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Middle East crisis live: Trump says Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended by three weeks but claims he won’t rush Iran deal

Iran’s deputy president has warned the US of “an eye for an eye” over oil strikes, the Mehr news agency has reported. According to the outlet, Esmaeil Saqab Esfahani said: “If the enemy makes another mistake, our strategy will be an eye for an eye. If any of our oil wells are hit, one of the oil [facilities] of the countries from whose soil we are attacked will be targeted.” He added that Tehran’s negotiation team has “grabbed the enemy’s collar at the negotiating table”. He also said Iranians shouldn’t worry about their energy supply as the “necessary arrangements” have been made. This comes after US president Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike oil plants in the area, as well as threatening to “obliterate” Iran’s power stations and fresh water plants.

Friday briefing: How the boom in running culture is reflected in the London Marathon

Good morning. Britain is experiencing a running boom – and it is being driven by gen Z women. More than a million people applied to be on the London Marathon start line this Sunday, including about 850,000 British runners. A third of those were aged between 18 and 29, and the majority in this category were female, according to event organisers. For a sport stereotypically dominated by spindly men in tight shorts, it is a remarkable transformation. For today’s First Edition, I speak with the Guardian’s chief sports reporter Sean Ingle about the London Marathon’s remarkable popularity – and why it could even become a two-day event. But first, the headlines. Five big stories UK politics | Cat Little, the lead official in the Cabinet Office, had to get a summary of Peter Mandelson’s file directly from UK security vetting (UKSV) after Olly Robbins, the subsequently sacked Foreign Office head, refused to provide it, Little has told a Commons committee. Middle East | Britain is prepared to deploy a squadron of RAF Typhoons based in Qatar to patrol over the strait of Hormuz as part of a multinational mission to keep open the strategic waterway once the Iran war comes to an end. Ukraine | EU leaders have welcomed the end of diplomatic deadlock over a long-awaited €90bn (£78bn) loan for Ukraine, after the bloc finalised the agreement along with a package of sanctions against Russia. Economics | Confidence in the UK economy has fallen sharply amid the mounting fallout from the Iran war, as businesses prepare to raise their prices and consumers brace for a fresh cost of living shock. UK news | Russell Brand said he had “exploitative” consensual sex with a 16-year-old girl at the height of his fame. In depth: ‘A celebration of what’s good in humanity’ For anyone who has watched the London Marathon, it is obvious that it is more than just a running race. Each of the 59,000 participants has their own story about why they are there. Many have endured cold, wet training sessions through the miserable British winter to complete the 26.2 miles. In the process, they raise huge sums of money for charity. Runners often hold photos of friends and family members who they are running in memory of. It can be profoundly emotional to observe. Sean, who gets to cover some of the biggest sporting events in the world for the Guardian, says it is one of the most special days in the sporting calendar. “I am fortunate enough to cover the Olympics, Wimbledon finals, the Open – whatever. The London Marathon is right up there. It’s not seeing elite men and women go off at the sort of speeds that if you and I were trying to keep up with them, you would last maybe 100 metres. My favourite part is the end of the day,” he says. “I usually finish writing around six or seven in the evening and that’s when those who are finishing in seven, eight hours are crossing the line. They can barely walk but they’ve got the biggest smile. Their friends and family are there, the spectators are cheering. It’s really a celebration of what’s good in humanity, people doing great things and raising money for all sorts of charities,” he says. Runners of all ages are taking part on Sunday. The youngest are running on their 18th birthday. The oldest is 88-year-old Harry Newton, who will be running his 22nd London Marathon and only started marathon running in his late 50s. “It’s extraordinary”, says Sean. *** A new running boom The explosion of interest in running among young women is one of the big stories in UK sport in recent years. Figures compiled by Sports England found that