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German chancellor warns leaders that decisions they make now on Ukraine will ‘decide the future of Europe’ – live

Nearly half of Europeans see Donald Trump as “an enemy of Europe”, rather more rate the risk of war with Russia as high and more than two-thirds believe their country would not be able to defend itself in the event of such a war, a survey has found. The nine-country poll for the Paris-based European affairs debate platform Le Grand Continent also found that nearly three-quarters of respondents wanted their country to stay in the EU, with almost as many saying leaving the union had harmed the UK. Jean-Yves Dormagen, a political science professor and founder of the polling agency Cluster17, said: “Europe is not only facing growing risks, it is also undergoing a transformation of its historical, geopolitical and political environment. The overall picture [of the survey] portrays a Europe that is anxious, that is deeply aware of its vulnerabilities and that is struggling to project itself positively into the future.” The polling found that an average of 48% of people across the nine countries see Trump as an outright foe – ranging from highs of 62% in Belgium and 57% in France to lows of 37% in Croatia and 19% in Poland. “Across the continent, Trumpism is clearly considered a hostile force,” Dormagen said, adding that this perception was hardening, with fewer people than in December 2024 describing Trump as “neither friend nor foe” and more as definitely hostile. However, Europeans still view the relationship with the US as strategically important: when asked what position the EU should adopt towards the US government, the most popular option (48%) was compromise. The survey in France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Poland, Portugal, Croatia, Belgium and the Netherlands also found a relative majority (51%) felt the risk of open war with Russia in the coming years was high, and 18% considered it very high.

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US and EU critical minerals project could displace thousands in DR Congo – report

Up to 6,500 people are at risk of being displaced in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by a multi-billion-dollar infrastructure project funded by the EU and the US, amid a global race to secure supplies of copper, cobalt and other “critical minerals”, according to a report by campaign group Global Witness. The project, labelled the Lobito Corridor, aims to upgrade the colonial-era Benguela railway from the DRC to Lobito on Angola’s coast and improve port infrastructure, as well as building a railway line to Zambia and supporting agriculture and solar power installations along the route. Angola has said it needs $4.5bn (£3.4bn) for its stretch of the line. The project is designed to facilitate the export of minerals used in green energy technologies, such as electric car batteries. It comes as western countries, China and Gulf states vie to control the critical minerals trade. Up to 1,200 buildings are at risk of demolition due to the planned rehabilitation of the stretch of railway from the Congolese mining city of Kolwezi to the Angolan border, most in Kolwezi itself, Global Witness estimated, based on analysis of satellite data. Many poorer residents of the Kolwezi neighbourhood Bel Air have built houses and businesses close to the railway line. A buffer zone where construction is not allowed was previously rarely enforced, according to Global Witness. The line has mostly been out of use since the 1980s, until recently when the line started to be rehabilitated. Lobito Atlantic Railway – a consortium of companies including Portuguese construction company Mota-Engil, Singapore-headquartered commodity trader Trafigura and Belgian railway operator Vecturis – won a 30-year concession to operate the Benguela Railway in 2023. Some residents bought land from vendors who may not have owned it, a community leader named only as Emmanuel told Global Witness. Others said they had bought plots from workers who had been given land by their employer, Société Nationale des Chemins de Fer du Congo (SNCC), the DRC state railway company. Jean-Pierre Kalenga, the minister for land affairs in Lualaba province, where Kolwezi is located, said people living inside the buffer zone were “illegals”, according to Global Witness. The Guardian has approached the DRC national communications ministry for comment. “You can’t say [the residents] are ‘illegal’. No one has prevented them from building. They’ve been left to live there for 10, 20, 30 years,” Donat Kambola, the president of a local non-profit organisation, Initiative pour la Bonne Gouvernance et les Droits Humains (IBGDH), told Global Witness. There was also disagreement over the size of the buffer zone where construction is not allowed. Lobito Atlantic Railway (LAR) said it was 10 metres either side of the tracks. However, Congolese officials and a member of the SNCC union told Global Witness it was 25 metres either side. A LAR spokesperson said: “Lobito Atlantic Railway consortium is providing financing for the existing railway in the DRC, in exchange for use of the line. SNCC retains full responsibility for the line’s maintenance and operation within the DRC. “LAR Consortium is not aware of, and has not been presented with, any evidence to support the claim that 6,500 people residing in the informal settlement of Bel Air in Kolwezi could be displaced by the ongoing project to rehabilitate the existing railway in the DRC.” Kolwezi residents interviewed by Global Witness said they feared being forcibly evicted without compensation, claiming they knew of houses that were demolished without payment to make way for new roads and mines. When it secured the concession, LAR committed to spending $455m on the 835-mile Angola section of the railway and $100m on the 249-mile DRC segment. Western financing pledges include a $553m loan from the US government’s development finance corporation for Lobito port and the Angola railway and €50m (£44m) from the EU to upgrade Zambian rail infrastructure. An EU commission spokesperson said: “The project is still at an early stage. Any possible impacts linked to the planned rehabilitation of the Lobito railway line in the DRC will be assessed through a full feasibility study and detailed technical design, which also includes an independent environmental and social impact assessment study. These are still under way. “What we can confirm is that the EU applies the highest social and environmental standards in all the projects it finances. “These foresee, among others, thorough consultations with relevant communities and, where needed, a resettlement action plan to ensure fair compensation and support. “The EU is not involved in the rehabilitation works currently carried out by SNCC or the LAR consortium. We therefore have no additional information to provide at this stage.”

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Hardline migration policies are fuelling people smuggling, report finds

Hardline migration policies adopted by governments across the globe have been a boon for people smugglers, fuelling demand and allowing them to raise their prices, according to a report. The findings, released on Thursday by the Mixed Migration Centre of the Danish Refugee Council, and based on interviews with thousands of migrants and hundreds of smugglers, come as officials prepare to gather next week in Brussels to discuss how best to combat smuggling. The centre said it had timed the release in order to provide policymakers – who have embraced slogans such as the British government’s “smash the gangs” – with evidence that could guide the discussions. “Governments say they want to ‘break the business model’ of smugglers, yet our data shows the opposite is happening,” Roberto Forin, the acting director of the Geneva-based centre, said in a statement. The findings draw on more than 80,000 interviews with people who were on the move across the globe between 2019 and the first half of 2025. More than 50,000 of them said they had used smugglers, with many of them linking their decision to the absence of accessible opportunities for legal migration. The researchers also spoke with 458 smugglers in west and north Africa between 2021 and 2025. “Many smugglers told us that stricter enforcement is actually fuelling demand,” said Chloe Sydney, the centre’s lead researcher. Case in point were the 102 smugglers interviewed on the central Mediterranean route. Even as irregular arrivals to Italy dropped in 2024, nearly half – 44% – of the smugglers said demand for their services had increased, partly because of the tighter border measures, said Sydney. “Instead of breaking their business model, it is being boosted.” Among the smugglers interviewed, 57% said they had increased their fees, with 78% of them linking the higher prices to the increased risk they were taking due to hardline migration policies. Nearly half of the smugglers (49%) admitted being in touch with officials such as border guards, police or detention staff, suggesting state officials were frequently complicit in smuggling operations. Despite widespread assertions that smugglers are luring people into irregular migration, just 6% of the migrants surveyed said smugglers had influenced their decision. Instead, most of them said the decision had been their own or had been influenced by friends or relatives who were already abroad. The report also looked at who was most likely to use smugglers, finding that those fleeing insecurity, conflict and limitations on their rights and freedoms commonly did, as did those embarking on longer, more perilous journeys. The data made it clear that smugglers were not the cause of irregular migration, said Forin. Instead, he pointed to the lack of safe and legal alternatives to explain why people were resorting to irregular routes. In Europe, campaigners have long warned that policymakers are pushing people towards smugglers by restricting legal migration pathways such as family reunification. “When regular pathways shrink, the role of smugglers rises,” said Forin. “If policymakers don’t address why people turn to smugglers, they end up strengthening the very networks they’re trying to stop.”

