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Middle East crisis live: Trump says he wants to ‘take the oil’ in Iran and could seize Kharg Island ‘easily’

Spain, a Nato member, has closed its airspace to US planes involved in attacks on Iran, the country’s defence minister, Margarita Robles, told reporters in Madrid this morning. “We don’t authorise either the use of military bases or the use of airspace for actions related to the war in Iran,” she said. Spanish newspaper El Pais, which first reported the news on Monday, said the closure of the airspace forces military planes to bypass Spain en route to their targets in the Middle East, but it does not include emergency situations, in which case the aircraft will be permitted to transit or land. “We have denied the United States the use of the Rota and Morón bases for this illegal war. All flight plans involving operations in Iran have been rejected. All of them, including those for refuelling aircraft,” Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez, a vocal critic of the US-Israeli war on Iran, was quoted as having said last Wednesday in Congress. Military sources told El Pais that Spain is also denying airspace access to US aircraft stationed in third countries, including France and the UK. The US president, Donald Trump, has threatened to cut trade with Madrid for denying the American use of Spain’s bases in the war, which many legal experts agree was launched by the US and Israel in violation of international law.

How could US forcibly reopen strait of Hormuz and what are the risks?

The arrival of US ground invasion forces in the Middle East over the weekend provides Donald Trump with the muscle for a perilous attempt to forcibly open the strait of Hormuz, Iran’s biggest pressure point in the war. Iran’s chokehold on the strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil trade normally passes, gives Tehran leverage that Trump understands, sending oil prices rocketing to more than $100 a barrel. The US president has said he is prepared to give diplomacy a chance, though bombing of Iran continues. But he also said on Sunday that he wanted to “take the oil in Iran”. Trump has two military options to open the strait: seizing territory, or deploying a massive naval presence in the waterway. Even the limited ground incursion being considered risks the kind of body count that could sink a presidency, experts say. For Iran, boots on the ground would be a red line. Emma Salisbury, a senior fellow in the national security programme at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said she believed Trump would not be able to resist escalating the conflict by capturing one of the Iranian islands in the Gulf. “At every point so far he’s gone for it, and I can’t see this being any different. He will use the soldiers if they’re available,” she said. “I think that will go horribly wrong and there will be a lot of casualties.” Iran has sent a threat, according to mediators: it will carpet bomb its own territory to kill any American soldiers on its soil. Tehran warned that it is prepared to blow up its own infrastructure to hit the invading forces, according to diplomats involved. The speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, on Sunday accused the US of publicly seeking talks while planning a ground assault. “Our men are waiting for the arrival of the American soldiers on the ground to set them on fire and punish their regional allies once and for all,” said Ghalibaf, who is regarded as a likely Iranian representative if peace talks take place. Half of a contingent of 5,000 marines, specialised in amphibious landings, arrived in the Middle East on Saturday. About 2,000 paratroopers are also due to arrive. Kharg Island, a tiny Iranian outpost used as the country’s main oil export terminal, is the most obvious target. Seizing one or more small islands would be the easier part, though a force of this size would be spread thin, experts say. Once there, the danger would really begin as Iran would rain down rocket, missile and drone attacks. The numbers are far short of requirements for a significant land operation – about 150,000 troops were deployed in the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, and Iran’s territory is more than three times the size. US media reports said a third aircraft carrier was heading to the Middle East and that the administration was considering dispatching another 10,000 soldiers. Trump is also weighing a riskier and more complex mission: swooping into the Iranian mainland to seize the country’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, thought to be buried at one or more sites that were bombed last year. That would require special operations forces. “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump told the Financial Times. “It would also mean we had to be there [in Kharg Island] for a while.” Kharg is deep inside the Gulf, well past the strait of Hormuz, adding logistical difficulty and vulnerability for US soldiers. Sitting in the strait itself is a series of Iranian islands that command the waterway, the largest of which is Qeshm. Three of the smaller islands, Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb, claimed by the United Arab Emirates, provide the backbone of Iran’s hold over the channel. Ruben Stewart, a senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the deployment may just be a show of force to strengthen the American negotiating position, as it would be tough to hold any island for more than a few days. “It is feasible that they could land on some of those locations,” he said. “It seems extremely unlikely that could achieve anything in a military sense.” Ground operations may not end the Iranian threat anyway. To open the strait for navigation, while attacks on ships continue, would require naval escorts for commercial vessels along with minesweeping and air support. That mission would need so many warships that the US would have to lean on allies such as the UK and European nations. The US is short of minesweepers in particular. So far, its military says it does not have the resources to guard commercial ships. The challenge could be about to multiply. Iran-allied Houthi forces in Yemen entered the conflict on Saturday, firing missiles at Israel. They could begin attacks on vessels passing the narrow strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, another crucial shipping route in the Middle East, leaving the US with two waterways to secure.

