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‘Like being in prison’: the ship crews stuck in Gulf since February

The panicked crew of a cargo ship broadcast a distress signal late on Monday night from their location in the strait of Hormuz. About 20 nautical miles north of the coast of Oman, the Minoan Pioneer bulk carrier was hit by an unknown projectile, causing a blackout in the engine room and a fire in the accommodation area. The crew scrambled to put out the blaze and called for help from nearby vessels. When they managed to disembark from the Greek-owned, Liberian-flagged ship on Tuesday morning, they realised the third engineer was missing. Days later, he is yet to be found. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre is investigating but has not yet officially confirmed the origin of the projectile, although analysts at the maritime intelligence company Windward noted: “Prior kinetic attacks at this exact location have been Iranian in origin, though Iran denies involvement.” In the preceding 24 hours two other vessels in the region, a large- and a medium-sized oil tanker, had reported near-misses. The flurry of incidents casts a spotlight on the danger facing the thousands of seafarers who remain trapped in the Gulf as the US-led war on Iran extends into its sixth month. What should have been a normal journey when they passed through the strait and entered the Gulf back in February has turned into a long and stressful waiting game. Iran has in effect blockaded the waterway, trapping 20,000 seafarers for weeks on end and inflicting a huge psychological toll. One seafarer stuck in the Gulf told the Guardian in the early weeks of the conflict of the “impossible” situation they and their crew were in, which had contributed to another sailor having a breakdown. As the war has dragged on, sailors have become casualties: 17 seafarers have died since hostilities began, the majority following Iranian strikes. The crews stuck in the strait have had their hopes of departure raised several times, before being dashed. April’s ceasefire and the peace deal signed in June by Washington and Tehran both broke down shortly after being announced. Several dozen oil and gas tankers seized the brief window offered by the memorandum of understanding (MOU), the ceasefire deal signed by both sides, to exit through the channel, but not all made it through in time. There are still 6,000 seafarers on 500 vessels, encompassing all types of ships, trapped in the Gulf, according to the UN’s International Maritime Organization. “We need to remember that these are innocent people who are trained to do the work, that they are not trained for combat, and the vessels are not prepared to defend themselves against missiles and drones,” said the IMO’s secretary-general, Arsenio Dominguez. For the crews stuck waiting to exit it is like being in “prison”, the head of one of India’s maritime trade unions said. “For the guys who are on board, the question that arises is, when is this going to end? The uncertainty of the ongoing geopolitical tension is causing them stress,” said Savio Ramos, general secretary of the Maritime Union of India, which represents merchant navy officers. “It is like putting somebody in prison and not giving them freedom to move,” added Ramos, a tanker captain with more than two decades of experience moving large oil carriers around the globe. “You don’t know where you’re going, you don’t what you’re doing. It gets to you after some time.” Most vessels – at least those with responsible owners – are receiving regular supplies of fresh water, food and other goods ferried by small boats from shore, yet most crews have no way of getting out of a perilous situation. Ramos said some of the union’s members who wanted to return home had been able to do so, provided other senior officers were willing to enter the region and replace them. Talks have been taking place, mediated by Oman, which along with Iran borders the waterway. However, the two countries’ proposed deal suggested Tehran would have control over the flow of traffic entering the Gulf. This would not be popular with shipowners or the wider industry and would be a significant deviation from the freedom of navigation for vessels before the conflict. Traffic is still passing through the strait, albeit at extremely low levels, since hostilities and attacks on ships resumed following the collapse of the MOU peace deal. Only 52 non-Iranian linked vessels transited the strait in the week from 27 July to 2 August, according to analysts at the shipping publication Lloyd’s List, of which 60% exited the channel and 40% entered. A further 32 Iranian-linked ships passed through the strait during the week. In total, these 84 vessels represent just over 10% of the average 700 ship movements each week before the conflict broke out. This means 70 large oil and gas tankers, owned by mainstream companies that are not subject to sanctions, have been stranded in the Gulf since February, according to Lloyd’s List analysis. A further 65 tankers entered the region following the announcement of the MOU, only to find themselves unable to leave. It is not clear how the stranded seafarers break down by nationality, but the biggest cohorts are likely to be Indians and Filipinos. India is the second largest global supplier of seafarers, with 312,000 working in the industry, after the 460,000 from the Philippines, according to the latest global seafarer report from the shipping associations the Baltic and International Maritime Council and the International Chamber of Shipping. Since the war on Iran began, hostilities have spread to other regions including the Red Sea and Iraq. In addition, Russia and Ukraine have been attacking each other’s vessels in the Black Sea in an escalation of a maritime conflict in which 24 seafarers have been killed since the start of July. This prompted analysts from Lloyd’s to call July “one of the deadliest months ever for commercial seafarers”. Many in shipping are concerned that the longer the Iran conflict drags on and crews are stuck on vessels in a dangerous region, the fewer seafarers will be willing to travel to dangerous regions – or go to sea at all. The IMO chief, Dominguez, pointed out that without seafarers the “90% of goods that are transported by ships will not be able to reach their final destinations and all of us are going to be impacted”.

