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Middle East crisis live: Iran says it shot down US fighter jet, warns UN ahead of vote on ‘defensive force’ in strait of Hormuz

Authorities in Abu Dhabi have reported two incidents of debris falling from intercepted aerial threats in the UAE capital, with one sparking a fire at a gas facility, The official Abu Dhabi Media Office said authorities responded to an incident of falling debris at the Habshan gas facilities. “Operations have been suspended while authorities respond to a fire,” it said in a post on X, adding that no injuries were reported. About five minutes later, it reported a separate incident of falling debris in the Ajban area “following successful interception by air defence systems”, without providing further details.

‘Every night they are bombarding’: at border crossing, some Iranians are fleeing war and some are heading home

He could not help but splutter out a laugh at the question. Amir, whose name has been changed for his safety, had just crossed the Kapıköy border point in eastern Turkey, a mountain pass between snow-topped peaks that is one of the few gateways to the west from Iran. Until a few weeks ago, this was a busy place, popular among Iranian daytrippers coming across to Turkey to do some shopping in the lively city of Van, a further two hours drive west, or to spend a couple of nights out in its discreet Iranian-only nightclubs and bars serving alcohol. Back then, there had been plenty of reasons that an Iranian might give for making this trip. But today, just about visible behind Amir, was the lifeless black flag raised a month ago by the Iranian regime after the death under US and Israeli strikes of the supreme leader Ali Khamenei. “Why? Amir asked back with a smile when questioned as to his motivation for leaving Iran. “Boom,” he responded. “Because of the war. Every night they are bombarding.” Not that Amir, who had come from Tehran, was bitter about the American and Israeli campaign. “We must want to get rid of the regime,” he said. “Thank you to Trump,” he added with a weary nod of the head. Amir, 33, a foreign exchange and crypto currency trader by profession, had no means to make a living in Tehran now. “No internet, no job,” Amir said of the internet blackout imposed by the Iranian regime over the last month. “I hope [the bombing] is working. Every night, bombs. Nearby cities, industrial areas and military bases, completely destroyed.” A pharmacologist from Tehran was travelling to see her three adult daughters in Europe and intended to spend three months away. “All of the people live with anxiety,” she said. “I don’t like Trump but it is right this time for the Iranian people. We are very tired about the revolution of [the] Islamic republic of Iran. Most people like Trump because he might change the regime. We are very tired.” Kapıköy, which translates as “village of the gate”, has not witnessed huge numbers of people fleeing Iran. According to the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), close to 64,000 Iranians arrived in Turkey between 3 and 30 March and more than 48,000 Iranian nationals went back into the Islamic Republic. “The current volume of movement remains notably lower than pre-conflict levels, when crossings from both sides averaged approximately 5,000 individuals per day,” a UNHCR spokesperson said. Turkey has plans to manage mobility from the border in case of an influx, creating a buffer zone and establishing tent cities for up to 90,000 people. It has not yet been necessary, although there are four army and security service checkpoints for those driving from the border to Van. Heavily armed soldiers in khaki could be seen on patrol by the roadside. Salvador Gutiérrez, the chief of mission in Iran for the International Organization for Migration, speaking via a video call from Tehran, said people were moving internally within Iran, largely to the northern provinces close to the Caspian Sea. People had been coming back to Tehran and the other cities in recent days, he said. It is understood that part-government-owned corporations that are central to the Iranian economy have started to order people back to work. “Many people have savings or are receiving some support from their families, so I would say they are waiting to see what the outcome will be of this situation,” Gutiérrez said. Trump has spoken of sending Iran “back to the stone age” and he vowed in an address on Wednesday night to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks. Gutiérrez said: “We have seen some interruptions to electricity, water and in some cases fuel supply. If people really begin to struggle having regular access to services, this may trigger onward movement.” The International Organization for Migration estimates more than 82,000 residential units have been hit by the US and Israeli strikes, affecting 180,000 people, but for all the dangers of the war to civilians it is the further economic hit, on top of longstanding sanctions, that is being felt hardest, many at the Kapıköy border point said. Muhammed, 42, who runs a travel business, was heading to Oman. “I have had to completely close the offices,” he said. “I have said to my staff to go and just rest for minimum two months and after that I don’t know what will happen. I am sure that for one year I cannot do anything. “Our house is near to the airport. Each night you hear the big noises. More than a hundred times we have had the bombings. Each night I hear the big noises and then boom, boom. It was very hard for the first three days, but after four, five days it is normal to your mind … I am not sure about the future but I am sure about this point: the war is not good.” A 39-year-old woman on her way to Istanbul from her home in east Tehran said she too quaked at the bombs as they fell at night, although it appeared only military targets were being struck near her. “The people live day by day, go shopping, but at night we are a little bit scared,” she said. “I hope for a change to [the] regime. For more than one month, no internet. It is 2026 – without internet!” The sentiments of those passing through Kapıköy – largely western-facing, often well-educated and with money in their pockets – cannot be said to be a fair straw poll of sentiment in Iran. Selma Ghaemzadeh, 24, said her city of Maragheh, in north-east Iran, had recently come under attack but that she was proud that she lived in a “strong not a weak country”. She was travelling to Van with her parents and 15-year-old brother to do some shopping for a few days but could not imagine a permanent move. “It is not safe, but Iran is my country and it is safe for me,” she said. Many others were too scared to talk. High-profile dissidents hiding in Van have been snatched and returned to Tehran in the past. One woman in designer clothing who had started to talk abruptly stopped after being told by a man to keep quiet. “They are from Iran International,” he said, in reference to the Persian-language TV station based in the UK that has been described by the Iranian regime as a terrorist actor. There was similar reticence as the Iranian Raja Rail Transportation Company’s 24-hour sleeper train from Tehran rolled in to Van train station mid-afternoon with a full load of passengers in its 12 carriages. “It isn’t safe to talk here,” one man said. Others disembarking in the rain were less fearful. Soha, 29, a computer programmer, was on her way to Bangkok. She had no work due to the internet blackout, but it was the bombs landing a kilometre from where she lived that had driven her to get on the train out. “Safety was my biggest problem – a bomb hit next to my house,” she said. Arash, 56, from Kiraj, said: “There are no sirens or shelters. People are getting hurt when they go to the windows to watch the bombs fall.” Moji, 75, and his wife, Sholeh, 73, said the east and west of Tehran had been particularly badly hit. They were off to the US to stay with their sons for six months. Moji, a retired accountant, said he knew of a lot of people who had been injured in the attacks. “People hope it will lead to big changes,” he said. Did he have hope? “Not much.” It is perhaps a strange truth that on some days there are more people returning to Iran via Turkey than leaving, often to be closer to relatives in peril. The Iranian men’s national football team passed through Kapıköy on Wednesday after their 5-0 victory in a friendly against Costa Rica played in Antalya, in southern Turkey. Among others returning at the crossing were a couple who said they were doctors living in Canada. The husband, heaving bags out of a car on to the dusty road, did not want to talk. He vainly suggested that his wife keep her counsel too. “I want to say something, I want to say something,” the woman insisted, balancing her handbag on top of a suitcase and stepping forward. She was in her 40s, smartly dressed, with a white scarf around her neck. “This war is affecting everybody,” she said with intent. “My mum passed away from the stress, the heart attack she had. She was 65. She didn’t have anything wrong with her at all. This war is affecting everyone, either directly or like my mum.” She said she would stay in Tehran for as long as her father needed her. “Thank you,” she added. “I just wanted to tell my story.”