there were 349,000 more runners in 2024 compared to the previous year – and they were nearly all women. This has been reflected in applications for the London Marathon, particularly for younger age groups. Social media is a big factor. Influencers like Phily Bowden, who is documenting her efforts to make the GB team for the 2028 Olympics, and Mary McCarthy, whose tagline is #beattheboys, have helped make running fashionable. Elite athletes like Eilish McColgan, Georgia Hunter Bell and Keely Hodgkinson all regularly record their training on Instagram and TikTok. Meanwhile, big fashion brands have all rapidly responded to the interest on social media. “We are in the midst of a third great running boom,” says Sean. “In the 70s, it was skinny men in tight shorts. Then you had another boom when Paula Radcliffe was breaking the world record. But both of these were among serious runners who cover themselves in Vaseline and run fast. What’s different this time is that it’s not just fast runners, it’s medium and slow too. It’s different ethnicities, different demographics, and it’s largely fuelled by women.” *** The role of social run clubs Many theorise that the rise of social run clubs, which make running not just fun, but safer for women, may also be behind the surge in popularity. “If you want to run fast, you join an athletics club. But there is a club for everyone these days. I was speaking with a woman at one of these clubs earlier and they do their runs at a 7 minute per kilometre pace, which is not fast at all. They go for a chat and a coffee afterwards. It is also much safer. If you are going out in January and it’s freezing and dark, a bunch of you running together makes you feel more protected,” he says. *** A future, expanded London Marathon London Marathon organisers are looking to capitalise on the popularity. Last month, Sean revealed that the race is in advanced talks about staging a two-day event in 2027, allowing tens of thousands more runners to take part. It has not yet been approved and would be a one off – for now – but race organisers say that the expanded event would raise more than £130m for charity and bring in £400m in social and economic benefits. “I think it will happen because the London mayor’s for it,” says Sean. “The organisers are insisting it would be a one off event in 2027 which I think eases the fears of the police who have the FA Cup and other events to contend with. That said, if it’s a roaring success, you wouldn’t be shocked if in five years’ time it is a regular thing.” For now, all that is left to say is a big good luck to the thousands of runners in central London on Sunday, especially to the Guardian’s Patrick Barkham, who is running the race dressed as a badger. Rest up, drink water and enjoy some big bowls of pasta in the meantime. I will be there with thousands of others to cheer you on. What else we’ve been reading Luke Oppenheimer went on a short assignment to photograph a remote village of shepherds in Kyrgyzstan, where wolves prey on livestock, and ended up staying for four years. Here are some of his pictures. Martin Harry Sword spoke with the heavy metal band Iron Maiden on more than 50 years of success and hard living. Patrick Experts remain divided on radiation’s long-term effects in Chornobyl, but Jonathan Watts discovers there is broader agreement that excluding humans has – unexpectedly – benefited wildlife and ecosystems. Martin I thought Zoe Williams summed up perfectly what we should really find shocking about Shabana Mahmood’s f-bomb moment. Poppy Noor, acting editor, newsletters The latest instalment of Sam Wollaston’s series on abandoned buildings in Britain takes in a Welsh church claimed by spiders and ivy, and examines what its decay means for the community. Martin Sport Football | The Italian sports minister has described a proposal for his country to replace Iran at the World Cup as “not appropriate”, rejecting any idea that the Azzurri will be granted a last-minute berth. Football | Tony Parkes dies aged 76 as tributes are paid to ‘Mr Blackburn Rovers’ who served the club from 1970 until 2004. Tennis | A White House photo celebrating the University of Georgia women’s tennis team has drawn backlash due to Donald Trump and a group of men overshadowing the female athletes by lining up in front of them. Something for the weekend Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read, play and listen to right now Film Agon | ★★★★☆ Here is a fascinatingly experimental debut feature from Italian film-maker Giulio Bertelli, son of fashion designer Miuccia Prada; a machine-tooled movie, intensely designed and