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Putin and Modi to meet amid politically treacherous times for Russia and India

When Vladimir Putin last set foot in India almost exactly four years ago, the world order looked materially different. That visit – lasting just five hours due to the covid pandemic – saw Putin and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi discuss economic and military cooperation and reaffirm their special relationship. Three months later, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine would turn him into a global pariah, isolating Russia from the world and restricting Putin’s international travel. The last visit was also several years before Donald Trump was re-elected and upended years of closely nurtured US-India relations with inflammatory rhetoric and some of the world’s most punishing import tariffs, throwing Delhi into a tailspin. Against this turbulent geopolitical backdrop, analysts emphasised the significance of Putin travelling to India on Thursday to meet Modi, both as a symbol of the enduring relationship between the countries and as a message that neither would be cowed by US pressure. The summit comes at a critical juncture for both countries. Putin arrives in Delhi after rejecting the latest Ukraine peace proposal proposed by the US, confident that recent advances by Russian forces on the battlefield have strengthened his hand. Petr Topychkanov, Moscow-based senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said that for Russia, “the importance of this visit lies primarily in the fact that it is happening at all”. “It will signal that Russia is returning to something resembling normal international relations,” said Topychkanov. “Russia is no longer anxious about the risks of political isolation.” For India, there are even greater stakes at play. As Aparna Pande, director of the India and south Asia initiative at the Hudson Institute, put it, Delhi is currently grappling with its most unfavourable geopolitical climate in years, thanks to “a semi-isolationist America, a weaker Russia and a very powerful China”. In a notable sign of the tightrope India has to walk, on the eve of Putin’s arrival a joint opinion piece by the French ambassador, German high commissioner and UK high commissioner to India was published in the Times of India, titled “Russia doesn’t seem serious about peace”. It prompted a stinging response from India’s foreign ministry, which said it was “not an acceptable diplomatic practice to give public advice on India’s relations with a third country”. ‘China remains the greatest threat to India’ India’s relationship with Russia goes back to the cold war and has remained deeply entrenched since then, with Russia remaining India’s biggest defence supplier. It is an alliance that was long-tolerated by western governments, even after Putin’s actions in Ukraine, but Trump’s return to the White House has signalled a markedly different approach. Over the past three years, the US and Europe turned a blind eye as India became one of the largest buyers of cheap Russian oil, despite sanctions in the west. But after the US president’s peacemaking efforts in Ukraine failed earlier this year, Trump began to accuse India of bankrolling Russia’s invasion. He publicly put pressure on Delhi to halt its Russian oil purchases, which culminated in a punishing additional 25% punitive US tariff on Indian imports. In Delhi, which has pursued a multi-alignment foreign policy since independence and reacts poorly to any outside interference, the perceived attempts by Trump to meddle and coerce was met with outrage, resulting in the worst decline in US-India relations in years. In response, Pande said, India has returned to its default mode of “hedging” in its unorthodox alliances, “signalling to the US it has multiple options and waiting to see where everything will fall”. The last meeting between Putin and Modi was just three months ago, alongside Chinese premier Xi Jinping, where the three leaders were pictured holding hands and sharing jokes – optics that prompted fury from Trump. Yet India has other pressing priorities in its engagement with Russia, namely the vast superpower that sits along its febrile north and north-eastern border. “From the Indian side – for all the talk of Russian being a great and loyal friend – the real reason that relationship is important is geography,” said Pande. “China remains the greatest threat to India for the foreseeable future and since the Soviet Union, India has always relied on Russia as a continental balancer against China.” The increasingly close, “no-limits partnership” between Moscow and Beijing has rattled India, said Pande, and left them hoping to find a way to “prevent Russia from ever getting too close to China and ensure it can count on Moscow to put some pressure on the Chinese”. It has also prompted India to try to move away from its dependence on Russia, particularly on defence. For decades, about 70% of Indian defence purchases came from Russia but in the past four years, this has reduced to less than 40%. While the sale of weapons and planes – in particular Russian S-400 air defence systems and the Sukhoi Su-57 fighter aircraft – will probably be a key component of Modi and Putin’s talks on Friday, Pande said: “India will try to strike a balance; keep purchasing enough Russia weapons to retain the alliance, but not be so dependent that if Russia suddenly cut off supplies under China’s pressure, India would be left hanging.” For all the bear hugs and golf buggy rides that Modi and Putin have publicly enjoyed together in recent years, “this is a relationship based on pure realpolitik,” she added. The question of oil Growing economic cooperation and bilateral trade between the two countries is also likely to be on the table at the summit. At an event on Tuesday with leading Russian economists, Putin emphasised Russia’s plan to take its cooperation with China and India “to a qualitatively new level”, flying in the face of western sanctions. The question of oil also looms large. While Modi has insisted that India would continue to buy Russian oil, newly imposed sanctions by the US and EU which threatens companies that buy from Russia has led to a notable slowdown in purchases by the Indian private sector. Meanwhile, in a move seen as a bid to appease Trump, India has agreed to import more US oil and gas. In a briefing this week, Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, acknowledged “obstacles” in economic and energy cooperation between the two countries but said they would continue uninterrupted. Western sanctions would cause only “insignificant drops and decreases” in how much oil Russia exports to India, and only “for a very brief time”, said Peskov, adding that Moscow possessed the technology to circumvent sanctions in the long run. As Modi and Putin sit down, mention of Ukraine will probably be limited to India’s repeated calls for peace, said analysts, emphasising that the Indian prime minister was unlikely to be able to move the needle in the global push for a halt to the war. “Yes Modi can speak to both Putin and Zelenskyy, but aside from asking both countries to talk to each other, India doesn’t have the leverage to make a difference on either side,” said Pande.

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Thursday briefing: ​Will the ramped up rhetoric of Reform bring about the demise of the Conservatives?

