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First wave of Europeans stranded by Iran conflict return home, with hundreds of thousands still left in region – Europe live

The family of the Italian defence minister, who was embarrassingly left stranded in Dubai in first hours of the war, has returned to Italy on last night’s return flight to Rome Fiumicino airport, local media reported. As we reported yesterday, Guido Crosetto returned on Sunday on an Italian state flight, which sparked further criticism, as hundreds of other Italians remain stuck in Dubai while he was evacuated alone. To avoid further backlash, he left his family in Dubai and flew back by himself. He has said he paid for the flight out of his own pocket. “I paid triple with my own money,” he said, citing he had to Dubai ‘‘for personal reasons.’’ But his family has now returned to Italy last night, joining over 120 tourists flying out from Oman, Corriere della Sera reported. Meanwhile, Crosetto was left red-faced as he was questioned in parliament about his Dubai trip and its timing, ultimately apologising for his error of judgment, Corriere said. Opposition lawmakers also argued that the fact that he was caught wrong-footed in Dubai meant that Italy had not been told about the US plans to attack Iran, despite prime minister Meloni’s close relationship with the US president, Donald Trump. But as it turns out, Crosetto was not the only EU minister stuck in Dubai, with the Czech sports minister Boris Šťastný also left stranded in the Gulf, making a complicated trip back last night.

Middle East crisis live: Israel launches fresh attacks on Tehran and Beirut

The Iranian Red Crescent has updated the total death toll in the US-Israeli war on Iran to 787, a more than 40% increase from the humanitarian relief organisation’s earlier numbers. However, in its latest update, the Norway-based human rights group Hengaw said the death toll on day three had reached at least 1,500, including 200 civilians and 1,300 members of the Iranian forces. There have been at 1,039 recordeed attacks on 504 locations, according to the Iranian Red Crescent.

US embassy in Riyadh hit by Iranian drones as Israeli troops enter southern Lebanon

