to heat, and the air conditioning haves and have-nots. Had you been reading another newspaper, you may have come away with a very different impression of this extreme weather. Over the last week, a string of articles, mostly in the Telegraph, suggested that Britain should give up on net zero and learn to live with its newly Mediterranean climate; that wildfires had been exacerbated by environmental groups; and, rather grandiosely, that climate “catastrophism” is a “leftist weapon” designed to “destroy capitalism”. In a week when England entered its fourth heatwave of 2026, this line of argument might have seemed more than a little out of touch. But it reflects how climate deniers are reconfiguring their narratives in the face of an indisputable crisis. I spoke to Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change, about how a minority is shaping the political debate and trying to thwart the transition, even while most people want to see more action on climate. First, here are the headlines. Five big stories UK news | Rapists, child sexual abusers and groomers will be excluded from early release plans to ease critical prison overcrowding in a major intervention by Andy Burnham. UK politics | Nigel Farage has made his clearest admission that he was in talks to return to lead Reform UK months before the 2024 general election, casting fresh doubt on previous claims that he was not involved in politics when he received a £5m gift. Spain | A growing chorus of voices has accused Morocco of helping to fuel the crisis in Ceuta, with the leader of the Spanish enclave describing last week’s border crossings as an attack on Spain’s territorial integrity that was seen as being “if not orchestrated, at least encouraged or permitted by Morocco”. Middle East | New talks between Washington and Tehran are the “last chance” for Iran to forge a deal and avoid an escalation of US strikes on the country, Donald Trump said on Monday. Environment | A plastic manufacturer in the north of England is facing potential legal action over emissions of benzene, a carcinogenic chemical with no safe level, the Guardian can reveal. In depth: From ‘lukewarmers’ to ‘daft’ arguments – how climate deniers are reshaping political discourse As the world heats up, denying the reality of climate change has become implausible. “This is no longer a matter of speculation: the wildfires of Europe, pitiless and persistent, are the way we live now,” the Telegraph’s Tim Stanley wrote recently in an article persuading the right to “get serious” about the subject. Instead, a tendency to downplay the seriousness of the crisis has emerged. In this week’s issue of the Spectator, Matt Ridley, a former Conservative peer whose ancestral estate features two coalmines, suggested that a “cult of rewilding” – whose converts allegedly include the RSPB and National Trust – is connected to the risk of wildfires in England (this suggestion was repeated in another Spectator piece on Saturday, £). The Spanish far-right party Vox recently made a similar argument about wildfires in Spain, blaming them on a failure to clear rural areas and invest in firefighting services, rather than on the climate crisis (read Sam Jones’s piece on Spain’s climate deniers here). Another line of argument is to acknowledge that the climate crisis is real, but insist that nothing can be done to address it. “The war against global warming has been lost, with only grievous collateral damage to show for it,” Allister Heath, the Sunday editor of the Telegraph, wrote last week (£) in a piece arguing that people in Britain should learn to love their new Mediterranean climate, and take inspiration from other “blossoming” hot regions, such as Dubai and Israel. *** Who are the ‘lukewarmers’? “All of this commentary reflects a battle on the right between climate sceptics – people often referred to as ‘lukewarmers’ – versus the Conservative voters who actually care about conservation, nature and so on,” Ward told me. The term “lukewarmer” was popularised by Ridley, who is affiliated with the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a campaigning body that has spent decades undermining climate science, and its campaigning arm, Net Zero Watch. “Lukewarmers accept the reality of human-made climate change, but believe the impact of it won’t be as big as people argue, and that policies involved in mitigating these impacts will be expensive and difficult,” Ward says. Net zero has become a particular focus for them. Basic physics dictates that reaching net zero is necessary to stop global temperatures rising even further. Although it was Theresa May, a Tory, who committed Britain to reaching net zero emissions by 2050, voices in the rightwing press have sought to paint the target as a bureaucratic conspiracy devised by lanyard-toting Labour wonks and enforced on an unsuspecting population, spreading “desolation across the loveliest countryside in the world”, as one writer recently put it (£). *** If Britain doesn’t contribute that much to global emissions, does net zero even matter? Another common refrain (I counted at least five articles about the climate crisis published in the Telegraph last week that made variations of this argument) is that, since other countries emit far more carbon than Britain, striving for net zero in the UK is, at best, an irrelevance and, at worst, a decision that will make the country much poorer than other industrialising nations. As the “anti-woke” libertarian podcaster Konstantin Kisin said in a speech to the Oxford Union in 2023, the