Monday briefing: Has the single-use vape ban made any difference to our health or our environment?

Good morning. They seemed to come from nowhere: millions of multicoloured plastic contraptions, each producing a plume of sweet-smelling steam. Love them or loathe them, vapes are now an inescapable part of life in the UK – 5.4 million adults are now vaping daily or occasionally in Great Britain, according to ONS figures. To advocates, vapes and e-cigarettes contribute a massive public health benefit by helping people to avoid the toxins and tar that come with tobacco smoking, a major cause of cancer and other health conditions. But detractors caution that they can be equally as addictive, with long-term health outcomes still being studied. Vapes have also been an environmental mess – with millions of single-use devices made from plastic and cheap lithium-ion batteries thrown into landfill. In June last year, the government banned the sale of single-use vapes as part of efforts to stem the buildup of waste and litter – and curb vaping in young people. For today’s newsletter, I spoke with Sarah Marsh, the Guardian’s consumer affairs correspondent and a former vaper, about how the disposable vape ban is going. First, the headlines. Five big stories Middle East | Iran has warned the US that it is prepared to confront any ground assault, accusing Washington of secretly planning a land attack while publicly seeking talks. Politics | Keir Starmer will launch Labour’s local elections campaign by saying that a vote for Reform UK will put at risk progress his government is making on the cost of living, arguing that Britain’s values are being tested in a volatile world. UK news | A man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a car struck several pedestrians on one of Derby’s busiest streets. Religion | Pope Leo has said God ignores the prayers of leaders who wage war and have “hands full of blood”, in an apparent rebuke to the Trump administration. UK news | The NHS is set to miss key targets to shorten waiting times for help at A&E, cancer care and planned hospital treatment, leaving millions of patients facing persistently long delays. In depth: ‘The behaviour of a lot of vapers has not really changed’ Counting Angela Rayner, Kate Moss and Tom Hardy in their number, there are now more vapers than smokers in the UK, according to official figures. Vape shops selling weird and wonderful flavours like sour apple, peppermint and cherry cola have become a fixture of the high street. But today, retailers are only permitted to sell rechargeable and refillable devices – or face an initial £200 fine and product seizures. Repeat offenders face an unlimited fine or even jail time, under the law that went into force last June. So, is the ban working? On Friday, Sarah reported figures from the recycling campaign group Material Focus that found 6.3m vapes and pods are still being thrown away each week. While this represents nearly a quarter fall since the ban, suggesting it is having some impact, many waste companies say that the devices are still a major issue for them, with their batteries often the cause of fires in waste disposal centres. Disposable vapes are also still available on the hidden market. “It is quite a small reduction, really,” says Sarah. “What we are hearing from Biffa and other waste companies is that they still have a massive problem with the waste, and that has not really changed. There are still fires and people still dump rechargeable vapes and the pods.” “Remember, there were two goals: sorting out the environmental issues and curbing youth vaping. This data only really deals with one of those problems.” While there is no specific data collection for lithium battery-related fires in England and Wales, companies said that fires were a daily problem at their facilities, causing hundreds of millions of pounds of damage and risking the safety of their staff. From their point of view the ban has not worked, says Sarah. Waste companies say that rechargeable vapes are still too cheap, look disposable, and there has not been enough effort on behaviour change. “Back in the day when I was a vaper, I’d constantly lose my charging device. The disposable ones were just handy because they were cheap, you just whack them in your pocket and then you could just throw them away when you’re done. The behaviour of a lot of vapers has not really changed even with rechargeable vapes,” says Sarah. *** A ban in isolation is ineffective So, what to do? Waste companies would like to see much more effort around recycling, including a potential deposit reward scheme and changes to vape design and pricing that would make them less likely to be thrown away. Sarah says there is often poor awareness among vapers of the need to dispose of them in special waste bins, with others not realising that their device is actually even recyclable. “If you introduce a ban like this but you don’t put the support in place to achieve your