Russian family denied asylum in Finland fear reprisals for pro-Ukraine activism

A Russian family faces deportation from Finland after repeatedly being denied asylum – despite the threat of arrest, imprisonment and potential torture for their pro-Ukrainian activism. Nikita and Olga Belov fled their homeland in 2022 after attracting the attention of Russian authorities – including military summons, threatening messages and attempts to locate them – after expressing opposition to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Nikita, 25, left his engineering job at a research institute in Moscow specialising in metallurgical technologies after finding out the work he was doing was connected to the Russian war effort. Since arriving in Finland on visas, Nikita and his mother, Olga, 55, a nurse anaesthetist, have been vocal supporters of Ukraine and public in their active support and coordination of aid sent to the country and its armed forces. But the Finnish immigration service told the mother and son that despite this they face “no real risk” if they return to Russia. In April, they were detained by Finnish authorities pending deportation. They were later released after a court intervention but are now awaiting a decision that could result in them being deported within weeks. The Belov case is understood to be one of many of Russians being denied asylum in neighbouring Finland where legal experts deem their future risk and human rights have not been sufficiently assessed. Between February 2022 and June 2026, the Finnish immigration service deported 1,039 Russians according to official statistics: the most of any nationality. During the same period, 1,109 of 1,342 Russians were refused entry to Finland in connection with a negative asylum application. Since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Finland’s relationship with its neighbour has shifted drastically. Previously, Finland was a popular tourism destination for Russians and there were several well-used border crossings. It has since indefinitely closed its entire border, accusing Moscow of directing asylum seekers to Finland in a “hybrid operation”. Russia has also expanded its military bases on the border, while Nato – which Finland joined in 2023 – has conducted training exercises in the country. Nikita said his problems in Russia started when he realised that his boss had lied when he had told him that the project he was working on was not linked to the war effort. When he tried to come off the project, he said his boss threatened him with arrest or being sent to the frontline. “After that I realised I cannot leave this job without consequences and that we had to think about the situation,” Nikita said. His mother, he said, was then called by the military to ask about him and their house was visited by police. They soon came to the conclusion that they had no option but to leave Russia. “Now we realise if we come back we will be arrested immediately and go to jail and be tortured,” Nikita said. In Finland they have volunteered at their local Ukraine centre and contributed to humanitarian support, including help for first aid, food, clothes, Starlink equipment and a 3D printer, for which they received a video thank you message from Ukrainian soldiers. “We try to adapt, try to support Ukraine, try to state our opinion, because it is very important to help Ukraine. Help them strike back,” he said. The mother and son first applied for asylum in Finland in 2022 but it was refused, after which they unsuccessfully appealed. This year they applied again and were refused and were sent a deportation order. They were then placed in a detention centre awaiting deportation but after a court intervention were allowed to go home before a final decision. “There were all bad things in our minds. It was like the start of torture because it was a totally traumatic experience,” Nikita said. “At the time we really tried to prepare for our death.” Since then they have suffered with their mental health and undergone panic attacks as they wait for the decision of the court. Their lawyer, who requested not to be named for security reasons, said the Belovs are very likely to be at risk if they are deported to Russia. Nikita’s work history will also put them at risk, the lawyer said. In a previous role he said he had access to confidential government information. While it has long been difficult to get asylum in Finland, the lawyer said that recent changes on the border and to asylum procedure, including reduced access to legal aid, has made it even harder. “It’s even more difficult to get refugee status, even with clear political opinion showing. We really have to fight these cases to get the status that was earlier easier to get.” The political activist and Putin critic Bill Browder, who is the head of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign, said the case is “a defining test of Europe’s commitment to protecting those who have risked everything to oppose Putin’s war”. Browder, whose friend and lawyer Sergei Magnitsky died at the hands of Putin’s regime, added: “If people who refused to support aggression, openly opposed the regime, and now face persecution are denied protection, it could create a dangerous precedent that discourages others from taking a stand against authoritarianism.” A Finnish immigration service spokesperson said it could not comment on individual cases. Antti Lehtinen, the director of the department for international protection, which is part of the Finnish immigration service, added: “The situation of each applicant is assessed individually, taking into account their personal circumstances. “For example, opposition to the war in Ukraine and related activities may constitute grounds for persecution based on political opinion. If we assess that a person’s political opinion or activities place them at risk of persecution or serious harm in Russia, they will be granted international protection.”