Iranian drones hit the US embassy in Riyadh as Tehran continued to launch waves of retaliatory strikes at the Gulf and Israel, while Israeli soldiers began operating in southern Lebanon on the fourth day of an increasingly regional war in the Middle East. The drone attack on the US embassy in Riyadh caused a minor fire, prompting the diplomatic mission to tell Americans to distance themselves from the compound. The attack followed an earlier Iranian drone strike on the US embassy in Kuwait, as Iran continued to target US bases, facilities and personnel in Arab Gulf states. The pro-Iran group Hezbollah also continued to target Israel, saying it launched two missile salvoes overnight targeting military bases in northern Israel. In response, Israel continued to carry out strikes and issue evacuation orders for villages in south Lebanon, virtually emptying out the country south of the Litani River and turning the southern suburbs of Beirut into a ghost town. On Tuesday morning, the Israeli defence minister, Israel Katz, said he had instructed Israeli soldiers to “hold and advance” into areas of south Lebanon to prevent further Hezbollah fire on northern Israel. It was the first acknowledgment that Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah would not just be aerial but would involve boots on the ground. Meanwhile, US and Israel continued their strikes against Iran, with the US claiming it had destroyed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities. What started as a war between Iran on one side and the US and Israel on the other has turned into a regional conflict with dizzying speed, with new fronts being opened on each day. The US and Israeli air war against Iran began on Saturday with attacks against Tehran, killing the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and prompting Iranian retaliation against Israel and missile attacks at Arab nations with US bases across the region. The fighting expanded rapidly to include at least nine countries and various pro-Iran groups. On Tuesday, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said the war against Iran could take “some time”, saying that while it would not “take years”, it could drag on. “It’s not an endless war,” he told Fox News. The US president, Donald Trump, who has issued a series of contradicting statements regarding the length of the war, also said on Monday that it could take “far longer” than the initially planned month. US officials including the defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, also flirted publicly with the idea of US boots on the ground in Iran, an anathema to analysts, who pointed to the country’s vast, mountainous geography as an obstacle to any troop presence. The secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said the “hardest hits are yet to come”, as administration officials said their plan for the Iran campaign had so far gone better than expected. US officials offered varying justifications for why they launched the war in Iran, with Rubio claiming the US’s hand was forced by Israel. “We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn’t pre-emptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties,” he said. Trump, for his part, has at times said the goal was regime change in Iran, and at other times said he was solely trying to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and curb its ballistic missile programme. Iran has consistently denied it is developing nuclear weapons. Netanyahu was more plain in his objectives, saying the US and Israel were “creating the conditions” for the Iranian people to topple their government. Israeli analysts suggested the Iran campaign came at a good time for Netanyahu and would boost flagging poll numbers before legislative elections. In Iran, explosions were heard overnight across the country and particularly in the capital as the US-Israeli campaign continued. Estimates of people killed in the strikes ranged from 555 people to 1,500, including 165 people in a strike on a girls’ elementary school in southern Iran. Iran continued to shoot bursts of ballistic missiles at Israel, most of which were intercepted. A few missiles broke through the country’s sophisticated missile defence system, killing 11 people in Israel. The US acknowledged the deaths of six soldiers, seemingly killed while stationed in Kuwait. Iran’s strikes against energy infrastructure in the Gulf have paralysed the oil-rich Gulf states, with Qatar announcing a halt to its largest liquid natural gas production facility, while Saudi Arabia ceased operations at its Ras Tanura oil refinery. Global energy prices jumped further after Iran closed the strait of Hormuz, a global chokepoint for hydrocarbons, hitting several ships who attempted to cross. “The strait of Hormuz is closed,” said Brig Gen Ebrahim Jabbari, an adviser to the paramilitary Revolutionary Guards, threatening to bomb ships that tried to cross. “Don’t come to this region.” In Lebanon, Israel signalled that its campaign against Hezbollah could also be a long one. Similar to the war in Lebanon 18 months before, Israel steadily emptied out the south of the country through evacuation warnings, then filled in the areas close to the border with Israeli troops. It was unclear, however, what resistance Hezbollah could offer this time, as Israel has severely degraded the group’s capabilities through two years of daily airstrikes. Over the last two days, Israel has announced the killing of senior leaders in the group, including Hussein Makled, Hezbollah’s intelligence chief. It also targeted the logistical parts of the Lebanese armed group, including the Hezbollah-run bank al-Qard al-Hassan, members of its political bureau, and struck a building belonging to its media channel al-Manar on Tuesday morning. Rights groups have said that it is illegal to attack non-military targets, even if they are affiliated with the group. So far Israeli airstrikes have killed 52 people and displaced at least 29,000 in Lebanon. Hezbollah has continued to attack Israel, announcing that it struck the Ramat David and Meron airbases in northern Israel with one-way drones, and that it had targeted a base in the Golan Heights with rockets. Domestically, Hezbollah has come under fire for pulling Lebanon into a war with Israel, in violation of the government’s stated neutrality. On Monday, Lebanon’s government took the unprecedented step of banning Hezbollah’s military and security activity. The government instructed the judiciary to arrest the individuals responsible for firing rockets at Israel.

Some flights depart Middle East amid travel chaos as US urges its citizens to leave region