goals, like making it easy for people to recycle, the ban isn’t necessarily going to work. A ban in isolation is ineffective,” she says. “France and Australia have taken similar measures in recent years. You could say it is too soon to evaluate some of the problems there but it’s already clear that it hasn’t eliminated the problem, it’s just created different issues. It seems like people are just dumping rechargeable vapes instead, and children are smoking more,” she says. *** Behaviour change is not easy The impact on children is more uncertain, says Sarah, amid rocketing rates of vaping among young people. In adults, vaping has been a useful tool to help active smokers. But in children, the World Health Organization warned in October that e-cigarettes were driving a new wave of nicotine use among children, who are nine times more likely than adults to vape. At least 15 million children vape worldwide, according to their figures. The UK government is conducting a large-scale study on the impact of vaping on children, with a quarter of 11 to 15-year-olds having tried it. But there is not yet clear evidence on whether the disposable vape ban is having any impact on their use among young people. “In short, disposables have driven the surge in youth vaping, and banning them should bring numbers down, but it won’t fix everything. Big tobacco companies are already set up to adapt fast and keep the next generation using nicotine. It won’t be easy,” says Sarah. A UK government spokesperson said that single-use vapes had got kids hooked on nicotine and blighted the high street, with rogue traders not facing serious penalties. They said they were determined for more vapes to be recycled and all retailers must provide recycling bins. What else we’ve been reading A sometimes harrowing read as Simon Hattenstone interviews a woman who escaped her controlling, cruel and sadistic mother who was bringing her up inside a twisted cult. Martin A fascinating article by neuroscientist Nobuko Nakano who argues that lucky people are running different neurological software to everyone else, and that this software can be installed. Katy Vans, newsletters team Moving abroad somewhere to be with the one you love sounds romantic and idyllic – unless you discover you don’t enjoy living in your new country. Elle Hunt speaks to people who faced exactly that issue. Martin Frances Ryan looks at the introduction of new assessments for the health element of universal credit which could deal another financial blow to disabled people. Katy Joe Bobowicz talks to people who are recovering from getting addicted to the deadly risks of a chemsex lifestyle. Martin Sport Football | Sjoeke Nüsken fired Chelsea back up to second place in the Women’s Super League with a dramatic late winner in a 4-3 victory over Aston Villa. Meanwhile West Ham and London City drew 1-1 and Leicester lost at home 0-1 to Brighton. Formula One | Drivers have called for urgent action given their serious concern over the potential dangers now inherent in the sport after Oliver Bearman was involved in a huge accident at the Japanese Grand Prix. Olympics | Caster Semenya, the South African two‑time Olympic 800m champion, says that the reinstatement by the IOC of sex verification tests for the 2028 Los Angeles Games was “a disrespect for women”. The front pages The Guardian leads with “‘Nothing left’: Parents tell of day US bombed Iran school”. The Times reports “PM to meet fuel bosses as fears grow over shortages”. The Financial Times has “Vulture funds say private credit woes offer ‘biggest opportunity since 2008’”. The Mirror has “Horror on the street”. The i has “Brexit visas for under-30s at risk as EU talks reach deadlock”. The Telegraph reports “Labour to ration NHS referrals to hit targets.” The Sun looks at the failure of police to investigate burglaries, under the headline “Broken-in Britain”. Finally the Mail has “Betrayal of the strivers”. Today in Focus UK’s big, risky AI bet Reporter Aisha Down explores the UK’s ‘phantom investments’ in AI, and the risk the government has taken in betting so heavily on the technology if it all goes bust. Cartoon of the day | Tom Gauld The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad When Mark, a pensioner, bought a secondhand car it began overheating, and several mechanics failed to diagnose the issue. After trying inexpensive fixes suggested on online forums, the likely culprit was the radiator, but the carmaker’s $1,200 (about £600) quote was unaffordable for him. When Mark expressed his concern about buying a cheaper radiator that might not do the job online, a stranger from that forum unexpectedly offered to buy it for him. It worked perfectly, saving Mark from potential financial disaster and helping keep him mobile. A year on, the radiator still runs well, and the experience restored Mark’s faith in humanity and has made him more open to paying it forward himself. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

