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Nepal says big polluters must ‘wake up’ as it calls for climate compensation over flood disaster

Nepal is demanding $20m in climate compensation for the recent devastating floods, as a senior minister called on the world’s most polluting countries to “wake up” and accept shared responsibility for a disaster that led to the death or disappearance of more than 6,000 people. Scientists believe the climate crisis had a role to play in the floods, which were triggered when a melting glacier partially collapsed and set off a deadly landslide and flash flooding through Chinese-controlled Tibet and Nepal in late August. So far, more than 1,300 are confirmed dead and more than 5,500 still missing, with hopes of their survival diminished after 12 days of rescue operations. Speaking to the Guardian, Nepal’s foreign minister, Shisir Khanal, was forthright in his call for climate justice and said it was imperative the world’s biggest economies stepped up to help Nepal recover and rebuild after the catastrophic floods. Nepal contributes less than 0.1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, while its neighbours India and China are among the world’s biggest emitters. The mountains of the Himalayas – which span across India, China, Nepal and Bhutan – have been warming at a rate nearly 50% faster than the global average. In 2023, the UN said Nepal’s mountains had lost close to a third of their ice in just over 30 years due to global heating. Khanal emphasised that the recent disaster was far more extreme than any flooding regularly seen during the monsoon season, and said the magnitude of damage was on par with the 2015 earthquake that left much of the country in ruins. “This felt like a tsunami that was coming from the Himalayas,” he said. “We experienced waves as high as 60, 70 feet, which were mixed with debris, mud, stones, rocks, and came at the speed of almost 180km per hour. Towns, villages and highways were completely wiped out and there are some areas still disconnected.” Khanal confirmed that Nepal’s ministry of finance and ministry of environment had written a joint letter to the UN’s fund for responding to loss and damage – which was set up in 2022 in line with the Paris climate agreement – to request $20m in climate-related damages. “We have contributed so little to climate change,” he said. “It is imperative for those in the global community who benefit from larger, much more polluting economies, and whose historical contribution to greenhouse gases is much bigger than ours, to accept a shared responsibility. This affects all of humanity.” For Nepal, the disaster was particularly worrying because it was “one of the strongest warning signals that we’ve experienced of what’s to come”, he said. “The global community should not see this as one-off disaster; it should be viewed in the context of the changing climate in the Himalayas,” he said. “We know it is going to be a recurring scenario that more and more communities, not just in Nepal but around the world, will have to face.” Khanal acknowledged that the compensation amount Nepal has requested from the UN was “obviously not nearly enough to cover the damage that we have sustained”. According to some estimates, the total damage caused by the floods will be upwards of $5bn, though Khanal said it could be even higher. Upwards of 20,000 homes will probably have to be rebuilt, as well as the main highway. Villages built in vulnerable areas along the river, some of which washed away entirely, may have to be relocated to higher, safer ground. While Khanal initially singled out India and China as countries that should step in to help – while avoiding mention of the US, which is the world’s biggest polluter – he rowed back on those comments, saying: “It is not just about shifting the blame to one or the other country, it’s about us all working together.” He emphasised that the compensation demand was also meant to act as a “wake-up call for the global community to establish a more robust mechanism to help vulnerable and small economies like Nepal”. The UN has admitted the loss and damage fund is already facing a “significant financing gap”. The fund has already received requests totalling $2.8bn from about 119 countries, but so far only around $400m has been given by the international community. The US has given just $17m, after Donald Trump withdrew from the Paris agreement. Khanal acknowledged there were “political challenges” in getting Nepal the climate compensation it was demanding. “Yes there always will be people who may not agree to our perspective or deny there is climate change, but there are also people who deny that the Earth is round,” he said bluntly. He emphasised the importance of funds being made available not just for immediate disaster response but also for preparedness and mitigation for climate-related risk. Khanal rebuffed allegations that China had failed to give an adequate warning or share data with Nepal about the impending floods. He said he was in discussion with China about enhancing coordination and data sharing for the Himalayan region. “With the benefit of hindsight, we can now see that this glacier was fragile and had been receding in the past six months,” he said. “But before the floods hit, there was no knowledge on our part, or on the part of Chinese scientists, that this particular collapse was imminent. I do not believe any of us had any idea of the threat until it happened.”

