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‘Coalition of the willing’ nations to hold call on ending war in Ukraine

Leaders of the “coalition of the willing” group of nations will hold a video call on Thursday as chaotic American efforts to push through a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine reach a crunch moment. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said his officials would hand over a revised version of a peace plan to US negotiators on Wednesday before the call with leaders and officials from about 30 countries. Zelenskyy will be on the call, along with Britain’s Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Friedrich Merz, who had a four-way meeting in Downing Street on Monday. They will be joined by numerous other leaders of nations supporting Ukraine. “This week may bring news for all of us,” Zelenskyy wrote on X. “We believe that peace has no alternative, and the key questions are how to compel Russia to stop the killings and what specifically will deter Russia from a third invasion. Thursday’s call comes a day after Starmer, Macron and Merz spoke to Donald Trump and agreed it was a “critical moment”, according to a British report of the conversation. “Intensive work on the peace plan is continuing and will continue in the coming days,” it said. The European leaders have also been working to draw up security guarantees for Ukraine in the event a peace deal is struck, though it is far from clear any western nations are willing to offer meaningful guarantees against further Russian aggression in the event of a peace deal. Trump has vacillated between appearing supportive and dismissive of Ukraine since taking office at the beginning of this year, but his recent peace drive on terms that seem beneficial to Russia, combined with a new US national security strategy that attacks European nations, has worried allies. In a repeat of previous cycles of Trump-led peace efforts, Zelenskyy has mobilised European leaders to come to his assistance when under pressure from the US president. Trump claimed earlier in the week that Zelenskyy had not even read his draft peace plan. “Russia is, I believe, fine with it, but I’m not sure that Zelenskyy is fine with it,” said Trump. Numerous Russian officials have praised the Trump team’s peace efforts, and Vladimir Putin welcomed the White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for five hours of talks in the Kremlin last week. Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said Trump was the only western leader with “an understanding of the reasons that made war in Ukraine inevitable”. But sceptics say there is little sign that Russia is ready to sign a peace deal, even on the terms proposed by the White House, which include Kyiv giving up control of the entire Donbas region. Putin has instead said repeatedly that Moscow wants a “comprehensive settlement” to the conflict. At home, Zelenskyy is under pressure on several fronts, after a corruption scandal led him to fire his powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, his closest confidant since the start of the full-scale war. On Tuesday, Trump piled further pressure on, claiming Ukraine ought to hold elections and suggesting Zelenskyy, whose official term ended in May 2024, might not win them. “They haven’t had an election in a long time,” Trump told Politico. “You know, they talk about a democracy, but it gets to a point where it’s not a democracy any more.” There has been a consensus in Ukrainian politics that holding a wartime election, which is illegal under martial law, would only play into Russia’s hands, and even staunch critics of Zelenskyy have not called for a vote. But clearly feeling pressured by statements from Trump and others in his orbit, Zelenskyy said on Tuesday evening he was “ready for elections”. He said he would ask the US to supply proposals on how to hold a vote safely and request that MPs prepare legislation to allow an election. “I am asking … the United States to help me, possibly together with European colleagues, to ensure security for the elections, and then in the next 60 to 90 days Ukraine will be ready to hold the elections. I personally have the will and readiness for this,” Zelenskyy said. On the frontline, Russia continued its assaults on the city of Pokrovsk and nearby Myrnohrad on Wednesday. The Ukrainian military said Russia was using “armoured vehicles, cars and motorcycles” to storm the northern part of Pokrovsk from the morning. Russia has already claimed control of the whole city but Kyiv says it holds the northern part. On Tuesday, Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, said Moscow’s forces now controlled 30% of nearby Myrnohrad and that Putin had ordered them to complete the takeover of the town. A Ukrainian military source who had just returned from Myrnohrad confirmed that street battles are going on in the town. “It’s absolute hell,” said the source.