Travellers stranded by a widening war in the Middle East began departing the United Arab Emirates onboard a small number of evacuation flights on Monday, as governments around the world worked to extract their citizens from the region. Etihad Airways and Emirates, the airlines based in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, respectively, and the budget carrier FlyDubai said they would operate limited flights after the chaos and damaged caused by Iranian missiles and drones. Since Saturday, at least 11,000 flights into, out of and within the Middle East have been cancelled, affecting more than 1 million passengers, according to the aviation analytics company Cirium. The travel chaos is likely to continue, with the US president, Donald Trump, saying on Monday that the conflict had been projected to last four to five weeks but it could go on longer. Late on Monday the US state department called on Americans to immediately depart more than a dozen countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, amid the worsening conflict triggered by US-Israeli strikes against Iran on Saturday. Mora Namdar, the state department’s assistant secretary for consular affairs, said US citizens should leave using available commercial transportation “due to safety risks”. The US has not organised its own evacuation flights. In the UK, the prime minister, Keir Starmer, said the government was sending rapid deployment teams to the region to support British nationals there, and wanted “to ensure that they can return home as swiftly and safely as possible”. He told MPs: “We’re asking all British citizens in the region to register their presence so we can provide the best possible support and to monitor the Home Office travel advice, which is being regularly updated.” Etihad Airways flight EY67, carrying stranded UK nationals, departed from Abu Dhabi on Monday afternoon and landed at Heathrow on Monday evening, according to the flight tracking company Flightradar24. The UK foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, indicated that 102,000 British nationals had registered their presence in the region, and that about 300,000 British citizens were in Gulf countries being targeted by Iran. Dubai’s government urged passengers on Monday to go to airports only if contacted directly, warning that operations remained limited. At least 16 Etihad flights left Abu Dhabi during a three-hour window on Monday, according to Flightradar24, heading to destinations including Islamabad, Paris, Amsterdam, Mumbai, Moscow and London. The airline’s website, however, said all its regularly scheduled commercial flights remained suspended until Wednesday afternoon. Emirates said customers with earlier bookings would get priority for seats onboard the limited flights it planned to operate starting Monday evening. FlyDubai said it would operate four flights departing the city and another five arriving planes on Monday, adding that schedules could quickly change as the situation evolved. The select departures brought some relief but did not indicate a return to business as usual. Airspace closures remained in effect for Iran, Iraq and Israel, and Jordan instituted one starting on Monday and lasting overnight. Total or partial closures in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Syria were expected to expire on Monday but could be expanded, according to Flightradar24. Even when the restrictions are lifted, commercial flights may not immediately resume. Airlines that operate evacuation flights are doing so with government backing, and the carriers’ home countries may be assuming part of the financial risk, said Henry Harteveldt, the president of travel market research company Atmosphere Research Group. “If the countries reopen their airspace, that certainly is helpful,” Harteveldt said. “But airlines aren’t going to resume operations until they are fully confident that there is a zero – or as close as possible to zero – risk that their aircraft will be attacked.” Germany’s foreign ministry said about 30,000 tourists from the country were stranded on cruise ships, in hotels or at closed airports in the Middle East. The government said it planned to send aircraft to Oman and Saudi Arabia to evacuate ill travellers, children and pregnant people while working with airlines to assist others. On Tuesday morning, Europe’s biggest holidays company, Tui, said it would begin to offer flights back home for its 10,000 customers stranded in the Middle East from Tuesday working with Etihad, Emirates and Qatar Airways. “We expect to carry out the first flights today with these companies to return our guests,” its chief executive, Sebastian Ebel, told broadcaster NTV. The Philippines upgraded its travel advisory on Monday for the United Arab Emirates, placing it – along with Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia – at a level that automatically triggers a deployment ban on newly hired Filipino workers, the country’s foreign affairs department said. Indonesia said more than 58,000 of its citizens were stranded in Saudi Arabia, where they were visiting Islam’s holy sites in Mecca and Medina during Ramadan. “It has become an urgent humanitarian and logistical issue,” said Ichsan Marsha, spokesperson for Indonesia’s Ministry of Hajj and Umrah, which was coordinating with the Saudi authorities, airlines and Indonesian travel operators to arrange alternative routes or rescheduled flights. About 2,000 South Koreans were stranded in Dubai, a South Korean lawmaker said on Tuesday. Kim Young-bae of the ruling Democratic party said the foreign ministry was working to secure their return. The Czech Republic said it was sending several planes to Egypt, Jordan and Oman to bring home citizens from Israel and surrounding countries. Leela Rao, a 29-year-old law student at Georgetown University in Washington, made it on to one of Monday’s Etihad flights. She said she learned of the airstrikes while waiting to make a connection in Abu Dhabi on Saturday and spent hours at the airport after news updates, hearing explosions and receiving shelter-in-place alerts before the airline arranged a hotel stay in Dubai. “I am feeling so, so, so grateful,” Rao said via text message after arriving in Delhi in time for a friend’s wedding. “Everyone clapped when we landed.” Associated Press, Press Association and Agence France-Presse contributed to this report

Nepal’s gen-Z election: can popular former rapper Balen topple a veteran political heavyweight?