controlled. It’s a kind of Martian’s-eye-view documentary about something that doesn’t actually exist; it is ice-cold and detached, almost without dialogue in the conventionally dramatic sense, other than the subdued exchanges which we, as audience, overhear rather than listen to. It accumulates its own kind of desolate force. Bertelli’s film intuits the military roots of three Olympic sports: judo, fencing and shooting, as three female Italian athletes are shown taking part in a (fictional) competition called Ludoj 2024. Peter Bradshaw TV Stranger Things: Tales from ’85 | ★★★☆☆ The original Netflix series plonked us in a fantasy past where kids in small American towns rode bikes, chewed gum, listened to cassettes and played Dungeons and Dragons in their friend’s basement; or, if you weren’t American, it reminded you of movies you’d seen where that was the vibe. Either way, it was access to an era before the internet, 9/11, the banking crash, the pandemic and Trump, when life seemed easier. The cartoon spin-off, Tales from ’85, does something similar for Stranger Things itself. It rewinds to a happy, straightforward time, namely between seasons two and three. In that moment, the world of Hawkins, Indiana had been established, but we were yet to endure the show’s bumpy late period. Jack Seale Theatre The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui, Swan theatre, Stratford-Upon-Avon | ★★★★★ Bertolt Brecht’s comic grotesque parable on Hitler’s rise to power has been compared to Charlie Chaplin’s The Great Dictator, and there is something distinctly Chaplinesque in Mark Gatiss’s cartoon gangster. He is initially tragicomic as Arturo Ui, with his tramp-like clothing, powdered face and melancholy eyes. But he turns truly terrifying as Seán Linnen’s production for the Royal Shakespeare Company takes us through his thuggish ascendancy, Gatiss proving his ability to transform in a way that renders him almost unrecognisable here: part Hitler (signature moustache and hair), part Scrooge and part ghoul. Arifa Akbar Music Noah Kahan: The Great Divide | ★★★☆☆ Noah Kahan, who used to introduce himself on stage as “the Jewish Ed Sheeran”, has a thing for the stomp-clap rhythms of Mumford & Sons and stirs a little heartland rock – Springsteen via Sam Fender – into his sound. His fourth album, The Great Divide, is a record that deals in consolidation rather than development. The National’s Aaron Dessner co-produces – you can spot his touch immediately, in the opening lambent piano figure and misty ambience – but it sticks pretty close to the musical blueprint established on its predecessor. Alexis Petridis The front pages “Foreign Office shuts unit tracking potential law breaches by Israel” – a Guardian exclusive is the splash in our print edition. The i paper has “‘Shoot and kill’ – Trump’s new orders to US navy in Gulf, as Iran peace talks stall”. The Telegraph leads with “Hermer’s ‘excessive’ fee for Iraq witch-hunt”. “Heckler tells potty mouth Mahmood … Get it #!!*@* right, I’m not even white!” is the colourful front-page lead in the Metro. The Financial Times’ headline was written by a human: “US accuses China of industrial-scale theft from AI labs in tech arms race”. The Times has “Call to stop sharing data with China after breach”. The Mail offers “Farage: I’ll wage ‘war’ on benefits culture”. The Express campaigns on assisted dying with “There is one last chance” and a full-page photo of Esther Rantzen. “Infected by a monsters” – the Mirror reports on the “HIV predator jailed for life”. Today in Focus Will the backlash against AI turn violent? An attack on the home of OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman – and on the company’s headquarters – has led to concerns the backlash against AI could become violent. Guardian journalist Nick Robins-Early and researcher Sean Fleming discuss Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad A rare axolotl found injured in a Welsh river is now recovering – thanks to a sharp-eyed 10-year-old. Evie Hill spotted the unusual creature under a mat and said: “I was like: ‘That’s an axolotl.’” Despite being told it couldn’t be, she “went back in the water anyway … and caught it”. The salamander, nicknamed Dippy, is now being cared for at home after likely being abandoned. Wild axolotls, which resemble a cross between a fish and a lizard, are found only in Lake Xochimilco near Mexico City and are considered critically endangered. The species’ popularity as pets, however, has exploded in recent years owing to their exposure on TikTok, Instagram and Minecraft. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

