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Middle East crisis live: US and Iran trade strikes again, after Trump warns Tehran will ‘pay the price’ for stalled talks

Some media reports suggest negotiations between the US and Iran are ongoing despite strikes launched by both sides this week. Talks to reach a deal are still on track after overnight negotiations, CNN reported, citing a diplomatic source with knowledge of the situation. This was followed by a report by Reuters that efforts to reach a preliminary deal have intensified as negotiators discuss a mechanism to release frozen Iranian funds, Iranian sources and a European official told the news agency. Reuters quoted one of the Iranian sources saying: “Iran wants $6b to $12b of its frozen funds to be released to Tehran, while Washington wants to release funds in stages for humanitarian goods and rejects returning funds to Iran outright.”

Is the Iran ceasefire over? What the latest US attacks tell us

The US has launched a wave of strikes across southern Iran for a second consecutive day. Although there have been several breaches since a ceasefire was agreed between the two sides in April, the attacks this week – launched after the downing of a US helicopter over the strait of Hormuz – represent the most serious and extensive breakdown of the truce to date. The US president, Donald Trump, has raised the prospect of further attacks on the country, while his defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, has told reporters if strikes “have to happen [Friday] night, they will be strong and they will be clear”. Is the ceasefire over? US officials have sought to play down the significance of the attacks in a series of media briefings this week, while claiming that the ceasefire remains in place and that wider negotiations with Iran have not been affected. The Wall Street Journal reported that, after authorising the latest attacks, Trump instructed aides to deliver a message to Iran via Qatar that the strikes did not signal a “restart of all-out war” and were solely a response to the helicopter downing. “Nothing changes where the deal stands right now,” another White House official told Politico. “There’s a military bucket and then there’s a negotiation bucket … so, two things can happen at the same time.” Brett McGurk, who held senior national security positions in the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, noted that the US had clearly telegraphed to Iran that another attack was coming on Thursday. “What they’re trying to do is manage that escalation … to say to Iran: ‘We’re going to respond, this is coming, but this is not a restart of the campaign we started in February’,” he said. For weeks, Trump has claimed that a deal to bring a permanent end to the conflict is close and that he has gone out of his way to avoid a return to all-out war. But the president is grappling with plummeting approval ratings, as the conflict has proved deeply unpopular at home. Meanwhile, despite claiming on Wednesday to “love” inflation, a third consecutive monthly rise in prices is weighing on Trump and his Republican party in the run-up to the midterm elections. Yet despite repeated claims that a deal with Iran is imminent, significant differences remain between the two sides. Restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear programme, the unfreezing of Iranian assets and Israel’s continued war in Lebanon remain substantial obstacles to an agreement. What is the US hoping to achieve with this latest round of strikes? With the White House and Pentagon signalling that the US is not seeking a return to all-out war, Hegseth offered some clues to strategy. The renewed strikes were not happening “because we want to restart anything”, the defence secretary said, but because the US “is prepared to set the terms to ensure that we get the kind of deal President Trump expects. If we need to negotiate with bombs, we will negotiate with bombs.” Meanwhile, a US official told the Wall Street Journal the “military pressure would only increase until Iran ceded to the president’s terms”. The view that US attacks this week were designed to further press Iran to cede to Trump’s terms was reflected in reporting from Axios, which said the US president had discussed with his national security team an operation that would be “big in scale but short in duration”, intended to push Iran towards changing its negotiation position. But “coercive diplomacy” is not the only reason for the escalating attacks, according to Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. The choice of targets – including air-defence systems, command-and-control centres and radar systems – suggest the Trump administration wants to weaken Iran’s ability to target shipping in the strait of Hormuz and “signal at the highest political level that the security situation around the strait is improving, thereby reassuring shipping companies”. Taken together, the attacks can be seen as an attempt to erode Iran’s leverage over the strait of Hormuz, Azizi said. Will further pressure bring Iran to the negotiating table? Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, said on Wednesday that “no sustainable deal can be reached through terrorists, intimidation, or the use of force. Iran has never negotiated under threats and pressure and will never submit to pressure or question,” adding that the US has repeatedly pursued such a policy and should have learned by now “that threats and military intimidation are counterproductive”. Throughout the war, Iran’s leadership has remained unwilling to bend to US terms,despite widespread attacks and economic devastation. According to the Atlantic, at least 1 million Iranian jobs have been lost since the war began, while almost 300,000 people have signed up for unemployment insurance. Inflation is approaching 85%, although the rate is considerably higher for food products. Despite all this, continued US military strikes were unlikely to shift Iran from its current position, said Danny Citrinowicz, the former head of the Iran branch of Israeli military intelligence. “No military operation, whether limited or extensive, short or prolonged, is likely to compel Iran to accept a deal in the US terms,” said Citrinowicz, now a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council. “More likely, an Iranian response would push the parties even further away from diplomacy.” Inside Iran, there are also warnings that the US decision to target radar sites and command centres may be part of a “broader pattern of preparations for a new large-scale war” coordinated with Israel, Azizi said. Such warnings are likely to strengthen the hand of the minority of senior officials in Tehran who favour abandoning peace talks. “The current situation is the direct result of profound mistrust on both sides,” said Citrinowicz, who suggested Iran and the US were beginning to accept the status quo looked unsustainable. “If President Trump genuinely wants a deal, he will have to engage with at least some of Iran’s core demands. If he is unwilling to do so, then he should be prepared for a prolonged confrontation rather than a negotiated settlement,” he said.