In the unassuming, dusty lanes of the Nepali city of Damak, an unprecedented political showdown is unfolding. Pitting an old political heavyweight against a rapper-turned-politician with a penchant for dark sunglasses and sharp suits, the battle is one that could completely reshape the country’s politics. As Nepal heads into its most gripping election in years, at the forefront stands Balendra Shah, the 35-year-old known simply as Balen. He rose to fame as a popular rapper whose songs criticised the ruling elite, before pivoting to politics and winning a resounding victory to become the mayor of Kathmandu in May 2022. Yet it was after Nepal witnessed the bloodiest day of protest in recent history – when a gen-Z uprising last September against corruption and a social media ban was responded to with police brutality and live fire across the country – that Balen emerged as a nationally popular and unifying figure, particularly among a Nepali youth widely enraged at a political system they feel is broken and unrepresentative. The protests and ensuing violence left more than 70 dead and quickly brought down the communist government of the veteran prime minister KP Oli Sharma, which had long been dogged by allegations of corruption, nepotism and elitism. Balen was the favoured choice by gen-Z leaders to step in as interim leader but he declined, opting to wait and fight it out at the ballot box. “As mayor, Balen showed he could transform governance,” said Parbat Basnet, a 24-year-old business graduate and one of the leaders of the gen-Z uprising in Damak, which was also met with police firing. “He could have accepted an unelected position of power after the protests but instead he chose the democratic path. He wants to defeat corrupt leaders through the ballot box so that both leaders and voters change their mindset.” To many in Nepal – particularly the 46% of the population who are below the age of 24 – this week’s polls are a crucial test of whether the frustrations and demands that fuelled the gen-Z uprising can be harnessed into sustained political change, or whether the old guard will simply reclaim their thrones. Basnet emphasised that the aftermath of the uprising was not only felt among the young in the election. Nepal’s unwieldy electoral system has entrenched an endless cycle of weak coalition governments and widespread election fatigue; the country has had 31 prime ministers in 35 years, including several who came back repeatedly. “But the energy in this election is different,” said Basnat. “Even old voters are finally questioning leaders: where is the gas pipeline you promised? Where is the railway? Where is the development you spoke about?” “Earlier, leaders were treated like gods. Now people are demanding accountability.” Nowhere is this more palpable than the constituency of Jhapa-5 and its central city of Damak. For years, this region has been the stronghold of the four-time prime minister Oli and his Communist party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), known as UML. After Oli announced that he would be rerunning for office yet again, despite his unceremonious toppling six months ago, Balen resigned as Kathamndu mayor and announced he would directly contest Oli’s seat and run for prime minister. Since then, Balen’s status has soared to meteoric heights and the “Balen effect” appeared infectious across Jhapa-5. At a roadshow in Damak, huge crowds gathered on the roads, on balconies, rooftops and standing on trucks, and there was a surge to try to touch Balen as he emerged from the roof window of his campaign truck dressed in his signature black suit and shades. Women who could not reach him for selfies collapsed in tears. Sarita Baral, 23, was among those who snapped a prized rally selfie. Prior to the gen-Z protests, she said she had little political engagement, but that had all changed. Now she wanted to fight for a country where most of the youth did not have to travel to exploitative jobs abroad, in places such as the Gulf, in order to find employment. “Young people in Nepal are very supportive of Balen because we want change, we want job opportunities and an end to corruption,” said Baral. “Balen is different from other politicians, doesn’t make big promises and he seems brave. He could have contested from any constituency, but he chose Jhapa-5 to fight KP Oli. That itself makes us feel that he is a bold leader.” The contrast to Oli’s campaign was stark. As his campaign motorcade drove through Damak it was largely ignored. Speaking to the Guardian in rare comments from his home in the city, Oli remained largely unrepentant about the violence unleashed on gen-Z protests against his government. “Young people were misled, they were brought out into the streets and then their movement was hijacked by criminals,” said Oli. “This was a conspiracy to topple my government. Yes it was a matter of sorrow, I was very sad that people died. But their conspiracy was greater than our preparation, they wanted to burn the country.” After he resigned, Oli was not seen publicly for weeks, but he denied fleeing or going into hiding. “This is bad propaganda,” he said, adding that there was “no doubt” that he could win. Oli’s UML does retain strong loyalty, particularly in more rural areas of Jhapa-5 where he has won six times. There have also been concerns raised over Balen’s campaigning style as well as his history of volatile social media posts and impulsive tendencies, which some fear could have geopolitical implications for a small country land-locked between China and India. Balen has largely shunned interviews in mainstream media in favour of social media posts, where he has millions of followers, and his team did not respond to requests from the Guardian. Out on the campaign trail, his campaigning style is unconventional and his interactions with voters are largely brief, leading to accusations that he is shying away from any difficult questions. On the rare occasions Balen has addressed crowds, his remarks have lasted no more than three minutes. His silence appeared to rile some in Jhapa. During an appearance at Gaurigunj, a small town about 20 miles from Damak, he simply smiled at the crowds and then moved on. “He walks from place to place but doesn’t speak at all,” said Buddhimaya Kerung, 47. “If he wins, will it be even harder to hear him?” It was just a few months ago, just before midnight, that Balen posted on Facebook “Fuck America, Fuck India, Fuck China” as well as other Nepali political parties. He deleted his post but his lack of transparency on his foreign policy strategy, and how he intends to manage Nepal’s delicate tussle between overpowering Indian and Chinese interests remains a concern for some voters. “Balen is not easily accessible, you cannot really ask him questions anywhere. He waves to the crowd, stands on stage, and that’s it,” said Kumar Khatiwada, 62, who said he would be voting for Oli. For the gen-Z figures backing Balen, they too acknowledged that for all the hype, he remained untested on the national stage. “Yes, expectations are high but I am not blindly following him because he is a celebrity or a rapper” said Basnet. “If he does well, I will support him. If he fails, I will question him. We must never stop questioning our leaders.”