Costa Rican diplomat emerges as strong contender to be first female head of UN

A Costa Rican diplomat and former vice-president whose parents were refugees from the Holocaust has become the surprise frontrunner to lead the United Nations as its first female secretary general. Rebeca Grynspan, whose parents emigrated to Central America from Poland – and whose maternal grandparents were killed by the Nazis – is the current head of the UN conference on trade and development (UNCTAD), a body that has exhaustively tallied the economic damage inflicted by Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories. The current secretary general, António Guterres, will complete his second term on 31 December 2026 and under an informal system of regional rotation his successor is expected to come from Latin America. In a secret first straw poll of the UN security council, the five permanent and 10 temporary members were asked to say whether they supported, objected to or were neutral about each of seven candidates. Grynspan secured 10 “encourage” votes, four “no opinion” votes and one “discourage” vote. The identity of the discourage vote is not known, but the fact that she had only one objection places her in a strong opening position. The process is likely to conclude in October. Grynspan’s closest rival is Carolyn Rodrigues-Burkett, Guyana’s former UN envoy, with nine encourages, two discourages and four no opinions. At the close of a Bloomberg-sponsored debate at the general assembly last month she secured 49% of the vote among those attending, with Grynspan second on 14%. “Grynspan is seen by some as the continuity candidate, having the tacit support from Guterres,” said one western diplomat. “But the key is the source of the candidate’s discouragement votes: if [the votes] are coming from Russia, China or the US, there is a risk of deadlock.” The election comes at a critical moment for the legitimacy of multilateralism, as the UN suffers 20% job cuts and the secretary general’s role as mediator is supplanted by other actors, leaving the world body as a largely ignored moral conscience, or as a venue in which all sides vent their well-rehearsed differences. If elected, Grynspan would be the UN’s first Jewish secretary general. The UN has been criticised for overly focusing on Israel in its debates, but Grynspan has invoked her Jewish heritage to argue for the importance of ending conflict. She told the UN general assembly: “Peace is what made it possible for my parents, two refugees from the second world war, to find respect and dignity in a small country, Costa Rica. I am the daughter of this peace, a demonstration of what peace makes possible.” Her sister moved to Israel as a 17-year-old to study chemistry at the Hebrew University. As a result, her niece and nephew have completed compulsory service in the Israel Defense Forces. Under her leadership, however, UNCTAD has factually and starkly documented the economic damage wrought by Israel’s long-term occupation of the Palestinian territories. Its landmark February 2026 report found that “cumulatively, the Palestinian economy lost an estimated $212.2bn (in constant 2015 dollars) from 2000 to 2024. This partial, estimated lost potential, equivalent to nearly 20 times the entire Palestinian GDP of 2024, stems directly from Israeli occupation policies, restrictions, closures, and recurrent military operations.” In November 2025 Grynspan pointed out that Gaza’s GDP per capita had plummeted to $161 per person per year, one of the most severe economic contractions in modern history. Three other candidates, including Michelle Bachelet, have probably met with too much influential opposition to secure the job. Bachelet, the former president of Chile and a former UN human rights commissioner, faces opposition from the US government, which claims she was soft on China’s human rights record. But the Trump administration’s recent suggestion that the Fifa president, Gianni Infantino, should get the job symbolises America’s drift away from the UN mainstream. The secretary general is elected to serve an initial four-year term after the 193-strong general assembly is requested to endorse a single recommendation by the security council. A candidate needs nine positive votes and no veto by a security council member. The new candidate must be elected by the end of the year, and there will be further meetings of the security council to test opinion.