French star Patrick Bruel charged with rape and sexual assault

The French singer Patrick Bruel has been charged with rape and sexual assault in one of the biggest #MeToo cases in the French music industry. The 67-year-old, a major figure in French pop culture, was placed under formal investigation over four cases that included alleged rape, attempted rape, sexual assault and sexual harassment. He was designated as an “assisted witness” – a step short of indictment – in four other cases, including alleged rape and attempted rape. The Nanterre prosecutor’s office said Bruel had been questioned on Wednesday over cases relating to nine alleged victims between 2000 and 2019. Complaints from another 13 women accusing him of rape, attempted rape, sexual assault and sexual harassment from 1992 to 2008 had been added to the file handed to investigating magistrates, even if they “appeared to be beyond the statute of limitations at this stage”, the office said. Bruel’s lawyers said he denied all charges. The singer was released on bail in the early hours of Thursday. Bruel’s pop career took off in the 1990s with several top-selling albums. His face was routinely on the cover of teen magazines and his screaming fans were described as being in thrall to “bruelmania”. At the height of his fame, French media often described him admiringly as a “seducer” or “Don Juan”. He acted in dozens of films and in 1998 was briefly a world poker champion and continued to be a regular on TV chatshows. The investigative website Mediapart and the magazine Elle published a series of accusations by women against Bruel in recent months, some detailing alleged assaults dating back to the 1990s. Bruel, whose lawyers told Mediapart, he denied “all allegations of violence, brutality or constraint” had continued acting on stage in a Paris until recent days and had intended to continue his concert tour across France. But he faced protests by feminist campaigners, and the mayors of big cities such as Marseille, Paris and Nancy urged him to cancel his concerts, resulting in him calling off the tour. Bruel attended a police station by appointment earlier this week and was charged on Wednesday night after hours of questioning by judges. The women who spoke out against Bruel in recent months include Daniela Elstner, the current director of Unifrance, a key cultural institution which promotes French cinema abroad. Separately, the lawyer Myriam Guedj Benayoun said this week she had filed a new complaint against Bruel for the alleged attempted rape of a 19-year-old woman at his home in 2000. The woman, who is now a 46-year-old actor, had taken part in filming for a music video with Bruel. Bruel’s lawyers said he denied all allegations. Bruel is the latest French celebrity to face sexual assault claims. The actor Gérard Depardieu, 76, was given an 18-month suspended sentence last year after he was found guilty of sexually assaulting two women, a set dresser and an assistant director, during the shooting of the feature film Les Volets Verts (The Green Shutters) in Paris in 2021. The judge ruled that his name must be added to the sex offender register in France. Depardieu’s appeal will be heard in November. He has also been ordered to stand trial on charges of raping and sexually assaulting the actor Charlotte Arnould at his Paris home in 2018. He denies the charges.