Tuesday briefing: ‘An historic rupture’ as the Middle East crisis spreads

Good morning. The regional war many countries had long feared is here. On Saturday, global attention turned to Iran after an extraordinary joint aerial assault by the US and Israel. The intense bombardment was followed with news of the assassination of the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with large numbers of Iran’s military and political leadership. Before the world had time to absorb that shock, Iran retaliated, striking not only Israel and US targets but also its Gulf neighbours. There are reports of attacks on American military bases across the Gulf and the US embassy in Riyadh, as well as damage to civilian infrastructure such as hotels. Tens of thousands of Britons in the region are trapped in an increasingly dangerous and rapidly escalating situation. Markets and governments alike are bracing for potential spikes in oil and energy prices as the fallout spreads beyond the battlefield. What happens next, and how much this conflict could escalate, is the question on many of our minds. To help unpack that, I spoke to Julian Borger, the Guardian’s senior international correspondent. That’s after the headlines. Five big stories Middle East | Israel’s determination to attack Iran and the certainty US troops would be targeted in response forced the Trump administration to take pre-emptive strikes, Marco Rubio said, in a new explanation for Washington’s surprise entry into the conflict. Travel | More than 100,000 Britons were stranded in the Gulf on Monday, with airspace in the region still closed to most flights and overland evacuation regarded as risky. UK politics | Nigel Farage has been accused of Donald Trump-style election denial by the Green party’s new MP for Gorton and Denton, after he claimed her Reform rival “came first” among British-born voters in last week’s byelection. UK news | Scotland has become the first part of the UK to legalise hydrolysis, an environmentally friendly alternative to cremation or burial, reflecting increasing demand for more sustainable funeral arrangements. Environment | UK programmes to protect nature and the climate in developing countries are suffering budget cuts despite ministers’ promises, the Guardian has learned. In depth: A threat to stability across all of the Middle East The US-Israeli bombing campaign inside Iran has been vast and intensive, with a swift, expansive response from Iran – rapidly taking the conflict beyond its initial targets, drawing in countries across the Middle East. Hours after the US-Israeli attack, Iranian missiles and drones were launched at Israeli and American bases across the Gulf – including in Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. In a joint statement, Gulf states alongside the US strongly condemned what they described as Iran’s “indiscriminate and reckless missile and drone attacks”, warning they threatened wider regional stability. “This moment is one of those you think has been coming for a long time and everyone has braced for it, but when it actually happens it still feels extraordinary,” Julian Borger says, describing the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who dominated Iranian politics for 36 years, as “an historic rupture”. Uncertainty remains about his successor, the capacity of any opposition to take control of the state, and the ultimate objectives of the US and Israel. Borger told me of his fears for ordinary Iranians, caught between an authoritarian regime and sustained US-Israeli bombardment. “If the country fractures, you could see a Libya-style collapse,” Julian says. “Iran is a large multi-ethnic state with disparate regions: Baluchis, Arabs in the south-west, and other minorities. There are separatist movements, and external powers may encourage them.” *** Why is Iran targeting the Gulf? Julian says Iran has targeted the Gulf, in part, to build international pressure on the US. “Iran is trying to impose costs on the United States indirectly,” he explains. “The hope is that Gulf governments will pressure Washington to stop.” At the same time, Iran has sought to reassure neighbouring states that they are not the intended enemy. As Julian puts it, Iran’s message is: “This isn’t about you, it’s about America and Israel.” But, he adds: “It’s a high-risk strategy because it risks turning Gulf states against Iran entirely. Instead of blaming the US or Israel, they start seeing Iran itself as the main threat.” While damage to infrastructure has been limited, the attacks threaten an image the Gulf has spent decades and billions constructing – as a beacon of wealth and stability. Now, a UN nuclear expert is warning that the mass evacuation of cities across the Middle East may be necessary if civil nuclear power stations are attacked, as this could lead to radiological release. “The Gulf sells itself as a sanctuary with western money, western expatriates and absolute stability,” Julian explains. “The image it projects is that nothing bad happens here, but attacks puncture that.” The UK Foreign Office is drawing up contingency plans to evacuate tens of thousands of British citizens should the conflict escalate further. Many Britons remain stranded in Dubai and elsewhere across the region. If the fighting can be contained, Julian says Gulf states may recover quickly. “But if it drags on, that reputation for safety takes a real hit.” And the conflict has gone beyond the region. Iranian drones have been launched at RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus. Soon after, the UK, France and Germany said they had launched defensive action to protect their interests in the region and their Gulf allies. *** What is the impact on the US? So far, Iranian attacks have inflicted limited direct damage on the US. Six American soldiers have been killed, and three US aircraft have been shot down, reportedly from