Friday briefing: Why does your Easter egg feel smaller? Because it is

Good morning. Today is Good Friday – if you are following the western church calendar, at least – which still leaves time to panic-buy Easter eggs. While you are doing that, you will almost certainly leave with the impression that you are paying more for less. Why? Shrinkflation is the answer. The chocolate economy has been hit by a series of shocks over the past few years, meaning the pound in your pocket now buys a lot less cocoa than it once did. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Zoe Wood, the Guardian’s consumer affairs correspondent, about why chocolate has become such a visible symbol of inflation, and whether there is any hope that prices might fall again. First, here are the headlines. Five big stories Middle East | Emmanuel Macron has sharply criticised Donald Trump’s inconsistent pronouncements on the Iran war and Nato, saying if “you want to be serious” it was better not to come out with something different every day. UK politics | Yvette Cooper said coordinated action was needed as more than 40 countries gathered to discuss “every possible diplomatic, economic and coordinated measure” to pressurise Iran into reopening the strait of Hormuz. NHS | The NHS is bracing for the longest strike yet by resident doctors after last-ditch talks failed, prompting Wes Streeting to accuse the medics of suffering from “delusion”. Reform UK | Reform UK’s housing spokesperson has been sacked from his role after he described the Grenfell Tower fire as a “tragedy” but said that “everyone dies in the end”. Weather | The UK is bracing for Storm Dave over Easter with winds up to 90mph expected. In depth: ‘People don’t like feeling ripped off. You might just decide you’re not prepared to pay that price’ This year a Galaxy milk chocolate extra large Easter egg is £5.97 in Asda and weighs in at 210g. Last year, the same egg was £4.98, weighing 252g – a 44% increase in the price per 100g. This is shrinkflation: the practice of reducing a product’s size, weight, or quantity while keeping the price the same, effectively raising the price per unit, acting as a hidden form of inflation. It is particularly acute in the chocolate market, where the climate crisis is affecting cocoa growers. “It’s pretty straightforward,” Zoe says. “You’ve had a huge surge in cocoa prices, then energy shocks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and now fresh disruption from conflict in the Middle East. All of that is still rolling through the economy – which is why shrinkflation feels here to stay.” *** What has caused the price increases? “What you’ve had,” Zoe says, “is a huge spike in cocoa costs.” Today the price of cocoa is about £2,500 a tonne, but in 2024 it peaked at nearly £9,000. “It’s nowhere near that peak now, but there’s a time lag because companies buy cocoa in advance on contracts. Big manufacturers would have had some cocoa at lower prices, but they also had to buy at those very high prices. There’s about an 18-month delay before price changes fully feed through,” she says. The cause? The climate crisis. “It was down to impacts on harvests in west Africa responsible for about 70% of global cacao production – particularly in Ghana and the Côte d’Ivoire. They had very difficult growing conditions, with heat, disease and unusual rainfall in recent years contributing to falling production which led to a shortage of cocoa,” explains Zoe. Some manufacturers have even shifted away from cocoa altogether, producing “chocolate-flavoured” products using alternatives such as palm or shea oil. Club and Penguin bars are no longer allowed to describe themselves as featuring chocolate. The price of cocoa may have fallen back to a more reasonable level, but it doesn’t necessarily follow that the price of chocolate on our shelves will fall. *** Why do people care about the price of chocolate so much? Rather like Olympic swimming pools, football pitches or “a country the size of Wales” becoming a shorthand for various sizes, the price of a Freddo has become a kind of shorthand for inflation. (It was 10p from 2000 to 2010, but last year reached 35p, in case you were wondering) Part of that, Zoe explains, is because groceries are universal. “It’s a very crude measure of the cost of living. Retail is something everyone has an opinion on because everyone has to buy food.” That visibility helps explain why chocolate has become so culturally loaded. Alongside familiar, cyclical culture-war rows (“GCSEs are too easy!”; “That person on TV wasn’t wearing a poppy!”; “It’s Merry Christmas, not Happy Holidays!”) comes the annual complaint that Easter eggs are no longer called Easter eggs. Last year Cadbury’s even had to put out a statement saying, “Rest assured that all Cadbury Easter Eggs sold in the UK reference Easter. Cadbury has used the word Easter in our marketing for over 100 years and we continue to do so.” “I think that’s a bit of a distraction,” Zoe says. “I don’t think there’s any deliberate attempt by retailers to downplay Easter. You see similar complaints about hot cross buns or mince pies. It excites people, but retailers just want to sell their product.” Calls for boycotts over pricing, portion sizes or overseas ownership crop up regularly, but “that ship has sailed”, she says. “Most big chocolate brands aren’t UK-owned anyway.” Although she recognises people will still forgo their Easter chocolate, on a point of price as well as principle. “People don’t like feeling ripped off. You might just decide in the supermarket that you’re not prepared to pay that price.” Easter eggs, she adds, have historically been loss leaders – discounted to get shoppers through the door. “If you look at Easter eggs now, they can work out at £40 to £50 per kilo. That’s why they’re getting smaller – it’s the only way to keep the shelf price at something people might pay. Even then, they’re often heavily discounted.” *** But things will get cheaper again, right? After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there was a sharp increase in shelf prices, with food inflation reaching about 19% at its peak. “There’s that old expression – prices go up like a rocket and fall like a feather,” Zoe says. “I wouldn’t be overly optimistic about big price falls. We still have inflation – it’s just not rising as quickly as it was.” And there may be more pressure to come. “We’re now looking at the possibility of another round of food price inflation, driven by supply chain disruption and energy costs linked to conflict in the Middle East.” There is also a delay built into the system. Fuel prices react quickly to shocks, but food takes longer. “With food, it’s more of a slow-burn effect. You have to buy ingredients, ship