Thursday briefing: What would it take for streets to be safe for all?

Good morning. Who is safe on Britain’s streets? Two acts of gross violence – the murder of Henry Nowak in Southampton and the stabbing of Stephen Ogilvie in Belfast – have been ruthlessly exploited by the far-right and now the spaces we all share are contested. It is an entirely human response to feel unsafe when we watch a clip of an assailant wielding a knife over his victim, or police officers handcuffing a distressed, dying young man. Much as it is when we see ethnic minority families fleeing burning homes in Belfast, or a menacing crowd in Glasgow setting about black people as they pass. Tensions have escalated sharply, but how safe people feel wearing a hijab or a kippah, holding hands with a same-sex partner or driving a wheelchair, has been eroding for years. Today, I speak to our community affairs correspondent, and erstwhile First Edition writer, Aamna Mohdin about how the mood at street level has changed for visible minorities, and set out some very practical steps for what we can all do to make our shared spaces safer. First the headlines. Five big stories Middle East | The US launched new strikes against targets in Iran for the second consecutive day after Donald Trump promised to “hit them hard again” as a two-month-old ceasefire appears close to collapse. UK politics | Keir Starmer’s closest aides are “war-gaming” how to win a leadership contest ahead of Andy Burnham’s much-anticipated return to Westminster if he wins the Makerfield byelection, the Guardian understands. Belfast | Elon Musk’s X will face no action to remove a mass of posts inciting violence in Northern Ireland for at least two months, despite widespread condemnation of the platform and its billionaire owner. Environment | Temperatures in the Antarctic climbed above 15C this month, shattering the previous winter heat record for the usually frozen region and raising concerns about the speed of climate breakdown. UK news | One of the government’s key contractors has launched an investigation into allegations of racism, antisemitism, Islamophobia and hate speech among staff working in immigration removal centres, the Guardian has learned. In depth: ‘Hostility has become increasingly normalised and we’re seeing the consequences’ On Monday evening, Stephen Ogilvie was stabbed on a Belfast street. Sudanese asylum seeker Hadi Alodid has been charged with his attempted murder. Horrific footage of the bloodied attacker straddling his victim circulated on social media, and was seized on by far-right agitators, who escalated local shock and exhorted people on to the streets. On Tuesday evening, some did, and their protest erupted into violence, as masked crowds blocked roads and burned vehicles, houses and shops. Families were forced to flee their homes. And on Wednesday, police used water cannon to disperse a crowd of about 300 people who burned a truck and reportedly planned to target a nearby hotel that was believed to host migrants. Yesterday, Ogilvie’s family stated: “We do not want this terrible tragedy to be used to divide people or fuel hostility.” Their plea was strikingly similar to that of the father of Henry Nowak, who was murdered by Vickrum Digwa, a British Sikh, last December. Both calls were ignored as Reform politicians, Rupert Lowe, and far-right actors including Elon Musk and Tommy Robinson, co-opted these dreadful losses for their own cynical ends. Aamna and I started discussing this last month, while working on a story about how minority communities were braced for a surge in racism following Reform’s historic election success. Four weeks later, it’s clear that the fear has intensified. “But many Black, Muslim, Jewish, LGBTQ+ and disabled groups describe this worsening atmosphere that stretches back years, not weeks,” Aamna tells me. “It feels a very hostile time.” For her, the starting point was Brexit, in particular the language and intention of the Leave campaign in the run-up to the 2016 referendum. “There was a shift in the way politicians and the media talked about these communities,” she says. “This hostility has become increasingly normalised in mainstream discourse and we’re seeing the consequences at street level.” Political rhetoric doesn’t stay in Westminster. “It filters into conversations that people are having at work, on buses, in schools,” she says, “and it explodes in the race riots we saw in the summer of 2024 and now on the streets of Belfast.” While Home Office data indicates a long-term decline in violent crime, hate crimes have increased steeply in recent years; racially and religiously motivated offences in particular. And crime is now often seen through a racialised lens, “so if a person of colour commits