Read the daily news to learn English

Middle East crisis live: Iran’s top negotiator says US aiming to force Tehran’s ‘surrender’

Earlier, Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that a deal with Iran to end the war was “very possible” following “very good talks” over the past 24 hours. Repeating his usual lines about how “badly” Iran “wants to make a deal” and how the US has “won” the war after decimating Tehran’s military capabilities, Trump added: We’ll see whether or not they are agreeing. And if they don’t agree, they’ll end up agreeing shortly thereafter. That’s the way it is. The US president was later asked a question on getting enriched uranium from Iran as he left an event in the East Room of the White House. “We’re going to get it,” Trump told the reporter. Asked how the United States would do this, Trump repeated: “We’re going to get it.”

Keep quiet ‘so we don’t go to jail’: the Israelis charged with bribery after suspicious bets placed on Iran strikes

Since users of the leading prediction market Polymarket have been able to wager on the outcomes of war, fears have been raised that those betting on bombs falling from the sky may be privy to non-public information about military strikes. There has been much reported about suspicions of insider trading on war, but who exactly is believed to be placing these bets has remained unclear. In February, Israeli authorities charged two suspects with committing security offences, bribery and obstruction of justice, alleging they used classified information to bet on the timing of military operations on Polymarket. The claims in the indictment follow reporting in the Guardian in January, which revealed a cluster of jointly funded Polymarket accounts wagering on strikes involving Iran and Israel between June 2025 and January 2026, generating profits of about $156,000, according to publicly available blockchain data. Since then, there have been growing reports of possible insider trading on prediction markets – where traders can bet using crypto wallets, particularly around the Iran war, with suspicious accounts racking up millions of dollars in profits. Now, after local journalists successfully appealed to narrow a gag order, Tel Aviv court documents allege more about the people who prosecutors say have profited by betting on lethal military strikes and how they received their information. The documents reveal that one suspect is Omer Ziv, 30, from Tel Aviv. Social media accounts belonging to Omer Ziv – that match details from the indictment and blockchain data, including photos, date of birth and interests – say that Ziv has worked as an affiliate marketing manager in the online gambling industry for eight years, according to LinkedIn. Account activity also suggests he’s a fan of prediction markets; Ziv frequently responded to Kalshi company announcements and was recommended by other users for a chief of staff position at the firm. Days before the arrest, a Kalshi executive unveiled new markets allowing traders to bet on whether crypto prices would rise or fall within 15 minutes. Ziv commented asking when they might shrink to one-minute intervals – “asking for a degen friend”. (“Degen” is internet slang for a person who engages in high-risk and speculative trading.) The account has been inactive since. It is not known whether the transactions on the accounts linked to Ziv are, as prosecutors allege, the result of any illegality. The second defendant is a major in the Israeli air force reserves, whose identity, including details relating to his position, will remain undisclosed on national security grounds, the judge ruled. Prosecutors have summoned 45 witnesses to testify before court. Both defendants have been ordered to remain in custody until the end of the trial. Besides the indictment and the gag order decision, no further court documents have been released as of yet – standard for classified trials, experts in Israeli law told the Guardian. Ziv’s lawyer did not respond to multiple requests for comment. The major’s lawyers declined to comment. The defendants’ pleas are not yet publicly known. Other reservists were also arrested on suspicion of similar crimes, but were released according to a February statement by Israeli authorities. Both defendants have argued this amounts to selective enforcement – defences they seek to assert in court, according to the decision document. In a statement shared with NBC News at the time of arrest, the major’s lawyers said their client had made “significant contributions to the security of the state”, adding they had “strong allegations” about the indictment – including the improper conduct of the investigative authorities, which led to a violation of security. “We are convinced that after these are presented, the case will end in a completely different way than when it was opened,” Ran Cohen Rochverger and Naor Alon Sosnosky said. There’s been just one other arrest over suspected betting using classified information: federal authorities charged a US soldier on Thursday with insider trading relating to the removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro from office. The differing charges – one state alleging fraud, the other espionage – underscores the lack of legal precedent when it comes to war gambling. The cases offer a rare window into how these platforms might be used to leverage the secrets of war to turn a profit. In June 2025, a market on Polymarket caught Ziv’s attention, the indictment alleges. “Israeli military action against Iran before July?” Ziv had previously