Starmer, Merz and Macron take phone call with Trump on Ukraine peace talks – as it happened

That’s it from us on this live blog. Here’s a recap of the main news of the day: The leaders of France, Germany and the UK spoke with Donald Trump about Ukraine on Wednesday. In similar statements Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Keir Starmer said they discussed “the state of talks” on ending the Ukraine war, agreeing that “intensive work on the peace plan is to continue in the coming days.” The leaders also agreed that it was “a crucial moment” for Ukraine and for “common security in the Euro-Atlantic area.” Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his team would talk to US negotiators on Wednesday about the process of postwar reconstruction and economic development. This comes a day before urgent talks with 30 leaders in the Coalition of the Willing and amid plans to use frozen Russian assets to provide a $78bn loan to Kyiv. There were unconfirmed reports that another meeting of European leaders on Ukraine is planned for Monday in Berlin, a week on from the latest summit in London. German chancellor Friedrich Merz said he wanted the US to remain a partner of Germany despite a changing nature of their relationship, saying he would also defend his country’s record on migration when he next meets Donald Trump. This comes after Trump attacked Europe as “decaying” because of immigration. Merz said: “We are preparing ourselves for a change in transatlantic relations. But I would still like to see it as a partnership, and I hope that America sees it the same way in its relations with Europe and also with Germany.” Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is ready to hold a wartime election within the next three months, if Ukraine’s parliament and foreign allies will allow it, after Donald Trump accused him of clinging on to power. Pope Leo has criticized Trump’s comments about Europe. Without naming the US president the pope said: “Remarks that are made about Europe, also in interviews recently, I think, are trying to break apart what I think needs to be a very important alliance today and in the future.” Venezuela’s opposition leader was awarded the Nobel peace prize in absentia at a ceremony in Oslo, Norway. María Corina Machado, has vowed to continue her struggle to free the country from years of “obscene corruption”, “brutal dictatorship” and “despair”. In a lecture delivered by her daughter, Ana Corina Sosa Machado, the former congresswoman and veteran pro-democracy campaigner pledged to continue leading Venezuela on its “long march to freedom”.

Venezuelan Nobel peace prize winner misses ceremony but vows to continue struggle