Blame game as Brussels builds ‘Europe’s largest frying pan’ instead of shady square

The redevelopment plan for Schuman Square at the heart of the EU quarter in Brussels was very ambitious. From a traffic-clogged, nondescript roundabout, it would become “an urban agora”, a greener, calmer meeting place, nothing less, said a former head of the Brussels government, than “a symbol that beats as the heart … of the European project”. It did not turn out that way. The result, say critics, is Europe’s largest frying pan, a concrete expanse with little greenery or shade. While the number of cars has reduced and the space is remodelled with smart grey paving, the centrepiece – a steel canopy with a green roof – was never built. Pascal Smet, a former Brussels minister for mobility, who launched the project in 2015, said he was disappointed, angry and sad. “Schuman Square is the carte de visite [the calling card] of Brussels. It is the symbol of Europe,” he said from a cafe on the square. “This should be a meeting place for people.” Outside on a humid July day around lunchtime, few were lingering on the vast concrete area. An international competition resulted in a Belgian-Danish consortium of architects being chosen to redesign the space, promising an “urban agora”. The roundabout is named after Robert Schuman, the former French foreign minister, who is celebrated as a founding father of what became the European Union. The canopy was to be the crowning glory. Planners imagined that EU officials and local people would lunch and chat under its shelter, which was modelled on the European parliament’s semi-circular chamber, the hemicycle. Tourists, it was hoped, would flock to the landmark and take selfies in its mirrored reflection. The green roof would be a refreshing contrast to the surrounding glass and steel EU buildings, offering respite from the sun, a need underscored by the record-breaking heatwave that hit Belgium in June. It would also shelter people from more traditional Brussels weather – it rains about 200 days a year. “The project is not finished,” its engineer-architect, Francis De Wolf, told the Belgian daily Le Soir. “It is very difficult for me to understand what has happened behind the scenes in politics.” It was always going to be a complex project: majestic tall trees were out of the question as the square sits over an underground car tunnel, railway and metro station, and a maze of gas and water pipelines. Planners also have to take into account the security needs of the surrounding EU institutions and its use as a venue for frequent demonstrations. The square is within the security perimeter of the European Council building, the “space egg”, which hosts regular summits of EU leaders. By the time work began in 2023 – six years after the winning design had been chosen – costs had spiralled as a result of high Europe-wide inflation stoked by the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine war, say city officials. The budget was announced as €25m (£21m) in 2023, with €17.4m from EU Covid recovery funds. Then came a Brussels political crisis. Power in Belgium is very decentralised and regional governments, including Brussels, have wide-ranging controls over public works, most transport and urban planning. The governance of Brussels is extra complicated: a bilingual city with 14 parties in the 89-seat parliament. After Brussels elections in June 2024 produced no clear result, parties were deadlocked over a new government for the city of 1.2 million people. Big construction projects were put on hold and investments were frozen. A coalition led by a Francophone liberal minister-president finally emerged this year after a record-breaking 613 days of negotiations. In the interim, the caretaker government had been unable to authorise new funds to pay for the higher costs of the canopy, but faced a deadline to complete works in order not to lose EU funds. “So we were in quite a conundrum, because we did not have the right to put the money into the canopy,” said François Deschamps, a spokesperson for the Brussels minister for mobility and public works, Elke Van den Brandt, who has held the post since 2019. The caretaker government in June 2025 appealed to the EU for a top-up. Their plea was shot down by Belgium’s prime minister, Bart De Wever, who denounced Brussels as “a failed state”. De Wever, a fiscal conservative on a mission to bring Belgium’s federal finances under control, argued that “begging” numerous European institutions for help was a national embarrassment. Taking office in February 2026, the new Brussels government cancelled the canopy, whose costs had shot up to €13m from €5m, Deschamps said. The Brussels council of ministers decided, Deschamps said, “we could do something greener, something cheaper, and something that still fulfils the goal, which is to bring shade and refreshment”. Brussels is in talks with architects to develop “something as green as possible within the building limitations of the square”, possibly with water features, Deschamps added. The city hopes the square will be finished by the summer of 2028, with details on the plans promised by the end of the year. Smet continues to argue for the canopy, while more than 2,100 people have signed a petition, launched by the Brussels branch of his Flemish socialist party, calling for its construction. But Smet says he is open to other ideas: “If you can imagine something better, that allows demonstrations, [deals with] security issues, is green, is iconic, is symbolic for European unity … if the alternative is better, I will not say no.”