Canada’s retaliatory US tariffs set to take effect as trade dispute grows

Canada is set to impose retaliatory tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of American imports early on Tuesday, escalating a trade fight with its largest trading partner as tensions between US president Donald Trump and Canadian prime minister Mark Carney intensify. The tariffs, which take effect at 12.01am on Tuesday, will range from 15% to 50% and apply to products covering C$27.6bn in imports from the US. The measures will target sectors including steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics – industries that have been most affected by US tariffs. The retaliatory tariffs come “as a result of the United States’ decision to impose a 50% tariff on $27.6bn of Canadian goods effective August 22”, the Canadian government said. “Canada’s counter-measures do not apply to US goods that are in transit to Canada on the day on which they come into force,” it added. Tensions between Canada and the US have intensified in recent weeks, with Carney last week urging the Trump administration to “start being serious” as the trade dispute has increasingly spilled into broader diplomatic tensions. Trump and senior US officials have repeatedly criticized Canada and its leadership, while Trump has taken a series of symbolic digs at Canada including signing an executive order renaming Lake Ontario “Lake America” – which Canadians have rejected. US vice-president JD Vance has also reportedly mocked Carney, apparently saying the Canadian prime minister “comes in and puffs his chest out and says: ‘I’m going to, like, out-tough Donald Trump.’” Last month, Trump announced a new 50% tariff on cars and raw materials from Canada. He accused the country of “ripping off” the US “for years”, adding: “We don’t need Canada, they need us!” Carney said last month Canada would not accept a US trade deal that weakened French-language protections, saying American negotiators viewed the measures as an “irritant”, while “in Quebec, these are rights”. Quebec has long maintained laws aimed at protecting French and preserving its distinct cultural identity. Those measures have become a sticking point in the trade talks between the two countries, with American negotiators raising concerns about rules they say can disadvantage US businesses.

German chancellor vows to stay in office despite AfD triumph in state election

A “shocked” and chastened Friedrich Merz has vowed to stay in office despite the far right’s triumph in a state election that has brought anti-immigrant, pro-Kremlin politicians within striking distance of power. The German chancellor, appearing ashen-faced in front of reporters in Berlin, said on Monday that the landslide victory by the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Saxony-Anhalt had shaken his conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) “to its very foundations”. The unpopular Merz, who had pledged to halve the AfD’s support at the national level, has watched the nativist party rack up electoral gains, none as convincing as its utter rout of the CDU in the eastern region on Sunday with nearly 44% of the vote. The AfD and its candidate Ulrich Siegmund fell short of an absolute majority but could yet create Germany’s first far-right state government since the Nazi period. Merz appeared contrite and willing to work on his “communication” with voters. “This is the worst electoral defeat the [CDU] has suffered in years, in decades,” he said. “Of course this will have to have consequences.” Exit polls indicated the state’s voters were driven by deep dissatisfaction with the political establishment and its stewardship of Europe’s biggest economy, with one showing that only 9% approved of Merz’s performance. Siegmund, a media-savvy former fragrance salesman, was also able to tap into a sense of grievance in the former communist east, where complaints abound that voters there are treated as “second-class citizens” more than three decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Siegmund, 35, mocked the 70-year-old Merz as “a very good campaigner” for the AfD. Only 16 months in office, Merz conceded his own low poll ratings had played a role in his party’s loss. “I know that I personally was a constant topic in this election campaign,” he said. “We must try – myself included – to reach people more effectively, in the full range of their emotions.” The CDU’s junior coalition partner, the Social Democrats, indicated a willingness to water down contentious measures to shore up the statutory healthcare and pension schemes. However, Merz insisted: “My determination to continue on the path of reform is unbroken,” saying a sustainable system was essential for the sake of “our children and grandchildren”. He added: “Giving up is not an option for me.” Merz said he wanted to assure Germany’s allies that “our institutions are resilient and stable” and its own vulnerable minorities that the country would stick to its values and constitution even if the AfD took power in Saxony-Anhalt. “We know that Germany carries special responsibility because of its history,” he said. He also promised to stay the course on Ukraine, stressing he would “not budge a single millimetre from my fundamental conviction that we must defend our freedom against Russia as well”. Merz said Moscow would cheer the AfD’s success in Saxony-Anhalt and accused it of lending support to the far right’s campaign, with another two German state elections still to come this month amid alleged Russian interference and sabotage. Although the CDU rallied behind its chancellor and party leader, several influential commenters openly called for his immediate replacement – a complex step under German law. Germany “needs a clean slate, a fresh start, and that starts with Friedrich Merz”, said the Der Spiegel editor-in-chief, Dirk Kurbjuweit. “He is evidently the wrong man for this office in these times.” The AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt chapter is listed as “confirmed rightwing extremist” by the domestic intelligence service. It has pledged mass deportations of unwelcome immigrants and asylum seekers, which critics have said would be illegal, while promising massive boosts in social welfare spending with unclear financing. The AfD has also taken aim at state support for public broadcasters and cultural institutions it deems “unpatriotic”, sparking fears of “cultural hegemony”. The party did not win enough seats to elect Siegmund as state premier, but AfD leaders said they seek to pick off rebel lawmakers from other parties willing to play kingmaker. It is only three seats short of a majority. The conservative-left populist BSW party, which also favours restoring ties with Russia and largely blocking immigration, signalled an openness to working with the AfD but before the election ruled out joining the state government. In the 13 years of the AfD’s existence, the mainstream parties have maintained a “firewall” against the far right, refusing any formal cooperation that would allow it take power. The strategy meant to sideline the party has appeared to backfire, however, as the permanent “outsider” role appeals to legions of voters fed up with politics as usual. The CDU state premier, Sven Schulze, acknowledged his party had “no mandate” to govern given its humiliating 17% result, even if it managed to cobble together an unwieldy coalition with all the other parties in the legislature. Although Saxony-Anhalt forms part of the AfD heartland as a relatively poor, ex-communist region, the party has begun making inroads in the west as well amid alarming signs of decline in the steel, chemicals and automotive sectors. Germany faces another two regional elections on 20 September, in Berlin and in another eastern state, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the AfD is also strong. The party co-leader Alice Weidel, beaming after Sunday’s vote, said the AfD was now targeting 40% at the next general election, due in 2029. It is polling at about 28%.