friendly fire. “For years, American planners war gamed this scenario,” Julian says. “Every time they ran those simulations, at least one American warship sank. The assumption was that Iran would unleash massive drone swarms, aerial drones, underwater drones, surface drones, overwhelming US defences. That hasn’t happened yet.” What is clear is that Washington seems to have little appetite for a prolonged conflict. “Donald Trump treats politics episodically,” Julian says. “Each crisis becomes another instalment of the Trump show. He will want a quick ending that he can present as victory.” As the conflict widens, events may quickly move beyond the control of any single actor. “But it doesn’t take much going wrong for public opinion to turn. Approval for this operation is already low.” At the same time, the US will be closely watching how much pressure its Gulf allies are willing to absorb. There have been conflicting reports about Saudi Arabia’s position: the Washington Post reported that Riyadh had lobbied in favour of military action, a claim Saudi officials swiftly denied. *** What is the cost of war? The economic consequences of the conflict are already rippling far beyond the battlefield. “Insurance markets and shipping companies are extremely risk-averse. Even the perception of danger raises prices immediately,” Julian says. Iranian strikes have been reported in Saudi Arabia, where officials said a fire at an oil refinery is “under control”, and at a major gas processing plant in Qatar. Both facilities have halted production, which could disrupt energy supply. Gas prices surged sharply, at one point rising by as much as 42% in Europe, as traders priced in the risk of a prolonged conflict in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. “Iran is targeting energy infrastructure because Trump is already politically vulnerable on cost of living issues,” Julian says. “A new oil shock would be damaging.” And, of course, there is the human toll. The Iranian Red Crescent Society says at least 555 people have been killed in US-Israeli attacks across 131 cities since Saturday. Israel has reported 10 deaths from Iranian attacks and there have been three fatalities in the Gulf. On Monday, Hezbollah launched missiles and drones toward Israel in retaliation for the killing of Khamenei. Israeli airstrikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon (pictured above) killed at least 31 people and injured 149 others, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. For now, Julian said, there are no clear signs the Iranian regime is collapsing. “Trump’s message was essentially: we bomb, then the people rise. Whether that happens remains uncertain.” What else we’ve been reading Formerly of this parish, Archie Bland writes – in gentle praise and no little relief – on the return of Ms Rachel, the queen of children’s edutainment. Martin If you weren’t already concerned about AI and the absence of meaningful oversight, you will be after reading this chilling piece by a member of Meta’s oversight board. Aamna The tech talk is a bit beyond me, but I was still fascinated by this blog post, about someone using data to empirically prove the longest line of sight on Earth – it is between the Himalayas and Pik Dankova in Kyrgyzstan. Martin There will be plenty of analysis of the extraordinary events unfolding in the Middle East. But sometimes a single image, like Jason White’s cartoon about the US-Israel strikes on Iran, captures it more sharply than a thousand words. Aamna “Part modern circus, part dance, part cabaret” – Imogen Tilden explores the impressive-sounding immersive theatre production Walk My World in Budapest. Martin Sport Football | Jurriën Timber says Arsenal’s players can feel the anxiety of the Emirates Stadium crowd and must find a way to handle it as they chase a first Premier League title since 2004. Football | Tributes are being paid after the death of the trailblazing footballer Lynda Hale, who scored in England’s first official women’s international fixture. Six Nations | Steve Borthwick is ready to radically overhaul his misfiring England side for the Six Nations clash against Italy on Saturday, with Fin Smith expected to be handed the No 10 jersey. The front pages “Fears grow as Iran conflict spreads across Middle East” is the Guardian top story. The FT splash says “Iran turns fire on global energy supply” and the Mirror has “Middle East in flames”. The i paper leads on “Starmer and Trump clash on Ayatollah’s assassination and war with Iran”, the Telegraph has “I am very disappointed in Keir” and the Sun frames it as “Inaction this day”. The Mail headlines on “US lambasts ‘hand-wringing, pearl-clutching’ Starmer as Kemi says he’s ‘scared’ of his own voters”, and the Times has “Big strike coming, says US”. Today in Focus Chaos in the Gulf After the US and Israel assassinated Iran’s supreme leader, Tehran has hit back. Missiles have rained down on the Gulf. Will the region retaliate? Julian Borger reports. Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad Half a century after his last UK visit, the Japanese guitar legend Masayoshi Takanaka is finally returning – and demand has been so intense that his London date was upgraded to Brixton Academy to fit the crowds. Takanaka (pictured above with his signature guitar) first toured the UK in 1972 with Sadistic Mika Band, before building a hugely successful solo career at home. Now, streaming and viral clips have won him global acclaim, and led to sold-out shows and festival slots on a tour that has taken him to the UK, US, Australia and New Zealand. “In Japan, most of the people at my shows are in their 50s, 60s or 70s,” he says in this interview. “But in LA, most people were in their 20s. You could really feel their energy, and hear the audience cheering so loud. It got me really emotional.” Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