them, manufacture the product, then distribute. If disruption continues, you might see the impact in the summer.” *** Is there any way to feel better about what you’re buying? For those thinking more broadly about what they buy, Zoe points to the growth of more ethical brands. “There are companies like Tony’s Chocolonely that focus on fair supply chains.” And even the big brands, she adds, now often carry Fairtrade or Rainforest Alliance certification. If you are still in the market for Easter eggs, then Tom Hunt taste-tested British supermarket ones for the Filter – a job I am slightly envious of. So whether you are marking the religious holiday, the long weekend, or simply the annual ritual of eating slightly too much chocolate, enjoy it – and have a very happy Easter. What else we’ve been reading Swedish singer-songwriter Zara Larsson has taken the music industry by storm in the past year, now fourth-biggest female artist on the global Spotify. Owen Myers speaks to Zara about her rapid rise. Patrick An in-depth look for i-D magazine by Nicolaia Rips asks – not to put too fine a point on it – are gen Z having sex? It makes me glad my formative dating years were all strictly offline. Martin Coverage of the Iran war has been dominated by missiles and oil prices. This piece about how the Iranian regime is using the death penalty to suppress dissent is a very human read on life inside Iran at the moment. Patrick Be warned, the details in this are almost unthinkable, but Kim Devins talks to Anna Moore about the murder of Bianca Devins, whose dead and mutilated body became memeified on the darkest corners of the internet. Martin Henry’s mum is constantly losing her headphones, and he is sick of buying her replacements. Is this fair? Our You be the judge series is a mother and son dispute this week. Patrick Sport Football | The French giants OL Lyonnes booked another Women’s Champions League semi-final meeting with Arsenal after they fought back with a convincing second-leg victory to eliminate Wolfsburg. World Cup 2026 | More than half of World Cup countries face extra costs as Fifa fails to agree US tax deal. Football | How 11 Premier League clubs could qualify for Europe next season. Something for the weekend Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read, play and listen to right now Film Fuze | ★★★☆☆ There are some lively if borderline ridiculous shenanigans in this London heist thriller from screenwriter Ben Hopkins and director David Mackenzie, brazening out its innate silliness with chutzpah, heavily researched police and army lingo and athletic plot contortions. It’s a violent affair of double-cross and triple-cross that ups its narrative game in the final act for the massive reveal: a head-spinning story of diamonds, some fake … yet also … some real. It all rattles along watchably enough, taking in more locations than just boring old London, though you’ll find your credulity stretched almost to breaking point. Peter Bradshaw TV Dear Killer Nannies | ★★★★☆ You’d be forgiven for thinking that we didn’t need another TV series about the drug kingpin Pablo Escobar’s life, and that it’s been milked for all its worth in popular culture. The new Spanish language series Dear Killer Nannies, however, manages to find a new and unexpected way into the life of an archetypal villain, which focuses very little on the bloodshed that has made his life so ripe for movies and television. In terms of genre, the show – co-created by Escobar’s son Juan Pablo Escobar – is far more coming-of-age than action. Of course, you can expect the obligatory car crashes and shootouts. But Dear Killer Nannies’ biggest gut-punches are quieter and bloodless. Micha Frazer-Carroll Music Sunn O))): Sunn O))) | ★★★★☆ Nearly seven years on from Sunn O)))’s last two albums, the Steve Albini-produced companion pieces Life Metal and Pyroclasts, the drone metal pioneers’ 10th album presents itself as a return to basics. But clearly the notion of a back-to-basics album should not be confused with that of an understated one. It’s not really an adjective that fits something that lasts the best part of 90 minutes, comes wrapped in a sleeve featuring two Mark Rothko paintings – by permission of the painter’s estate – and features somewhere between 130 and 180 tracks of guitar per song. This is music you have to submit to – that doesn’t make sense unless you give it your full and undivided attention. Alexis Petridis Games Life Is Strange: Reunion | ★★★★☆ In 2015, Life Is Strange stood out for two reasons: its female protagonists, a depressingly rare feature at the time, and its unique brand of millennial cringe. The thirtysomething Frenchmen who created this series may not have had the best grasp of the 2010s teen lexicon, but they did have a good gauge on what’s important about any coming-of-age story, and that’s the relationships between the characters. If Life Is Strange were a Netflix series, I would probably have stopped watching it a few episodes in. Instead, it’s a game I’ve been playing for more than a decade, and I care about these characters. Max and Chloe deserved this chance to end their story – and so did we. Keza MacDonald The front pages The Guardian reports on the Nato crisis, with “You have to be serious, Macron tells Trump in rebuke over Nato”. The Mirror leads on the funeral home scandal in Hull, with “Faces of the betrayed”, while the Express has “Funeral home ‘monster should rot in jail’”. The Mail leads with “Fears of ‘thousands’ hit by Britain’s worst funeral home scandal”. The Times says “Miliband set to back North Sea gasfield”. The i says “King will warn Trump: don’t turn your back on us.” The Telegraph leads with a report on shoplifting, with: “M&S attacks lawless Britain”. The Sun reports on the struggles of Artemis II with “Houston wee have a problem”. Today in Focus The families torn apart by the Minab school bombing Tess McClure reports on the US bombing of the Shajareh Tayyebeh school in Iran, and the families who lost loved ones in the attack. Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad Swifts are wheeling, screaming endurance athletes. They don’t touch the Earth for nine months of the year and fly about 14,000 miles annually – travelling from sub-Saharan Africa to nest in the UK, then back again. In Britain, they’re the sign that summer is coming or taking its leave. In between, they provide a heart-soaring display of beauty. No wonder they’re beloved. They are also in trouble, with populations declining by 68% in the UK from 1995 to 2023. But don’t despair, there are things you can do to help out our flying visitors this summer including protecting insects, helping grounded birds and buying a swift brick. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