future of climate change will be decided by “poor people in Asia and Latin America who could not give a crap about saving the planet … because they are poor”. People who make this argument often point to China, which produces about 35% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Since the UK produces less than 1%, why should the UK bother decarbonising when it’s not even responsible for that much damage? “That’s a totally daft argument,” says Ward. “If more than 99% of the emissions damaging the UK come from other countries, then we have a vested interest in persuading those countries to accelerate their transition. And we’re not going to persuade them by dragging our feet.” In fact, China has massively expanded its renewables sector, and has a far higher proportion of electric cars on the road than in Britain. Meanwhile, commentators in Britain are trying to forestall the transition by making misleading arguments about China. *** How is this shaping politics? The 2024 Conservative manifesto committed to reaching net zero by 2050, but Kemi Badenoch ditched the target, perhaps hoping to win back Reform voters (a month before U-turning on the pledge, Badenoch spent a week on a “retreat” hosted by the Tory donor and chair of Net Zero Watch). And among the reported reasons why Ed Miliband didn’t get the role of chancellor were his commitment to net zero and his opposition to new exploration licences in the North Sea. Most British voters are in favour of net zero. Despite this, media coverage of it is more than twice as likely to be negative than positive. This could be helping to drive a false perception that climate action is overwhelmingly unpopular with voters, encouraging MPs to significantly underestimate public support for these policies, and overestimate opposition. In other words, a small chorus of climate sceptics aren’t trying to represent public opinion or persuade us to embrace Mediterranean summers, so much as convince politicians that climate action is deeply unpopular. • For more on extreme weather and the climate crisis, sign up to our free (and very good) weekly email Down to Earth. Click here to subscribe. It features an exclusive weekly piece from our top climate crisis correspondents, as well as a digest of the biggest environment stories. What else we’ve been enjoying I’ve had a sneak peek at the Guardian’s new This Is India newsletter, which launches this morning (you’ll be able to read it online imminently), and Niha Masih’s dispatch from the frontline of the Cockroach movement is essential reading. Sign up for This Is India here to read future editions first. Sam Coare, newsletters team I have fond memories of visiting Blockbuster and arguing with my brother over which VHS our parents would rent us for the weekend, so I loved this piece about the lost civic life of video rental shops. Hettie Audacious when they come off, humiliating when they don’t … this celebration of 50 years of the Panenka shows how thin the line is between footballing genius and stupidity. Sam It’s worth listening to this morning’s episode of Today in Focus with Anna Isaac about her latest story on Nigel Farage’s funding scandals. Her reporting on this has been unmissable. Hettie The Guardian’s annual invertebrate of the year competition is back! Can the reigning champion Milnesium tardigradum defend its spineless crown? The reveal of the 10-strong shortlist is under way, with today’s spotlight turning on the common woodlouse. Sam Sport Tour de France Femmes | Sigrid Haugset, the Norwegian national champion, shocked the established order in the Tour de France Femmes by breaking away to take the overall lead. Fifa | The English FA and Serbia’s have followed Wales’s and Finland’s in dropping support for Gianni Infantino’s re-election bid as Fifa president. Tennis | Emma Raducanu will miss the US Open because of the stress fracture in her right leg that she sustained during the grass-court season and forced her to pull out of Wimbledon. The front pages “Rapists and groomers will not be freed early, says PM”, is the Guardian’s front page today, while the Telegraph writes “Pc Harper killers will still be freed early” and the Times says “Killers but not rapists to be given early release”. The Mail has “Athens suitcase murder suspect”, the i Paper leads on “Driest July in 190 years”, the FT leads on “Apple launches legal challenge to new demand for data access”, and the Mirror splashes “Farage’s sinking ship”. Elsewhere, the Express goes with “Two jabs a year to target ‘silent killer’” and Metro has “15st lighter … and jabs are just the job”. The Latest How Ceuta migrant crisis exposes divisions within Europe Dozens of people died attempting to reach the Spanish enclave of Ceuta after an estimated 50,000 crossed from Morocco last week. The incident has led to a political crisis in Spain and criticism from EU countries. Lucy Hough speaks to the Guardian’s European community affairs correspondent, Ashifa Kassam – watch on YouTube. Cartoon of the day | Rebecca Hendin The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad When she was a teenager, Amy Annette spent summers wrapped up in a black cardigan and was often asked: “Aren’t you hot in that?” She wasn’t hiding from the heat, but from years of feeling ashamed and insecure about her arms. Last month, after decades of avoiding sleeveless tops, the heatwave pushed Annette to bare her arms in public for the first time, at 37 – prompting her to rethink the body standards that had shaped her wardrobe, and her confidence, for decades. “And if it gets any hotter,” she says, “I’m wondering what other internalised standards I can sweat out.” Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