Venezuela’s most prominent opposition leader, María Corina Machado, has vowed to continue her struggle to free the country from years of “obscene corruption”, “brutal dictatorship” and “despair” as she was awarded the Nobel peace prize at a ceremony in Norway’s capital, Oslo. The 58-year-old conservative has lived in hiding in Venezuela since its authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro, was accused of stealing the 2024 presidential election from her political movement. Despite fevered speculation that she would make a dramatic appearance at Wednesday’s event, having somehow slipped out of Venezuela, Machado was not present, although she was expected to arrive in Oslo in the coming hours. In a lecture delivered by her daughter, Ana Corina Sosa Machado, the former congresswoman and veteran pro-democracy campaigner pledged to continue leading Venezuela on its “long march to freedom”. “Venezuela will breathe again,” said Machado, who has lived underground since Maduro launched a wave of repression after refusing to accept he had lost last year’s vote, despite compelling proof. “We will open prison doors and watch thousands who were unjustly detained step into the warm sun, embraced at last by those who never stopped fighting for them … We will hug again. Fall in love again. Hear our streets fill with laughter and music,” added Machado, who some call Venezuela’s Iron Lady. Opening Wednesday’s ceremony, the chair of the Norwegian Nobel committee, Jørgen Watne Frydnes, said Machado was “safe” and “will be here with us in Oslo” after “a journey in a situation of extreme danger”, although not in time for the event. In an audio message released by her team, the activist thanked those who had “risked their lives” to get her out of Venezuela and confirmed: “I’m on my way … I’ll see you very soon.” It was not immediately clear how Machado had managed to escape Venezuela but the Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, reported that she had secretly travelled by boat to the Caribbean island of Curaçao on Tuesday. Latin America leaders and celebrities including the rightwing presidents of Argentina, Ecuador, Panama and Paraguay – Javier Milei, Daniel Noboa, José Raúl Mulino and Santiago Peña – travelled to Oslo to offer Machado their support as her movement continued its crusade to force Maduro from power. Also present was Edmundo González, the 76-year-old diplomat who filled Machado’s shoes in last year’s election after she was banned from running and is widely believed to have won. González was forced into exile in Spain by Maduro’s post-election crackdown. The Venezuelan pianist and activist Gabriela Montero flew to Norway to perform at Wednesday’s ceremony inside the redbrick Oslo city hall. Montero said Machado had asked her to play Mi Querencia (My Haven), a song by the Venezuelan composer Simón Díaz that the pianist believed spoke to the exodus of more than eight million people who have fled economic hardship and repression in Venezuela since Maduro took power in 2013. “The song is about coming home,” Montero said before the ceremony. “That has been [María Corina’s] mantra all these years: that we will all be able to return home and that families will come together and the country will rebuild with that enormous diaspora that has spread through the world for so many years.” Montero paid tribute to a politician she called “the most courageous, resilient woman that I know”. “María Corina never abandoned the fight despite her enormous personal sacrifices … She always kept the goal in sight: which has been to liberate a country that she loves and that she has given her life up for,” the musician said. Addressing the audience, Frydnes celebrated Machado’s “tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a peaceful and just transition from dictatorship to democracy”. Standing next to a portrait of Machado, Frydnes sent a direct message to Maduro: “You should accept the election results and step down … because that is the will of the Venezuelan people … Let a new age dawn.” Soon after the ceremony, Colombia’s leftwing president, Gustavo Petro, also turned up the heat on Maduro, tweeting it was time for an inclusive transitional government, an end to repression and an amnesty in Venezuela. The Nobel ceremony coincides with one of the most dramatic and uncertain moments in Venezuela’s turbulent recent history. Since August, Donald Trump has ordered a massive naval deployment in the Caribbean Sea and a series of deadly strikes on alleged narco boats off Venezuela’s northern coast. On Tuesday, two US fighter jets flew within less than 80km of Venezuela’s second biggest city, Maracaibo, in a show of force. While the official justification for the military buildup is Trump’s “war on drugs”, most analysts and diplomats believe his fundamental goal is to topple Maduro by sparking a military uprising. Trump tried – but failed – to remove Maduro during his first term in the White House with a “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions and military threats. “His days are numbered,” Trump told Politico this week – although allies, including the now secretary of state Marco Rubio, made almost identical claims during the 2019 attempt to unseat Maduro, and were wrong. Speaking to Politico, Trump refused to rule out a ground invasion of Venezuela, although given his non-interventionist policy few expect that to happen. Still, some observers fear bloodshed if Trump intensifies his military campaign, possibly by launching strikes against land targets within Venezuela. Celso Amorim, the chief foreign policy adviser to Brazil’s leftwing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, told the Guardian that a US attack could create a Vietnam-style “war zone”. Other observers remember the chaos unleashed by the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein or the 2011 Nato airstrikes that helped bring down Muammar Gaddafi. Montero rejected such comparisons. “They try to compare it to other ‘regime changes’ in history – and it’s nothing like anything else that we have ever seen,” the pianist said. “We have marched, we have voted, we have protested [against Maduro] … We’ve done everything to free ourselves of this terrible, terrible chapter of our history … and it’s very frustrating when we encounter public opinion that doesn’t understand what has happened to us and what we are up against.” In her lecture, Machado said Venezuela had once been “the most stable [democracy] in Latin America” but had been plunged into economic ruin and authoritarian rule in the years after the 1998 election of Maduro’s mentor, Hugo Chávez, as the country’s oil wealth was frittered away and stolen. “From 1999 onward, the regime dismantled our democracy,” she said. “[We have spent] almost three decades … fighting against a brutal dictatorship.” The Norwegian Nobel Institute’s decision to honour Machado is not without controversy. While the committee celebrated her dogged struggle against Venezuela’s “brutal, authoritarian state”, critics pointed to Machado’s past support for military intervention to unseat the country’s dictator. Others have criticised her failure to condemn Trump’s deadly strikes in the Caribbean or his treatment of Venezuelan migrants deported to a notorious prison in El Salvador. After her Nobel prize was announced in October, Machado dedicated the award to Trump “for his decisive support of our cause” and called the US president one of “our main allies to achieve freedom and democracy”. Dozens of protesters took to the streets of Oslo on the eve of the ceremony to denounce the award. “A peace prize must be awarded to actors who genuinely work for peace, dialogue, and justice. When the prize is given to a politician who supports military interference and actions contrary to international law, it breaks with the very purpose of the Nobel peace prize,” Gro Standnes, an activist and member of the Norwegian Peace Council said in a statement.