Good morning. The murmurs began in May, after the Conservative party’s extraordinary wipeout in the local elections: the 200-year-old Tory party, the most electorally successful party in British history, is dying. Nigel Farage, having broken the grip Britain’s two main political parties held over the country, claimed Reform’s gains were the “beginning of the end” for the Tories. Justine Greening, a former Conservative Cabinet minister, went further, writing in the Guardian that the party was as dead as Monty Python’s famous parrot. “It has ceased to be,” she said, decrying what she described as its strategy of trying to out-Reform Reform. This week, Farage ramped up his anti-Tory messaging and, according to the Financial Times, has been telling donors he expects Reform to do a deal or a merger with the Tories before the next general election. One donor told the FT Farage described an agreement as “inevitable”, despite staunch denials from both sides. On Monday, the Reform leader launched what the Telegraph called “his most significant attack” on the Tories to date, urging voters not to trust Kemi Badenoch – nor to forget that her party oversaw tax rises, spiralling welfare spending and net zero carbon emission rules. To untangle some of these attacks, why they might be resurfacing and whether they are accurate, I spoke to Guardian senior political correspondent Peter Walker and Giles Dilnot, the editor of ConservativeHome. Five big stories UK politics | The safety of patients at Blackpool Victoria hospital was affected because of a culture of systemic bullying and harassment among staff at what is one England’s most scandal-hit hospitals, a damning leaked report reveals. Ukraine | King Charles spoke directly of “Russian aggression” as he hosted Germany’s president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. After US talks with Vladimir Putin went nowhere, American and Ukrainian negotiators are due to meet in Florida on Thursday. UK news | Parents are considering legal action against a London nursery after a man who passed vetting to get a job there pleaded guilty on Wednesday to 26 offences of sexually assaulting toddlers in his care. Military | A report by the Kenyan parliament into the conduct of troops stationed at a British military base near Nanyuki town alleges human rights violations, environmental destruction and sexual abuse by British soldiers. Women’s Institute | The WI will no longer accept transgender women as members from April after the UK supreme court ruling in April. In depth: ‘They are saying the party is dead because they need that to be true’ Few would argue, even within the party themselves, that the Conservatives are in a good place. Though some remain “bullish”, Peter Walker says some MPs have confessed the Tories are “in a death spiral”. In a piece for ConservativeHome yesterday, Giles Dilnot argued that after assuming the Conservatives “would not and could not” fight back last year, Labour and Reform made separate “devil’s pacts” that they didn’t discuss but acted upon. “Labour would treat Reform as their only threat, and the ‘real opposition’ and Reform would ignore the Tories and tack left to support more public spending,” he wrote, “because ‘having beaten the Tories into oblivion’ their real target was Labour votes especially in the red wall’.” It was predicated on a few key arguments that were untrue, he said, including that the Tories hadn’t changed since 2024 – that they are the same as Labour, or trying to be the same as Reform. It worked for a while, he said, while anger at the last Tory government was raw, few policies were forthcoming and Badenoch was doing badly in her initial PMQs. But, he thinks, the Conservative party has changed. *** Are the Tories facing extinction? Currently, the Tories are hovering around 18% in some public opinion polls – “as bad as it’s ever been”, Peter says, and just a couple of percentage points away from being in fifth place. To that extent, they are in “big, big trouble”, he says. “You currently have polling when you have like, almost five parties have about 15 to 20% or something like that. We’ve never seen such atomisation before.” Dilnot agrees: “The Tories are not in a good position. But they are so definitely not dead. Labour and Reform trying to behave as if it was really just between those two has turned out to be strategically unsound.” *** Could it be counter-productive to claim the Tories are on the way out? Dilnot questions the reason behind the latest attacks on the party. “The Tories have got a mountain to climb, but the idea that they’re dead and therefore irrelevant poses the question: why would you bother if you really believed they were dead and out of the camp?” The more “pantomime” tactics employed by Farage and former party chair Zia Yusuf in declaring them dead, the further from the truth it gets, Dilnot thinks. “They are saying the party is dead because they need that to be true, and they need people to believe it to be true. It doesn’t make any sense, and it is, in fact, a tacit admission that that isn’t the case.” Instead, says Dilnot, “all it does is fire up people who are Tories and remain Tories to go: ‘All right, we’ll show you whether we’re dead or not.’” *** What about Badenoch’s changing reputation? Going into the Tory party conference this October, the popular assumption was that Badenoch could face a challenge, maybe after the local elections in 2026. Now, “Keir Starmer is more likely to go first”, says Peter. While the polling figures haven’t shifted that much, Peter says Badenoch has a “spring in her step”. Many Conservatives believe time is on their side. Her position has strengthened over time, said Peter, and she is doing better at PMQs than in the first nine months. “It’s partly the material she’s got to work with because the government are in a bit of trouble, but she’s found her mojo,” Peter says. The expectation of many Tories is that the “longer it goes on, the more people will look at Reform’s policies and have second thoughts”. “From that point of view, it will be interesting, because with more scrutiny, Reform have to come up with policies showing that they could actually run government,” Peter says. The party, which continues to have “big structural problems”, including the ageing profile of Tory voters, and a lack of activists and councillors, will be keen to hang on to Badenoch because of the chaos and “rats in a sack” reputation for infighting that put voters off the party in the 2024 general election. *** Deal or no deal? As for an electoral pact with Reform, “you won’t find a single Tory at the moment, who’s asking for this or discussing it”, says Dilnot. “Why would you sit down and do a deal with people who want to destroy you?” He says it’s also important to “not put aside the amount to which Nigel and Kemi do not get on”. Peter, returning to the “atomisation” debate, says we are in “uncharted” political territory where no one knows what will happen. “It is possible you could get a combination of Conservatives and Reform with enough MPs for a majority to form a government. Equally, you could have a situation where the only way to form a government would be a Labour, Lib Dem and Green coalition. No one really knows.” A formal coalition is a lot less attractive, given the experience of the Conservative-Lib Dem government in 2010. Instead, he says, we could end up with a “confidence and supply” arrangement, a political arrangement in which a minority government receives the support of one or more parties. For instance “where a party would say to another, well, we’ll broadly support you, and we’ll vote with you on things, but we won’t be formally part of the government”, Peter said. On this point, Dilnot refers to a recent survey ConservativeHome carried out with Conservative party members, which found that in the event Farage became prime minister, a large percentage thought a deal of some kind was inevitable. But he stressed: “What it doesn’t tell you is if that’s what they want.” What else we’ve been reading I don’t want to give any spoilers for the outcome, but Sam Wollaston has been out searching for wild wallabies in the UK. Martin Alaina Demopolous looks into a push to have free water provided in clubs in New York City, where a bottle can cost up to $12. Medics tell her it could make the difference between a safe night out and trip to the ER. Karen For the Quietus, Darran Anderson explores Rupert Hine’s soundtrack to 1978 horror The Shout, thoughtfully touching on the uncanny valley, the foley artist’s craft and why sound may accompany us longest in life. Martin She brought the house down as a stripper in Gypsy and starred in movies with Al Pacino and Jack Nicholson. Now, at 96, June Squibb is playing the lead in Eleanor the Great, Scarlett Johansson’s directorial debut. Karen I’m a sucker for big infrastructure projects and striking designs but Oliver Wainwright makes the case here that Norman Foster’s design for JP Morgan’s new HQ is “a bullying affront to the skyline” of New York. Martin Sport Football | Arsenal restored their five-point lead in the Premier League with a 2-0 win against Brentford, but Cristhian Mosquera and Declan Rice were forced off. Ao Tanaka, Jaka Bijol and Dominic Calvert-Lewin were on target in Leeds’ 3-1 win again Chelsea. More Premier League action. Cricket | The second Test has finally begun in Brisbane – follow live. Rugby union | Hosts Australia to face All Blacks in 2027 Rugby World Cup pool as a favourable draw against Wales, Tonga and Zimbabwe provides few potholes for England. The front pages “‘Bullying culture’ harmed patient safety at scandal-hit NHS hospital” says the Guardian. “Review will study rising diagnoses of ADHD” – that’s the Times while the Express decries “Starmer’s ‘mission to crush’ our high streets” which is about business rates. The Telegraph has “Police plan for face ID in every town” while the i claims an exclusive with “Russian spies secretly entering UK on cargo ships”. The Financial Times runs with “Bond investors warned US Treasury of risk in picking Hassett as Fed chair”. “Formula win!” – it’s a “Metro milk campaign victory” on the front of that paper which reports on an initiative to make baby milk more affordable. “Meghan’s father ‘fighting for life’” is the top story in the Mail. The Mirror runs with pictures from “Inside Epstein’s island lair” under the strapline “US paedo probe”. Today in Focus Zack Polanski on the Green party boom Three months into his leadership the Green party membership is surging. Randeep Ramesh explains why Cartoon of the day | Rebecca Hendin The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad London’s Smithfield meat market and Billingsgate fish market have found a new home – Albert Island, a former industrial site in London Docklands. This news comes after the City of London Corporation voted to permanently close the markets last year due to rising costs. The Greater London Authority has estimated the move would generate 2,200 jobs to Newham and £750m in local expenditure in one of the city’s most deprived boroughs. In June, the corporation said it had established a regeneration team to help find a new location for the meat and fish markets, amid plans to turn the markets into new homes and a cultural destination. For more than 800 years, Smithfield has been home to a food market. Two buildings on the site are being redeveloped, and the London Museum is scheduled to open the area in late 2026. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Martin Belam’s Thursday news quiz Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