a crime an entire community is held in collective punishment” – as British Sikh and Sudanese communities have described to our reporters. *** What’s the reality at street level for visible minorities? While reports of physical assaults and attacks on places of worship are now shockingly familiar, some of this on-street hate takes more insidious forms: dirty looks, muttered comments, shouted slurs, vocally discussing how a person might have arrived in the UK or whether they’re entitled to a disabled parking space. “Muslim women, particularly hijabi-wearing women, often take the brunt of this,” says Aamna. Incremental attacks affect people’s daily decision-making. “They don’t go to certain streets,” Aamna tells me. “They don’t go to certain public facilities. They will do a lot more research before meeting up with friends.” “Parents are increasingly thinking about how their children experience public space,” she adds. Youngsters are missing out on normal rites of passage like travelling home from school unaccompanied. “I spoke to one rabbi who won’t allow her children to wear any shirts with Hebrew lettering because of the danger she feels that it might put them in.” *** Who is pushing division? Aamna references Glenn Gibbins, a newly elected – and now suspended – Reform councillor who complained in a 2024 social media post about “the amount of Nigerians in town”, suggesting: “Should melt them all down and fill in the pot holes!!” He has since apologised. “When Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, was asked about this, he not only refused to condemn it,” says Aamna, “he then turned towards his supposed support for the Jewish community as protection.” (Tice labelled the allegations sneering and smearing.) “What’s worrying me about the rise of Reform and other far-right parties is that we’re increasingly seeing a divide-and-rule approach to race and identity. Certain minority communities are told they matter. Others are treated as suspect. Some groups are encouraged to see themselves as victims of multiculturalism, while others are portrayed as a threat to it.” The result, says Aamna “is that minority communities are encouraged to fear and distrust one another … it doesn’t only make life harder and less safe for everyone, it weakens the possibility of collective action.” “The most successful anti-racism movements in British history have been based on broad coalitions, bringing together people of different races, faiths, and backgrounds . If we allow ourselves to be divided into competing grievances, this becomes harder to achieve.” *** Keeping each other safe I’ve been down at the Guardian’s London headquarters this week, and this badge I wear prompted a few conversations. It says “safe with me” – a campaign by the Glasgow-based charity Refuweegee that asks friendly local cafes, shops and individuals to identify themselves. Maybe it’s the kind of virtue-signalling you’d expect from this white, middle class correspondent but for me, living in a city where asylum seekers were targeted in the run-up to the Scottish parliament elections, it represents a commitment I’ve made: if I see someone being hassled or harassed, I’ll do my best to make them comfortable, or a wee bit safer. After crowds of black-clad young lads streamed through Glasgow on Tuesday evening, injuring three people of colour, I checked in with Selina Hales, who runs Refuweegee. On an individual level, she says, being a helpful bystander is sometimes as simple as being present. “No words need to be exchanged. It’s that you’re standing alongside that person.” As for the businesses now displaying the poster: “It’s not about direct confrontation, it’s about holding a safe space and loudly and proudly announcing our solidarity.” Her advice is based on classic bystander intervention developed to counter playground bullying in the 1990s, built around three actions: direct (ask the person engaging in harmful behaviour to stop), delegate (if that’s not safe, find someone whose job it is to help,) or distract (ask for directions, change the subject, remind the aggressor that they’re in public and being observed). A similar Transport for London campaign suggests straightforward ways to interrupt harassment without putting yourself in danger, by connecting with the victim, like asking if you recognise them from a recent sports game or complimenting their trainers. And if you don’t feel able to intervene in a direct way, even checking in with someone in the aftermath of an incident can help: “These small acts of solidarity matter,” says Aamna, “because this level of hostility really thrives when people feel isolated.” Incredible things happen when different communities work together – like when trade unions stepped in to