Ethiopia is committed to peace and dialogue in the Amhara region | Letter

We appreciate the Guardian’s coverage of Ethiopia and the Amhara region. Accurate and balanced reporting is essential for informing the global public and supporting peace in the Horn of Africa. However, the government of Ethiopia wishes to clarify aspects of your recent photo essay (Inside Ethiopia’s Fano insurgency – photo essay, 1 December), as some claims do not fully reflect realities on the ground. The article cites the Fano militias’ claim that they control more than 80% of the Amhara region. This is inaccurate. Development projects and security operations continue across the region, with the government maintaining oversight of population centres and institutions. While photo essays capture aspects of life in the region, dramatic images and brief captions can oversimplify complex realities. Full context is essential for a balanced understanding. The article also omits the government’s post-conflict restructuring of armed groups. Former Fano fighters were offered lawful options: integration into the national or regional security forces, or disarmament and civilian reintegration. Many accepted. This reflects the constitutional principle that the state alone holds the monopoly on force. Finally, portrayals of the Pretoria peace agreement and the Fano movement are misleading. Fano, a civilian-turned-fighter group with no mandate to represent the Amhara people, claims the government betrayed them. In reality, federal officials, including Amhara representatives, negotiated with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front to end longstanding conflict and restore stability. The movement lacks democratic legitimacy, and its invocation of “Ethiopianness” misrepresents Ethiopia’s multi-ethnic identity and undermines the wellbeing of ordinary citizens. Ethiopia remains committed to peace, dialogue and accountability. The recent peace agreement between Amhara state and the Amhara Fano Popular Organization illustrates this commitment. We urge media and international partners to support de-escalation, disarmament and constructive engagement, reflecting the region’s complex realities. We hope that this response gives your readers a more complete and accurate understanding of developments in Ethiopia. Biruk Mekonnen Demissie Ambassador of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia to the UK

‘It’s a breach of trust’: fear and frustration over countries’ push to return Syrians home