How a simple consumer data breach spiralled into a national security crisis in US-South Korea relations

When South Korea’s biggest online retailer revealed last year that a data breach had compromised tens of millions of customer accounts, it appeared to be a corporate crisis. But five months later the issue has grown into a diplomatic storm, threatening to further degrade relations between Seoul and the Trump administration. Coupang – often described as South Korea’s answer to Amazon – is nominally a Korean company but operates from Seattle, is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, and is run by Korean-American billionaire Bom Kim. In November last year the company disclosed that a former employee had stolen an internal security key, enabling unauthorised access to data from 33.7 million users. The breach triggered a widespread movement to abandon the service and a sweeping government response. Police raided the company’s Seoul headquarters, tax authorities launched a special audit, and parliament summoned executives for questioning. Kim refused to travel to Korea for hearings, citing his role as a global chief executive and Korean police have requested that immigration authorities notify them if he enters the country. Reports suggest that the strength of Seoul’s response may have jeopardised relations with the US, adding to tensions in an alliance which is vital to South Korea’s national security. Korean broadcaster SBS reported this week that Washington had signalled it would not proceed with high-level diplomatic and defence consultations unless South Korea guaranteed Kim would face no legal consequences in connection with the data breach. South Korea’s foreign ministry has not denied the report but said in a statement that “security discussions should proceed separately from the Coupang matter” and that investigations of the data breach would continue under Korean law. The US embassy in Seoul refused to comment on the matter. The dispute has affected talks on US support for South Korea’s development of nuclear-powered submarines, SBS reported. Korean officials say a scheduled visit from a US delegations has been postponed. The issue over Coupang is one of several tensions that have emerged between Seoul and Washington under the Trump administration. In September, an immigration raid at a Hyundai-LG battery plant in Georgia detained more than 300 South Korean workers, sparking public outrage. The US has also reportedly partly restricted intelligence sharing after South Korea’s unification minister publicly identified a suspected North Korean nuclear site. In January, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25%. Coupang spent over $3m lobbying the US government in 2025, bringing its total spending since 2021 to more than $11m, according to public data compiled by OpenSecrets, a non-profit that tracks lobbying. In the first quarter of 2026, Coupang doubled its spending on Washington lobbying compared to the same period in 2025, with filings showing outreach to the White House, including the executive office of the president and the vice-president’s office. In January, vice-president JD Vance raised the Coupang issue when South Korean prime minister Kim Min-seok visited Washington, expressing hope it could be “resolved fairly to avoid tension”. On 21 April, 54 Republican members of Congress wrote to South Korea’s ambassador accusing Seoul of “discriminatory actions” against US companies and of launching a “whole-of-government assault” on Coupang over what they characterised as a “low-sensitivity data leak”. It remains unclear why Congress and some members of the Trump administration have taken up the Coupang issue so strongly. Five US investment firms that hold Coupang shares filed notices earlier this year of intent to pursue arbitration against South Korea under the US-Korea free trade agreement, claiming Seoul’s enforcement response was disproportionate compared to similar cases involving Korean companies. The arbitration process remains active. Jaechun Kim, a professor of international relations at Sogang University in Seoul, said the fundamental issue is not whether South Korea has the legal right to regulate companies in its jurisdiction but how such actions are perceived and politicised within the alliance framework. The Trump administration’s tendency to blur economic and security issues into a single transactional framework means disputes like Coupang could spill over into areas that were previously insulated from retaliation, including nuclear cooperation agreements, advanced technology sharing, or even defence procurement decisions, he said. “There is a growing sense that the US-ROK relationship may be approaching a critical threshold of strain.”

US forces board vessel in Indian Ocean – as it happened

We’re going to wrap up this live coverage now but our latest full report is here – and below is a recap of the latest news. Thanks for following along. Donald Trump announced an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire would be extended by three weeks, saying on social media that “the United States is going to work with Lebanon in order to help it protect itself from Hezbollah”, which opposes the Lebanon-Israeli talks. Trump said the leaders of Lebanon and Israel could meet at the White House “in the near future”. Trump ordered the US military to “shoot and kill” small Iranian boats that deploy mines in the strait of Hormuz. Trump also repeated the US had “total control” over strait, a claim that has met with scepticism in the face of Iranian commandos’ seizure of two container ships and a US report warning it could take six months to clear the strait of mines. The president also said a peace deal with Iran had not been reached yet because its leadership was “in turmoil”. He also said the US would not use a nuclear weapon against Iran as the conflict continues without a clear end in sight. Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said there were no “hardliners” or “moderates” in Iran, responding to Trump’s claim of internal division in Iran’s leadership. Separately, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said Iran’s state institutions “continue to act with unity, purpose, and discipline”. Israel’s killing of a Lebanese journalist in a strike has been met with international outrage as Lebanon’s prime minister described the attack as a “war crime”. Amal Khalil, 43, was killed in what colleagues described as a sustained attack by Israeli forces, with rescuers attempting to dig her out of the rubble of a building also targeted and prevented from providing life-saving assistance. Global stocks mostly fell on Thursday, retreating after recent gains as investors tempered their optimism for a quick end to the Middle East war. But on Friday Japan’s Nikkei share average rose and was poised for a third consecutive weekly gain, as enthusiasm over tech sector earnings offset uncertainty over the Middle East. Trump said the secretary of the US navy, John Phelan, was fired after conflicts with senior Pentagon leadership over shipbuilding. Italy was not interested in replacing Iran at the upcoming World Cup after a suggestion to that effect by a Trump administration official, Italian sports officials said. “It’s not a good idea,” said sports minister Andrea Abodi. The US had no objections to Iranian players participating in the World Cup but they would not be allowed to bring with them people with ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, US secretary of state Marco Rubio said. Pope Leo XIV urged the US and Iran to return to talks to end the war and condemned capital punishment, calling for a new “culture of peace” to replace the recourse to violence.