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Cancer survivors need protection from future discrimination, say German politicians

German politicians who have survived cancer have spearheaded proposals to protect people long in remission from what they call rampant discrimination in areas including bank loans, adoption of children and insurance. The policy known as “the right to be forgotten” (RTBF) is a central demand of a community estimated to number 5.5 million people in Germany: former cancer patients who have been given a clean bill of health by their doctors. “Anyone who has medically overcome cancer must not be permanently disadvantaged in any area of life, be it in insurance, credit or employment law,” reads the proposed measure drawn up by the Social Democrats (SPD), junior partners in Germany’s coalition government. Once medically justified time limits – generally five years – have expired, “disclosure of a previously overcome cancer diagnosis can no longer be required”, the paper states. One of the proposal’s initiators is Adis Ahmetović, the foreign policy spokesperson of the SPD’s parliamentary group, who went public with a lymphoma diagnosis at the age of 30 and is now 33. He has been tumour-free since October 2024 and could be medically considered cancer-free in 2029. Ahmetović argues that beyond its ethical justification, the policy “would not cost the state a cent”. He received support from his fellow Social Democrat Manuela Schwesig, who is a breast cancer survivor and the state premier of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on the Baltic coast. Schwesig said Germany remained among EU outliers in creating high obstacles to a fresh start for former cancer patients. “You have the right [in other countries] to make plans again as normal: to buy a house, to start a family,” she told the Funke media group. “Other European countries have long since sorted this out. We need a law for this; voluntary commitments are not enough.” The SPD’s co-leader Lars Klingbeil, who is Germany’s finance minister, overcame tongue cancer, after learning of his illness in 2014. He has also thrown his weight behind the legislation. “Anyone who has beaten cancer must be able to look ahead freely again, socially and economically,” he said. A petition calling for Germany to adopt RTBF reforms has drawn more than 55,000 signatures. It was initiated by Tobias Burggraf, whose daughter was diagnosed with cancer at the age of two and a half. “After the healing, life begins – not the next hurdle,” Burggraf said, describing his goal. He said the SPD-sponsored proposal “covers the thrust of our petition”, calling it “correct and long overdue”. The SPD parliamentary group cited survey data from a patients’ rights lobbying group showing that 77% of medically declared cancer survivors face what it called discrimination when taking out private insurance policies. However, the German Insurance Association (GDV), an industry group, warned against setting fixed time limits on cancer patient status. It said private insurance providers of life and disability coverage must be able to assess patients’ future risk based on scientific review and medical advice to keep policies affordable for all. “Even after successful treatment, relapses, long-term effects of the therapy or lasting health problems may persist,” said the association’s general manager, Jörg Asmussen. “There may also be an increased risk of other diseases, particularly other types of cancer.” Susanne Weg-Remers, of the German Cancer Research Centre in the western city of Heidelberg, said that while some cancer survivors did develop tumours in other organs, the risk was not significantly higher than in the general population. Given that one in two men and one in two to three women in Germany will develop a malignant tumour at some point in their lives, “if you were to use cancer as an argument,” she told Süddeutsche newspaper, “you wouldn’t be allowed to sell insurance policies or grant loans at all”. Patient advocacy groups say automatic presumptions about future health are particularly unfair to younger survivors, whose prognoses are often good. The German Foundation for Young Adults with Cancer said 16,500 people aged 18 to 39 were diagnosed with cancer in Germany each year, as well as 2,100 children, but medical advances meant more than 80% of the two groups could be healed. The European Society for Medical Oncology, which provides cancer information and education, has advocated for a fair common standard for financial services access for cancer survivors across Europe based on a five-year minimum remission period. The society said the current patchwork of laws across the EU led to “unjustified discrimination”. Only 11 EU member states had introduced specific legal measures protecting cancer survivors from financial discrimination, it said, leaving 16 without equivalent protections. “As a result, access to financial services continues to depend heavily on where a cancer survivor lives.” An EU directive that Germany is still working to implement allows for restrictions for a period of up to 15 years after the end of treatment and offers narrow protections in the context of credit and insurance. The UK has no binding RTBF laws. While Ireland passed such a law in 2026 focused on a level playing field for mortgage seekers, the UK has a largely voluntary framework.