Tears of joy streamed down Abdulhkeem Alshater’s face as he joined thousands of other Syrian nationals in central Vienna last year. The moment they were marking felt like a miracle: after more than five decades of brutality and repression, the Assad regime had fallen. A day later, however, the ripple effects of what had happened 2,000 miles away in Syria were laid bare. A dozen European states announced plans to suspend asylum applications from Syrians, in a show of how western states are increasingly treating refugees as transients. As the fall of Bashar al-Assad collided with politicians’ quest to be seen as taking a hard line on migration, the lives of Syrians around the globe were plunged into uncertainty. In Austria, where Alshater had spent the past decade painstakingly rebuilding his life – learning German, upgrading his professional certifications and raising his family – the government said it had ordered a review of cases where asylum had been granted to Syrians and that a programme of “orderly repatriation and deportation” was being prepared. “It’s alarming and disappointing,” said Alshater, who heads the Free Syrian Community of Austria, a group that supports Syrian newcomers and helps them build bridges with Austrian officials and the wider society. “And it’s a breach of trust, especially for those who have already built a life here.” In September 2024 he was one of dozens of Syrians who spent hours volunteering to help clean up after torrential floods battered the small Austrian town of Kritzendorf. It was a small gesture of gratitude towards their new home, one also aimed at rebutting the far-right’s rhetoric and disinformation on migrants. Months later, Austria became the first country in the EU to temporarily suspend family reunification for refugees, a decision that disproportionately affected Syrians. In July this year it became the first to seize on the fall of Assad to return a Syrian with a criminal conviction to his birth country. Alshater said the government’s actions had caused “significant fear” among the nearly 100,000 Syrians in Austria, leaving some grappling with depression and anxiety. In neighbouring Germany, home to Europe’s largest Syrian diaspora, the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has said he expects many of the nearly 1 million Syrians living in Germany to voluntarily return home. “There are now no longer any grounds for asylum in Germany, and therefore we can also begin with repatriations,” he said last month. Those who refused to return could face deportation “in the near future”, he said. His view clashed with the many employers, trade unions and business associations who pointed to the vital role that Syrians play in alleviating the country’s deep labour shortages, as well as reservations raised by his own foreign minister. The German Economic Institute said last year that about 80,000 Syrians worked in sectors plagued by shortages. This included more than 4,000 mechatronic technicians in the auto industry, about 2,470 dentists and dental hygienists, 2,260 childcare workers and 2,160 medical carers. The study also found that more than 5,000 Syrian doctors were fully employed in Germany and that their return could lead to “critical shortages” in medical services. The threat of deportations now dominates conversations among Syrians, said Anas Alakkad, a refugee who runs a startup that seeks to train migrants for the job market in Germany. “They are afraid that they will get deported,” Alakkad said. Others question whether it is worth learning the language, starting businesses or settling down. “For the refugees who arrived recently, they don’t know if they will be able to get residency, and even if they do, they’re not allowed to bring their families here. So they’re really frustrated,” he said. Governments’ push to return Syrians home have transformed how many in the community see the fall of Assad, said Ahed Festuk, a Syrian activist who moved to the US in 2015. “It’s really bittersweet,” she said. “It’s true that we got our home back, but we shouldn’t ignore the fact that our home has been destroyed completely.” In autumn, a World Bank report described the challenges of reconstructing Syria as “immense”, estimating that it would cost more than US$200bn (£150bn) Weeks later, Donald Trump’s administration said it had ended temporary deportation protections and work permits for more than 6,100 Syrians in the US. Last month a federal judge blocked the order, leaving these Syrians in limbo. Festuk visited Syria in June and saw first-hand how the infrastructure was severely lacking, leaving the government struggling to provide basic services, such as electricity and potable water. While the situation has improved since then, violence continues to flare up sporadically. “So to add millions of people right now I think would be really challenging for the people, for the government and for the country itself,” Festuk said. She was certain that many Syrians would eventually return, echoing a recent UN survey that found that more than 80% of refugees hoped to return to Syria one day. More than a million people – about 15% of the nearly 7 million refugees forced out of the country by the civil war – had already headed back to Syria in the past year. But Festuk called on countries to give them space to decide. “It’s still too early to force people,” said Festuk, who works for the New York-based Multifaith Alliance, which supports refugees and internally displaced people around the world. M Murat Erdoğan, a migration researcher who has studied the wave of Syrian arrivals in Turkey, said about 500,000 people last year returned to Syria from Turkey, which took in about 4 million Syrians during the war. “So far the voluntary return has been truly voluntary,” he said. “They were relatively ready to go back.” Others, however, had forged deep ties in Turkey: more than 14,000 businesses have been launched or co-launched by Syrians in the country since the war started. “It will not be easy,” Erdoğan said. “They work in Turkey, they have children in schools there or they have access to services in Turkey.” In recent years these roots have come up against a hardening of attitudes towards Syrians in some quarters. A 2023 presidential candidate vowed to send all Syrians home if he was elected. In the German town of Ostelsheim, population 2,500, Ryyan Alshebl listed the topics that dominate his day-to-day life: wind turbines, combating loneliness among elderly people, and land use planning. In 2023, eight years after he had arrived in Germany as a refugee, he was elected mayor of the municipality. It is a hint of the kind of integration achieved by many Syrians in the country, a feat that has been overshadowed by far-right efforts to turn migration into a political talking point. “People told me after the election that they had biased ideas about Syrian refugees, what they might look like or what they could do,” said Alshebl, who stood as a non-party candidate in the elections despite being a member of the German Greens. In the past year, since the fall of Assad, he said, the German government had created a “dangerous” expectation that Syrians would return – a promise that if not kept, he said, could push voters into the arms of the far right and pave the way for forced deportations. The view has left Alshebl calling for an approach that could strike a balance: allowing Syrians who have learned the language and joined the workforce to stay, while eventually deporting the minority who continue to rely on state assistance. “It is not an act of benevolence for Germany to say that those who are well integrated should stay,” he said. “Germany needs these people. But those who for whatever reason have not been able to gain a foothold so far must also be told in no uncertain terms that they cannot stay. That’s a legitimate deal, I would say.”