Who are the Houthis – explained in 30 seconds

The Houthis are a militant group that emerged from a years-long civil war in Yemen as the country’s most powerful political force, able to disrupt international trade thanks to their proximity to a key shipping corridor at the entrance of the Red Sea. The group, which has an estimated 20,000 fighters, represents the Zaidi branch of Shia Islam. The Houthis first began gaining mass support around the turn of the century from Shia Yemenis fed up with corruption and authoritarian leaders. The Houthis captured the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, in 2014 and a year later overthrew the western-backed president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Hadi was forced to flee, but his allies in Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched a military campaign, also backed by the west, to drive out the Houthis. The ensuing civil war led to an estimated 377,000 deaths and displaced 4 million people by the end of 2021. The UN brokered a 2022 truce between the warring sides in Yemen that has largely held. As a part of Iran’s “axis of resistance”, the Houthis began targeting international shipping in the Red Sea after the 7 October 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, which triggered the Israeli military campaign in Gaza. The Houthis’ campaign in the Red Sea – a major thoroughfare for world trade – brought chaos to global supply chains. The Houthis ceased their attacks after a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in October 2025. While the US says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis, the group denies being an Iranian proxy, but say they share a political affinity. The group was largely silent in the early weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran, but on 28 March fired missiles at Israel, vowing to continue military operations until Israel “ceases its attacks and aggression”.

Malnourished children and desperate mothers: the healthcare facility on the frontline of Nigeria’s hunger crisis

Zuwaira Hanafi stood in shock as four doctors rushed past her to enter the ward where her eight-month-old daughter, Hambali, lay semiconscious. At the entrance to the healthcare facility in Kaita community in Nigeria’s northern Katsina state, medical personnel were using colour-coded tape to measure the diameter of children’s arms and determine their levels of malnutrition. A steady stream of mothers, some as young as 15, filtered through with children, many of them, like Hambali, arriving in a critical state. Zuwaira Hanafi watches over eight-month-old Hambali as she is treated for acute malnutrition The children are victims of an unprecedented hunger crisis gripping vast swathes of Nigeria. The Red Cross has warned that up to 33 million Nigerians could face severe hunger this year, a record figure. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, about 6.4 million Nigerian children are expected to be acutely malnourished by the end of 2026, the majority in the north. According to Dr Soma Bahonan, the head of the Nigeria mission at the Alliance for International Medical Action (Alima), which runs the Kaita facility alongside local officials, increasing numbers of mothers are also presenting with acute malnourishment. Clockwise from top left: a family walks through the front gate of the Alima medical facility in Kaita; a woman sits waiting for her child to be weighed.; a medical worker stands between two rows of hospital beds at the Alima medical facility; a medic reviews documents. Locals say the 80-bed facility, funded by Alima and its donors since it was established in 2021, has been a lifesaver for people living nearby. Last year, its malnutrition programme treated more than 36,000 children Alima also supports mobile clinics that can reach children whose families are unable to travel to Kaita, and can even facilitate transport to the facility from the surrounding area. But it faces an impossible challenge. Katsina state is at the centre of the intergenerational hunger crisis in Nigeria, where longer-term drivers of food insecurity, such as climate shocks and poor governance, have recently been exacerbated by a rise in attacks by jihadists and other non-state actors that have prevented access to some communities, as well as aid funding shortfalls. Across the country, the doctor-to-patient ratio is roughly 1:9,000, far less than the 1:600 recommended by the World Health Organization. Thousands of doctors are fleeing abroad, citing late payment of their meagre salaries. Digital health startups and private-sector partnerships have made inroads in big cities such as Lagos and Abuja, but not elsewhere due to infrastructure shortcomings and inflation. The outpatient waiting area of the Alima medical facility “Nigeria remains in a polycrisis: an economic/cost of living crisis, a security crisis, a human capital development crisis, a human development crisis,” said Joachim MacEbong, a senior analyst at the Lagos office of Control Risks, a risk consultancy. “All four feed on and amplify each other.” Bahonan said that “even with the results we’re seeing in Kaita, the wider situation is very concerning”. In nonprofit circles, strategising has begun to combat enhanced risks during the upcoming lean season, which runs from June to September. Last year, the Nigerian government partnered with the World Bank to provide basic nutrition packages to millions of vulnerable households under the Accelerating Nutrition Results in Nigeria project. The second phase is now under way. Still, experts say more needs to be done to increase food affordability for vulnerable households and social protection alongside sustained investment in maternal nutrition. Key to this is fixing the supply chain for drugs and equipment. Peter Bunor Jr, cofounder and head of growth at Field Intelligence, a health-tech company working on pharmaceutical supply chains in Africa, said this requires “grappling with changes [that are] happening globally”. A mother and daughter at the Alima medical facility in Kaita “For everyday people, this [dire supply chain situation] translates into travelling long distances only to find that the drug they need isn’t available, or substituted with whatever is accessible, often at great cost,” he said. “What makes this especially acute during a hunger crisis is the compounding effect: malnutrition weakens immune systems, increasing demand for treatments at exactly the moment supply chains are most strained.” In 2018, Field Intelligence launched the Nigeria Health Logistics Management Information System, the country’s first such system, to track data relating to the pharmaceutical supply chain for public health initiatives. Unicef recently joined the platform, which is now managed by the health ministry, and Bunor hopes more organisations follow suit “so shortages can be anticipated and addressed before they become crises”. Aid workers are also holding out hope that the health sector – at the sharp end of foreign aid cuts – gets more attention from the Nigerian government soon. Clockwise from top left: a whiteboard lists monthly patient statistics, including admissions, transfusions, deaths and referrals, at the Alima facility in Kaita; women sit and wait outside a building at the facility; a young man sits outside in a waiting area; three women sit on hospital beds with children at an Alima facility. In the 2025 federal budget, the health sector was allocated only roughly about 5.2% of the total 47.9tn naira budget. For years, the budget has hovered below the 15% Abuja Declaration target agreed on by member nations of the African Union. It is one of the lowest per capita spends on health across the continent. Anisa Sayadi, two – one of hundreds of children receiving malnutrition and paediatric care In February, Nigerians were shocked when the health minister, Muhammad Ali Pate, lamented that of the 218bn naira (£119.6m) budget allocated for operations and capital projects supervised by the ministry headquarters, only 36m naira (£9,751) – just 0.0165% – was released. “It’s a figure that tells its own story,” MacEbong said. “There are saloon cars from 2023 that are more expensive.”