replace funding cut by Reform for this year’s Durham Pride, and train drivers marched together with drag queens. Watching the violence unfold on the streets of my city, and elsewhere, it’s easy to feel helpless. But I’m not. We’re not. As Aamna says so beautifully: “All of us can shape the atmosphere around us.” What else we’ve been reading Sammy Gecsoyler has spoken to some of the 82,000 under-25s who have been unemployed for more than a year in the UK about how it is affecting their lives. Patrick Martin Belam makes sense of where the Dr Who franchise might go next and why the BBC doesn’t quite know how to make it work for the 21st century. Libby Our Latin America correspondent Tom Phillips has been in Caracas writing about how former Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro is being erased from public life. Patrick Ben Quinn’s analysis of how far-right agitators use online “trigger events” to mobilise off-line disorder is essential reading. Libby We are almost halfway through the year, and the culture desk has put together this list of the best films of 2026 so far. Patrick World Cup 2026 On the pitch England warmup triumph | Thomas Tuchel’s side finished their final pre-tournament prep with a warm-up game against Costa Rica. The 3-0 win, thanks to Declan Rice’s strike, Anthony Gordon’s penalty and a late third from Ollie Watkins, sets up the England team nicely ahead of their first group stage match against Croatia on Wednesday. Portugal prepped | Cristiano Ronaldo is preparing for what must surely be his final World Cup. The 41-year-old is the second oldest player at the tournament, and his nation Portugal are tipped to go far in the competition. Last night, their 2-1 win against Nigeria saw goals from Pedro Neto and Francisco Conceicao. Field festivities | Tonight, Mexico City’s Azteca stadium hosts the first of three opening ceremonies, likely to feature Bad Bunny and Shakira, at 18:30 BST. The Canadians hold theirs tomorrow at 18:30 BST, and the Americans at 12:30 BST ahead of their respective opening matches. Off the pitch USA | Ahead of the co-hosts first game against Paraguay, Sid Lowe sat down with head US coach Mauricio Pochettino. They discuss his strange path to managing the US – and how far the former Tottenham manager can take them in the competition. Predictions | Who will be the breakthrough star of the tournament? Who is going to win it all? The Guardian’s sports writers have made their final predictions. Fifa | Gianni Infantino told football fans to “chill and relax” on the eve of the World Cup, while Fifa faced criticism from the United Nations over the immigration issues that have overshadowed the buildup to the tournament. Today’s Fixtures Mexico v South Africa, 20:00 BST, Mexico City South Korea v Czechia, 03:00 BST Friday, Guadalajara The front pages “Water cannon deployed on second night of unrest in Northern Ireland”, is the Guardian’s front page today, while Metro says “Burning hatred no way to bring Stephen justice”. The Telegraph writes “Smugglers guarantee UK entry via Ireland” and the Times says “Single migrant sent back after crossing Irish border”. Elsewhere, the Mail leads with “Phone ‘kill switch’ to end trade in stolen mobiles”, the FT has “ECB reined in Revolut’s European arm over rapid pace of product innovation”. The i Paper has “Pictured: Russian drone tech boss at Disneyland”. On the World Cup, the Sun features a “Dear England” letter and the Mirror says “Yes we Kansas”. Today in Focus: The Latest Belfast protests: masked men, torched cars and violent unrest Violence erupted in Northern Ireland this week in response to a stabbing attack in Belfast that was captured in a graphic video. Crowds, including masked men, burned vehicles and houses, hours after Elon Musk, Tommy Robinson and other agitators encouraged people to take to the streets. To explain more, Nosheen Iqbal speaks to Ireland correspondent Rory Carroll – watch the episode on YouTube here. Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad Britain’s young carers are some of the best people in our country. During what is meant to be the most carefree part of their lives, they spend hours every day cleaning, cooking and looking after a loved one, often without a proper break for long periods of time. On average, two children in every school class are carers. The Guardian spent time with some of them in Walthamstow at a community event where they got a rare and well-deserved night off. The resulting film, Is Mum OK?, has been released during Carers Week, a campaign to celebrate unpaid carers across the UK. Watch it on YouTube here. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Martin Belam’s Thursday news quiz Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