Trump has confirmed Europeans’ worst fears. Are their leaders ready to stand up to him now?

Almost half of EU citizens regard Donald Trump as an enemy of Europe, a new survey across nine countries revealed last week. The poll, conducted for the French debate platform Le Grand Continent, found that across Europe, Trumpism is considered “a hostile force”. The new US foreign policy doctrine published by the White House on Friday will have heightened these respondents’ worst fears. The 30-page National Security Strategy landed like a bombshell in Europe. And citizens may have been out in front of their political leaders in figuring out what Trump’s worldview could mean for Europeans. The strategy outlines a radical shift away from the ethos underpinning the Atlantic alliance, the doctrine that has bound the US to Europe since the second world war. The US, now frames the EU – the continent’s core political community – as a legitimate target for ideological warfare. Its most astonishing pivot is a threat to meddle directly to “cultivate resistance” in Europe and restore the supposedly lost national sovereignties of the EU’s ailing individual nations. This is not just the familiar threat to withdraw troops or demand that Europe shells out more money for its own defence. It suggests that the Trump administration wants to help “patriotic” far-right parties to power, while legitimising racist conspiracy theories. It makes the extraordinary claim that Europe faces the risk of “civilisational erasure” if “non-European” immigration is allowed to continue. For the Dutch political scientist Cas Mudde, an expert in the far right, this strategy means Europe must count the US from now on as “a willing adversary”. Writing in the Guardian, Mudde said: “Perhaps now that it is published in an official document, European leaders will finally understand that ‘daddy’ is serious … The current US government believes that its national security is best served by the destruction of liberal democracy in Europe.” Trump doubled down on Tuesday, using an interview with Politico to again lay into “decaying” European nations and their “politically correct” leaders whose immigration policies were “destroying” their countries. He complained about Paris and London in particular: the problem, as he viewed it was that the French and British capitals were becoming less white, or, wrote the Guardian’s Peter Beaumont, that they are “not racist enough”. *** Coercive consequences The US military and political alliance with Europe is clearly in crisis. In an opinion piece on Monday, Georg Riekeles and Varg Folkman predicted that Washington will, as it draws back militarily, pull harder on other coercive levers to reshape Europe in the political direction the US wants. Not just on trade, either: as Mudde also noted, this could mean the US demanding protection for far-right free speech. One of the biggest questions to be asked, according to Paul Taylor of the European Policy Centre, is why there is such an unequivocal embrace of Russia but no mention of it as a threat. Is there a longer game involving pulling in Vladimir Putin to isolate China? Are influential US interests eyeing juicy business deals? Either way, the document was warmly welcomed by the Kremlin. Yet, European governments’ reaction (in public, at least) has been muted. Leaders have grovelled to Trump for so many months, desperate to keep him engaged in the defence of Ukraine – and to avoid any peace plan that won’t harm their security, too (or provoke another trade war) – that they seem immobilised from speaking up. Germany’s Friedrich Merz has gone the furthest, saying it underscored the need for a more independent European security policy. The White House’s efforts to bully Ukraine into a bad “peace” deal could be entering another treacherous phase. But Washington’s priority is not – the strategy made clear – a European security architecture that shields Ukraine from future Russian invasion. It is an “expeditious cessation of hostilities” and the desire to “reestablish strategic stability with Russia”. These words (coupled with the accusation that Europe is not interested in making peace with Putin) must have been the elephant in the room when Merz, Starmer and Emmanuel Macron hugged Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy close at Downing Street on Monday. In his interview the following day, Trump again threatened to cut Ukraine adrift if Zelenskyy does not “play ball” in the talks. Europe has been sidelined from direct involvement in the US-led negotiations, yet it has helped Ukraine to hold the line against a dangerous Trump-Putin carve-up. Kyiv is now running out of money however so Europe must urgently find billions to keep Ukraine in the fight, either by using frozen Russian assets or joint borrowing. Zelenskyy, meanwhile, desperate to avoid a transatlantic rift, has said he may be able to stage elections, in response to Trump’s accusation that he is using the war to cling to power. *** How should Europe respond? This latest doctrine could form the basis of US international policy for the remaining years of Trump’s term, and much longer if his vice-president, JD Vance, succeeds him. Europe’s democracies, as a wide range of analysts told Jon Henley, need urgently to develop a counter-plan both to save Ukraine and future-proof their liberal democracies from Maga-inspired interference. Merely hoping that Trump’s embrace drives a wedge between Europe’s leading far rlght parties is a risky strategy. As Timothy Garton Ash implored of the continent’s leaders in this column: “How much more clarity do you need?” Nathalie Tocci, director of the Italian Institute for International Affairs, believes that Europe has the means to stand on its own, even in the short-term, to defend Ukraine. “Europe can prevent Kyiv’s capitulation, if we jolt ourselves out of our learned helplessness and stop sucking up to Trump. It’ll be tough but we can do it.” Being heard to stand up to Trump right now might even put Europe’s centrist leaders in good stead with their anxious voters. Le Grand Continent’s survey also showed that 51% of Europeans believed, even before Putin’s chilling statement last week about being “ready for war right now with Europe”, that they too are in Moscow’s crosshairs. To receive the complete version of This Is Europe in your inbox every Wednesday, please subscribe here.

