From stalemate to strikes: A dizzying week of US-Iran negotiations over the strait of Hormuz
It has been a week of dizzying, whiplash news in the Iran war. Seven days ago, the US-Iran ceasefire was holding but negotiations seemed stalled, or inching forward at best. With the strait of Hormuz effectively choked off by Iran, and the US Navy blockading Iranian ports, there was talk of a one-page memorandum being passed between Washington and Tehran to break the stalemate. Where are we now?
Friday, 1 May
Iran ceasefire holds as war powers deadline expires
The month begins with the US-Iran ceasefire still in place. With a war powers deadline looming, which would put pressure on Donald Trump to end the war or make the case to Congress for extending it, a Trump administration official declares that US hostilities against Iran have been “terminated”, citing the ceasefire. Meanwhile, Iranian state media reports Tehran has handed a new peace offer to Pakistan, to pass on to Washington. Trump says he is not “satisfied” with the terms of the deal, which aren’t specified. “Right now, we have talks going on, they’re not getting there,” he says. Adding some spice to the day, the Pentagon announces plans to pull 5,000 troops from Germany. Fuel prices across the US hit a four year high.
Saturday, 2 May
All quiet on the strait of Hormuz
Trump tells a Florida rally that the US navy acted “like pirates”, while describing a recent US operation to seize an Iranian ship. “We … land on top of it and we took over the ship. We took over the cargo, took over the oil. It’s a very profitable business,” Trump says, in remarks reported the following day. A barrel of Brent crude trades for about $110, down from more than $126 a few days earlier.
Sunday, 3 May
Project Freedom launched by Trump and the US
With the ceasefire, agreed on 7 April, seemingly at a stalemate, Trump says the US will launch a new effort to help guide stranded ships out of the strait. Trump calls the plan Project Freedom. Trump gives few other logistical details. Later, US Central Command provides some clarification, indicating the US role is to coordinate and guide trapped vessels, not to escort ships using US naval assets.
Trump claims his representatives are engaged in “very positive” discussions with Iran, as the US blockade of Iran’s ports continues. Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the national security commission of the Iranian parliament, responds to Project Freedom with a warning: “Any American intervention in the process of the new Strait of Hormuz maritime system will be considered a violation of the ceasefire.”
Monday, 4 May
Ominous start to Project Freedom
As the US operation begins, Hormuz crackles into life. The US military says its forces have destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted Iranian cruise missiles and drones, which Iran denies. After weeks of respite, the United Arab Emirates says it has again come under attack from Iranian missiles and drones, which again Iran denies. An angry Trump threatens that Iranian forces will be “blown off the face of the earth” if it attacks US vessels trying to reopen the strait. Brent crude rises to $114 a barrel.
Tuesday, 5 May
Mixed messaging, and Project Freedom paused
US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, is joined by Gen Dan Caine, the chair of the joint chiefs of staff, at a Pentagon briefing. Hegseth says the US has successfully secured a path through the strait and that hundreds of ships were lining up to pass through. “We know the Iranians are embarrassed by this fact. They said they control the strait. They do not,” he says. Caine acknowledges Iran has fired at commercial vessels and seized two container ships since the ceasefire was announced. But he says all the Iranian attacks have fallen below the threshold of restarting major combat operations.
Later, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, tells a White House briefing the initial major US military operation against Iran has concluded. “The operation is over,” he says. “Epic Fury … We’re done with that stage of it.” Rubio says the US is now focused on Project Freedom. Hours later, an abrupt change of plan. Trump announces Project Freedom has been paused, just one day after it began. Trump writes the plan is on ice for “a short period” to give space for peace negotiations with Iran. The volte-face, he says, comes as “Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran”. After Trump’s pullback, oil dips to about $109. Iran’s state broadcaster describes the latest US effort as a failure.
Wednesday, 6 May
A one-page memorandum and peace hopes
Axios reports Washington and Tehran are close to agreeing on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war. It says the US expected Iran to respond to several key points in the next 48 hours. Officials in Pakistan tell the Guardian talks remain “difficult”. Trump logs on to Truth Social. “Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is perhaps a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end,” he writes. “If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.”
Soon after, the US military fires on an Iranian-flagged oil tanker. Iran’s most senior negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, responds defiantly on Telegram. For the first time in weeks, Brent crude briefly drops below $100, before settling about $101.
Thursday, 7 May
Unhappy Saudis, and US and Iran trade fire in strait
A possible explanation for Trump’s sudden pause of Project Freedom emerges. NBC reports Saudi Arabia was so unhappy about the US operation that it told Washington the US would no longer be welcome to use a key airbase or fly planes through its airspace. Trump failed to win over the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, on a phone call, reports say. Brent crude drops to $96 amid reports out of Pakistan that the US and Iran are close to a temporary agreement to halt the war. “Both sides are now more amenable to suggestions, the distance between their proposals is reducing,” says a diplomat in Islamabad with knowledge of the negotiations. But hours later, US and Iranian forces trade fire in the strait. The US military says it intercepted Iranian attacks on three destroyers sailing in the strait. Iran’s state media, meanwhile, says Iranian forces exchanged fire with the US on Qeshm Island. Iranian media reports loud noises in western Tehran and southern Iran. In an interview with ABC News, Trump says the ceasefire remains “in effect”. He describes the skirmishes as “just a love tap”. In the hours after the strikes, Brent crude hovers above $101.