been acquainted with a major in the Israeli air force, according to the indictment. A reservist since 2009, he is the unnamed defendant also being prosecuted. The pair allegedly met while working at a gaming tech company. Ziv brought the Polymarket question to the major’s attention, prosecutors say. The following day, 10 June, the major began active emergency service. The pair allegedly agreed that the major would share confidential information about the timing of military action, while Ziv would place bets using his own funds across multiple newly created Polymarket accounts with vague usernames. Three of the four Polymarket accounts attributed to Ziv in the indictment match the Guardian’s earlier reporting, with corresponding usernames, dates and profits. The Guardian identified a crypto wallet that funded the Polymarket accounts that also contains five video clips, in NFT format, that appear to show Ziv. On 12 June, at an air force base in southern Israel, the major was allegedly briefed that “Operation Roaring Lion” would begin before midnight. He relayed the information to Ziv via WhatsApp, urging him to increase his bets, according to the indictment. In a separate group chat, prosecutors say Ziv told five friends that a strike was imminent, but warned them to keep quiet, “so we don’t go to jail”. Allegations about what role, if any, the major played in the operation remain under seal, but he is a senior ranked official. That evening, as the jets took off, he allegedly typed to Ziv: “It’s already happening.” Shortly after midnight, Tehran awoke to explosions. About 200 Israeli jets struck more than 100 targets across the city. The indictment alleges that Ziv sent the major a screenshot over WhatsApp showing the bets had paid off: roughly $128,000 in gains, split between them. It marked the beginning of the 12-day war, during which the pair allegedly placed three further bets tied to the timing of Israeli and US military actions. The conflict killed more than 1,000 people and injured more than 7,000. The pair’s total profits allegedly reached just over $152,000 that month, according to the indictment. This aligns with the username, dates and profits of bets reported by the Guardian. Within a day of the major returning from base, the two met, according to the indictment. Prosecutors said Ziv helped him set up a crypto wallet to receive his share, which was later converted into cash. They then returned to their separate lives, the indictment says. They allegedly reconnected in September, when the major was again summoned for “operational activities”, this time during Israeli strikes on Houthi-controlled targets in Yemen. These bets were placed using a new account titled “Methuselah”, named after the oldest human in the Bible, who lived for 969 years. Next, in early January 2026, he allegedly told Ziv that tensions were “heating up” and believed strikes on Iran would happen that month. But this time, suspicion spread. Polymarket users began speculating on social media that these bets appeared to be informed by insider knowledge. Alarmed, Ziv cancelled positions and changed usernames, prosecutors allege. The pair deleted WhatsApp messages and wiped photos, fearing an investigation, according to the indictment. Later that month, Ziv travelled to Barcelona for an online gambling conference, according to his social media. In one photo, he stands with colleagues, arms slung around shoulders, all smiling. Then his account went silent. Two days after that photo was shared, Ziv was arrested. The major was detained shortly afterwards. Blockchains, which allow users to remain anonymous, are also permanent ledgers. Every transaction is recorded, timestamped and publicly accessible. When those transactions intersect with centralized exchanges such as Coinbase or Binance, which require identity verification, authorities can subpoena user details. Israeli prosecutors have charged both men with bribery, security offences and obstruction of justice. Ziv faces an additional charge of aggravated espionage – the unauthorized collection of secret information with intent to harm national security – which carries a potential life sentence. Only a handful of Israelis have ever been convicted of aggravated espionage. In 1988, a nuclear technician leaked details of Israel’s weapons programme to the Sunday Times and was sentenced to 18 years in prison, much of it in solitary confinement. During the cold war, two academics were convicted of spying for the Soviet Union. The press was initially restricted in reporting Ziv’s identity but the judge ruled on 27 March that “public hearings are the lifeblood of the democratic regime” suspended only in “exceptional circumstances”, lifting a publication ban on Ziv’s identity. The major’s identity remains anonymous. “Due to his alleged knowledge of military secrets and role in attacks, naming the major would put him in grave danger,” said Prof Zohar Goshen, co-director of Columbia University’s Center for Israeli Legal Studies. The case raises broader security and ethical concerns about the rise of bets tied to military action on Polymarket, which did not respond to requests for comment. Unlike the political motivations of spies and whistleblowers, war markets risk incentivizing sensitive intelligence to be divulged anonymously for profit. It also underscores how these markets blur the line between speculation and exploitation – turning death and destruction into financial derivatives. All quotations from court documents have been translated from Hebrew by the Guardian