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‘Embodying the zeitgeist more than ever’: German sitcom character Stromberg revived for Merz era

He’s the middle-manager who talks as if he’s the CEO, a beacon of workplace inclusivity in his own head but a bigoted chauvinist as soon as he opens his mouth. And listening to him creates a mix of familiarity and embarrassment-by-proxy that turns out to be surprisingly pleasurable. Ricky Gervais’s cringe-making general manager of a soul-destroyingly dull Slough-based paper merchant stopped being a regular presence on British TV over two decades ago, but the many comedic characters that he spawned across the globe have outlived him. In Germany, where a feature film based on a German sitcom inspired by The Office opens in cinemas on Thursday, some are even starting to suspect that their own David Brent is now leading the country. The mockumentary sitcom Stromberg launched on German TV in 2004, three years after the start of the British series; its makers denied it was based on the British show until the BBC threatened legal action. It ran for eight years, and the self-aggrandising wisdom of its titular character, Bernd “Let papa sort it” Stromberg, has proven inescapable on social media. German federal elections at the start of this year gave Stromberg meme culture a new lease of life, and not just because the slender physique and partial baldness of the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, resembles that of the office authoritarian played by the comedian Christoph Maria Herbst. “They are both boomers to the core and seem to lack any sensitivity to social cues,” said Lukas Lohmer, a German comedy writer for television. “The only difference is that Stromberg realises when he makes a faux pas and often corrects himself.” In recent weeks, Merz elicited fremdschämen (“vicarious embarrassment”), especially among younger Germans, when proclaiming during a trip to Angola how much he missed German bread, or when he asserted upon returning from Belém, Brazil, that “everyone was delighted to be back in Germany and to have left that place”. Like Stromberg, Merz is adamant that he treats women as equals, but cannot stop himself from making comments that seem to suggest otherwise. The Christian Democrat politician, whose cabinet’s top roles are all held by men, told a party conference in 2021: “If I really had a problem with women, then my daughters would have shown me a yellow card by now – and my wife wouldn’t have married me 40 years ago.” That remark formed part of a “Who said it: Merz or Stromberg?” quiz in the Frankfurter Rundschau newspaper earlier this year. Other comments included: “It’s all about equal rights until the ship starts sinking, and then it’s ‘women and children first’” (Stromberg) and “sheer coincidence that all the [meteorological] lows carry female names at the moment” (Merz). On Instagram and TikTok, accounts hashtagged #Strommerz have taken clips of Merz and dubbed them with the TV show’s theme tune, a jazz cover of Aphex Twin’s Flim. In one of them, the veteran conservative is joined in the Bundestag’s lift by a female politician from the Green party. “With us, things are moving upwards,” he greets her. “And now I’m joining you,” she responds. “That makes the lift a bit heavier,” says Merz, to awkward laughter from his entourage. As Herbst said this week: “Stromberg couldn’t have come up with a better line than that.” In this week’s episode of the podcast Schlag und Fertig, the comedian Fabian Köster could not contain his mirth as he presented his latest assortment of the chancellor’s Stromberg-isms: Merz playing to the camera as he waltzes into the chancellory for the first time, announcing: “Right, let’s take up the challenge”; Merz dressing down his social media team for making spelling mistakes on his teleprompter; Merz greeting the European parliament’s president, Roberta Metsola, with a flamboyant “Robertaaa”. “You have to say, it’s a completely different vibe than what we had with Olaf Scholz,” said Köster. Merz’s own spokesperson has conceded that at least in terms of his hairstyle, “the chancellor can presumably not reject the comparison”. In all other aspects, he insisted, “the office culture and conversational tone inside the chancellory are clearly different to that in the series”. While Stromberg takes the same workplace mockumentary format as the BBC show, the comedic tone and character traits of the protagonists differ in significant ways. “David Brent is at heart an entertainer who is desperate for applause,” said Lohmer. “Stromberg is an opportunist who yearns for an enviable career.” Whereas The Office is set inside a dead-end business, Stromberg plays out inside a more aspirational insurance firm, Capitol Versicherung AG. The German show is played more as a straight-up comedy and does not stray as far into kitchen-sink realism as Gervais’s and Stephen Merchant’s creation. Yet its plot lines are arguably bleaker, involving a suicide attempt and the death of a main character. “Out of the British, American and German versions of The Office, Stromberg is probably the darkest,” said Kai Hanno Schwind, an associate professor at Kristiania University College, Oslo, who wrote his doctorate on a comparison of the German and the British takes on the theme. “The Office is essentially about failure, and in the British context the biggest failure a character can experience is social embarrassment. In the German context, the biggest failure is not playing to the rules but not being able to subvert them properly either.” This predicament meant that while embarrassing, Stromberg was not always an entirely unsympathetic character, Schwind added. In the German show, there were moments when the audience was laughing not just at but with him. The new film, Stromberg – Wieder Alles Wie Immer (Everything as Usual Again), plays with this double-bind. Set on the eve of a televised reunion of the original cast of the documentary, it has Stromberg super-fans with glued-on goatees gather outside the TV studio and quote his most sexist lines at feminist protesters. Bernd Stromberg appears at first to have found a job at a modern company with shiny offices, though his role emerges as being little more than a marketing gimmick to teach employees about outmoded workplace practices. Yet when he suffers a breakdown on live TV, Herbst’s character is rehabilitated in the public eye. In one sequence, the film’s makers have secured the real-life general secretary of Merz’s CDU to endorse their protagonist with all his dinosaur attitudes. “He doesn’t get everything right, but at least he does it,” says Carsten Linnemann. “The joke about Stromberg was that he was past his his sell-by date even 20 years ago,” said Lohmer. “The scary thing now is that that means he is now embodying the zeitgeist more than ever.”