Israel expands invasion of southern Lebanon – as it happened

This live blog has now closed. Our coverage of the US-Israel war on Iran and the wider crisis in the Middle East continues here.

Iran accuses US of plotting ground assault while publicly seeking talks

Iran has warned the US that it is prepared to confront any ground assault, accusing Washington of secretly planning a land attack while publicly seeking talks, as the war that has killed thousands of people and caused the biggest ever disruption to global energy supplies entered its second month. In a message published to mark 30 days since the start of the war, the Iranian parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said: “The enemy signals negotiation in public, while in secret it plots a ground attack.” “Our firing continues,” Ghalibaf said. “Our missiles are in place. Our determination and faith have increased.” He said Iranian forces were “waiting for the arrival of American troops on the ground to set them on fire and punish their regional partners for ever”. In an interview published on Sunday night, Donald Trump did little to assuage those concerns, telling the Financial Times that his “preference would be to take the oil” in Iran, and saying of Iran’s crucial export hub on Kharg island: “We could take it very easily.” The newspaper also quoted Trump as stressing that, despite his threats to seize Iranian oil production, indirect US-Iran talks via Pakistani “emissaries” were progressing well. Asked whether a ceasefire deal could be reached in the coming days that would reopen the vital strait of Hormuz, Trump declined to offer specific details, saying: “We’ve got about 3,000 targets left – we’ve bombed 13,000 targets – and another couple of thousand targets to go. A deal could be made fairly quickly.” As efforts to find a negotiated conclusion to hostilities inched forward with a meeting of regional powers in Pakistan, there were signs of further escalation over the weekend as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis entered the conflict for the first time and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said his country was widening its invasion of southern Lebanon. The Israeli air force later said it had intercepted two unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Yemen, and the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon (Unifil) said a peacekeeper was killed when a projectile exploded at one of its positions near the southern Lebanese village of Adchit al-Qusayr on Sunday. Another peacekeeper was critically injured, Unifil said early on Monday. “We do not know the origin of the projectile. We have launched an investigation to determine all of the circumstances,” it added in the statement. The Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, US officials have told the Washington Post, as thousands of American soldiers and marines arrive in the Middle East. Any US ground operation would probably stop short of a full-scale invasion, instead relying on raids by special operations forces and conventional infantry, according to reports on contingency planning. But even a limited mission could expose American troops to Iranian drones, missiles, ground fire and improvised explosives. Among the options reportedly being discussed are the seizure of Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, and raids on coastal sites near the strait of Hormuz to destroy weapons threatening commercial and military shipping. Axios and the Wall Street Journal have reported that the Pentagon is also considering sending another 10,000 troops to the region, alongside a broader bombing campaign. The White House has sent mixed signals, alternating between talk of de-escalation and threats of a wider war. Karoline Leavitt, the press secretary, said Pentagon planning was intended to give Trump “maximum optionality”, not to signal a final decision. The Post said whether Trump would approve plans for deploying ground troops remained uncertain. Trump said on Sunday that the US-Israel war had achieved regime change in Iran, even as he assured that he would “make a deal” with the Iranians. “I think we’ll make a deal with them, pretty sure … but we’ve had regime change,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One, citing the number of Iranian leaders killed in the month-long war. He said: “We’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before. It’s a whole different group of people. So I would consider that regime change.” Photos published on Sunday showed a US command and control aircraft that had been destroyed at an airbase in Saudi Arabia. On Friday a US official told Reuters that 12 US personnel had been wounded in an Iranian military attack on the base. In an apparent rebuke of the Trump administration on Sunday, Pope Leo said God ignored the prayers of leaders