Pope Leo’s first Easter: one year in, what do Catholics think of the new pontiff?

As Leo marks his inaugural Easter as pontiff, almost a year after his predecessor’s death, some Catholics are still trying to work out what kind of pontiff he is. The feast – the most important in the church’s calendar – comes against the backdrop of war in the Middle East, sparked by the US-Israeli strikes in Iran. Leo, mild-mannered and diplomatic compared with the charismatic but often hasty and divisive Francis, has on more than one occasion indirectly rebuked the actions of US president Donald Trump and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and on Palm Sunday delivered his strongest condemnation yet when he said God ignores the prayers of leaders with “hands full of blood”. And while popes rarely criticise world leaders by name, instead railing against their policies, Leo did name Trump on Tuesday when he told journalists he hoped the US president would find an “off-ramp” to end the war in Iran. Still, some Catholics are hoping for a more explicit moral reckoning from their pope. “I’d like to see him be a bit more vocal about what’s going on in the world, we are in such turmoil,” said Joanne Coleman, a religion teacher from Ireland. Speaking as the pope delivered his general audience in St Peter’s Square on Wednesday morning, she added: “I think he’s a good person with good intentions but he must get louder, especially with Trump.” Gabriele, who works at a souvenir shop on the corner of the square, agrees. “People say to give him time, but now is not the time for being timid. He’s an American for goodness sake – I thought they were supposed to be more direct?” Francis often condemned Trump’s policies on issues such as immigration and the climate crisis, and ruptured Vatican relations with Israel after sharply criticising its war on Gaza. In the months before being elected pontiff, when he was cardinal Robert Prevost, Leo made no secret of his distaste for the Trump government’s policies, criticising its immigration and deportation plans on social media and sharing an op-ed published in the National Catholic Reporter titled “JD Vance is wrong: Jesus doesn’t ask us to rank our love for others,” after the US vice-president claimed Christianity’s concept of love was to prioritise one’s family before others. This led to an expectation that Leo would be just as publicly outspoken as Francis – but diplomacy was quickly favoured: Vance and Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, were hosted at the Vatican within two weeks of Leo’s election. Iacopo Scaramuzzi, the Vatican correspondent for La Repubblica newspaper, said Leo was a “pragmatic” person whose strategy is “calibrated not on the resonance of his words but on the efficacy of his actions”, pointing to the Vatican’s behind-the-scenes role as a mediator in Venezuela and Cuba and attempts to prevent US military action in both countries. “The Holy See is playing a role of mediation within its limits,” said Scaramuzzi. “It can’t present its intervention as a magic wand or the divine intervention … the Holy See is a chancellor listened to throughout the world because it has a moral authority, but also a relative power.” In July last year, Leo toughened his tone on Israel when he condemned the “barbarity” of the Gaza war, including a strike that hit the strip’s only Catholic church. Two months later, he held a private audience at the Vatican with Israeli president Isaac Herzog, in an effort to restore diplomatic attempts to end the war. Holy Week began with another clash, after Israeli police prevented Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, an Italian archbishop with Catholic jurisdiction across Israel and the Palestinian territories, from entering the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem to conduct mass on Palm Sunday. The US, France and Italy criticised the incident, and the US ambassador in Israel, Mike Huckabee, a devout evangelical Christian, described it as “an unfortunate overreach”. Israeli authorities subsequently apologised to Pizzaballa, a move Scaramuzzi said was probably due to Leo’s influence. Scaramuzzi believes the Vatican is discreetly intervening with the White House too, perhaps using the channel established with Vance and Rubio. “We’re in a very delicate period and Leo’s strategy is to use his influence and work discreetly rather than make public pronouncements. He appears soft in form, but is strong in substance.” As Leo moves cautiously, he has been relying on his college of cardinals to make harsher criticisms of the US-Israeli decision to go to war in Iran without the UN’s backing. In March, Cardinal Domenico Battaglia in Naples addressed an open letter to “the merchants of death” profiting from weapons’ sales, while the Washington DC cardinal Robert McElroy said the conflict “fails to meet the just war threshold for a morally legitimate war”. And while he will refrain from naming names, he is expected to up his opposition to the war in Iran and other wars in his promotion of peace during his Easter Sunday address, which tends to be as much a political message as it is a spiritual one. “When people say they want him to be louder, what they’re saying is they want him to be Francis,” said Andrea Vreede, Vatican correspondent for NOS, the Dutch public radio and TV network. “His words might not be accompanied by fireworks or unexpected gestures, which was Francis, but at the same time Leo is not mincing his words. The problem is he’s not being heard enough, but I think since Palm Sunday, that is changing.”