AfD responds to Trump ‘erasure’ claims with call for nationalist revival in Europe

Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has responded to US claims that Europe faces “civilisational erasure” by saying it backs efforts for a nationalist revival on the continent – but other nationalist parties in the EU are far more cautious. “The AfD is fighting alongside its international friends for a conservative renaissance,” the party’s foreign policy spokesperson, Markus Frohnmaier, said on Wednesday, adding that he would meet Maga Republicans in Washington and New York this week. The anti-immigration party, which leads nationwide polls, was “building strong partnerships with those forces that advocate national sovereignty, cultural identity and realistic security and migration policies”, Frohnmaier told AFP. The New York City Young Republican club, whose state-wide chapter was recently suspended after details of a group chat emerged in which members praised Adolf Hitler – has invited Frohnmaier to its annual gala this week as guest of honour, Politico reported. His comments followed the publication on Friday of the latest US national security strategy in which the Trump administration claimed Europe faced cultural collapse because of migration and EU integration and promised tacit support to far-right parties. Donald Trump doubled down on the analysis in an interview on Tuesday, describing Europe as “weak” and “decaying” and claiming it was “destroying itself” through immigration and calling some unnamed European leaders “real stupid”. The strategy document said several EU countries risked becoming “majority non-European” within decades, accusing the EU of “undermining political liberty and sovereignty”, censoring free speech and “suppressing political opposition”. US policy towards the EU would therefore focus on “cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations”, the document said, hailing the “growing influence of patriotic European parties” as “cause for great optimism”. Far-right parties such as the AfD, the National Rally (RN) in France and Spain’s Vox have built their electoral campaigns around attacking alleged EU overreach and excessive non-EU migration, sometimes echoing the “great replacement” conspiracy theory. The AfD in particular has actively sought closer ties with Trump’s Make America Great Again movement. Anna Paulina Luna, a Republican congresswoman from Florida, said last month she expected to host about 40 AfD politicians in the US. The AfD’s co-leader Tino Chrupalla attended Trump’s second inauguration in January and the tech billionaire Elon Musk, a major Trump donor, campaigned on behalf of the AfD candidate Alice Weidel before German elections in February. However, other nationalist parties have been more circumspect, aware of polling showing Trump is hugely unpopular in Europe. Most Europeans – including many far-right voters – consider the US president to be a danger to the EU and want a stronger bloc. Analysts have long noted the difficult challenge that Trump’s policies pose to nationalists in the EU: while they may agree with some of them in principle, Maga is “America first” – while they are “France first”, “Germany first” or “Spain first”. Even Hungary’s illiberal government, the EU’s most disruptive nationalist force, has refrained from direct comment on the new US strategy, though the country’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, said it was “working on a patriotic revolution to make Europe great again”. Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, whose Brothers of Italy party has post-fascist roots and who has long touted her ideological affinities with Trump’s Maga camp, has volunteered merely that she saw “no cracks” in the transatlantic relationship. While broadly sharing Trump’s vision on migration and the EU, Jordan Bardella, the RN leader, told the Daily Telegraph: “I’m French, so I’m not happy with vassalage, and I don’t need a big brother like Trump to consider the fate of my country.” To the BBC, he added: “It is true that mass immigration and the laxity of our leaders … are today disrupting the power balance of European societies.” But the RN has so far been very wary of seeking to cultivate Maga contacts in the way the AfD has. Bardella has previously accused the US of engaging in “economic warfare” and said Trump was “a good thing for Americans, but a bad thing for Europeans”.