Thailand school shooting toll rises to nine after 12-year-old dies, police say

The death toll from a school shooting in Thailand rose to nine on Saturday, after police said a 12-year-old girl caught up in Friday’s incident had died. Police at the Plai Bang Police Station in Nonthaburi Province said the girl, who had been treated at hospital with critical wounds, had died, a day after a 14-year-old boy allegedly shot his grandparents and then killed more people at his school before turning the gun on ⁠himself. The 14-year-old wounded more than 30 people in the ⁠shooting at the Debsirin Nonthaburi school northwest of Bangkok. Fourteen people remained in hospital on Saturday evening, seven of them in critical condition. Police are questioning more witnesses as part of their investigation, including the suspect’s parents. The boy had lived with his grandparents for 12 years after his parents had separated, Atthapol Anusit, deputy commissioner of the Provincial Police Region 1, ‌told reporters on Sunday. The suspected attacker fired at least 26 bullets with a gun belonging to his grandfather, and was found with 34 additional ammunition rounds. Police on Sunday told reporters the teenager had an air ⁠gun confiscated by a teacher last year and had watched violent content online and used social media to learn how to ⁠use a firearm. “According to witness interviews, the perpetrator had begun showing interest in studying the use of firearms ‌for some time, about one ‌to two years,” Atthapol said. Atthapol, who said police had so far interviewed 17 witnesses, said a knife had also been found in the boy’s bag and other evidence found at the crime scenes included a firearm, spent cartridge cases, and a personal computer. On the day of the incident, the suspected shooter remained inside the school after reports of the attack emerged, Arsit Sampantharat, the permanent secretary of the interior ministry, told PPTV. A lockdown at the school was declared over in about half an hour. Images from the scene showed students running with only socks on their feet as they were evacuated from the school. Thailand’s prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, has vowed to implement new gun laws, telling reporters only government officials on duty would be allowed to carry guns. However, he did not provide any ⁠specifics, including whether the legislation would tighten gun ownership requirements. Thailand has the highest rate of civilian gun ownership in south-east Asia, and in 2017 the Switzerland-based Small Arms Survey placed the country 13th worldwide for small-gun possession. A number of mass shootings have occurred in recent years in Thailand, including incidents at schools and a large Bangkok mall, and a 2022 attack in the country’s north-east that ‌killed 37 people including 22 children.