Hungary elections: what is at stake and who is likely to win?

Hungarians go to the polls on 12 April in Europe’s most consequential election of the year, with Viktor Orbán, the country’s illiberal prime minister and global far-right icon, facing possible defeat, after 16 years in power, by a former loyalist, Péter Magyar. What is the story and why does it matter? The EU’s longest-serving leader, Orbán has since 2010 turned Hungary into what he calls an “illiberal democracy”, declaring himself Europe’s defender of traditional Christian family values against an onslaught of western liberalism and multiculturalism. His four successive governments have comprehensively eroded the rule of law in Hungary, packing the courts with judges loyal to him and turning up to 80% of the country’s media in effect into a propaganda machine for himself and his far-right Fidesz party. He has become the EU’s disruptor-in-chief, battling with Brussels – which has suspended billions of euros in funding – over policies including on justice, migration, LGBTQ+ rights and, more recently, aid for Ukraine, which, along with sanctions against Russia, he has consistently blocked (including the latest €90bn loan). Orbán is the EU’s most Moscow-friendly leader, continuing to buy Russian oil and gas and to meet Vladimir Putin since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Recent allegations that Budapest shared confidential EU information with the Kremlin have sparked EU outrage. Orbán has inspired like-minded EU-obstructive leaders such as Slovakia’s Robert Fico and the Czech Republic’s Andrej Babiš, and boosted nationalist challengers such as France’s Marine Le Pen and the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders. In short, this month’s election will have consequences far beyond Hungary, a country that accounts for just 1.1% of the EU’s GDP and 2% of its population but has, under Orbán, come to play a role on the international stage out of all proportion to its size. Who are the key players and what are their platforms? Orbán, 62, has been endorsed by Donald Trump, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, and Alice Weidel of Alternative für Deutschland. He was an anti-communist youth leader during the cold war and – with funding from his subsequent arch-enemy, the philanthropist George Soros – briefly researched “the concept of civil society in European political thought” at Oxford. His Fidesz party’s 2010 supermajority enabled him to rewrite Hungary’s constitution and pass laws consolidating executive power, curbing NGOs and media freedoms, and severely weakening judicial independence. This year, Orbán has run a classic populist campaign. He has sought to frame the vote as a choice between war or peace, telling voters they can preserve Hungary as “an island of security and tranquility” by electing him, or drag it into chaos and war by choosing Magyar, whom he paints as an agent of Brussels and Kyiv. Polls suggest voters are more concerned with domestic issues such as healthcare and the economy, which has stagnated for the past three years. Food prices have risen to near the EU average while Hungarian wages are the third lowest in the bloc. Magyar, 45, formerly a Fidesz disciple and loyal member of Orbán’s inner circle, burst into the limelight two years ago after his ex-wife, Judit Varga, resigned as Orbán’s justice minister when it emerged that Hungary’s conservative president, Katalin Novák, a key ally of the prime minister, had pardoned a man convicted in a sexual abuse case. Magyar, a former diplomat who trained as a lawyer, distanced himself from Fidesz, accusing it of corruption and propaganda, and launched his Tisza (Respect and Freedom) party. It won 30% of the vote in the June 2024 European elections in Hungary, finishing second to Fidesz. Magyar has pledged to return Hungary to a pro-EU orientation, end its dependence on Russian energy, restore an independent public media and judiciary, boost the economy, halt huge Orbán-era corruption, sanitise public procurement and unlock frozen EU funds. How does the election work and who is likely to win? Since 2010, Orbán has made hundreds of changes to electoral rules, including nearly halving the number of parliamentary seats to 199 and creating 106 unevenly sized single-member constituencies (the remaining MPs are elected proportionally using party lists). The result is a Fidesz-friendly system, with far fewer votes needed to win in pro-Fidesz districts. Orbàn has also made it easier for the mostly pro-Fidesz Hungarians living in nearby countries to vote, and handed policy sweeteners to mostly loyal voter groups such as pensioners. This means Tisza, which has an 8-12 percentage point lead among decided voters in most polls (although pro-government pollsters put the ruling party ahead), may need a six-point win over Fidesz to secure a majority. Polling averages put the opposition party on 50% of the national vote and Fidesz on 39%. However, up to 25% of respondents are undecided, and experts warn that national polling does not reflect the complexities of Hungary’s gerrymandered constituencies. Fidesz is more popular among retirement-age voters, polls suggest, leading Tisza by 50% to 20% in some polls, while Tisza is strongly ahead among under-40s and urban voters. Turnout could reach record heights of more than 80%, pollsters say. What could happen? Broadly, observers see three possible outcomes: a Magyar majority that Orbàn accepts; a Magyar majority that Orbàn does not accept; or an Orbàn majority. All would come with consequences. For the reasons outlined above, Hungary’s elections can be categorised as free but not fair, and the chances of an Orbàn victory cannot be excluded. If he wins, he would almost certainly double down, conflict with the EU would intensify and domestic authoritarianism would increase. If Orbán loses, especially by a narrow margin, he could contest the result. That would place the EU in an entirely unprecedented position and, despite likely opposition from Orbán allies, could eventually lead to the suspension of Budapest’s voting rights. A Magyar victory acknowledged by Orbán would certainly ease EU-Hungary relations, although the opposition leader is hardly a progressive, and Hungarian policy on hot-button issues such as immigration is unlikely to change much. Domestically, moreover, unless Tisza wins a supermajority (133 seats), it is unclear how much a Tisza-led government would be able to do: Orbán has ensured many laws need a supermajority to be changed and has stuffed all major state institutions with loyalists.