‘They say you have to buy blessings’: the London women who gave everything to a controversial church

“Sometimes you’re seeing God as a genie, where if I give him all this money, He will bring me what I want,” Sarah says. The 27-year-old spent years in the grip of “prosperity gospel”, whose followers believe cash donations to evangelical churches unlock divine blessings of health and wealth. So did Jennifer*, 29, who says she handed over her life savings. Both women are professionals from London and former members of the Universal Church of the Kingdom of God (UCKG), an international evangelical movement and UK-registered charity whose cases have recently been investigated by the Fundraising Regulator (FR). The regulator found in February that, in Jennifer’s case, UCKG had breached the fundraising code as it was “aware” of previous mental health difficulties she had experienced when it took a “large donation” from her and “could not show that it had otherwise considered” her needs or circumstances. UCKG did not have policies in place regarding vulnerable donors, the regulator found, and urged them to consider paying back Jennifer’s donation, which she says was £15,000. Jennifer said: “Every service they showed videos of how people had given their all, how people had given money, sold things or slept on the floor, and then they received the Holy Spirit and that gave them peace. “I considered my all was everything I had: my savings, my current account, change I had collected. I had a help-to-buy Isa, I closed that to give them that money, and filled up an envelope with 1ps and 2ps. “I was not in the right state of mind. I do believe I was financially coerced and controlled.” Jennifer says she hoped the £15,000 donation would prove she “had received the Holy Spirit” and help her ascend through UCKG volunteer ranks to the “best position” of pastor’s wife. She estimates she gave more than £38,000 to UCKG over eight years, says she felt isolated from friends and family, and has alleged that the UCKG forbade dating or marriage outside the membership and arranged marriages to pastors, as well as encouraging members to give them money to attract divine favour. The regulator’s report said: “In terms of [Jennifer’s] large donation, we found the charity in breach of the code as it did not give any consideration to the possibility the donor could be in vulnerable circumstances. Therefore, we recommend that the charity’s trustees consider whether it should refund any of the donor’s donations and explain their considerations in reaching their decision to the complainant. “The charity may wish to seek professional advice to assist it in reaching a decision. If trustees decide to issue a refund, depending on the rationale for their decision, they may need authorisation from the Charity Commission for England and Wales.” UCKG has denied the claims, saying it is committed to the highest standards of governance. A spokesperson said its charitable work included 14 food banks in London and helping 100,000 people in Ukraine, and involved volunteers supporting care homes, hospitals and vulnerable families in 38 cities. In Sarah’s case, FR found UCKG had breached the fundraising code by “not having a clear and publicly available complaints procedure” or “meeting all legal requirements” for data protection, after she complained UCKG contacted her twice after she left and had asked not to be approached. Both women are supported by the Surviving Universal UK support group for former members, led by the whistleblower Rachael Reign. FR has no powers of sanction, but the women are urging ministers to take tougher action against “high control” religious groups, which are not restricted by specific legal provisions. UCKG reported a UK income of more than £15m in the most recent financial year, £13m of that from donations. In 2022 former followers told the Guardian they had felt pressure to give tithes – 10% of their income. Reign said: “We receive at least five new referrals a week about UCKG – people looking to leave, people who have left, parents and caregivers. “In healthy churches, there’s a doctrine of grace, that God’s love is free of charge. In the UCKD, if you want to be saved, if you want to be healed, if you want to receive any kind of success, you have to buy your blessings. “High control groups don’t discriminate – we all have unmet needs and they target people who are passionate.” A UCKG spokesperson said they “strongly refute” the allegations, saying they “do not reflect the experience of the vast majority of our 5,000-plus members across 38 branches in the UK”. They added: “We are working constructively with the regulator to update policies, strengthen governance, and ensure full compliance. While we may not agree with every aspect of the recent findings, we respect the regulator’s role and remain committed to transparency and accountability. “Tithes and donations are voluntary and based on longstanding Christian teaching. No one is pressured to give, and members are free to make their own financial and personal decisions. “UCKG does not control members’ relationships, clothing, finances, or personal lives. We do not arrange marriages, impose dress codes, or isolate individuals from family or friends. Members are free to come and go as they choose.” Name has been changed