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Rockets, gold and the Foreign Legion: can Europe defend its frontier in the Amazon? | Alexander Hurst

Above me, a ceiling of rough wooden branches and tarp. To my right, an officer in the French Foreign Legion types up the daily situation report. In front of me a French gendarme named David is standing in front of a table full of large assault rifles, pointing out locations on a paper map. A generator hums. All around us, splotches of forest dot the hundreds of islands that make up the archipelago of Petit-Saut, a watery ecosystem three times the size of Paris. Except Paris is 7,000 kilometres away from where I am, in Guyane, or French Guiana, a department of France in South America, just north of the equator. The size of Portugal but with a population of only 300,000, French Guiana sends deputies to the Assemblée Nationale, votes for the French president and prices things in euros. Administratively, it is no different from Brittany, but this region is home to France’s longest land border – with Brazil – and Europe’s only space rocket launch site. The legacy of European colonisation of the “new world” means that France and the European Union are directly implicated in the fate of one of the world’s most critical havens for biodiversity. Here, in this unlikely fragment of the EU in the Amazon, global crises converge into a paradox: a microcosm of humanity’s failure to deal with the climate crisis and protect biodiversity, despite possessing all the data we need. From French Guiana’s Atlantic coast, the European Space Agency (ESA) launches satellites capable of observing the heating of the planet, the destruction of its forests, the collapse of its ecosystems. But what they see most clearly is the gap between what we know and what we do. Beneath the tree canopy of the Amazon rainforest, illegal gold mining has produced an ecological crisis that is poisoning French citizens. Yet even after two decades and nearly €1bn spent on the deployment of an armed mission involving the Foreign Legion, France cannot bring this activity to an end. The obstacle? A river called the Maroni, France’s border with Suriname, which cuts through sovereignty like a machete, leaving one of the most powerful countries in the world hamstrung. On one side, French and EU health and safety law; on the other, a toxic mining supply chain that operates just out of reach, and with impunity. Fortress Europe? Not here, not by a long shot. * * * ‘This is what we’re after,” David says, handing me a small plastic bottle with a yellow cap. When I grasp it, my hand drops from the weight: mercury is more than 13 times as dense as water. Banned since 2006, because of both the environmental and neurological damage it causes, the toxin is the primary reason why 200 gendarmes and 600-700 soldiers have been deployed in a controversial €55m-a-year military operation across French Guiana relaunched as Opération Harpie in 2008 by Nicolas Sarkozy, then president. The legionnaires, soldiers and gendarmes (French military-style police) are stuck in a loop of “seek, chase, seize, repeat” with small, often-armed groups of garimpeiros – economically desperate, mostly Brazilian, gold prospectors, who use enormous quantities of mercury in pursuit of their dreams of one day striking it rich. It takes me two hours by car from Cayenne, the capital, and then over an hour in a pirogue, a canoe-like vessel with an outboard motor, to arrive at Avant Poste 51 (AP-51), a makeshift jungle camp on one of the islands of Petit-Saut. This is where a detachment of two gendarmes and a dozen legionnaires from the 13ème DBLE string their hammocks every night. Now, I’m observing as they plan tomorrow’s mission. Yesterday, the garimpeiros heard the patrol boat’s motor and fled before the soldiers could get there, David tells me. To avoid that happening again, tomorrow morning he wants to go ahead quietly in a kayak, with the pirogue following a few minutes later. He looks around for feedback from the small group standing around me. They comprise the camp commander, a stocky Frenchman who tells me to call him Chief Nuri; Pavel, the legionnaire boat pilot or piroguier; a lieutenant in the gendarmerie and the other gendarme posted to AP-51. Operating on French soil, the legionnaires can only act with gendarmes present. “If we find a mining site, take my picture with whatever we seize,” Nuri says to me. I tell him that Harpie’s command have warned me not to photograph the faces of the famously secretive legionnaires – these men from anywhere and everywhere who, while in service with the French Foreign Legion, have no other nationality but the Legion itself. Legio Patria Nostra, as goes the motto of the oft-mythologised, elite military unit that has a history of being deployed to difficult places. The 13ème demi-brigade de Légion étrangère (DBLE) in particular, from its formation as part of the Free French forces in 1940, to Indochina in the run-up to the Vietnam war, Algeria in the 1950s and 1960s, and more recently the Sahel when Mali requested French assistance against jihadist groups in the desert in 2013. “To hell with that,” Nuri says. “I didn’t give the Legion the rights to my image. Take my picture. But not now, not when I’m sweaty and wearing Crocs.” The French army lieutenant, on the other hand, is definitely not wearing Crocs. His boots are polished, and the knots holding up his hammock are the expert kind with a name. He exudes order and discipline that contrast with the surprisingly laid-back nature of the legionnaires. We’re not to be messed with, their vibe seems to say. And so, to a certain point, we do as we please. With the sun beginning to set on the camp, there is just enough time left to clumsily string up my own hammock, shower in the lake (“All my men shower in the lake, so you too, no exceptions,” the lieutenant tells me) and eat dinner (chicken in a thin stew, cooked by two legionnaires from Nepal). During the night, a low rumble cuts the air like the forced breath of something possessed. In another era, I would think demons stalked the forest from somewhere across the reservoir lake. “Howler monkeys,” the lieutenant says, his hammock a few feet away, the knots perfect, his boots hung upside down on two wooden posts. There’s a humidity in French Guiana that seeps into everything – wood, concrete, skin. Morning beneath the tree canopy is already hot, and the night-time howler monkeys have been replaced with a low-level shriek: the high treble of whistling frogs and a cascade of insects. “L’hygiène, c’est important,” the lieutenant – clearly a stickler even in these unsanitary conditions – insists again as he steps away from his hammock to brush his teeth, his southern French accent as punchy as his obvious scepticism towards the knots I’m now fumbling to untie. By the camp’s dock, the legionnaires are loading bottles of drinking water into the pirogue. At the lieutenant’s insistence, they’re all wearing their standard-issue life vests – though by the end of the day, everyone, including me, has thrown them off because it’s just too hot. I climb in and we depart, trailing the kayak. “Drink, even if you don’t feel thirsty,” David tells me. Half an hour later, the pirogue nears the target spot; David and a legionnaire get in to the kayak and row away. Ten minutes later, another pirogue approaches in the distance, sees us, does a hasty about-face, and runs. Pavel guns the motor, but the other boat, with only three people on board, is lighter and faster. Eventually we find it, half-hidden and overturned, the remains of the garimpeiros’ would-be lunch bobbing in the water. As the legionnaires jump out of the pirogue to give chase on land, the lieutenant hands me a bulletproof vest and warns me to not break away from the single-file line. Several French soldiers have died since Harpie began in 2008, including two during a clash with miners in 2012, and another while crossing river rapids this year. And in 2022, the Guardian journalist Dom Philips was murdered, alongside indigenous rights advocate Bruno Pereira while reporting on mining, poaching and drug-trafficking in the Javari valley, in the Brazilian Amazon. In the jungle, there is no path. Someone at the front has a machete. Towards the back of the line, I sweat, stumble, try to keep up with the sometimes-run, sometimes-scramble. It’s pushing past 30C, which feels like even more in the humidity and the vest. Over an hour later, we’re back at the overturned pirogue. The legionnaires flip it over, confiscate the motor, tow it to a marsh, where we leave the miners’ boat and two soldiers – just in case the garimpeiros circle back. Then we are off to a different island to search on foot for the same group of prospectors. But for hours, there’s nothing more but a ceaseless sun and the overturned boat, which the legionnaires puncture holes in and sink. Returning to camp in the boat, I try to find out more about just who joins the French Foreign Legion in the 21st century, and why. Some are talkative, others are extremely guarded. The Legion has a reputation, at any rate, for taking people seeking to escape an old life and gain a new one. One of the Nepalis tells me he saw a documentary, and that the money is good. Another says the Legion was more accommodating of a hand injury than the Gurkhas. Paulo, a Brazilian, hit his time limit in the Forças Armadas do Brasil and wanted to keep working as a soldier, but won’t say much