Nuns who broke back into their Austrian convent ‘are step closer to being able to stay’

Three nuns who escaped from a care home to return to their convent in a castle close to Salzburg where they had spent most of their lives are a step closer to being able to stay there, sources close to them say. Sisters Bernadette, Regina and Rita, who are in their early to late eighties, broke into their convent home in Elsbethen last September with the help of former pupils of the Catholic school at which they had taught and other supporters. Their case became a cause célèbre, attracting attention from around the world. The Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith (DDF), a Vatican department in charge of religious discipline in the Catholic church, has yet to officially decide on the women’s fate and could still take months to do so. However, plans to bring them to Rome are thought to be a positive sign in the nuns’ favour, bringing the row about their future closer to a resolution. An aide close to the nuns told Austrian media that the Vatican was “in principle” in favour of giving the sisters the right to remain in their convent. However, its official ruling is still outstanding. The sisters have been fighting a campaign by their superior, who accused them of breaking the “vow of obedience” they made when they were ordained by leaving the care home into which they were moved in 2023. Provost Markus Grasl, from the nearby Reichersberg Abbey, had said that the convent was no longer suitable for the nuns owing to several flights of stone stairs and other conditions “too precarious” for their advancing ages. The trio say they were sent to the care home against their will and they wish to die at their convent, housed in the imposing Schloss Goldenstein, citing the church law of stabilitas loci: the vow of permanence a person entering a holy order is expected to make in return for the commitment towards them from the church. Local helpers have provided them with round the clock care and security, including refitting locks that had been changed in their absence and reinstalling a stair lift that had been removed. The nuns, who are of the Augustinian order, had appealed to Pope Leo XIV, a fellow Augustinian, to intervene on their behalf. To what extent he has involved himself in their case is unclear. But church insiders say he has been made aware of their plight. Thanks to a donation said to have been made by a private individual or a group of persons who wish to remain anonymous, the nuns are due to travel to Rome within the next two months, accompanied by medical staff, and are expected to have an audience with the pontiff. A spokesperson for them told the Austrian broadcaster ORF: “The three nuns are very happy to be able to travel to Rome. They have never been there before and the journey will be something quite special for them.” Andreas Englisch, a prominent German Vatican-watcher, said in his weekly podcast Vatikangeflüster (Vatican Whispering) that a “generous” donor or donors based in Rome had contacted him directly, but he did not know, or would not divulge, their identity. He said he believed the nuns could expect a private audience with Pope Leo. “I am sure that he will want to receive them,” he said. The nuns built up a considerable following on Instagram and Facebook, posting clips from their daily lives including proof of their fitness to stay in their convent. The posts had helped keep their situation in the limelight. But they reduced their social media output at the end of last year in agreement with the Vatican on the understanding, it has been reported, that this would help their chances of staying in the convent. The request came in response to a letter the nuns had written to the Vatican in which they had complained of their treatment by Grasl and the Reichersberg foundation, which part owns the convent building with the archdiocese of Salzburg. Through aides, they told Austrian media they had received an answer in which they were informed that the Dicastery was “working to find a just, humane, and sustainable solution” to end the row. In return they were asked to “seek inner peace and reflection in the spirit of seclusion”. The nuns thanked the public for their sympathy and support at the time, insisting that without the media attention they would have been “helplessly exposed to the ruthlessness and arbitrariness of our superior”. The Guardian has contacted a spokesperson for the nuns for comment.