US and Iran exchange strikes for second day, as ceasefire appears close to collapse

The US launched a new round of airstrikes on Iran into Thursday morning after Donald Trump warned Tehran would “pay the price” for stalled negotiations, prompting Iran to respond with strikes targeting Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. The new US assault across a range of Iranian cities came as efforts to negotiate an end to the war again appeared stuck, with Iran insisting it would maintain its chokehold on the strait of Hormuz. The American attack appeared more intense and wider than the day before, but Iran released no information about what was hit. Explosions were reported around Iran’s capital, Tehran, as well as the port city of Bandar Abbas and other southern areas along the strait of Hormuz. Before the strikes, Trump had promised to “hit them hard again” as a two-month-old ceasefire appears close to collapse. Kuwait closed its airspace because of the Thursday morning attack, without giving details of any damage. Jordan didn’t acknowledge the attack, though the US embassy in Amman warned about it. And Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens without mentioning possible damage there. The third back-and-forth strikes this week have tested a shaky two-month ceasefire. The first were attacks between Iran and Israel on Sunday into Monday, followed by the two rounds of fire between the US and Tehran. The two days of strikes followed the downing of a US Apache helicopter over the strait of Hormuz, which Trump has blamed on Iran. “The strikes are in response to Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression,” US Central Command said in a statement. Trump has accused negotiators in Tehran of “playing us for suckers” – a day after repeating claims that a peace deal was imminent. “We hit them hard yesterday and we’re going to hit them hard again today,” the US president told reporters at the White House on Wednesday. Trump added: “We were really close to a deal, but they keep tapping us along, they keep playing us for suckers.” The president also claimed the US has been taking oil out of Iran: “I’m just announcing today for the first time, but we’ve been taking out millions of barrels of oil, millions of barrels every night.” Without sharing any other details, he added: “Millions of barrels of oil has come out, and that’s why it’s at $85-$90 a barrel, instead of $250.” Iranian state media said previous US strikes launched in the early hours of Wednesday had hit two reservoirs in southern Iran, leaving 20,000 residents without water. Talks to turn the ceasefire into a durable peace have been stalling for weeks, with periodic flare-ups as both sides continued to launch limited strikes and trade blame for violating the truce. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baqaei, has said the US strikes had jeopardised the ongoing ceasefire negotiations. According to Fox News, Trump said in a phone interview that he could order new strikes on power plants and bridges because Iran was taking too long to make a deal. Trump has frequently threatened to resume military action since the ceasefire was established, but has not yet fully followed through. Regional mediators have been trying to de-escalate tensions. A delegation from Qatar – a key mediator – landed in Tehran on Wednesday to discuss the latest developments, Iranian media reported. The US military described its initial attacks as a “proportional response” to the downing of the Apache helicopter, saying its two crew members had been rescued. The US said it had hit Iranian air defences, ground control stations and radar sites. Iran said Qeshm island and the port city of Sirik were attacked, while Iranian media reported explosions in the seaside city of Bandar Abbas. Two crew members of a tanker were reported missing and another injured after a suspected missile strike by the US military enforcing its blockade of Iran’s shipping routes, according to UK maritime security company Ambrey. Trump is keen for a peace deal as US midterm elections approach amid rising inflation and plummeting presidential approval ratings. However, significant gaps remain between the two sides. Iran is seeking the lifting of international sanctions, the unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets, and control over the strait of Hormuz. Trump has said any future peace deal must prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, while Tehran denies that it wants one. A significant obstacle to a lasting peace deal between Iran and the US has been the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon. Iran has insisted that any ceasefire must include the Lebanese front, while Israel and the US have been eager to separate the two.