EU proposes loosening rules on AI gigafactories in green rollback

Datacentres, AI gigafactories and affordable housing may be exempt from mandatory environmental impact assessments in the EU under a proposal that advances the European Commission’s rollback of green rules. The latest in a series of packages to cut red tape calls for permitting processes for critical projects to be sped up and reducing the scope of environmental reporting rules for businesses. The proposed overhaul would expand the list of strategic sectors to count datacentres, in line with the EU’s ambitions to become a global leader in AI, and affordable housing, to improve labour mobility. Member states would be free to decide whether such projects should be subject to environmental impact assessments. Other parts of the simplification plan include repealing a hazardous chemical database that lists “substances of concern in products”; removing requirements on EU polluters to have authorised representatives in member states where they sell their products; and pushing the need for environmental management systems in farms and industry from the level of plants to that of companies. Jessika Roswall, the environment and water commissioner, said: “Make no mistake: this is not a dilution of our environmental rules. However, we must adapt to a rapidly changing world.” The commission estimates its proposals, which were not accompanied by a formal impact assessment, will save companies €1bn a year. Green groups described the plans as part of “a broader pattern of attack” that is dismantling European environmental policy and undermining democratic accountability, and warned of its indirect costs to human health and nature. A study conducted for the commission in April put the costs of not implementing existing EU environmental law at €180bn a year. Sabien Leemans, a biodiversity campaigner at the European branch of WWF, siad: “Today’s proposal marks yet another sad milestone in the deregulation madness. “It’s like watching a car crash in slow motion on repeat. The commission proposes ‘minor’ changes, completely loses control and we end up with MEPs and member states ripping apart entire environmental laws.” The environmental package was announced alongside a proposal to expand and modernise the EU’s electricity grid as it moves from burning fossil fuels in power plants to generating electricity mainly from wind turbines and solar panels. Overnight, lawmakers and member states agreed on a climate target to reduce planet-heating pollution by 90% compared with 1990 levels, with loopholes allowing for 5% of the total cuts to come from foreign carbon credits. Ottmar Edenhofer, the chair of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, said it was an “important milestone” to keep the EU on a feasible path towards climate neutrality by 2050. “However, some of the flexibilities introduced by policymakers – such as the possible use of international carbon credits – risk weakening domestic emissions reductions by 2040 and therefore jeopardising the EU’s long-term climate-neutrality goal,” he added. “If international carbon credits are to play any role, they must meet the highest standards of environmental integrity to avoid undermining the EU’s domestic transition.” On Tuesday, EU governments and lawmakers also reached a deal to scale back its corporate sustainability laws. The agreement, which came after heavy pressure from within the EU as well as from the US, limits the number of companies covered, delays the deadline for compliance with one of the directives until 2029 and scraps a requirement for companies to adopt climate change transition plans. The deal was welcomed by business lobby groups, who had campaigned to reduce the scope of the rules. Markus Beyrer, the director general of BusinessEurope, said: “It is encouraging to see the more realistic rules on conducting due diligence which recognises that not all risks or business partners in chains of activities need to be mapped. We also welcome refocusing of the rules to core diligence rather than transition plans, which risked duplication and clashes with other EU rules.”