A day in the life of Asia’s fuel crisis

Kaipara, New Zealand James Brady, farmer 4.30am We’ve got a small dairy farm, north of Auckland. We milk 200 cows and have a small amount of beef cattle and young stock. We start about 4.30am in the morning – checking cows, feeding, milking and then we do it again in the afternoon. Most of the day is spent tending to stock, moving animals, and we’re busy renewing pastures at the moment. Diesel is our main fuel – we run two tractors and machinery. We have quad bikes that run on petrol. Each month we use 900 litres of diesel and 200–300 litres of petrol. We’ve just used up last month’s diesel and we’ve been paying about NZ$1.85 a litre ($1; £0.80). Diesel is up $1.03 per litre and petrol up 33c per litre. That means an increase of $1,252 a month, or $15,024 a year. It’s not just our own fuel supply – it’s the contractors that come into do work, and fertiliser has gone up 40%. It all has huge flow-on effects to our costs. As a farmer, you have nobody to pass that cost on to. That might mean we’re not investing in the farm, or we have to put off, or delay, maintenance costs. We’re trying to run as efficiently as we can – we’re not just using equipment and burning fuel for the sake of it. But we’re a bit stuck – the cows still need to be fed, we still need to harvest the feed. It’s all essential activity.” Port Vila, Vanuatu Daniel Thomas, 47, bus driver 10:00am The threat of higher fuel prices is making people in Port Vila nervous. The government says fuel prices will increase soon and like many people here, I’m worried I won’t make enough to cover all my expenses. I drive my bus from 6am to 9pm through the streets of Port Vila. I make about A$120 a day ($82; £62) and I’m buying fuel every few days. When prices increase, I could be taking home as little as A$70 a day, and that might not be enough to cover loan repayments and other expenses. With temperatures up around 30C in Port Vila, our buses must run with air-conditioning, chewing up even more fuel. In Vanuatu, lots of drivers have loans on their vehicles and they don’t know how they will pay the bank every month once fuel gets more expensive. The only option will be to hike fares, and that won’t go down well with passengers in Port Vila. It’s putting drivers in a tough position but without raising fares we won’t be able to survive. Sejong, South Korea Kim Hooin, 55, public service worker 10.30am My morning starts the same way it always has: alarm at 6:20am in my apartment in Cheongju. But the journey to work has changed. Since 25 March, when the government imposed mandatory vehicle restrictions on public sector workers, I’ve been taking the bus every day. The vehicle five-day system means I can’t drive one day a week based on my licence plate number. Even on days I could drive, I choose not to. Fuel prices have risen so much. I leave home 15 minutes earlier to catch the 7:10am bus to Sejong, the administrative capital 130km south of Seoul. I listen to music or watch YouTube during the 40-minute commute. Before the restrictions, I drove my own car in 25 minutes. It takes longer now, but I arrive early for work anyway, so there’s no real inconvenience. I work at a government agency and my job involves managing and driving three vehicles and planning daily transport for officials. We follow the five-day rules strictly and only use vehicles when absolutely necessary, prioritising electric cars. When I arrive at the office at 7:50am, I plug in the government EVs, inspect everything’s OK, and prepare the driving schedule. The government’s 12-point energy-saving campaign also calls for shorter showers, charging phones during the day, and doing laundry on weekends. At home, I no longer fill the bathtub. It’s not just about showers, it means saving water, so I take light showers instead. I do my washing on weekends anyway. For phone charging, I try to do it during the day, but because of work I need to charge it anytime, day or night. I think this energy campaign isn’t just about those specific actions. It’s the message of overcoming difficulties together. The measures feel manageable, and Korean people have always had a strong spirit of frugality. We’ve overcome crises before. We endured the 1997 IMF crisis, the 2013 blackout risks, Covid, of course. If the government does its part and citizens cooperate, we can get through this too. Surin province, Thailand Teerayut Ruenrerng, owner of a mobile grocery truck 12pm At about midday, I return home from my morning selling session. I’ll pass three gas stations on the way and stop at each one. Sometimes I can get fuel, sometimes I can’t. Sometimes they will only give me 300 baht or 500 baht (US$9.15 to US$15.25) worth. At lunchtime I take a break, and sleep for about an hour. I start work at midnight. If I’m able to fill up a full tank, I can relax because I know I don’t need to search for gas for at least three days and it’s guaranteed I can go out and sell. But if I can’t find any, I start to get stressed and panic about what I’ll do if I can’t get fuel. It’s very hard to find diesel, and everything has become more expensive. [The war] has impacted the whole system. It has probably affected my profits by up to 20%. At the market [where I buy my produce] the prices have gone up, and things I’ve ordered sometimes don’t arrive. Say I ordered 10kg of chicken, only 5kg will arrive. It’s hard for me to plan. Even the plastic bags I use to package my goods have gone up in price. I sell pork, chicken, seafood, fish and processed meat. We also sell vegetables and fruits as well as sauces and condiments. I sell these at about four villages in the morning and four villages in the evening. I have had to raise some of my prices, even though I didn’t want to, because right now I cannot bear the cost. We are not only facing the impact of the Iran war, but things have been more difficult ever since the conflict between Cambodia and Thailand. If we don’t have any support, we probably will not last long and we will have to stop doing what we are doing. Kita Senju, Tokyo Koichi Matsumoto, sento bathhouse owner 3pm My grandfather opened Takara-yu (treasure water) bathhouse in the 1930s. Then my father took over, and I’ve run it with my younger brother for the past 35 years, so we’re the third generation. The building is the same and the interior has hardly changed, so it’s also a popular location for TV dramas. In the old days, when no one had baths at home, hundreds, and sometimes thousands, of people bathed here every day. It’s hard to imagine now. Our customers are mainly older local people who come on foot or by bicycle. Most bathhouses use oil to heat their water, but five years ago we switched to gas. Either way, heating costs have soared in recent years, and I expect gas prices to start rising again soon if the war in Iran continues. We and other sento are struggling on several fronts. Fewer people go in for communal bathing these days, the owners are getting old and their ageing facilities cost more to maintain. The bathing fee (¥550 [$3.45; £2.60] for adults) is set by the Tokyo metropolitan government, so I couldn’t increase admission, even if I wanted to. In any case, fewer people would come, so things even themselves out in the end. The fallout from the energy crisis hasn’t reached us yet, but I expect gas prices to rise soon. We receive subsidies from the metropolitan government, but it’s still going to be a struggle. If fuel costs rise and the footfall stays the same, I’ll have to start thinking seriously about the future, not least because I’ll be 76 soon. Some sento are reinventing themselves by offering food and drink and entertainment, but it’s very different for most of the others. They’ll weigh up the pros and cons and a lot will decide they have no choice but to close. Bondi, Sydney Belinda Morgan, interior designer 4pm We’re pretty scared to be honest. That’s probably the only word to use. I don’t regularly watch the news as a daily habit, but I’m checking every day what’s happening with Iran because it’s something that affects the entire world. I work in interior design, and the minute these things start to escalate, it’s the construction industry that gets hit. So work goes very quiet for [my husband] Matt as well. It’s frightening, because you don’t know how long it’s going to go on for. I just started looking for jobs, because I don’t know whether people are even going to want to spend money on renovating right now, or are going to want a designer. I’m pretty much throwing everything at it, which I think is part of the panic setting in. I’m applying for jobs, like remote jobs with AI, because there’s lots of those kinds of jobs happening at the moment. And I’ve been looking at doing extra marketing [for my business], so spending more money on advertising, hoping I can capture some of those few people out there who are still renovating and want a designer. We’re trying to cut costs in the family. We’re trying to conserve everything, money, fuel, just not be wasteful. We are looking at things like, do we drive tomorrow to the swimming lessons, or do we put them on hold until things start to pick up? Normally, we wouldn’t even think about not getting in the car. Generally, I’m thinking “do I need to make this trip?” a lot of the time. Delhi: Rajesh Singh Worker at an Amazon warehouse 7pm As I get ready for work, my eyes keep returning to the gas stove. I last ate yesterday afternoon, some lentils with chapatis. It has been more than a day. I am very hungry, but there is only enough gas left for four or five meals. I hold back, saving it for worse days. There are a couple of cucumbers and tomatoes. I will cut them, add salt, and eat that, and save one more day. Even the dhaba (roadside eatery) is no longer what it was. A chapati that cost 10 rupees (10 cents; 8p) is now 12; a plate of dal and sabzi, once 70, is now 160. I have worked at this Amazon warehouse for five years, unloading packages and earning about 12,000 rupees ($128; £97) a month. The shifts are a minimum 10 hours long, with barely any rest. I was managing, just about. My family back home in Uttar Pradesh did not believe me when I said I had nothing to send. To them, a big company meant a steady income. Since the second week of March, everything has changed for the worse. A kilogram of gas that cost about 100 rupees is now close to 400. The rent for the room I share has gone up from 4,500 to 5,200 rupees. I had to borrow money from a friend to get through the month. For two weeks now, I have been eating just one meal a day, mostly a banana with two pieces of bread. The heat is rising, and at work I often feel dizzy, about to collapse. Many co-workers have left and gone back home. Others are preparing to leave. I will wait two more weeks. If nothing improves, I will go back to my family, if I can.” Beijing Cui Xinming, 37, taxi driver 10.30pm As soon as I heard that the price of fuel was going to increase on 24 March, I rushed to the petrol station. There were loads of cars queueing to get gas. As someone who drives for up to 12 hours a day, a full tank normally lasts me between two to two-and-a-half days. I’m a bit concerned that the war between Iran and the US could have an impact on China, but it’s not really something I should be worrying about, because the government will regulate it. For example, this fuel increase was only about 50% of what it should have been to ease the burden on ordinary people. Still, I’m not happy that oil prices are high. I’m only willing to talk to the Guardian because you’re British. I wouldn’t talk to you if you were American, because it’s the US that’s keeping oil prices high. China will never face a big energy crisis. It has very large oil reserves. And it doesn’t rely only on Iran. It also imports a lot of oil from Russia. We’ve been expanding our partnerships. Anyway, our country is relying more and more on clean energy. We’re no longer dependent on oil. The government started planning for this years ago. My car still runs on petrol, but in a while these vehicles will disappear. In Beijing, soon there won’t be any petrol taxis left, they’ll all be electric vehicles. I’ve considered making the switch myself. But more likely I’ll probably quit this job in about a year, it’s just too tiring. I want to go and be a wanderer, just driving wherever the road takes me, maybe becoming a content creator, or travelling around by bike. Additional reseach by Lillian Yang and Yu-chen Li