Aukus is among Australia’s worst foreign policy decisions and requires ‘heroic’ optimism, Gareth Evans says

Aukus will prove to be one of the worst defence and foreign policy decisions ever made by an Australian government and is only being permitted by Donald Trump in order to destroy Chinese nuclear threats to the US mainland, former foreign affairs minister Gareth Evans has said. In evidence to an independent public inquiry into the $368bn nuclear agreement with the US and UK on Thursday, Evans, a cabinet minister in the Hawke and Keating governments, warned the transfer and construction of submarines to Australia from the early 2030s was effectively only an extension of the American military fleet. He said a future US administration would not come to Australia’s aid in the event of an “existential attack” and would only assist in a military conflict if its own assets on Australian soil were threatened. “The notion that extended nuclear deterrence justifies our prostration – that the US really would be prepared to sacrifice San Francisco for Sydney, let alone Miami for Melbourne – is, and always has been, a ludicrous delusion,” Evans told the inquiry. Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email Foreign affairs minister from 1988 to 1996, Evans told the committee hearing in Melbourne the delivery of three Virginia-class submarines from the US starting in 2032 was unlikely, because of construction delays and existing shortages in the US fleet. And he argued the complexity and timeline of the second phase of Aukus – the UK-designed, Australian-built Aukus class submarines - required even more “heroic levels of optimism” than was needed for the American vessels. “Every report coming out of the UK indicates that its defence-industrial base is presently under extraordinary stress, with submarine building schedules tightening and costs increasing, and with every prospect of further deterioration, notwithstanding Australia’s commitment to spending $4.5bn over 10 years to help boost production rates.” Evans said the government’s expected price tag for the deal was “wholly speculative” and argued the US would view the submarines primarily as supplementary assets, effectively embedded into US military command, for the task of finding, tracking, attacking and destroying Chinese submarines seen as posing a risk to the US mainland. Associate Professor Tilman Ruff, co-founder of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, told the inquiry Aukus would exacerbate regional tensions, and, in the event of conflict, make Australia “a higher priority target, including for nuclear attack”. He said the use of “weapons-grade, highly-enriched uranium” to power the Aukus submarines undermined global non-proliferation efforts, and said Australia had no solution for how it would deal with hundreds of kilograms of high level radioactive waste. “It’s a very significant issue, because no country has resolved this huge problem, of how to manage this material. And there’s no guarantee, given the timeframes involved, and the hazards of the material over geological time, that any arrangement we come up could absolutely reliably isolate that material over hundreds of thousands or millions of years. “The additional complication here is that it needs a really high level of security because in 10,000 years somebody could go and dig that stuff up and build nuclear weapons with it.” Ruff said Australia had a poor track record, over decades, of attempting to “impose radioactive waste facilities” on unwilling communities. “The potential for the Commonwealth to declare virtually anywhere in Australia as defence land and impose waste is a profound concern from a democratic and good governance point of view, as well as health and environmental and proliferation ones.” Thursday’s first hearing of the public inquiry – which is not a parliamentary process and is being backed by trade unions and the Australian Peace and Security Forum – is being led by commissioners including the former Labor minister Peter Garrett and former defence boss Chris Barrie. Current Labor ministers have accused the inquiry of being anti-Aukus from the outset. Highly sceptical of the Aukus agreement, the inquiry’s commissioners will hold public hearings around the country before delivering a reporting in October. The foreign minister, Penny Wong, said on Thursday she and Marles had discussed Aukus with their UK counterparts in regular talks overnight. The UK government has confirmed the first steel for the newly built joint submarines will be cut next year, even as Britain’s existing submarine program runs years behind targets and billions over budget. “This submarine capability is central to assuring Australian sovereignty in a much more contested world,” Wong said. “It is a capability we need in a world that is more contested. There is no doubt that this project has its challenges. There is no doubt it is ambitious. But there is also no doubt that we do need this capability to assure our interests. And we are very focused on delivering it.” Labor is pushing back on criticism of the plan, including from its own MPs, before the party’s national conference in Adelaide next month.

US says second day of strikes ‘completed’ – as it happened

This blog has now closed, but our live coverage of the Middle East continues here.