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Acrobatic, goofy and super-fast: the biama battles redefining Ivorian dance culture

The 400-strong crowd, perched on plastic chairs and wooden benches in Abidjan’s Yopougon-Selmer neighbourhood, roared with approval as Sauce Graine twisted and turned on the spot with breathtaking speed and dexterity. The dancer, named after the Ivorian palm nut delicacy, was competing in a series of street dance battles set to biama, a frenetic offshoot of coupé-décalé, a type of percussive dance music popular across west Africa that originated in Côte d’Ivoire around the turn of the century. A neighbourhood square in Yopougon-Selmer had been transformed into a dance arena for the event, which got under way about six hours after its advertised midday start. The performers were all under 25, with some as young as five. Audience members, some munching on skewered meat or drinking from beer bottles or plastic cups, periodically joined in as one competitor after another showcased intricate footwork and dramatic chest pops. “This [is a] small ceremony so that people can see the talent we have … a talent that God has given to each of us to share with the whole world,” says Sauce Graine, a 15-year-old whose real name is Arnold and who began dancing to biama six years ago. “Since many people aren’t very familiar with the dance yet, they think it’s just a neighbourhood thing. All we have to do is create the dance so that more people can see it and love it.” Alongside the local strain of hip-hop known as maïmouna – a new fusion of coupé-décalé and rap Ivoire – biama has become emblematic of the resurgence of Ivorian pop culture over the past decade. There is some debate over exactly when biama emerged, but it exploded in popularity after the coronavirus pandemic as young people turned to TikTok to post and respond to dance challenges that fused acrobatics with goofiness that pushed bodies to their limits. “Biama is basically coupé-décalé 2.0, like at 200% speed,” says Cédric Kouamé, a music producer and chief archivist at Baoulecore Archive Center in the Angrè district of Abidjan. “Like maïmouna, it comes from Yopougon . Most trends start [in] Yopougon. It is basically where a lot of artists started their career.” *** For decades, this working-class district has dictated the cultural zeitgeist of both Abidjan and Côte d’Ivoire. Stéphane Doukouré, better known as Douk Saga, grew up there before founding coupé-décalé with his Jet 7 crew after returning from Paris in the early 2000s. There, he had made a name for himself in a nightclub frequented by wealthy young partygoers by setting light to thousands of euros. Their genre championed the philosophy of sagacité – the shrewdness needed to outwit authority – alongside farotement, the flamboyant display of wealth. Its free-spending hedonism offered escapism from many Ivorians living through the country’s civil war. Doukouré’s career was short-lived. He died from lung disease in 2006 at the age of 32. The genre was propelled to new heights by Ange Didier Houon, who was born in Yopougon to an icon of the Ivorian sound engineering industry. In his teens, his Lebanese friends gave him the stage name DJ Arafat, after the Palestinian political leader. One of his earliest breakthrough hits as a teenager was 2003’s Jonathan, a homage to a DJ friend killed in a motorbike crash. Over time, he increased the tempo of his music to match the high-energy, acrobatic roukaskas routines devised by his dancers, drawing on traditional Ivorian dance. Their feet shuffling quickly in lêkê – the ubiquitous Ivorian water-resistant plastic sandals – the dancers performing Arafat’s roukaskas continued a long tradition of audience participation in Ivorian popular music. Arafat’s following grew so large that fans referred to themselves as “the Chinese”. But after his death in another motorbike collision in August 2019, many believed the genre, already showing signs of decline, was nearing its end. Today, a new generation of artists is vying to be the next megastar of Ivorian pop. Among those hoisting the flag for maïmouna are Didi B, who has gained international recognition, and the more street-famous Himra. The rappers’ rivalry entered a new phase last year when both filled stadiums just weeks apart in different parts of the country. Biama remains the more popular of the two subgeres, particularly among children and young people, who proudly call themselves biamaseurs and eagerly accept dance challenges shared across social media. “Biama is, first of all, a dance for the immature,” the popular dancer Kalomaman said in a recent interview. Kouamé argues that dance has always been inseparable form Ivorian music. “Since the beginning of Ivorian music, as artists were creating their sounds, they were also thinking of the dance moves,” he says. He cited the example of Ernesto Djédjé, a superstar of Ivorian music who emerged in the 1970s, who created ziglibithy, a music and dance style whose name comes from a Bété phrase meaning “delicious rhythm”. “Since we were very young, each six months there was a new dance move that we had to learn,” Kouamé syas. Midway through the event in Yopougon, Kehou Mousso – a biama dancer and one of the genre’s few female musicians – took to the stage to loud cheers. Wearing a waist-length orange wig and frilled green outfit, she and four of her dancers came as special guests. Known to her 2.6 million TikTok followers as the “queen of coupé-décalé”, she says the frenetic biama choreography demands constant improvisation. “You have to be improvising every second.” Some cultural observers in Côte d’Ivoire dismiss the genre as little more than “street music”, but biamaseurs remain undeterred. “People will love us,” Sauce Graine says. “They will dance [and] little by little, they will spread the word through their social networks. Then it will take off.”