who waged war and had “hands full of blood”. The pontiff made the comments days after the US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, prayed for violence against enemies who deserved “no mercy”. The war that began on 28 February shows no sign of de-escalation despite renewed diplomatic efforts. Pakistan, seen as a potential mediator between Washington and Tehran, hosted a four-way meeting with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt on Sunday, a day after the Pakistani prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, spoke with the Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, said on Sunday evening that Pakistan would soon host talks between the US and Iran. “Pakistan is very happy that both Iran and the US have expressed their confidence in Pakistan’s facilitation,” Dar said in a televised speech, adding that the talks would take place in the “coming days”. There was no immediate confirmation from the US or Iran. Last week the US presented Iran with a 15-point ceasefire proposal, including reopening the strait of Hormuz and curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme, but Tehran has rejected the plan and offered alternatives. Tehran has refused to admit to holding official talks with Washington but has passed a response to the 15-point plan via Islamabad, according to an anonymous source cited by the Iranian Tasnim news agency. The Houthis claimed two missile launches at Israel on Saturday, their first attacks on Israel since the start of the conflict. The group poses a potential new threat to global shipping if it again targets vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb strait off the Red Sea, through which about 12% of the world’s oil trade typically passes. A shutdown of the strait would amplify the already grave impact of the war on the global economy, and could also reignite a Saudi-Yemen conflict that caused huge humanitarian suffering for seven years before a 2022 truce. Since the US-Israeli attack on Iran on 28 February, Saudi Arabia has been able to divert some of its oil exports by pipeline to the Red Sea. Saudi commentators have said that if this route is also threatened, Riyadh could enter the war directly. Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow in the Middle East and north Africa programme at Chatham House, said: “The decision by the Houthis to join the broader Middle East conflict marks a serious and deeply concerning escalation. The potential impact on key commercial maritime routes, especially in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait, cannot be overstated. At the same time, vital economic and military infrastructure across the Gulf region may become increasingly exposed.” Israel’s military has continued its relentless air assault on Iran, saying on Sunday its forces targeted Tehran’s weapons manufacturing infrastructure, including dozens of storage and production sites, the day before. Five people were killed in a strike on a pier in the southern Iranian port of Bandar-e-Khamir, which also destroyed two vessels, state media reported. In Tehran, a building housing Qatar’s Al Araby TV was hit and there were power outages in the east of the city. Netanyahu announced that Israel would widen its invasion of southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces continue to target the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group. “In Lebanon, I have just ordered the military to further expand the existing security zone,” Netanyahu said in a video statement. “This is intended to definitively neutralise the threat of invasion [by Hezbollah militants] and to keep anti-tank missile fire away from the border.” On the ground in Lebanon, a funeral was held on Sunday for three journalists killed in an Israeli strike the day before. Officials say more than 1,100 people have been killed in the fighting in Lebanon since the Iran war began. The UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon (Unifil) said a peacekeeper was killed when a projectile exploded at one of its positions near the southern Lebanese village of Adchit al-Qusayr on Sunday. Another peacekeeper was critically injured, it said in a statement. “We do not know the origin of the projectile. We have launched an investigation to determine all of the circumstances,” Unifil added. An Iranian missile sparked a fire in the Neot Hovav industrial zone near Beersheba in Israel, and officials were assessing the risk of a hazardous materials leak and urging the public to stay away. Adama, a maker of active ingredients and crop protection materials, said its Makhteshim plant was hit. The IDF said on Sunday evening that the impact may have been caused by missile shrapnel. Soroka hospital in Beersheba said it had treated six people who were lightly injured in the attack. Reuters contributed to this report