As Azerbaijan and Armenia work towards peace, this film paints a misleading picture | Letter

Contrary to Phuong Le’s assertion, the film The Black Garden clearly presents a highly nationalistic perspective (The Black Garden review – haunting study of growing up in war-torn Nagorno-Karabakh, 31 August). She is right, however, to highlight the human cost of the former conflict. For Azerbaijan, this means thousands killed, some 4,000 missing, around 1 million internally displaced persons and refugees, as well as profound economic and social consequences. It is important to recall that the former conflict arose from Armenia’s occupation of Karabakh, an internationally recognised territory of Azerbaijan, following a military invasion by Armenian forces in the 1990s. The United Nations security council repeatedly called for the end to the illegal occupation. In 2020, Azerbaijan restored the nation’s territorial integrity, yet the human cost for Azerbaijan continues. Mines laid during the years of occupation continue to kill and injure civilians. Between 2020 and 2026, 436 people have been killed or injured in mine explosions. Both the film and the article are curiously untimely. Stirring negativity on the former conflict in these terms overlooks a significant opportunity for a lasting peace. Azerbaijan and Armenia are making steady progress towards a durable peace. The countries are trading, border delimitation commissions are meeting regularly, and confidence-building measures are increasing. Recent meetings of Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders highlighted tangible dividends of peace, including Azerbaijani exports to Armenia and the transit of goods through Azerbaijan. They also discussed potentially transformative connectivity projects for our wider region. These are the developments that deserve the spotlight, rather than stories fostering division. Günel Salimova Counsellor, Embassy of Azerbaijan, London • Have an opinion on anything you’ve read in the Guardian today? Please email us your letter and it will be considered for publication in our letters section.