Ukraine war briefing: Trump bristles at Prince Harry’s passionate plea for Ukraine

Donald Trump has said the Duke of Sussex “is not speaking for the UK” after Prince Harry told the US to honour its obligations in the Ukrainian conflict. “I think I am speaking for the UK more than Prince Harry … But I appreciate his advice very much,” said Trump, responding to the duke’s lengthy, impassioned speech at the Kyiv Security Forum on Thursday. Harry, an ex-serviceman, did not claim to be speaking for the UK. He said he was “not here as a politician” but as “a soldier who understands service” and a “humanitarian”. Harry said: “The United States has a singular role in this story. Not only because of its power, but because when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons, America was part of the assurance that Ukraine’s sovereignty and borders would be respected. This is a moment for American leadership, a moment for America, to show that it can honour its international treaty obligations – not out of charity but out of its own enduring role in global security and strategic stability.” A Ukrainian MP has told how he flew a drone intercepter from thousands of kilometres away, throwing a spotlight on the effectiveness of Ukraine’s technology. Marian Zablotskiy said that in a “historic experiment … I piloted an FPV interceptor drone first from my office, then from right in front of the state border, and then from somewhere about 2,000km away from the drone itself – from abroad. I consider this breakthrough a decisive factor in finally stopping the Russian offensive.” Ukrainian drone manufacturer Wild Hornets confirmed Zablotskiy’s involvement to Agence France-Presse and said it wanted the remote control system to “become the primary method of drone control”. Mykhailo Fedorov, the defence minister in Kyiv, said: “Ukraine is the first in the world to systematically scale up remote control of interceptor drones. Today, we have confirmed results – the downing of targets at distances of hundreds and thousands of kilometres.” Russia was struggling to extinguish a fire raging at a Black Sea oil terminal hit by Ukraine earlier this week, local authorities told AFP on Thursday as they urged residents to stay home to avoid the smoke. Ukraine struck oil facilities in the southern town of Tuapse on Monday as it targets Russian oil exports that fund the war. The attack triggered a huge blaze and sent plumes of thick black smoke into the sky. “The fire at the Tuapse oil refinery is still ongoing – four storage tanks are ablaze,” the regional emergency headquarters told AFP on Thursday, four days after the hit. Contaminated rainfall on Wednesday left “a black coating on surfaces,” authorities said. EU leaders welcomed the end of diplomatic deadlock over a long-awaited €90bn (£78bn) loan for Ukraine, Jennifer Rankin writes, after the bloc completed the agreement along with a 20th sanctions package against Russia. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, said she thought it would be possible to disburse the first tranche of the €45bn funding planned for 2026 in this quarter, meaning by the end of June. The first payment, she indicated, would fund Ukraine’s domestic drone production – “drones from Ukraine for Ukraine”. Russian attacks on residential areas killed three people and wounded at least 10 including girls aged nine and 14, the head of Ukraine’s central Dnipropetrovsk region said on Thursday. In Russia’s Samara region, one person was killed in a drone strike; while another attack killed a person in the Russian border region of Belgorod, officials said.

Trump may talk of regime infighting, but Iran seems united by strategy born of war