Trump tells Iran to accept deal or face new wave of US bombing

Donald Trump has issued a fresh ultimatum to Iran, telling it to accept a deal to end the war or face a new wave of US bombing “at a much higher level and intensity than it was before”. The announcement on social media on Wednesday was the latest in a rapid series of dramatic and often contradictory changes in policy and came amid unconfirmed reports of progress in stalled negotiations between Tehran and Washington. “Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is perhaps a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end,” the US president posted on his Truth Social platform, referring to the military operation he launched with Israel against Iran in February. “If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.” Benjamin Netanyahu, who was to talk to Trump on Wednesday evening, said in a video released by his office that Israel was “prepared for all scenarios”. Iran’s most senior negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, remained defiant on Wednesday, saying Washington was seeking Tehran’s surrender through various means including a naval blockade. “The enemy, in its new design, is seeking, through a naval blockade, economic pressure and media manipulation, to destroy the country’s cohesion in order to force us to surrender,” Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, said in a voice message published on his official Telegram channel. Earlier on Wednesday, Axios reported that Washington and Tehran were close to agreeing on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war. The US-based news outlet reported that the US expected Iran to respond to several key points in the next 48 hours and that while nothing had yet been agreed, this was the closest the parties had been to a deal. Officials in Pakistan told the Guardian that an initial framework could possibly be agreed within 48 hours but that nothing was certain and that talks remained “difficult”. Late on Tuesday, Trump abruptly ordered an indefinite pause to a naval effort to guide stranded commercial ships through the strait of Hormuz. More than 800 ships and roughly 20,000 crew members remain stranded west of the narrow waterway. Iran has threatened to deploy mines, drones, missiles and fast-attack craft, making passage through the strait too risky for commercial shipping and raising fuel prices around the world. Trump wrote on social media that the decision to halt the new naval effort, called Project Freedom, just a day after it began came after requests from “mediator Pakistan and other countries”. He posted: “Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement.” The US president said Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports, which is aimed at forcing Iran to make concessions in negotiations to end the war, would remain in place. Trump, who is due to visit Beijing next week, has often threatened in recent weeks to restart the joint US-Israeli air offensive against Iran, but has also repeatedly indicated his desire for a negotiated end to the conflict. Analysts suggested the US president may be seeking something that could be portrayed as a breakthrough before arriving in Beijing. China called on Monday for a comprehensive ceasefire in the Iran war. Beijing has close economic and political ties to Tehran but has failed to exert significant leverage over the radical Islamist Iranian regime since the war began. The Trump administration may want China to exploit that relationship to convince Iran to open the strait. Trump’s trip will be his first visit to China during his second term and the first by a US president since his previous visit, in 2017. A senior Pakistani political source described “things … moving forward” with a focus in talks on obtaining a permanent ceasefire and “opening of the strait of Hormuz by both, at least for 60 days”. The source added: “That gives a chance for both parties to talk out all important matters, including uranium enrichment. But nothing is finalised yet. Things are under discussion. We expect something to come out before the US president visits China.”. Another Pakistani official said there was still a lack of trust between Iran and the US. “There is still ambiguity in talks and nothing is completely decided. It is still 50/50 and things can go either way,” they said. “The moment the US ends the blockade and the strait of Hormuz remains open, that will be the beginning of real talks. As long as there is a blockade from both sides, talks remain difficult. That’s why a framework of understanding to end the blockade for at least 30 to 60 days for further negotiations is important. It can be a trust-building measure.” Analysts say an external guarantor of any deal is essential. The official said: “Pakistan and Iran both want China to become a guarantor but … does China even have that power over both parties? Everyone has their doubts.” The news of a possible deal sent the price of oil tumbling, after it had jumped as much as 6% earlier in the week on the latest attacks in the Middle East. Many observers believe wide gaps remain between Iran and the US, making a durable ceasefire unlikely in the short term. The Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said on Wednesday that Tehran would convey its position to Pakistan after “finalising its views”. Later on Wednesday, Trump said in an interview with PBS he was optimistic about reaching an agreement with Iran before his trip to China. “I think it’s got a very good chance of ending, and if it doesn’t end, we have to go back to bombing the hell out of them,” Trump told the broadcaster. Trump insisted that under any deal Tehran would “export” its highly enriched uranium – necessary for making a nuclear weapon – to the US, a demand that experts say Iran cannot accept. The Iran war, which began with an Israeli strike that killed Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, appears to have reached a stalemate. Iran is taking huge economic losses, which may escalate if it begins to run out of storage capacity for its oil, while Trump is under pressure domestically and internationally as fuel prices surge in the US and globally. US officials have insisted the ceasefire in the Middle East is holding, though there was an increase in violence on Monday, with Iranian missiles and drones striking the UAE for the first time in weeks, and reported clashes in the strait of Hormuz. The US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, said the US had successfully secured a path through the waterway and that hundreds of commercial ships were lining up to pass through. “We know the Iranians are embarrassed by this fact. They said they control the strait. They do not,” Hegseth said. Control of the strait and the threat to restart attacks on nearby countries’ oil and other infrastructure in the Gulf are the two main cards Iran can play in negotiations. Both Washington and Tehran appear to believe they are close to victory and so have been unwilling to make significant concessions to allow the on-off talks to progress. Rising petrol prices and a slowing global economy pose a political threat to Trump as the US approaches congressional elections in November. A win for the Democrats in one or both chambers would weaken his presidency. Trump has so far shrugged off domestic concerns, with some reports suggesting he is more interested in securing what he sees as his legacy.