Ukraine war briefing: Turkey calls for ‘moratorium’ on Black Sea attacks by Russia and Ukraine

Turkey’s foreign minister on Saturday called for a “moratorium” on attacks by Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea after a series of strikes on civilian ships there. “The conflict has spread across the whole Black Sea,” Hakan Fidan said in an interview with Turkey’s state news agency Anadolu. “To begin with, they targeted the ports and the military ships. Now, they are attacking all commercial shipping without distinction,” he added. Ships belonging to Turkey or flying the Turkish flag were among those targeted, he said. Russia has continued ⁠striking Ukrainian port infrastructure and vessels supporting the Ukrainian ⁠military, Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Saturday. The ministry ⁠said Russian forces hit military warehouses ‌containing communications and electronic warfare equipment in the Black Sea port of Odesa. In the port of Mykolaiv, Russian forces ‌struck a cargo vessel carrying military equipment and a warehouse storing weapons and military supplies, the ministry said. It added that another dry ⁠cargo vessel transporting military supplies for Ukraine’s armed forces was hit in the Black ‌Sea. Ukraine on Saturday denied targeting Bulgaria after a drone exploded close to the strategic Trans-Balkan gas pipeline linking Turkey to Ukraine near the Romanian border. There were no casualties or damage. Bulgaria’s defence ministry said the drone was of a type “widely used by the Ukrainian military”, and the foreign minister summoned the Ukrainian ambassador for a meeting on Monday in response, her office told AFP. Kyiv said it was “in close contact with the Bulgarian side to clarify the circumstances” of the incident, the latest case of a drone straying into Nato airspace as Ukraine fights off Russia’s invasion. “We can say with certainty that the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not intentionally direct any assets toward Bulgaria,” Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesperson Georgiy Tykhyi said, blaming Russia’s invasion for the incident. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned Ukraine is facing a winter with no working thermal power plants as overnight Russian strikes left four dead, including a child, in the Kyiv region. Speaking Saturday in Belgrade, alongside his Serbian counterpart, Aleksandar Vucic, the Ukrainian leader said Moscow’s latest overnight attacks and shelling of frontline communities combined had killed 13 people in the last 24 hours. “Russian missiles are aimed precisely at making the lives of Ukrainians unbearable,” Zelensky told reporters during his first official visit to Belgrade. Zelenskyy is in Serbia for talks on economic ties and security issues. The visit, which included talks with President Vucic on Saturday, is the first by a Ukrainian president in eight years. Vucic described Ukraine as a “friendly nation” and said he was honoured to welcome the Ukrainian leader. The two men discussed their countries’ efforts to join the European Union, bilateral ties and ways to expand cooperation. Drones have been detected above an army installation in western Germany known to house components for US-made Patriot air-defence systems, which Ukraine has frequently requested to help fight off Russia’s aerial bombardments. An investigation has been opened into the sighting at the installation, which has a large underground depot, a military operational command spokesperson said on Saturday. Mechernich is a special army site for storing equipment at a depth of 130 metres (425 feet) across about 30,000 square metres, or the equivalent of four football pitches. The latest incident comes days after an explosives-laden drone was found near a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig-Halle airport, which plays a key role in the transport of military goods by the German military and Nato allies.