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Seoul braces for heatwave sweeping South Korea as death toll reaches 16

Seoul is bracing for its first ever “severe heatwave warning” on Tuesday, as South Korea reels from a deadly heatwave that has seen the country record its highest ever temperature. The south-eastern city of Yangsan reached an all-time national record of 42.5C on Sunday afternoon – the highest temperature measured in 122 years of weather observations – and now the heat is shifting westwards, approaching the densely populated capital of more than 9 million people, which is forecast to hit 38C on Tuesday followed by three sweltering days of 37C. South Korea has recorded 16 fatalities linked to heat and more than 2,000 people treated for heat-related illnesses since May, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. Speaking at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, President Lee Jae Myung called on ‌officials to take necessary ‌measures to protect the daily ‌lives of people and inspect power systems as demand for airconditioning surges. “We need to make efforts for a fundamental overhaul of the national crisis ‌system, since this extreme weather is becoming normal,” he said. Seoul authorities held an emergency meeting on Monday and launched initiatives to counter the heat and alleviate health risks. It is the first time the capital has seen a severe heatwave warning under a new system established this year as the government sought to improve how it responds to rising temperatures. Nurses are conducting checks on up to 63,000 residents deemed most vulnerable, including elderly people and people with disabilities or chronic illnesses. In an attempt to dampen rising urban heat in Seoul, a fleet of 200 trucks are spraying almost 2,000km of roads with water. The trucks are operating up to six times a day in the most problematic areas. Seoul’s pedestrian commuters have been snaking their way to work through patches of shade, avoiding direct sunlight even in the morning’s cooler early hours. Others have sought relief under mist-spray zones around the city. Elsewhere, officials in North Gyeongsang province are flying drones equipped with loudspeakers to broadcast safety messages. The drones are also using thermal imaging cameras over areas crowded with people on summer holidays. The nation’s highest temperature on Monday was 41.2C in Goryeong. Multiple cities and regions topped 41C and Seoul reached 39C in the Guro district. Outdoor workers are bearing the brunt of the oppressive heat. A construction worker in Seoul, identified by the Korea Times only as Kim, said: “We take a 10-minute break every hour, but there isn’t even a fan here, so all we can do is sit in the shade … I sweat so much that my clothes rub my skin raw wherever they touch.” Lee, a 55-year-old from Gwangmyeong who collects shopping carts in a supermarket car park, said conditions were brutal. “Lacking ventilitation makes the experience feel like being inside a sauna.” Concern has been expressed for food delivery riders. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has attributed the heatwave to overlapping high-pressure systems over the Korean peninsula combined with strong, direct sunlight under clear skies. The heat in South Gyeongsang province, in the south-east, has been intensified by the “foehn phenomenon” – which occurs when wind crosses a mountain range and becomes hotter and drier on the other side. Another factor in the heatwave mix is Typhoon Dolphin, which has the potential to make conditions better or worse, depending on its path. If the typhoon moves towards eastern China, it could increase humidity and potentially worsening the heatwave and tropical nights in Korea, the KMA said. But a path closer to the south of the peninsula could bring stronger winds, greater cloud cover and rain, temporarily easing the heat. As of Monday, Dolphin was continuing westwards towards the Japanese island of Okinawa, south of the Korean peninsula. It is forecast to weaken further and make landfall as a category 1 or 2 typhoon. Scientists warn that extreme weather events such as heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense as a result of human-induced climate change.