more. A legionnaire from Mali would rather tell me about the chilli peppers he’s planted at AP-51 than previous missions he’s been on. As for Chief Nuri, he’ll stay in the Legion as long as he can, he says. By the time we get back to AP-51, it’s near evening. I’ve had six litres of water, but despite thinking I’ve adhered to David’s morning advice, I have a headache anyway. I almost make it out with my dignity intact, but just before boarding the pirogue that will take me back to normal life, heatstroke drops me to my knees and I puke. “Don’t vomit in the pirogue,” the lieutenant says. I cringe. * * * The first French settlers of la France équinoxiale, as they called the colony, arrived in 1503. The colony then changed hands multiple times, with the Dutch bringing the first slaves in 1676 during a brief period of control. The French Revolution abolished slavery a century later in 1794, Napoleon brought it back in 1802 and the Second Republic reabolished it for good in 1848, freeing some 13,000 people in French Guiana. For a century, the territory was used by France as a prison colony, or dumping ground for politically inconvenient citizens. Captain Alfred Dreyfus was incarcerated in the notorious penal settlement of Devil’s Island, off the coast of Kourou, in 1895 after being convicted of treason. The ex-convict Henri Charrière’s 1969 account of brutality in the same jail in Papillon, a bestselling book later made into a film starring Steve McQueen, seared it into the consciousness of a generation. Perhaps the fame of the Île du Diable is why so many – including Jean Castex, the former French prime minister – still mistakenly think that French Guiana is an island. (The Cayenne-born jazz legend Henri Salvador probably did his birthplace no geographic favours when he released Dans mon Île in 1957.) The first, fevered gold rush engulfed the region in 1858, and 170 years on the prospectors’ extraction method has barely changed. They dredge sediments from riverbeds or boreholes, pump in water and add mercury, which binds to gold particles and forms an amalgam, which sinks. Then they sift out the pieces of amalgam, burn away the mercury to discard the slurry, and reveal a nugget of pure gold. Mercury vapour enters the atmosphere and the contaminated mud enters the water system and the food chain, causing serious health problems, and development issues in infants and children. Today illegal prospectors still number between 6,000 and 7,000, working across roughly 600 mining sites. In the eight months since AP-51 (one of many such camps) was established, the gendarmes and legionnaires have sufficiently suppressed illegal mining activity that it’s become tough to find. For Harpie’s commanders, “success” is in having “stabilised” mining at these levels, despite gold tripling in price since 2018. Others are less convinced. In 2020, a member of the French parliament representing the territory led an inquiry into why the illegal gold panning situation was still “such a disaster”, despite Sarkozy’s insistence nearly a decade earlier that stamping it out was a “national priority”. After a visit to the region a year later, a parliamentary delegation criticised the “insufficient” means allocated to enforcement. Far from Paris’s political squabbles, a question hangs heavier than mercury. With economic incentives to mine anywhere and everywhere, what kind of ecological devastation would there be without Harpie? But success and failure is also tallied in the real and present impact from mercury and mining – on the jungle, the river and the people who rely on both. * * * Aimé Césaire, a poet from Martinique and member of the French parliament, and Gaston Monnerville, the Guyanais grandson of a slave and former president of the French Senate, were among decolonisation activists who campaigned in the first half of the 20th century, not for independence for French Guiana, but for full status as a part of France. When the territory became a full French “department” in 1946 (along with Martinique, Guadeloupe and Réunion), it was the realisation of that long-held goal. In 2010, 70% of voters rejected a shift towards greater autonomy. And attachment to EU membership is stronger here than it is in most of France’s other regions. But income levels in the Amazonian department are only half of what they are in the “Hexagon”, the six-sided shape of France that sits on the European continent. This is roughly comparable to the ratio between the poorest and wealthiest US states, or between Paris and its most economically depressed banlieue. And often, the attitude from Paris towards French Guiana can feel like that of the core to the periphery: exacerbated by present-day plans to build, in this former prison colony, a new detention facility to house high-security inmates from metropolitan France. Within French Guiana, the core is the coast, where 90% of the population lives. In the Haut-Maroni region in the interior, the inhabitants are largely Bushinengue – the descendants of escaped slaves who fled Dutch and French plantations and established isolated, free communities deep in the jungle along the Maroni River. It feels like the periphery. * * * From the window of Air Guyane Express’s Czech-built, 15-seat turboprops, the Amazon rainforest looks like an enormous head of broccoli. Endless and indivisible. Except every now and then there appears a rust-coloured scar on its face: a pockmark of deforestation where the garimpeiros, the prospectors, have clearcut and savaged the earth, leaving it polluted and desolate. There are no roads to Maripasoula, a town of 8,000 on the Maroni River, but it has an airport. Getting farther south to Taluen, to find out how the Wayana community – one of French Guiana’s five original Amerindian populations – is affected by illegal gold mining means a journey by pirogue. This tough geographic reality shows up in prices: a bottle of water costs twice as much as in the capital, Cayenne. A Wayana man in a baseball cap waits at the river, next to a silvery pirogue. “Al-Qaida,” he says, hand outstretched, grin on his face, bemusement on mine. It is a nickname, I learn later, from his time in the French army, in Afghanistan. Once again, the sun blisters everything – but before I can burn too much, Marie Trémolet from the World Wildlife Fund arrives, along with two local fish-farming consultants and Aïmawale Opoya, the chief of Taluen, the largest Wayana town. Dry season has just begun, which means the water level in the Maroni is beginning to drop. In 2024, climate change made parts of this already shallow, rapids-filled river temporarily impassible, leaving the Wayana pincered between the macro polluting effects of carbon and the micro effects of mercury. Of the two, they feel the impact of the mining most keenly. “The garimpeiros have polluted everything,” says Aïmawale. “The rivers, the forest, the game, the fish.” Only a few minutes downriver from Maripasoula, nature erupts. Awara palms with their thick spikes. Iridescent blue flashes of morpho butterflies beneath the canopy. The red eyes of black caiman crocodiles that glower back flashlight beams in the night. Home to 1,800 tree species, 96% of French Guiana is rainforest. In fact, Maripasoula, Taluen and a host of other towns lie within the protected area of the Parc Amazonien de Guyane, the EU’s largest national park, which stretches across 34,000km2 – an expanse bigger than Belgium. When the reserve was created in 2007 with the agreement of French Guiana’s Indigenous populations, it was with the understanding that making this “protected land” would bring illegal mining to an end. Every now and then, Aïmawale and “al-Qaida” gesture towards the shore, pointing out signs of gold panning. Here, you can see and taste the destruction mercury wreaks in the Maroni River and the criques sprawling around it in the rusty, metallic quality it imparts to the water. As we swerve from one side to the next to navigate the river, I begin to understand why Operation Harpie is necessary, but sisyphean. The problem is that on the Suriname bank of the river, all of this happens in the open, unenforced. The equipment, the mercury, the sifting through and jettisoning of earth. The commercial supply points on the Surinamese side – there are 120 “storefronts” run by Chinese shopkeepers along the river, according to a 2023 estimate – make no effort to hide. Red metal walls and droopy porches overhanging the river, where groups of thin, bare-chested men sit drinking beer and liquor. Video displays show grids of rectangular video feeds from an assortment of security cameras. Rows of prepackaged foodstuffs sit alongside plastic goods made in China, with mining materials stuffed into corners. “The mercury is usually in a back room, out of sight,” Marie tells me. The storefronts don’t just sell equipment and purchase gold, they have recently moved into a “sharecropping” arrangement, taking a percentage of everything mined. From the pirogue, the Maroni looks murky with mining contamination. “Before, fish was the major part of our diet,” Aïmawale says. “Now, when it rains, the river looks like milk. We can’t let our children bathe or swim in that …” Wayana communities have to venture further and further to find clearer water and fish that they hope are less contaminated. Sometimes, they brave the indignity of buying processed foods or chicken from the Chinese storefronts. It’s a situation that leads to “a fair amount of diabetes, hypertension, and