Donald Trump has claimed that the infighting between moderates and hardliners in Iran’s leadership is so intense that Iranians have “no idea who their leader is”, but many experts questioned his analysis, saying, given the mass assassinations of senior commanders, the country had shown remarkable institutional cohesion. Trump’s allegations of “CRAZY” splits in the Iranian leadership – the second outing for this argument in three days – is remarkable since he has previously said either he has little knowledge of the new Iranian leadership or that there has already been regime change. Trump’s team, either through Pakistani mediators or more direct contacts, may be picking up that different factions are demanding different preconditions for the talks to restart. Trump at a minimum is implying that military hardliners have taken charge from the civilian diplomatic leadership. It is hardly a secret that Iran has been riven for decades over how to approach the US and the wisdom of negotiations, but some Iranian academics and observers are accusing Trump of cognitive warfare: attempting to create what Mohamed Amersi, a member of the Global Advisory Council at the Wilson Centre, described as “chronic systemic paralysis in which the country’s decision-making machine becomes deadlocked”. Ali Ansari, a professor of modern history at St Andrews, said Iran, if not experiencing a leadership vacuum, was at least a country in transition since the newly installed – and apparently badly injured supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei – had not yet been able to establish his authority, a process that took his father and predecessor Ali Khamenei many years. “We are not quite sure if he is all there and even if he is all there, whether he will be able to consolidate his position and authority in the way that his father did,” Ansari said. Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, said Iran had been moving towards a more collective leadership in the final two years of Ali Khamenei’s life. “He was getting older and unwilling to take responsibility for unpopular measures or ones that he could not justify in religious terms such as not enforcing the hijab,” said Alfoneh. Mojtaba Khamenei has said little in detail about the talks or the ceasefire, but one indicator of his frame of mind may be his appointment as military adviser of Mohsen Rezaee, one of the most unreconstructed of the former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders and an opponent of a ceasefire. Hassan Ahmadian, an associate professor of west Asian studies at the University of Tehran, denies there are any fractures in Iran’s leadership. “The Iranian political system is very institutionalised. Name another system whose top echelon is assassinated and is capable of continuing and also waging a retaliatory war effort against two big foes. I do not see any historical parallel to this,” Ahmadian said. He added: “For every institution in Iran there is a parallel institution and that makes it easier to withstand shocks.” He said that Iran had united around a new strategy born of war that focused on using the leverage provided by the strait of Hormuz to fight Trump’s pressure. “The strait is the key … If there is a fair deal, we will get sanctions relief and reparations and in exchange Iran will bring in the IAEA [the UN nuclear inspectorate] and dilute the highly enriched uranium. “Moreover, we are saying if you violate your commitments, we have a changed mentality. In 2018 [when Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal] Iran did not have a lot to offer. At this point we do, so we are talking Trump’s language. It is very effective. As you target our people, we will target the pockets of your people,” he said. Ahmadian said Trump’s claims of a divided command were a form of psychological warfare and argued that senior leaders widely agreed on the refusal to negotiate until the US ended its blockade of Iran’s ports. That policy, he said, derived its strength from being hammered out by the 13-strong supreme national security council (SNSC), the governing body that, far more than the political cabinet, brought together all the forces inside Iran: judicial, political, military and intelligence. The Israeli decision to assassinate the SNSC secretary, Ali Larijani, may turn out to be counterproductive as it removed the most capable, pragmatic and experienced figures in Iranian politics, who might have been able to forge a consensus negotiation strategy. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, his replacement as secretary, does not have the same breadth of experience, and is a veteran IRGC commander. To the extent that anyone has taken on Larijani’s cohesive role, it is the speaker of the parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Sometimes described as a “modernising autocrat”, he was appointed head of the Iranian delegation to Islamabad, overseeing the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, a skilled diplomat who would work inside pre-determined parameters. In a recent, widely praised TV interview, Ghalibaf laid it on thick how successful Iran had been, but also made clear the country could not continue in the same vein. Making the case for negotiation, he argued Iran may have won the battle, but it may not be able to win the war. He cautioned against exaggerating Iran’s leverage, stressing that US military superiority and capabilities should not be underestimated. Iran had to negotiate, a position not shared. In all this, the elected Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has been sidelined. The reformist leader has been deputed instead to keep the home front operating, and has been kept from the details of the negotiations. Prof Ansari argued some of the tensions on how to negotiate reflect IRGC concern to protect essential interests – including its extensive business empire. He said: “The real danger for the Islamic republic is not war but peace, for then there will be an auditing of what the hell happened – especially if the economic situation is extremely difficult as it is expected to be.”

Extended naval blockade is admission US military escalation poses even greater risk