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Ukraine war briefing: Military’s former top commander says Kyiv has no chance of joining Nato

Ukraine’s former top military commander and now ambassador to the UK has been quoted as saying ⁠there is no prospect of the country joining Nato. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, ⁠quoted by Ukrainian news website Evropeiska Pravda, told a meeting of Ukrainian ambassadors on Monday that Ukraine in no way met ⁠the military standards needed to join the alliance. “I know Nato really well. For about 12 years I ⁠personally worked on making sure we met Nato standards, and every year I heard tales about ‌how we would join ‌Nato any day now,” the site quoted him as telling the ‌meeting. “Unfortunately, we will never actually join.” Zaluzhnyi said it was “impossible with the level of development that the armed forces of Ukraine have … to join an organisation guided by World War 2 doctrines”. Ukraine has enshrined in its constitution a strategic goal of membership of Nato and the EU, but has acknowledged it currently would not be welcomed into Nato by all its members. Zaluzhnyi was dismissed as Ukraine’s top commander in 2024 over differences ⁠with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on conducting the war with Russia. Five ⁠people were killed ⁠and ⁠six injured after Ukrainian drones ⁠attacked Russia’s Moscow ⁠region, the governor ‌said on Tuesday. Several fires broke out in the Novoselki industrial zone of the Chekhov municipal district outside the Russian capital, Andrei Vorobyov said on Telegram, adding that firefighters had extinguished the largest blaze, at a warehouse. Near Russia’s second-biggest city, ⁠St Petersburg, a ⁠warehouse facility was also ⁠hit ⁠by drones, regional governor Alexander Drozdenko ⁠said on Telegram, without naming the facility. Neighbouring Finland established a temporary aviation restriction area in the ⁠eastern Gulf of Finland, its defence forces said on X. Ukraine’s frontlines were little changed in July as its forces largely stalled Russia’s momentum, according to an Agence France-Presse analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War thinktank. The Russian army gained a total of less than 40 sq km (15 sq miles) in July, after gaining 30 sq km the previous month. The gains were down sharply from a year earlier, when the Russians were advancing by an average of 405 sq km a month. Kyiv has been carrying out effective strikes deep into Russia and on occupied Ukraine, even as Russia has kept up strikes on Ukraine. In July, the few Russian gains were made in the regions of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia in the south and Sumy in the north-east. The Ukrainian army, for its part, gained 29 sq km in the Dnipropetrovsk region in the centre-east, confirming a trend that began in December 2025. Zelenskyy has dismissed his ambassador to the United States, Olga Stefanishyna. The Ukrainian president’s move – announced by decree on Monday – had been expected for several weeks and coincides with a shake-up including the ⁠replacement of the prime minister and defence minister. It also comes as Kyiv has been lobbying Washington hard to obtain more Patriot air defence missiles to block Russian strikes. Stefanishyna said on Facebook ‌the move to leave her post was “my own decision, driven by personal circumstances” and that she had accomplished much during her almost one year in the role. “We boosted the supply of American weapons and ‌maintained support right when the political climate in Washington was changing and not in our favour.” Ukrainian drone attacks on a Black Sea resort and the annexed Crimea peninsula killed 11 people, Russian officials said, after blaming Ukraine for another explosion that killed five people in a Moscow restaurant. Pjotr Sauer and Angus Thomson report that seven people, including three children, were killed when “drone debris” struck a beach in the seaside town of Arkhipo-Osipovka, the crisis taskforce for Russia’s southern Krasnodar region said on Monday. Another four people were killed in Crimea in a Ukrainian strike, Moscow-installed governor Sergey Aksyonov said. Russia earlier blamed Ukraine for a bombing at a restaurant in central Moscow that killed five people and injured 19, amid growing speculation that a senior Russian military commander was the intended target. The explosion occurred on Saturday evening near the entrance to a restaurant at Kudrinskaya Square. Ukrainian authorities have not yet commented. In Ukraine, one person was killed and dozens more injured in Russian aerial bombings on residential districts in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia, regional chief Ivan Fedorov said on Monday. Near the central city of Kryvyi Rig, a Russian attack killed three – including an eight-year-old – at a service station, the Dnipropetrovsk regional military administration chief said. The prominent Russian anti-war politician Boris Nadezhdin has fled to Paris as Moscow tightens its grip on dissent before parliamentary elections later this year, reports Pjotr Sauer. Nadezhdin, a veteran liberal politician, gained international prominence during Russia’s 2024 presidential election when his long-shot campaign against Vladimir Putin unexpectedly gathered momentum before electoral authorities barred him from running. Since his presidential campaign, Nadezhdin, 63, has remained one of the last well-known Russian public figures to publicly oppose the war in Ukraine.