Syrian reactor could have been used for nuclear weapons if completed, UN says

A nearly complete nuclear reactor built secretly during the rule of the toppled Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad would have been able to produce fissile material for possible use in nuclear weapons, the chief of the UN nuclear watchdog has revealed. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last month visited two sites, one in Deir ez-Zor and a second in an undisclosed location identified to them by Syrian authorities. The IAEA head, Rafael Grossi, said on Monday it was “obvious that the previous government was pursuing a number of clandestine” activities. “They didn’t want the world to know what they were doing,” he told reporters after opening the Vienna-based agency’s quarterly board of governors meeting. “Given the configuration, the technical features of that type of reactor, this is a reactor that is very efficient in the production of fissile material that could be used directly for the fabrication of nuclear weapons,” he said, adding that building the reactor was a “very important step”. Syria was believed to have operated an extensive undeclared nuclear programme under Assad that included a nuclear reactor built by North Korea in the eastern Deir ez-Zor province. After Assad was ousted in December 2024, the new government agreed to give IAEA inspectors access to suspected former nuclear sites. During a visit to Syria in August, IAEA inspectors confirmed that “the cooling infrastructure which has now been uncovered is consistent with that of a nuclear reactor”. Grossi and a team of senior inspectors also visited a previously undeclared site in the country. In 2018, Israel admitted carrying out a top-secret air raid on the site 11 years earlier. In 2008, less than a year after the strike, US officials accused Syria of having sought to build a secret nuclear reactor and acknowledged that Israel had destroyed it in the raid. Syria notified the agency of the site’s existence in a 17 July letter and invited the IAEA “to cooperate with the Syrian authorities in the inspection and verification of the site and of any nuclear material to be potentially found”. The IAEA said in its confidential report circulated to member states last Tuesday and seen by the Associated Press that this new site contained “natural uranium metal in the form of fuel rods with cladding”. The agency verified the material and confirmed “the presence of around 73 tonnes of natural uranium metal”. Grossi said that when the inspectors visited the site in August they had to “tear down walls” and go through “very difficult and narrow passages” to reach the nuclear material that had been hidden. The site had boxes scattered all over the place, he said. Grossi said “the important thing is that this material now is under safeguards” of the IAEA, adding that agency inspectors had managed to install cameras at the location. Asked if the nuclear material would remain in Syria or be removed, Grossi said this was “a matter that the Syrian government will have to decide”. He added: “We are not requesting them to do this or to do that. For us what’s important is that we know all the time where this [material] is until the last gram.” Logan Mintz, a director for nuclear materials security at the Washington-based Nuclear Threat Initiative, said natural uranium metal was not directly usable for a nuclear weapon but could be “diverted to a covert weapons programme that further processes it into plutonium for a nuclear weapon”. She said that once deemed safe to move, the material could be “transported in certified containers” to a third country that could “safely and securely disposition it into a more chemically stable and more widely used form” for possible use in nuclear power plants. “As with any transport of nuclear material, this movement would require robust security from theft or sabotage,” she said. Associated Press and Agence France-Press contributed reporting

Europe’s centre fears nationalist wave after AfD victory but only has itself to blame