Pussy Riot protest at Venice Biennale forces Russian pavilion to briefly close

The Russian pavilion at the Venice Biennale was forced temporarily to shut its doors on the second day of the preview after the activist group Pussy Riot staged a chaotic protest against the country’s inclusion in the art festival. Wearing pink balaclavas, the protesters ran towards the Russian pavilion where they gathered outside and lit pink, blue and yellow flares while playing punk music and shouting slogans, including “Blood is Russia’s Art”. At one stage the group of about 40 activists, including members of the feminist activist group Femen, attempted to enter the Russian pavilion but were pushed back by police, who lined the entrance. Some members had slogans, such as “Curated by Putin, dead bodies included”, “Russia kills, biennale exhibits” and “Russian art, Ukrainian blood” written on their bodies. A statue outside the pavilion was wrapped in a Ukrainian flag. Nadya Tolokonnikova, a founding member of Pussy Riot, said she had been horrified by the sight of people partying at the Russian pavilion during the first day, where crates of prosecco were loaded into the space, which was also playing loud techno music. Tolokonnikova, who led the protest, said: “It’s weird to me that Europe keeps saying that Ukraine is a shield for the entire European continent but it opens its doors time and time again to Russian propaganda. It’s heartbreaking for me.” The activist pleaded with Pietrangelo Buttafuoco, the president of the biennale, to “stop taking Russian money” and speak to the group. In a press statement Pussy Riot offered to curate the 2028 Russian pavilion, pledging to use work by artists who are or have been imprisoned in Russian correctional facilities. A diplomatic row over Russia’s involvement has been escalating. The Financial Times reported that the European Commission had told the Italian government and the biennale’s organisers that allowing the Russian delegation to participate would breach EU sanctions. No one was arrested during the protest, which drew a large crowd of onlookers, many of whom were bewildered visitors who had just made it into the event after standing in long queues, which snaked out of the festival site. There has been a tense buildup to the biennale, with politics often overshadowing the art on display. Before the event, the jury – which selects the winner of the Golden Lion prizes – resigned en masse after stating they would not consider entries from countries whose leaders were subject to international arrest warrants (which would have barred them from including Russia and Israel). An Italian news outlet claimed that the jury resigned after they were told by the biennale’s legal team that they could be held personally responsible if Israel decided to pursue the matter legally. On Wednesday, a representative from the biennale confirmed to the Guardian that the report was accurate. At the official opening of the British pavilion for Lubaina Himid, a representative of the British ambassador said that no minister had attended the event because of Russian involvement. It is customary for a minister to open the pavilion, although the UK’s entry is managed by the British Council rather than the government. The Guardian has approached the Department of Media, Culture and Sport for comment. An hour after the Pussy Riot protest, the Art Not Genocide Alliance (Anga) staged a demonstration outside the Israeli pavilion in the Arsenale. The pavilion was locked from the inside while the group gathered in front of its doors to protest against Israel’s inclusion over its