‘Highway of death’: the Ukrainian drone campaign menacing Russian logistics

Russian forces call it the “Novorossiya” route, the crucial main supply line that snakes through the Ukrainian territories under Moscow’s occupation, linking Rostov-on-Don in Russia to Melitopol, Mariupol and Crimea via the Sea of Azov coastline. In recent months, however, Ukrainian forces have given the R-280 a new name – “the highway of death” – in reference to the Ukrainian drones that dominate the airspace above the road, hunting down convoys of Russian military traffic. The road, which has been almost completely closed to civilian traffic since late May, is particularly important to Moscow because it constitutes the main land corridor for supplying Russian forces in the south that avoid the exposed Kerch Bridge to Crimea. Drivers have recorded video footage that not only shows burnt-out trucks on the side of the road, but in some instances captures the drone attacks themselves. Traffic was suspended this week on the Chonhar Bridge – a key section of the road connecting Russia-occupied Kherson province to Crimea – after a series of Ukrainian drone strikes. Ukraine’s 1st Separate Assault Regiment said on Tuesday: “We see all movements and totally control the enemy’s repair works. We are ready to make our long-range adjustments at any moment.” Ukrainian drone operators, including those of 412th “Nemesis” brigade, say dozens of trucks and tankers have been destroyed as part of an intensified effort known as the “middle strike campaign”. The campaign is aimed atRussian targets located between 20km and 200km behind the frontline, with a focus on logistics and supply lines. Last month, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said such strikes had quadrupled since February. “There are now twice as many strikes at distances of 20km-plus compared with March,” Zelenskyy said on 5 May, “and four times as many compared with February. And there will be even more. This is a priority area.” Three weeks later, Ukraine’s defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, was more explicit. The intention, he said, was a “logistics lockdown”, and extra funds and drones were being funnelled to the most effective units. “Our task now, as directed by the president, is to maximise the middle strike and, in coordination with the military, create a complete logistics lockdown for the enemy,” Fedorov said. His formula is simple: the enemy “will no longer feel safe even at a great distance from the frontline”. The impact on the Russian supply line has been remarkable. On Tuesday, Robert Brovdi, the commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, said military cargo traffic along the highway had fallen by 71% over the past two weeks. Ukrainian drone units are coy about the precise details of the new tactics, but a central component of the effort appears to be the use of swarms of drones to attack logistics routes including roads, railways and bridges in numbers that seem to have caught Russian forces by surprise. US-produced Hornet drones have reportedly featured heavily in the Ukrainian attacks, their operators assisted by AI to identify truck traffic. The winged drones, which are the size of a large surf board and have a range of about 150km, have been used to patrol and bomb Russian convoys almost continuously. One immediate impact has been fuel shortages in Crimea. Ukrainian forces also appear to have been utilising a new, locally produced 2 metre-long lightweight fixed-wing drone, known as the Morrigan, which can be launched from a sling shot or a rail, removing the need for a road or airfield. A Russian official quoted on the Meduza independent news site also suggests that airdropped mines are being used. Yevgeny Balitsky, the Kremlin-installed head of the occupied part of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, described a “comprehensive remote mining system” that detonated on movement, warning drivers to “limit trips unless absolutely necessary”. The end result has been roads littered with the charred hulks of destroyed Russian trucks, as convoys have tried to move off the main roads to avoid detection. The new Ukrainian tactic has been noted by independent analysts, including the US-based Institute for the Study of War thinktank. In a recent update, it said: “Ukrainian intermediate-range strikes are already achieving notable operational effects, including degrading Russia’s ability to use the key Russian highway connecting Russia to occupied Crimea and GLOCs [ground lines of communication] around Donetsk City.” On 21 May, Vladimir Saldo, the Kremlin-appointed governor of Russian-occupied Kherson region, signed a decree introducing restrictions on civilian truck movements on the R-280 where it runs along the Sea of Azov. In an indication of the Ukrainian success, Saldo compared the strikes to the siege of Leningrad: “This is cynical barbarism. In its cruelty, these actions are reminiscent of the fascist blockade of Leningrad, when the enemy tried to intimidate people, sever connections between territories and break the will of the civilian population.”