otherwise poor health”, says Lisa Michard, a nurse who has worked at Taluen’s health clinic. If a new fish-farming project for Taluen goes well, fish will maintain its place in the Wayana diet, but in a way that is tragic adaptation, rather than a real solution. * * * In Taluen, we string our hammocks in the dimming light, my knots as amateur as ever. The first night we are served chicken; the second, fish. When we see the pot of fish, Marie and I exchange a glance and a grim half-laugh at the irony, though we know a single meal is relatively innocuous. Shortly after I arrived in Taluen, eight French cities, including Paris, announced that their public schools would no longer serve tuna in lunchrooms out of concern for mercury levels. As for the Wayana, the French regional health authority’s recommendation is to restrict fish consumption to no more than once a month. In 2024, Linia Opoya, who is married to Aïmawale, brought a lawsuit against the French government, alleging that France had failed its legal duty to protect citizens and the environment. The health problems that plague the community range from learning disabilities to memory loss, concentration problems, damaged eyesight, pins and needles in the limbs, and a loss of physical strength, she says. Later, in Taluen’s communal tukusipan, Patrick Touenké, chief of all the Wayana, gets visibly frustrated when I ask him about the mining. “We’ve been talking about the mining situation forever and nothing changes,’ he says, with the tukusipan’s maluwana – an intricately painted disc that maps Wayana cosmology – looking down from above him. 2009 was the last time the Wayana confronted the miners directly, with barricades on the river. That was just after the French government launched Harpie, which Aïmawale – who has himself participated in Harpie missions in the past as a reservist in the gendarmerie – calls “insufficient”. Linia goes further. “Harpie destroys the miners’ equipment, then two days later the miners are back,” she says. For three or four days after a mission, the water clears up, and then the miners resupply on the Surinamese side of the river and restart. What’s needed are regular patrols of the river, she says, and a permanent Harpie presence in the area – something like AP-51. “I grew up drinking from the river,” Linia reminisces – a relationship with the natural surroundings that her 15-year-old son will never know. Even if all gold mining stopped tomorrow, experts from the national park told me, each contaminated Amazon waterway would take 200 years to return to its former state. On my final night in Taluen, as I adjust my body in my hammock, something cuts through the quiet, the peace, the calm, the wisp of the Milky Way. Not a howler monkey this time, but an insect. It sounds almost precisely like a buzzsaw. * * * A burst of light in the dark. I watch, as 5km from the viewing site, the Ariane 6 rocket lifts off, steadies, streaks upwards above its launchpad. Twenty seconds after the earth seems to exhale a new sun, the sound hits – as if the air itself were ripping. The Ariane 6 programme represents Europe’s independent access to space, and this particular rocket carries a meteorological satellite over a decade in the making: Metop-SGA1. Primarily a weather satellite, SGA1 also carries a compact moral proposition, a collection of sensors called Sentinel-5, designed to see what human beings have become so good at ignoring. Methane slithering out of oil and gas fields, carbon dioxide stewing above continents, the exhaust of our species. It was Charles de Gaulle who decided to build a spaceport in Kourou in 1964, to replace France’s former launch site at Hammaguir, in the Algerian desert. With Algerian independence approaching, Kourou, another former penal settlement, offered advantages: at the equator, the Earth’s rotation naturally assists a rocket’s boosters, and provides both a launch trajectory over open ocean rather than inhabited land and stable weather conditions. Now jointly managed by the French space agency and ESA, the spaceport anchors thousands of jobs directly and indirectly, and accounts for at least 15% of the departments’s GDP. In 2021, this is where the ESA sent the James Webb space telescope – which astronomers are using to hunt for new planets and look further back in time, by seeing fainter and more distant light than anything else on or of the Earth – into orbit around the sun. Near Kourou, at Paracou research station, researcher Ariane Mirabel stands in front of a towering tree with a buttressed trunk. This arbre cathédrale has been tagged, measured, and will be measured again every one, two or five years, just like 70,000 other trees on various plots of land at Paracou. It’s the most extensive tree-identification and tracking project in the world, and ESA satellites need the data to estimate the quantities of carbon stored in the forest. This rainforest that I’ve seen from the air and from pirogues, whose humidity I’ve felt on foot, is part of the Guiana Shield – a swathe of the Amazon that stretches from Colombia to French Guiana and northern Brazil, and which is crucial to moistening, lifting and steering the atmospheric “rivers” that form over the Atlantic and move south to the Andes. The portion of forest that lies in French Guiana is among the least disturbed by human activity in the world, explains Mirabel, in part because of how few people live there. What the canopy data says about the immense Amazon rainforest is grim. A year ago things were dire, but perhaps bending towards hope. The EU had been leading the way in emissions reductions; China, long a source of emissions growth, was also the driver of the energy transition towards wind and solar; and in the US, the Biden administration had finally shifted national policy in support of real progress. Cop30 brought negotiators to Belém, to the edge of a rainforest under assault in every imaginable way: carbon emissions, clearcutting for soy and cattle, access roads for drilling sites, poaching, logging, illegal mining. On our current climate crisis trajectory, in the near future the Amazon will cross a tipping point and dry out into a savannah. That would cause the forest to release nearly a decade’s worth of carbon, turn millions of square kilometres into a probable fire plain, unleash new potential pandemics and devastate South American agriculture. The Earth and its forests inhabit a timescale beyond our own, and so none of us – not our children, our grandchildren, or their grandchildren – will ever see this reversed. Forget recreating any of this, says Mirabel, when “we don’t even understand how the existing forest fully works”. From Sentinel-5’s elliptical circuit 832km above the Earth, borders look meaningless. On the ground, they’re anything but. For years, France has sung the refrain of “strategic autonomy” to its European neighbours, insisting that the EU acquires the ability to act with full independence in any number of domains, including space. Ariane 6 is a key component of this – autonomous access to space at a time when Donald Trump’s war against renewables and on behalf of fossil fuels is a war on our ability to even know. At a time when his administration is preparing to order that Nasa terminate the US government’s only satellites purposefully designed to measure greenhouse gases, the EU, which spends €12bn a year on space, has an additional responsibility to collect and safeguard climate data, says Simonetta Cheli, ESA’s director of Earth observation. ESA can track methane plumes, calculate carbon stored in the forest, or even spot the clearcut scar of a mining site – but nobody seems able to put a stop to the 20 pirogues a day that, Linia Opoya says, pass by Taluen loaded with mining equipment. Sovereignty is double-edged: in Kourou, France invokes it at both a national and European level every time a satellite lifts off and into orbit. On the banks of the Maroni, the same principle impedes France from tackling a problem that stretches from one sovereign space into another. On the other hand, is France, with the full weight of the EU behind it, really incapable of putting a stop to the mining supply chain violating one of its borders and putting its citizens at risk? During its most recent overflight, the Parc Amazonien, which draws 70% of its personnel from Amerindian communities, observed 176 mining sites – the highest number yet – within its territory. “On one side, we have a powerful, cooperative neighbour, and on the other side, a narco state,” says Yann Saliou, deputy director of the park. Without cooperation from Suriname, he continues, ending mining along the Maroni would require a gendarme behind every tree. For decades we’ve had the data, and the best recommendations of scientists; we know that we’re destroying something that exists beyond our brief human timescale. From high above and far away, the world is blue and green. On the ground, we attribute enormous value to a shiny metal with little intrinsic utility, while being systematically incapable of valuing and protecting the ecosystems that sustain us. If conflicting sovereignty can’t be coordinated across a waterway often narrow enough to hurl a stone from one side to the other, what chance is there that the view from 832km up – no matter how precise – will save what is already slipping away? Alexander Hurst writes for Guardian Europe from Paris. His memoir Generation Desperation will be published in January 2026