war in Gaza. More than 200 participants in the event have signed a letter demanding the cancellation of the Israeli pavilion, billed as “a collective refusal to allow you to platform the Israeli state as it commits genocide”. Israel’s foreign ministry has condemned Anga, calling the group’s actions “anti-Israeli political indoctrination” and “direct discrimination”. On Friday a demonstration coordinated by Anga is expected, which organisers say includes Italian labour unions, art workers at the event, curators and nearly 20 artists who have work on display in national pavilions. The Guardian understands some artists may create picket lines outside their pavilions and ask visitors not to enter. Protest and politics are not new at the biennale. In 1968 there were protests that spilled over from the wider student movement that summer, primarily aimed at the US over the Vietnam war. Six years later, the entire event was dedicated to the people of Chile, who were then under the rule of the military dictator Augusto Pinochet.

Understanding the challenges of living with a cleft lip | Letters

With reference to the article by Hugh Davies about his experiences of having been born with a cleft lip (A moment that changed me: I cried about my cleft lip for the first time in my 60s, 29 April), it is fantastic to see cleft experiences given national attention, especially when there is still so much misunderstanding about what a cleft truly is. It is often assumed to be a small cosmetic difference. In reality, it shapes feeding, hearing, speech, dental development, facial growth and emotional wellbeing from the very first days of life. Someone in their 60s speaking openly about the lifelong impact of this is powerful. The reforms that regionalised cleft care in the early 2000s have meant that experiences have changed since Hugh’s childhood. Today’s children benefit from coordinated surgical care, better speech and hearing support, and a far stronger understanding of psychological needs. However, there is still so much we do not know, particularly about the journey into adulthood. A current UK-wide research programme funded by the National Institute of Health and Care Research – the Cleft@18-23 study – is addressing this gap. It aims to understand the experiences, challenges and hopes of young adults aged 18 to 23 born with a cleft. There are research clinics taking place across the UK that young people can attend, or they can take part in online interviews to share their experiences. Young people have helped shape this study and they have spoken movingly about how different their experiences are from older generations and how meaningful it feels to build a community that spans ages. Stories like the one you published remind us why this work matters and why every generation’s voice deserves to be heard. Dr Stephanie van Eeden Cleft@18-23 study, University of Bristol • I agree with a lot of what Hugh Davies states about cleft palate. I am also in my 60s, also with a cleft palate. Our facial features do affect how others respond to us and judge our intelligence, which can have lifetime consequences. It makes one shy in social situations, but it also makes one more determined to be the best person one can be, regardless of what others think. I was lucky to be treated by a top surgeon who worked in the local hospital when I was a child. I feel sorry for less fortunate children in poor countries with fewer treatment opportunities. The Operation Smile charity is very important. Kenneth Low York

‘Putin only cares about parades’: fury as Russia rains missiles on Ukraine during 24-hour truce