Donald Trump’s decision to extend the naval blockade of Iran indefinitely may do nothing to reduce world oil prices – but it could amount to a recognition that further US military escalation in breach of the nominal ceasefire comes with greater risk against a regime disinclined to surrender. In theory, Trump’s military options are increasing. A third US carrier strike group, the George HW Bush, is due to arrive in the Middle East within days after rounding South Africa. A second taskforce of 2,500 US marines is sailing from the Pacific and is due to arrive by the end of April. The extra forces may only be available for a short period, creating an extra pressure for their deployment. It is not clear how much longer the USS Gerald R Ford, now in the Red Sea, can remain given the aircraft carrier has been at sea for more than 300 days. A possibility is that the US tries to seize Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal, where 90% of the country’s oil exports are loaded, with the 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division, who have been in the Middle East since the beginning of the month, or with US marines not engaged in enforcing the blockade. But nothing additional would be gained by seizing Kharg, or indeed any other smaller island in the strait of Hormuz relative to the established US blockade. Capturing Kharg may be relatively straightforward given the overwhelming US military might but holding it, and keeping troops supplied and out of danger for months, is more complex. “I suspect they would rather threaten an airborne assault or amphibious assault than actually conduct one,” says Matthew Savill from the Royal United Services Institute. “The US has the capabilities and firepower to do it. But would it be worth it?” The 38 days of bombing by the US and Israel of Iran were one-sided in simple military terms, with Iran’s most effective retaliation against Gulf states. The US carried out 13,000 strikes on Iran, losing one F-15 fighter over the country and two transport aircraft in the ensuing rescue. Israel’s air force dropped 18,000 bombs in 1,000 waves. Even so, Iran’s military capability is not exhausted according to leaked US intelligence assessments. Half of Iran’s missiles and launchers remain intact on one estimate, a similar proportion of its Shahed attack drones, and on Wednesday Iran was able to attack and seize two commercial vessels in the strait. More than 3,000 Iranians have been killed, including the supreme leader Ali Khamenei, but the number of casualties is not overwhelming. Iran’s regime remains intact and regards itself as undefeated; the Revolutionary Guards, now in the driving seat, are in no mood for compromise. It is not obvious how a resumption of US-Israeli bombing can alter the political dynamic, at least for now. Earlier in the month Trump tried to bully Tehran by threatening to attack power plants, bridges and desalination facilities, an extreme threat that was widely condemned and viewed by many legal experts as a war crime. Widespread devastation of Iran’s basic infrastructure would be enduring, but it is not obvious it would produce a willingness to accept US peace terms. Further strikes on Iranian leaders deemed more hardline could easily be counterproductive, adding to the political stasis rather than resolving it. Nor will return to bombing encourage protesters to return to the streets either. Iran’s modern history is defined by an anti-imperialist struggle with the US and beyond trying to inflict economic costs in the strait of Hormuz and the Gulf, Tehran has few good options other than to simply trying to outlast Trump’s attention span. Brian Carter, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, says: “This Iranian regime is so incredibly ideological. The actors that are in power are very committed to ‘wining the war’ and appear willing to suffer extreme economic damage to do so.” There is no prospect of a broader ground invasion either: the US may have more than 50,000 troops in the region but the number is trivial given Iran’s 92m population. Its army, the Artesh, has a total size of 350,000 (including 220,000 conscripts); the Revolutionary Guards a further 150,000 according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Recent studies also indicate that US capabilities are not limitless. This week the US Center for Strategic and International Studies published estimates of US munitions inventories in the wake of Operation Epic Fury, the bombing of Iran. It estimated the US fired more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles, at $2.6m a time, out of 3,100 and over 1,000 JASSM air-to-ground missiles (also costing $2.6m each) out of 4,400. Air defence systems are particularly affected. Somewhere between 190 and 290 Thaad ballistic missile interceptors were used out of 360, at a cost of $15.5m each, and about half of the Pac-3 Patriot missiles, which cost $3.9m and are in high demand globally. High sophistication missiles can take four to five years to replace, and the US has commitments to Taiwan and in east Asia that it wants to retain munitions for. Military logic suggests that the battle of the blockades will go on for some time yet as both the US and Iran try to assert control of the strait of Hormuz, and to see which country recoils first from the economic costs inflicted. But in a tense situation, escalation can easily occur: on Thursday an irascible Trump threatened to blow up any small Iranian boats caught laying mines.