The numbers speak for themselves: Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a party that dabbles in Nazi imagery, distinguishes between “biological” and “passport” Germans, and is too extreme even for France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen, nearly doubled its score in Sunday’s state election in Saxony-Anhalt to 43.8% of the vote. Meanwhile, the centre-right CDU of the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, collapsed to 17.2%, less than half its total in the same race five years ago, and the centre-left SPD – Germany’s other main party of government for the past 60-odd years – scraped 9.3%. The least that can be said is that the centre did not hold. It is not yet clear whether the AfD, whose local branch in the east German state of Saxony-Anhalt is officially classified by the country’s domestic intelligence service as “confirmed rightwing extremist”, will be able to form a government: it has 39 lawmakers in the 83-member parliament, just short of an outright majority. But the score is the party’s strongest-ever state result and puts it closer to governing a German state than any far-right party since the second world war. It has sent shock waves round Europe, with nationalists cheering a “historic win” that is “just the beginning” and mainstream leaders warning of a “grave moment” for Europe. Sweden holds legislative elections next weekend. France faces a crunch presidential ballot next spring. Key parliamentary races will follow there, as well as in Italy, Spain and Poland, later in the year. Far-right parties are polling strongly in all of them, and Europe’s centre fears a continent-wide nationalist wave. It would be wise not to read too much into one election result in one quite particular German state. Saxony-Anhalt, analysts note, is home to barely 1.8 million voters and has long been a far-right stronghold: in federal and state elections over the past decade, support for the AfD there has consistently been double the national average. “A far-right party winning a regional election in Germany is not more scary than a far-right party winning a regional election in France, the UK or the Netherlands,” said Tarik Abou-Chadi, a professor of European politics at Oxford University. “Saxony-Anhalt should not be the basis for sweeping conclusions about the electoral sociology of the AfD.” Nonetheless, the AfD leads in national polls. It is also ahead – although in a far tighter race, with the SPD – in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where state elections are due later this month, and it is lying second even in liberal Berlin. Its rise is part of a decade-long march by far-right parties across Europe. Almost one in four voters in Europe now cast their ballot for far-right parties, according to research led by Matthijs Rooduijn, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam, a proportion that has grown nearly fivefold since the mid-1990s and climbed particularly steeply over the past three years. This analysis, by more than 150 political scientists in 31 countries, found that the proportion of Europeans voting for a far-right party in their country’s most recent national elections had risen in 2026 to more than 23%, from about 10% a decade ago and roughly 5% in 1995. Far-right populist parties are now in government as part of ruling coalitions in Croatia, Czechia, Italy and Finland, propping up a rightwing minority government in Sweden, and leading in the polls in Austria, Belgium, France and Germany (and, until very recently, the UK). They have also suffered recent defeats, including in the Netherlands, where Geert Wilders’s Freedom party (PVV) lost nearly a third of its seats to finish second last year, and Hungary, where Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz was comprehensively beaten by his centre-right rival in April. But the trend seems clear. As Cas Mudde of the University of Georgia, a leading expert on Europe’s far right, put it after Orbán’s defeat: “The far right is here to stay, and many of its parties are as established as the (former) ‘mainstream’ parties. Like other parties, their electoral support fluctuates.” That steady electoral advance has been achieved despite a refusal by mainstream parties in countries such as France and Germany to collaborate with far-right parties, prompting some commentators to argue that the “cordon sanitaire” or “firewall” has now failed, or even been counterproductive. By keeping the AfD out, they argue, Germany’s mainstream parties have actually boosted it: the party has been protected from the compromises and failures inherent in government. At the same time, the centre has been “hollowed-out”: forced into uncomfortable, unstable alliances that agree on and – vitally – accomplish little, further frustrating voters and driving support for the extremes. “There’s a self-reinforcing political dynamic that feeds the AfD’s rise,” said Mujtaba Rahman, of the Eurasia Group risk consultancy. “The weaker the election results, the less common ground in the coalition, the fewer the policy results. The fewer results, the bigger the frustration in the electorate, the bigger the AfD’s share of the vote.” Many political scientists, however, say blaming the firewall is an excuse, and data suggests far-right parties do not in any case get weaker when they are in government, but become stronger: one recent study of more than 1,300 different governments in 57 countries found far-right parties that entered government averaged a score six percentage points higher come the next election. Besides the persistent inability of mainstream governments to deliver for disillusioned voters hit by a spiralling cost of living crisis, it is above all the gradual mainstreaming and normalisation of the far right’s ideas that has driven – and continues to drive – its steady advance, political scientists argue. Research suggests voter attitudes towards core far-right themes such as immigration have not changed significantly over time, but have become much more significant in their voting decisions: normalisation by the media and by mainstream parties that readily embrace far-right framing have legitimised far-right views. “The entire debate about whether the cordon sanitaire is ‘successful’ or contributes to strengthening the far right completely misses the point,” said Gabriela Greilinger, an Austrian-Hungarian political scientist. “Far-right politics and policies already constantly take centre stage, whether or not the far right is in power. There is no cordon around their ideas.”

Merz says ‘shock’ AfD victory in key German state ‘is an election result we cannot simply move past’ – as it happened

And, on that note, we will be closing the blog for today. German chancellor Friedrich Merz said last night’s triumph of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland in the Saxony-Anhalt election means the government “cannot simply move past as if nothing happened,” as he accepted “the most severe election defeat” in “years, indeed in decades” (13:39). Merz said the country still needed “fundamental reforms” (13:43) and defended his government’s track record (14:03), as he rejected any talks of “giving up” and resigning from the post (14:00). His CDU party’s state leader in Saxony-Anhalt conceded the party had no longer a mandate to govern in the state (13:49). Meanwhile, triumphant AfD leaders celebrated “a dream result” (10:37), which they said showed the growing appetite for change in German politics (10:40). Merz criticised the AfD’s close links with Russia (14:00), and pledged to continue Germany’s support for Ukraine, despite growing popularity of pro-Russian parties (14:18) and the latest wave of hostile moves from Russia (15:52). In other news, Bosnian Serb war criminal Ratko Mladić was buried in Belgrade after a controversial funeral with army honours (12:26, 13:11), which prompted furious criticism from the EU and Bosnian survivors accusing Serbia of “glorifying” the general (12:50, 12:58, 13:05). Hours after the funeral, Serbia’s government asked president Aleksandar Vucić to dissolve the parliament and call a snap election, seen as Vucić’s attempt to tighten his grip on Serbian politics after two years of student-led protests (16:32). Separately, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen presented a €200m investment package for Greenland during her visit to the territory, as the EU seeks to strengthen its ties with Greenland and show solidarity amid continued US interest (14:23, 14:50). If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com. I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.