Kyiv has criticised Russia for attacking several Ukrainian cities overnight with more than 100 combat drones and three missiles in spite of a unilateral 24-hour ceasefire called by Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ukraine’s president had announced the truce after the Kremlin said it wanted a ceasefire on Saturday during its annual military parade in Red Square, but he said he would reciprocate if Vladimir Putin broke Ukraine’s ceasefire, which ends at midnight on Wednesday. Instead of pausing operations, Moscow has intensified them, with a series of devastating bombings of busy urban areas. On Tuesday, 28 civilians were killed in bomb and missile strikes in the Donetsk, Poltava and Dnipro regions and dozens were injured. On Wednesday, Russian drones hit a kindergarten in the north-eastern city of Sumy, killing a security guard and wounding two others, officials said. No children were there at the time. Russian attacks on 14 regions of Ukraine since last Friday have killed at least 70 civilians and wounded more than 500, the UN human rights monitoring mission in Ukraine said on Wednesday. “What is particularly alarming is both the scale of civilian casualties and the extent of territory affected in only a few days,” said Danielle Bell, the mission’s head. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, said the latest strikes showed that Russia rejected peace. “This shows fake calls for a ceasefire on May 9th have nothing to do with diplomacy. Putin only cares about military parades, not human lives,” he wrote on social media. Sybiha added: “Such attitude necessitates strong and increased pressure on the Russian regime, including new rounds of sanctions, isolation, accountability for Russian crimes, and enhanced support for Ukraine in all areas.” Moscow’s drone and bomb attacks on Tuesday were the most deadly in Ukraine for weeks. They came at a time when Russia’s advances on the battlefield have practically stopped, with its armed forces losing more territory in April that they gained – for the first time since 2024. The Kremlin has taken widespread measures to protect Saturday’s parade – which celebrates the allies’ victory over Nazi Germany in the second world war – after recent long-range Ukrainian drone strikes on a range of targets. For the first time in nearly 20 years, the event will take place without a display of tanks and ballistic missiles. Air defence systems have been transferred to the Russian capital from other areas, and the mobile internet network has been shut down, apparently as a security precaution. It is unclear if Ukraine will seek to disrupt the event or instead target Russia’s oil infrastructure and military-industrial sites. Zelenskyy said the concentration of air defences around Moscow would create “additional opportunities” for Ukraine to launch long-range attacks elsewhere in Russia. He said officials would decide on further actions later in the day in response to Russia’s most recent attacks. Moscow’s defence ministry said it downed 53 Ukrainian drones between 9pm and 7am, far fewer than in previous days. It did not say whether any of the drones attacked after Kyiv’s unilateral truce was supposed to have come into effect at midnight. Five people were killed by a Ukrainian drone strike on the city of Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea, according to the Russia-installed governor, Sergei Aksyonov. He reported the casualties just after midnight but had posted about the attack itself more than 90 minutes earlier. Talks on ending Europe’s worst conflict since the second world war have shown little progress. Putin has refused to moderate demands first made during his 2022 full-scale invasion, including the handover of swathes of Ukrainian territory and the removal of its pro-western government.