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Ukrainian drone attacks on Black Sea resort and Crimea kill 11, Russia claims

Ukrainian drone attacks on a Black Sea resort and the annexed Crimea peninsula killed 11 people, Russian officials said, after blaming Ukraine for another explosion that killed five people in a Moscow restaurant. Seven people, including three children, were killed when “drone debris” struck a beach in the seaside town of Arkhipo-Osipovka, the crisis taskforce for Russia’s southern Krasnodar region said on social media. Social media videos, verified by Reuters and the BBC, showed tourists in the water and on the shore watching on as what appeared to be a drone slammed into a busy beach. Another four people were killed in a Ukrainian strike on the illegally annexed Crimea, the Moscow-installed governor, Sergey Aksyonov, said in a post on Telegram. Both Crimea and the Black Sea coast are popular holiday destinations for Russian tourists during summer. Earlier, Russia blamed Ukraine for a bombing at a restaurant in central Moscow that killed five people, amid growing speculation that a senior Russian military commander was the intended target. The explosion occurred on Saturday evening near the entrance to an upmarket Italian restaurant in one of the city’s seven Stalin-era skyscrapers on Kudrinskaya Square. Russian prosecutors said an unidentified woman carrying an improvised explosive device had attempted to enter the restaurant but was stopped by a security guard. The device detonated moments later, killing five people and injuring 19 others. In a statement on Sunday, Russia’s foreign ministry accused Kyiv of carrying out the attack, saying: “The bloody tentacles of [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy’s terrorist gang have reached the Balzi Rossi Italian restaurant in Moscow.” Russian authorities have not identified the intended target or named the victims. However, pro-Kremlin military bloggers and several independent Russian media outlets reported that the attack may have been aimed at Col Gen Alexander Chaiko, the commander of Russia’s aerospace forces, who was reportedly attending a private banquet at the restaurant to celebrate his 55th birthday. Photographs and videos that appeared online shortly after the bombing, purportedly from the private event, showed a stage with the words “Aleksandr 55” displayed in the background. Chaiko is one of Russia’s top military commanders, having led the failed assault on Kyiv in early 2022 before later being promoted to command the Russian air force. The Telegram channel VChK-OGPU, which is known for publishing leaks from within Russia’s security services, reported that Chaiko escaped unharmed. According to the channel, his daughter, Maria, was seriously injured in the blast, while her husband, Daniil Peredriy, was killed. They were outside on the restaurant’s terrace when the explosion occurred. The Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that investigators believed the woman carrying the explosive device may not have known she was transporting a bomb, suggesting it was detonated remotely by another person, killing her. Among the other reported victims was a member of Russia’s elite Federal Protective Service (FSO). Kyiv has not yet commented on the incidents. Both sides have repeatedly said they do not target civilians in the conflict, which is now in its fifth year. In Ukraine, one person was killed and dozens more injured when Russian planes launched a 90-minute bombing blitz on residential districts in the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, the regional chief, Ivan Fedorov, said on Monday. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s intelligence agencies have targeted dozens of senior Russian military officers and Russia-installed officials, accusing them of involvement in war crimes. Ukrainian intelligence services have previously employed a range of tactics, relying on both willing saboteurs and unwitting civilians to carry out bombings. They have succeeded in killing at least four Russian generals and several other senior military figures, as well as pro-war activists deep inside Russian territory, although some operations have missed their intended targets. In 2022, a car bomb killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of the ultranationalist Russian ideologue Aleksandr Dugin, in an attack widely believed to have been intended for her father.

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Trump claims strait of Hormuz could open ‘by tomorrow’ as Iran denies any talks taking place – as it happened

New talks between Washington and Tehran are the “last chance” for Iran to forge a deal and avoid an escalation of US strikes on the country, Donald Trump said on Monday. It comes a day after the US president again said he had called off further “massive strikes” because Gulf allies had urged diplomacy. It’s all very consistent with Trump’s repeated pattern over the last five months as he struggles to find an off-ramp; he threatens devastating military action, only to pull back at the last minute and claim the two sides are on the brink of an agreement to end the war. As my colleague Patrick Wintour notes, this is thought to be the 12th time in the war that Trump has called off threatened strikes. Indeed, Trump said he expected negotiations to begin in the next day or two to reopen the strait and create a pathway for Iran to address the US’s concerns about its nuclear programme. “The first phase is the opening of the straits. The second phase will be the denuclearization,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. “And that will take a little while.” He also reiterated that he was running out of patience with Iran, saying “this the last chance for them to sign a good document.” However, Tehran had on Monday denied that talks with the US were taking place. Esmaeil Baghaei, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, told reporters at a weekly press briefing on Monday that Iran is not currently holding any talks with the US – contradicting claims made by Trump on Sunday night that talks with Iran would happen the next day. Baghaei said that there were no plans to receive a delegation or send an Iranian one, and that Iran’s current focus was on negotiations with Oman over the strait of Hormuz. “We are now going to reach an understanding on a route acceptable to both sides – neither the northern route nor the southern route – but one that respects the sovereign rights of both sides and safeguards our national interests and security,” he said in an interview with Iranian state television. To that, the US president called the Iranian leadership “unbelievably duplicitous” in a post on social media. He wrote on Truth Social: “They ask for a meeting, some would say ‘beg’, talks begin, with more scheduled in the immediate future, and they say, openly and proudly, that they’re not having any discussions, that nothing is being talked about, and they’re only dealing with ‘Oman’.”

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Why is Ceuta a migration flashpoint and how were so many people able to cross from Morocco?