EU formally approves €90bn Ukraine loan and 20th sanctions package against Russia

EU leaders have welcomed the end of diplomatic deadlock over a long-awaited €90bn (£78bn) loan for Ukraine, after the bloc completed the agreement along with a 20th sanctions package against Russia. After weeks of delay, the EU signed off on the loan on Thursday, in time for a summit in Cyprus that began in the evening and will include talks over a dinner with the Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ursula von der Leyen wrote on social media: “We are on our way to Cyprus with good news.” The European Commission president welcomed both agreements, finalised after Hungary lifted its veto. Von der Leyen said: “While Russia doubles down on its aggression, we are doubling down on our support to the brave Ukrainian nation, enabling Ukraine to defend itself and putting pressure on Russia’s war economy.” Speaking later, von der Leyen said she thought it would be possible to disburse the first tranche of the €45bn funding planned for 2026 in this quarter, meaning by the end of June. The first payment, she indicated, would fund Ukraine’s domestic drone production – “drones from Ukraine for Ukraine”. The loan, funded by EU borrowing with the intention that Russian reparations will fund repayments, is expected to provide two-thirds of Ukraine’s financial needs in 2026 and 2027. The latest EU sanctions against Russia – the 20th round since the invasion – blacklist Russian banks and energy companies, as well as entities in the United Arab Emirates, Thailand and China, including Hong Kong, for helping Moscow evade western restrictions. In the first case of its kind, the EU is also imposing a ban on the export of hi-tech machine tools and telecoms equipment to Kyrgyzstan, which is accused of “systematic and persistent” failure to prevent their re-export to Russia, where they are used to make missiles and drones. The former Soviet Republic has previously said it is working to comply with western sanctions. Hungary lifted its vetoes over the long-delayed loan and sanctions after a dispute over a damaged oil pipeline that traverses Ukraine came to an end. Russian oil deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia resumed on Thursday, the Hungarian energy group MOL reported, after both countries – heavily dependent on Russian crude – dropped their objections to EU support for Ukraine. Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister who was defeated by his Conservative rival, Péter Magyar, earlier this month, will not take part in what would have been his final EU summit. Zelenskyy joined the other leaders in the Cypriot resort of Ayia Napa for talks over dinner. “It matters that Ukraine is securing this level of financial certainty,” he wrote on social media highlighting spending priorities that included arms production, “the procurement of necessary weapons from partners that do not yet produce in Ukraine”, and preparing the energy sector for next winter – a response to Russia’s devastating attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in recent months. He told reporters that he wished the incoming Hungarian government all the best, while questioning Orbán’s approach to Ukraine. “Our people need to have strong, warm, good relations,” he said referring to the two countries. “You are neighbours. You have to live in peace.” His team was already in touch with its Hungarian counterparts, he added. Welcoming the agreements, the European Council’s president, António Costa, said “the next step is to open the first cluster of negotiations for the Ukrainian accession to the European Union”. Hungary has also been blocking the opening of “clusters” of negotiating topics that will allow Ukraine to make progress on its application to join the EU. While other member states support the start of talks, many are also wary of any fast-track procedure for Kyiv, which filed its application for EU membership a few days after the full-scale Russian invasion. EU leaders will also discuss how to respond to surging energy prices and the wider ramifications of war in the Middle East, amid uncertainty over a definitive end to the conflict. Regional leaders including the Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun; the Egyptian president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi; the Syrian president, Ahmed al-Sharaa; and the Jordanian crown prince, Hussein bin Abdullah, are expected to take part in discussions on Friday. Speaking earlier this week, before Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, an EU official said the discussion was dependent on “very volatile and fast-paced events” in the Middle East, adding “we certainly hope the ceasefire is kept and maintained”. EU leaders are also expected to discuss ideas to respond to a rise in energy prices, including a proposed cut to electricity taxes and incentives to accelerate the shift to green energy. Despite a boost to wind and solar power since the energy crisis of 2022, the EU has been slower to scale down the use of oil and gas in other parts of the economy, such as transport and housing. The European Commission warned on Wednesday of the EU’s “dangerous dependency on fossil fuels” as it said that the bloc had paid an additional €24bn in oil and gas imports since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in February. Meanwhile, the president of Cyprus, Nikos Christodoulides, has called for a discussion on how to “give substance” to the EU’s mutual assistance clause. Article 42.7 of the EU treaty obliges member states to provide “aid and assistance by all the means in their power” to a fellow member that is a victim of armed aggression on its territory. Cyprus, which is not a member of Nato, wants the EU to take that clause more seriously, after a drone hit a British base on the island in March. The clause has only been activated once, by France after the Paris terrorist attacks of 2015, but many officials are unsure how it works in practice. Other member states want to ensure talks about the pact do not undermine Nato’s mutual defence clause, article 5, at a time when Trump complains frequently about the value of the transatlantic alliance. Gitanas Nausėda, president of Lithuania, a Nato member, said: “For me it is an absolutely crucial thing that article 5 is absolutely key to our defence and security and it will remain so.”