Another day, another pivot as Trump flails in an Iran trap of his own making

Another day, another hairpin turn in the world of Donald Trump’s foreign policy. The weekend was all about war, and Trump insisting Iran had not yet “paid a big enough price”. Tuesday was Project Freedom, styled as a grand “humanitarian gesture” to allow trapped ships and their crews to escape the Gulf, but also aimed at weakening Iran’s chokehold on the strait of Hormuz. By the early hours of Wednesday we were back to peace. The president announced: “Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement” so Project Freedom would be paused to give negotiations a chance. The three approaches on three consecutive days do have something in common. They are all attempts to wrestle with the same set of hard facts: the regime in Iran is unlikely to collapse or surrender the right to enrich uranium no matter how many bombs are dropped on it, Tehran has shown its capacity to close the strait of Hormuz, and a total blockade of the Gulf hurts the US economy as well as Iran. Together these hard facts make up the sides of a steel box in which the Trump administration, largely through its own actions, finds itself trapped. The repeated policy changes in recent days show him flailing around inside this trap, pinging off the walls and looking for an exit other than humiliation or a forever war. It remains too early to say whether Trump has now found a way out. His accompanying threat of bombardment “at a much higher level and intensity” if Iran does not accept the initial terms betrays his nervousness it will not work. The terms on the table became clearer over the course of Wednesday. The Axios news site, and then Reuters news agency, reported that the US, Iran and their Pakistani mediators were getting close to an agreement on a one-page “memorandum of understanding” to declare an end to the war and begin a 30-day negotiating period for resolving disputes over Iran’s nuclear programme, US sanctions and Iran’s frozen assets. Both sides would lift their parallel blockades of the strait of Hormuz over the course of this month of talks. Trump’s announcement brought down the oil price and boosted stock markets, as the president’s upbeat messages are designed to do. But it all remained tenuous. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the reopening of the strait of Hormuz could be possible, but did not give a straight reply on the reported proposal. Tehran has said it wants the blockade to end first, before talking about anything else. The foreign ministry said the proposal was under review, while Ebrahim Rezaei, the spokesperson for the Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy commission, rejected it as an “American wishlist, not a reality”. There has been much speculation over whether the various centres of power in Iran will be able to agree on a shared position when it comes to serious talks. This proposal could put that conjecture to the test. Even if the parties make it to the negotiating table, 30 days is a very short time to resolve such entrenched disputes as Iran’s nuclear programme and US-led sanctions, all while unravelling the dual blockade. Before the war, Iran was offering a moratorium on uranium enrichment of five years, and the US was demanding 20. The reported new proposal suggests a compromise of 12 or 15 years. Iran’s prewar offer involved doing something about its stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU, potential fuel for nuclear weapons) – either diluting or exporting it, or both. The reported proposal for a new negotiating framework points towards export, possibly even to the US. Under the deal, Iran would also accept the permanent return of inspectors from the UN watchdog body, the IAEA, which would be essential for international confidence that any deal would stick. In return, Iran’s billions of frozen assets would be released in stages (a concession for which Trump spent years lambasting his predecessors) and sanctions would be lifted progressively. It is a very ambitious agenda. There are countless ways it could fall apart, and while neither side wants to go back to war, both parties apparently believe that more fighting could improve their position at the negotiating table – an unstable set of circumstances in which to hammer out a peace agreement. Israel would also be expected to oppose any settlement that does not address Iran’s arsenal of missiles or the actions of its regional proxies. In the best-case scenario for the US, the terms agreed would be somewhat better than those on the table in Geneva on 26 February, two days before the war started with a surprise US-Israeli attack. The enrichment moratorium would be longer, and there would be greater certainty HEU would be shipped out of the country. We will never know, however, if the same improvements could have been achieved by more rounds of negotiations in place of bombing. Any agreement should ultimately be assessed against the benchmark of the 2015 multilateral nuclear deal that Trump torpedoed in 2018. Under its terms, Iran had no HEU but would have held on to a closely monitored and strictly limited nuclear programme. If he wants to declare victory, Trump could point to the fact that even the 2015 deal lacked the lengthy moratorium on enrichment that his will provide. But any such gains will have come at an awful price. There are more than 5,000 people dead, including the 120 primary school children killed on the first day in Minab, and counting the casualties in Lebanon. Then there are all the indirect global costs – economic and environmental – that will take years to play out. The UN estimates that 32 million people could be plunged into poverty as a result of the war, largely through its impact on energy and fertiliser supplies. The UN humanitarian chief, Tom Fletcher, has said that the $2bn (£1.5bn) a day spent on the war could have saved about 87 million people’s lives if the money had been spent on humanitarian relief. Harder to calculate is whether the relentless bombing has shortened or lengthened the life of Iran’s regime. For now, it appears to have entrenched the military and the hardliners. As things stand, there are more unknowns than knowns surrounding this possible breakthrough, and any progress will remain extremely fragile. But even if the war is ended and Trump gets the peace plan sketched out in the latest reports, this war seems certain to rank right up there on the list of history’s most pointless conflicts.