Iran issues tough demands to reopen strait of Hormuz as deal still out of reach

Iran has issued tough new demands for reopening the strait of Hormuz, while the United Arab Emirates said one of its ships was targeted by an Iranian missile, as a deal to open the strategic waterway remained out of reach on Saturday. Iran’s politburo-like body known as the supreme national security council said the strait of Hormuz will not open until the United States “corrects its behaviour”, and its state broadcaster published a statement from the council’s secretary, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, who is also a commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The US must never threaten Iran again, the statement said, and must permanently end the war with Iran and its armed allies in the region. The US must lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports and withdraw its military from the area. It also must “completely compensate” Iran for war damage, lift sanctions and “unconditionally” release frozen assets. There was no immediate comment from the US, which has wanted an acceptable deal on the strait before ending the blockade. According to the interim deal signed in June, a schedule to end sanctions and a plan for compensation would be part of the final deal, and negotiations would address frozen assets. The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Saturday that they were close to reaching an agreement on navigation, “specifically the determination of a transit route”. But the waterway’s reopening is contingent on other conditions, he said, in remarks shared on social media, and blamed the situation on what he called the US violation of the interim deal. Oman, which is mediating and has made relatively few comments on the talks, said in a statement on Saturday that the discussions were continuing “in a positive and constructive atmosphere”, and condemned attacks on ships on the strait. Iran has imposed an effective blockade of the strait and wants to charge users for passage, repeatedly attacking ships it accuses of attempting to circumvent its preferred route. The US opposes any Iranian tolls in the strait, though the June deal allows Tehran to hammer out arrangements for the “future administration” of Hormuz in conjunction with fellow coastal state Oman. The 60-day period to negotiate a final deal will end in just over a week but could be extended. Iran has said it was close to reaching a separate deal with Oman to manage the strait, which runs between the two countries. Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian, a relative moderate, said he believed now was the best time for an agreement. “There is cohesion, strength, and unity in the country, and as far as I know, Iran is considered victorious and powerful in this war,” Iranian news agencies quoted him as saying. Continued attacks in the strait, which was free to sail through before the war, led to the collapse of an April ceasefire, and mediators have since urged both sides to return to the terms of the June memorandum. The strait, which is crucial to global supplies of oil and natural gas, had been considered an international waterway before the war. Ship transits remain low. Meanwhile, a vessel owned by Abu Dhabi’s state-owned Adnoc oil and gas company was attacked while sailing through the strait of Hormuz, Emirati authorities said earlier on Saturday. The foreign ministry said Iran fired the missile as part of attacks on commercial shipping. Adnoc said in a statement that there were no casualties following the attack early on Saturday. The company said more than a dozen of its vessels have been attacked by missiles and drones while using the strait since the US and Israel launched the war on Iran in February. One crew member has been killed and 20 others wounded, it said. Adnoc did not elaborate on the location of the attack or any damage. Later, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre said a vessel east of the town of Khasab, Oman had been struck by a projectile that caused a fire that was put out, and the vessel and crew were safe. It was not clear whether this was the Adnoc incident.

When bird flu hit the UK, suffering seabirds died in their thousands. Australia’s wild flocks will soon do the same