US and Israel offer shifting justifications for Iran war: what we know on day four

The United States attacked Iran after learning that ally Israel was going to strike, which would have meant retaliation against US forces, secretary of state Marco Rubio said. “We knew that if we didn’t pre-emptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties,” Rubio told reporters. The justification for the attack differs from justifications given by Donald Trump and defence secretary Pete Hegseth. Rubio also said the “hardest hits” are yet to come from the US military. “The next phase will be even more punishing on Iran than it is right now,” he told reporters. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war against Iran may take “some time” but it will not take years. He told Fox News: “I said it could be quick and decisive. It may take some time, but it’s not going to take years. It’s not an endless war.” Trump signalled that US strikes on Iran could go much longer than originally predicted. He initially projected the war to last four to five weeks, but added it could go on longer, and has since sought to justify a broad, open-ended conflict. The president laid out what he said were four key objectives for hitting Iran: “First, we’re destroying Iran’s missile capabilities … Second, we’re annihilating their navy... Third, we’re ensuring that the world’s number-one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon. Finally we are ensuring the Iranian regime can’t continue to arm, fund and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders.” The US embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia was hit by a drone strike, causing a fire to break out. The state department has urged Americans to immediately leave more than a dozen countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, amid the worsening conflict. Mora Namdar, the state department’s assistant secretary for consular affairs, said US citizens should leave using available commercial transportation “due to safety risks”. The US has not organised its own evacuation flights. There was confusion over the status of navigation in the strait of Hormuz after a general in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards threatened to “burn any ship” seeking to navigate the waterway, a vital route for oil and gas shipments. However, US Central Command said the strait was not closed, according to Fox News. The Israeli military said it began a new wave of strikes on Tehran early on Tuesday. This came shortly after the military issued an evacuation warning for Tehran residents, especially those located near the headquarters of Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB. Israel’s military said in the early hours of Tuesday that it was working to intercept a new wave of missiles launched from Iran, warning residents in multiple locations to seek shelter. The Iranian Red Crescent Society said that at least 555 people had been killed across Iran. However, in its latest update, the Norway-based human rights group Hengaw said the death toll on day three had reached at least 1,500, including 200 civilians and 1,300 members of the Iranian forces. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has said that “49 of the most senior Iranian regime leaders” have been killed in the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, declaring that “killing terrorists is good for America”. That number includes supreme leader Ali Khamenei. The number of US service members killed in Iran has risen to six, the US military said on Monday. The US military said that it has struck over 1,250 targets in Iran since operations started on Saturday. UK prime minister Keir Starmer said that his government does not “believe in regime change from the skies” as he set out to parliament why Britain will not join its closest military partner in offensive action against Iran – suggesting that to do so would be unlawful.