What has happened and where? Border controls between Morocco and the tiny Spanish territory of Ceuta appeared to break down in the past week, allowing tens of thousands of people to cross on to the Spanish side in chaotic and dangerous scenes that resulted in dozens of deaths. The number of arrivals was more than two-thirds the size of the ordinary population in Ceuta, where a humanitarian crisis was playing out on Friday. Spanish officials said on Monday that an estimated 69,500 people who had arrived late last week in Ceuta had returned to Morocco. As of Monday, about 2,500 people who had made the crossing were believed to still be in Ceuta. Ceuta and Melilla, another Spanish territory 400km (250 miles) to the east along north Africa’s Mediterranean coast, constitute the EU’s only land borders with Africa. In Spanish possession since 1580, Ceuta is home to a mixed population of Christians and Muslims, while its Spanish and Moroccan residents and day workers live in relative harmony. Morocco does not officially recognise Ceuta and Melilla as Spanish territories and often refers to them as occupied lands. Why is Ceuta a migration flashpoint? Spain is a main point of arrival into Europe for people seeking better economic opportunities or an escape from violence in their home countries. Ceuta and Melilla are heavily fortified as they are seen as destinations for those trying to reach Spain from Morocco and other parts of Africa. Many migrants who reach Ceuta or Melilla are immediately turned back, but others are held in migrant shelters while they apply for asylum in Spain. To reach Ceuta, people often swim from the Moroccan town of Fnideq, covering about 3 miles (5km). Others attempt the crossing from the nearer town of Belyounech. In 2022, 23 people were killed as about 2,000 people, mostly from sub-Saharan Africa, attempted to cross into Melilla from Morocco, while in 2014 at least 14 people died off Ceuta when 200 people tried to enter by climbing the border fence or swimming around the breakwater that separates the city from Moroccan territory. Migrant arrivals to Ceuta and Melilla are generally much lower than those reaching Spain through the Canary and Balearic islands. Spain’s overall immigrant population has grown considerably in recent decades, with about 10 million people in the country of 50 million having been born elsewhere. Many are from Colombia, Venezuela and Morocco and work in key sectors of the Spanish economy including agriculture, tourism and the services sector. Since at least the mid-1990s, thousands of people cross the Mediterranean each year from north African countries and Turkey in search of asylum in Europe. According to figures from the International Organization for Migration, 35,153 migrant deaths and disappearances have been recorded in the Mediterranean since 2014, with 1,493 dead or missing during the first seven months of 2026. Why were so many people able to cross over? Spanish intelligence sources told El País that the roots of the influx probably lay in a hoax that had swiftly spread across social media after a Spanish supreme court ruling that migrants arriving by sea could not be summarily deported. As the hoax gained steam online, Moroccan border surveillance dwindled to a minimum until it was completely lifted late last week, allowing tens of thousands of people through. However, the crossing could be linked to the rivalry between Morocco and Algeria, and a recent trip by the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, to Algiers. The last mass border crossing, in May 2021, took place after Morocco loosened border controls during a diplomatic row with Spain over Spain’s decision to allow the leader of the Western Sahara independence movement, the Polisario Front, to be treated for Covid-19 in Spain. Morocco and the Polisario Front both lay claim to Western Sahara, which was under Spanish rule until 1975, when colonial authorities handed over the territory to Morocco and Mauritania. That diplomatic crisis ended in 2022 when Madrid reversed its longstanding policy of neutrality and backed Morocco’s plan for Western Sahara – a move that had caused a diplomatic rift between Madrid and Algiers, which supports the Polisario group. Sánchez visited Algiers on 20 July – the first such visit by a Spanish head of government in four years – marking a thaw in relations with Algeria. Matteo Villa, a migration researcher at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, said politics was most likely involved. “What happened in 2021 was the small-scale version of what happened [on Friday],” he said. “I mean, 50,000 people do not come overnight when usually it’s hundreds per month. Sánchez going to Algeria is something Morocco didn’t really like.” Villa suggested Morocco may have loosened the border as a way of showing it has “the upper hand”, especially because authorities there know it would cause an overreaction in Europe. “They love seeing all the fighting between European countries,” he added. How have governments and authorities reacted? Spain deployed its armed forces and additional police to restore order after the breach, which Sánchez described as “a violation of Spain’s territorial integrity”. Images and footage of the border chaos sparked a crisis for the Spanish government and divisions within the EU, where rightwing politicians blamed the incident on Spain’s policy of legalising hundreds of thousands of irregular migrants this year. Italy’s far-right government went so far as to call for Spain to be suspended from the Schengen free-movement zone – even though Ceuta and Melilla do not fall under Schengen arrangements in the usual way – while France tightened its borders with Spain.