Why is the far-right AfD’s state victory significant and what might happen next in German politics?

Germany is reeling from the biggest far-right victory in a state election since the Nazi period after voters in Saxony-Anhalt in the former communist east gave the anti-immigration, pro-Kremlin Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party a thumping first-place finish of 44%, just short of an absolute majority. What happened and why is it significant? For the first time since the second world war, a German state is on the brink of electing a far-right government after a big win in Saxony-Anhalt, described by the news magazine Der Spiegel as a magnitude 9.0 “political earthquake”. Coming in nearly 27 points ahead of the co-ruling Christian Democrats (CDU), the conservative party of the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, the AfD pulled off a coup whose aftershocks will ripple across Germany and beyond its borders. The AfD will have broad powers over education, culture and ‌domestic security if it manages to take power in the state. Among other policies, it has promised to start a remigration and deportation offensive, ban rainbow flags in schools, and halt the building of new windfarms. It now has a strong wind at its back for the two state elections yet to come this month. Its triumph also raised doubts whether the unpopular Merz could hold on in the face of such a clear rejection of his policies and leadership after just 16 months in power. The AfD co-leader Alice Weidel told reporters in Berlin that her party was targeting a 40% result at the next general election, scheduled for 2029. It is currently polling in first place at 28%. What might happen next? The AfD’s national leaders and the chief candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, the media-savvy former fragrance salesman Ulrich Siegmund, said the state’s voters had given the party a clear mandate to govern. However, without an absolute majority in the state parliament, the party would need partners or supporters to either join a coalition or “tolerate” a minority government. Siegmund said repeatedly before the vote he would only stand for election as premier with a clear majority. The remaining parties ruled out playing kingmaker to Siegmund by lending formal support. However, the BSW, a small “left-conservative” populist party which narrowly cleared the 5% hurdle to representation, has hinted at tacit cooperation. Prior to the election, some Christian Democrats in the state openly questioned the “firewall” policy. Siegmund indicated he would spend the coming days and weeks “with an outstretched hand”, testing the hitherto resolute opposition to helping the AfD into power. If Siegmund fails to build a coalition, he suggested holding a new election, something that would require a two-thirds majority in the state legislature. What does the result say about the firewall approach? The stunning outcome in Saxony-Anhalt has underscored doubts about the viability of the policy of mainstream parties to exclude the AfD from power. The only other time the AfD won in a state, in neighbouring Thuringia in 2024, its victory was less decisive, allowing the remaining parties to cobble together an ideologically awkward, cross-spectrum coalition. Given the AfD’s margin of victory in Saxony-Anhalt, it is difficult to imagine how the humiliated CDU could form such a “Frankenstein” alliance of disparate parties this time. The state premier, Sven Schulze, acknowledged the party no longer had a mandate to try. What does the result mean for the CDU and Friedrich Merz? Sunday’s election amounted to a stinging rebuke of Merz and his CDU. The stony-faced chancellor admitted he was “deeply shocked” by the result. Exit polls showed voters were furious about his broken promises to revive the economy and shore up fiscal discipline. Energy prices, stoked by inflation and the Iran war, have hit voters hard in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany’s poorest state. Cost of living issues appeared to far outweigh immigration, the AfD’s trademark call to arms, as a mobilising issue. Although support for the AfD has been strongest in the ex-communist east, the party also made strong gains in two elections in western states earlier this year amid fears over deindustrialisation. The Social Democratic party (SPD), a junior partner in Merz’s alliance, indicated on Monday it would be willing to water down planned changes to Germany’s costly and creaking social welfare system in order to placate disgruntled voters. Merz insisted the measures to shore up the healthcare and pension systems were necessary and vowed to remain and fight for them “in the interest of our children and grandchildren”. What about the next two state elections? Voters in the German capital, Berlin, and the Baltic coast state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, two of Germany’s 16 länder, will go to the polls on 20 September. The obvious momentum for the AfD, as well as widespread German dissatisfaction with Merz and his right-left government with the SPD, mean those polls are also fraught with risk for the parties in the federal coalition. The AfD currently has a narrow lead ahead of the co-ruling SPD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, but for now looks unlikely to win an absolute majority. The situation in Berlin – once divided between east and west – looks muddled, with the CDU, far-left Linke and the AfD all jockeying for first place. Even if the CDU managed to hold on to its lead on election day, it would struggle to form an ideologically coherent coalition, dealing Merz and his party another stinging blow that could further destabilise his government.