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‘I’m rapt!’: meatball chants but no mania as New Zealand assembles for first Ikea store

“I’ve been waiting 25 years for this,” says Annie Sattler. A quarter of a century after she emigrated from Germany, and seven years since the store was first announced, Sattler was prepared to wait just a few hours extra to be among the earliest through the doors of Ikea’s first outlet in New Zealand. She was joined by hundreds of shoppers queueing on Thursday morning to mark the end of the national waiting game. Ikea was founded more than 80 years ago – and now has more than 400 stores worldwide – but the Swedish furniture giant had until now been absent from these shores, making New Zealand one of the last developed nations to get a store. Sattler, who grew up with family trips to Ikea to furnish her childhood bedroom, says the opening event reminds her of home. “It was such a treat. I loved it – the staff, the furniture, the whole story of it.” The store was announced in 2018, with foreign minister Winston Peters at the time taking credit for the move, saying he was sure his decision to open an embassy in Stockholm had played a part. By Thursday, excitement had reached fever pitch, with one local media outlet running a live blog and signs appearing along major roads warning motorists to “plan their journey” accordingly. By 9am, solid lines had formed at the two main entrances, although one queue member, there for the spectacle more than the shopping, described it as “a bit of a fizzer”. However, others said they would have camped overnight if it hadn’t been banned in advance, and Ulla Bennet – wearing a Denmark football jersey under her Swedish flag throw – was at the front, having established a “pre-line” outside the property boundary at 4am. “We thought it would be like it is now at 6am, but people didn’t really start arriving until six or seven,” she says. In the end, the long-promised traffic jams failed to materialise, but a steady stream of shoppers continued to arrive as the 11am opening neared. As local media assembled, beaming their reports live into morning TV, the awaiting customers spoke of their excitement to try Ikea’s iconic meatballs, with one group chanting “meatballs, meatballs” at a nearby reporter. ‘New Zealand is always the last to get anything’ Bennet sees the opening as a sign of global recognition. “New Zealand is always the last on the list to get anything. Every other country gets things but [companies] think ‘Oh, they’re little and way down there’. But they’re here! I’m rapt!” The opening is a significant event for a country grappling with a sharp cost of living crisis. Ikea’s global pitch of affordability lands amid a squeeze on household budgets, with year-on-year Black Friday spending having fallen by 4-6%. Keen to amplify any whiff of economic optimism, New Zealand prime minister Christopher Luxon arrived to cut the ribbon. As the doors opened, Luxon, who was meant to be the first customer, lost the honour to a faster shopper. The crowds were greeted by staff in bright yellow T-shirts who alternated between genuinely enthusiastic cheering and well-practised chants of “Hej! Hej! Hej!”. The sight of shoppers piling trolleys high with cushions, lamps, and storage solutions suggests that for many, the novelty and promise of value outweighed the wider economic gloom, at least for today. The company has signalled competitive pricing, with its Billy bookcase advertised at NZ$99 (£43), undercutting most local competitors. After the initial rush, Luxon denied the opening was a slap in the face for local small business owners, many of whom are struggling in a stalled economy. He told journalists it was “great for competition and great for consumers” and he was confident local businesses would “stand up and compete”. The launch’s scale is a statement of intent, with a full online shopping network and 29 collection points from Kaitaia in the North Island to Invercargill down south. But for a nation accustomed to waiting, the era of Swedish self-assembly has, finally, begun.