Canadian woman held with daughter by ICE is released after nearly three weeks of detention

A Canadian woman and her seven-year-old daughter, who were held for nearly three weeks in a notorious detention center by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), were released on Thursday evening after posting a bond of $9,500. Tania Warner and her daughter Ayla Luca, originally from British Columbia, are both Canadian citizens. Warner moved to the US in 2021 when she married Edward Warner, a US citizen. “Very happy to have my family home … it’s been a whirlwind day,” said Edward Warner. After her release, Tania Warner told CBC News a judge decided that she and Ayla were not a flight risk, though she has been fitted with an ankle monitor. She said her immigration lawyer was able to argue that her documents had been filed correctly and that she is legally allowed to extend her time in the US. The pair will now face a series of hearings to see if they can stay in the US, or if they will be deported. She and her family have maintained that all her immigration paperwork is up-to-date and that they were detained arbitrarily. Warner and her daughter were initially taken into ICE custody on 14 March. The family lives in Kingsville, Texas, and were driving home from a baby shower in Raymondville when they were stopped at a checkpoint in Sarita. The pair were apprehended by ICE agents to be fingerprinted but then never returned. After they were incarcerated, Edward Warner told the Vancouver Sun that ICE officials said “she overstayed her visa”, though he provided the paper with a copy of a US “employment authorization” card issued to his wife last year, and it had an expiry date of 8 June 2030. Though originally held at Rio Grande Valley central processing center in McAllen, Texas, Warner and her daughter, who has autism, were moved to the Dilley immigration processing center in south Texas on 20 March. While in Dilley, Warner told the Guardian that the treatment of her and her daughter has been “horrific” from the start. At Rio Grande, no beds were provided and detainees slept on mats with the lights on 24 hours a day, she said. At Dilley, there was some comfort in having a mattress to sleep on. But she said there was no privacy and ICE agents were constantly pressuring her to “self-deport”. “They’re abusive, and their tactics are to threaten you and to be so inhospitable that you deport yourself,” Warner said. She said she did not want to have to leave the US. “My life is here with my husband. I love him. I don’t want to leave. But at the same time, I’ve gotten a really ugly taste in my mouth for the United States,” she said. When asked about their case the week they were detained, Global Affairs Canada, the federal ministry that handles consular services and diplomatic relations, said it was “aware of multiple cases of Canadians currently or previously in immigration-related detention in the US”. “Consular officials advocate for Canadian citizens abroad and raise concerns about justified and serious complaints of ill-treatment or discrimination with the local authorities but cannot exempt Canadians from local legal processes,” a spokesperson said. “Due to privacy considerations, no further information can be disclosed.” Approached for comment on 20 March, ICE asked for more information about the Warners’ case. The Guardian provided that information, but nearly two weeks later, ICE has not replied. Global Affairs and ICE have been contacted again for comment regarding the pair’s release.