Sandwich terns are a graceful seabird known for their committed, forceful and spectacular plunging dives into the ocean to catch fish. Thousands of the species started to fall sick across Europe in 2022 with tens of thousands dying as a lineage of the H5N1 bird flu – 2.3.4.4b – spread through the continent’s wild flocks. The effects of the virus on the brain cause the terns to flounder on the ground, craning and straining their necks in a suffering behaviour known as star-gazing. It is difficult to watch. “I remember a colony at Scolt Head Island in Norfolk,” says Prof James Pearce-Higgins, the director of science at the British Trust for Ornithology. “You had adult terns trying to mate with dead terns and chicks begging for food from their dying parents. “It was a real sense of a colony collapse as you watched this transfer of the virus between birds.” Sandwich terns are close relatives of greater crested terns, which are seen all around Australia and were the first native bird to suffer a mass mortality event from the disease in Australia on South Australia’s Limestone Coast. Since the virus re-emerged in Europe in 2021 it has swept over every other continent, killing millions of birds and mammals, and infecting more than 400 bird species as well as mammals – in particular, seals and sea lions. The virus was finally detected in Australia two months ago in migratory seabirds that likely brought the disease from breeding grounds in the subantarctic. Sign up to get climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s Clear Air column as a free newsletter This week, the federal government revealed analysis of the potential threat to Australia’s wildlife which showed almost 400 species of birds and mammals were at “high risk” or worse if they caught the disease. One expert who worked on the analysis, Prof John Woinarski of Charles Darwin University, tells the Guardian he expects the disease will have spread across the continent within a year. Pearce-Higgins says: “I would expect Australia is going to experience large mortalities, like those we have been through, and it’s going to put some species at risk.” Almost half of Australia’s bird species are unique to the continent, meaning that a lot of uncertainty comes with predicting what H5N1 could do to the animal population. It also means the risk of the virus causing planet-wide extinctions is higher now that every continent is affected. Death toll will be ‘confronting’ “We’ve been looking overseas since 2021 and seeing the advance of this virus,” says Dr Sara Ryding, an evolutionary ecologist at Deakin University. “It has been horrible overseas – tens of thousands of birds dying in single colonies. “The concern was, we knew it was going to arrive eventually – how could it not? But we didn’t know what it would look like when it got here.” Ryding has led research to project the level of risk from H5N1 for all Australia’s bird families by developing a model based on official reports of the disease from around the globe to the World Organisation for Animal Health. The research suggested the most at-risk families of birds were gannets and boobies (Sulidae), followed in descending order of risk by cranes (Gruidae), darters (Anhingidae), ducks, geese and swans (Anatidae), and gulls, terns and noddies (Laridae). But a host of other bird families – including pelicans, crows, ravens, falcons and kestrels – were all predicted to be susceptible. While many species of those birds are not considered threatened, the sight of large numbers of dead and sick birds, particularly larger species like swans and pelicans, “is going to be confronting,” Ryding says. “I don’t want to cause panic, but we have seen the devastation it has caused overseas and there’s no reason to think it will be any less devastating here,” she says. “I think it will be really bad.” Studies have identified several behaviours that can make animals susceptible to catching the disease, such as scavenging dead and dying animals for food (as do gulls and Tasmanian devils), spending time in dense colonies (like seals and waterbirds) and spending time around bodies of water where the virus can live for weeks or months, or where other infected animals might also be around. ‘Devastating’ for seals and sea lions The virus has been particularly damaging for seals and sea lions. Tens of thousands of seals and sea lions have died in outbreaks in Peru, Chile, Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina and, most recently, on Australia’s subantarctic territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands. The virus can cause debilitating conditions for the seals and sea lions – known collectively as pinnipeds – with severe neurological and respiratory symptoms. Australia has three resident pinniped species – the New Zealand fur seal, the Australian fur seal and the already endangered Australian sea lion – and government analysis has suggested the risk for all three from the virus is “very high”, meaning “very severe reduction in population size or viability is predicted” if the virus reaches them. Dr Saia Bartes is an Argentinian marine biologist who has just completed her PhD on Australian fur seals at Deakin University and has helped study declines in South American sea lions after the virus struck there. “It was devastating for them. In north Patagonia, we lost a third of the sea lions,” she says. Because pinnipeds often share space with infected birds, and tend to be in tightly packed groups, Bartes says they are particularly susceptible. Pinniped numbers are still recovering from commercial hunting, she says, and “they could start declining again really quickly, which is happening in South America” if the virus found them. Back in the UK, Pearce-Higgins says there is some hope. Their experience of collaboration with conservation groups, volunteers and local authorities through weekly and later monthly meetings had been critical in the response. And there were some signs the impacts of the virus may be slowing. “The hope is that because a lot of these birds are long-lived, the population could be more resilient. But we still don’t really know the probabilities of future outbreaks,” he says. “It might look really bad for a few years, but the hope is that [Australia] can focus on the conservation of what is left.”