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Europe scrambles to join Ukraine talks as EU nations attempt to bolster militaries – Europe live

The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, insisted that Ukraine can still successfully defend itself, pushing back on the narrative “peddled by Russia,” as he insisted that it’s not Kyiv, but Moscow, who must face pressure to agree to peace. His comments come as European governments continue to plan how they could influence the US-led peace talks on ending the Russian war on Ukraine ahead of further crunch talks expected as early as next week, with the legally tricky issue of somehow using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine still remaining close to the top of the list. But there is also growing focus on Europe’s own defence. Later today, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, will unveil proposals for a new voluntary military service to boost the country’s defences without having to return to regular conscription. Under plans, France will see the number of its reservist grow to 100,000 by 2030. The new volunteers would not serve in overseas missions like a potential peacekeeping deployment to Ukraine, Macron is expected to stress in a bid to quash domestic criticism of the idea. The issue of ramping up national – and European – military and potential participation in the future Ukraine mission is also likely to come up during talks between Germany’s Friedrich Merz and Estonia’s Kristen Michel in Berlin. I will bring you all the key updates throughout the day. It’s Thursday, 27 November 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live. Good morning.

West is ‘missing obscure sanctions that could set back Russia’s war machine’

A US group has identified several obscure but potentially key sanctions it says could seriously disrupt Russia’s war effort in Ukraine after last month’s targeting of the Kremlin’s biggest oil firms. Previous rounds of sanctions have been applied to Russian energy companies, banks, military suppliers and the “shadow fleet” of ships carrying Russian oil. But Dekleptocracy, a civil society group that researches Russia’s war economy, says chemicals used to make mechanical lubricants and military-grade tyres are a vulnerability that US, UK and EU policymakers could exploit. Kristofer Harrison, the group’s president and a former State Department expert on Russia, described the targets as “weedy and specific”, unlike the microchips and oil companies that generally draw the attention of governments and agencies. But they are hard to replace and essential to Moscow’s ability to field tanks and fight. Dekleptocracy says. “A lubricant shortage would seriously damage Russia’s war machine,” it wrote in its latest report. Only a handful of companies worldwide make chemical additives for mechanical lubricants – motor oil for tanks and cars. Almost all of them stopped selling the chemicals to Russia at the start of its full-scale invasion, leading to widespread shortages and complaints from motorists. Dekleptocracy found that one Chinese company, Xinxiang Richful, now satisfies a large part of Russia’s demand, supplying up to eight million kilograms a year. Richful recently set up an office in Virginia. Blocking it, as well as a few smaller suppliers, would create a mechanical lubricant shortage in Russia, the group says. Xinxiang Richful did not respond to a request for comment. DeKleptocracy also found that Russia has little domestic capability to make vulcanisation accelerants and other substances needed to produce military-grade tyres. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said at a G7 meeting last week that most major sanction options had been acted upon. “Well, there’s not a lot left to sanction from our part, I mean, we hit their major oil companies, which is what everybody’s been asking for,” he said. Tom Keatinge, the director of the finance and security centre at the Royal United Services Institute, the UK’s leading defence thinktank, said Dekleptocracy’s findings were valuable work and proof that sanctions targets remain. “For so long as Russia is successfully procuring the components it needs for its military, and for so long as Russia is successfully selling its oil, the environment remains target-rich,” he said. Russia has a strong oil industry, but it lacks domestic producers of many lesser-known but important chemicals, including food additives and substances used to make tyres, pharmaceuticals and shampoo. Moscow started an initiative earlier this year to produce hundreds of chemicals domestically – further evidence that the sector is a weakness, Dekeleptocracy says. “We looked at the Russian economy, some of the things that they absolutely need to keep their war machine running,” said Harrison. “We looked at their manufacturing base, their chemical base, to find critical issues, the things that the Russians cannot manufacture themselves.” Rubio’s remarks came after the US imposed sanctions on the Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil in October in an effort to “degrade” Russia’s war machine. Keatinge said it was too early to decide whether the sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil had been effective, because little had been done to enforce secondary sanctions against companies that continued to buy their oil. “A successful sanctions regime relies not only on identifying new targets, but also ensuring implementation against already identified targets,” he said. “Ukraine’s allies need to follow through on implementing existing sanctions and taking action against those that facilitate evasion.” Dekleptocracy was involved in previous efforts to impose sanctions on the Arctic LNG 2 gas terminal. It worked with the Biden administration to identify elements of the project – such as specific ice-class tankers – essential to its operation and vulnerable to US pressure. “I think they did an incredible job of demonstrating potential weakness that could at least be disruptive,” said Cara Abercrombie, formerly a US assistant defence secretary under Joe Biden. “Maybe not permanently damaging, but certainly disruptive.” Dekleptocracy is part of a larger civil society effort – which includes Ukrainian groups such as Razom We Stand and B4Ukraine, and the Center for Advanced Defense Studies in the US – to trawl through vast amounts of trade data to find weaknesses in Russia’s war economy and pinpoint sanctions targets for governments. Keatinge said the groups often find targets that policymakers miss. “It’s very valuable work. It regularly surfaces anomalies that need to be addressed,” he said.

Thursday briefing: What could the government’s proposals to scrap jury trials mean for democracy?

Good morning. Yesterday, Rachel Reeves finally delivered her long-trailed budget aimed at plugging a £20bn financial hole in government finances. The single biggest tax raising measure was a three-year freeze on income tax and national insurance thresholds, slightly longer than expected, to draw more people into a higher tax band. Head here for a full breakdown, here to figure out how you will be impacted, and make sure you read our expert panel’s take on if Reeves’s measures all add up. But amid the budget buzz, today’s newsletter is about another massive issue facing our cash-strapped government. It’s been a cornerstone of British democracy since the 13th century and is even included in the Magna Carta, and yet, this government could soon come close to scrapping the right to trial by jury. A leaked internal government briefing shows that justice secretary David Lammy is proposing to massively restrict this ancient right. The document confirms plans to create a new tier of courts in England and Wales, removing guarantees to a jury trial for all except those accused of the most serious crimes, such as rape, murder, manslaughter or other cases in the public interest. Lammy’s proposals have drawn a furious backlash from senior lawyers who warned they could “destroy justice as we know it.” So will they deal with the backlog, or just make matters worse? And where did these proposals come from? For today’s newsletter, I asked Rajeev Syal, the Guardian’s home affairs editor those questions. First, here are the headlines. Five big stories Budget | Rachel Reeves targeted Britain’s wealthiest households with a £26bn tax-raising budget to fund scrapping the two-child benefit policy and cutting energy bills. UK politics | Keir Starmer has called on Nigel Farage to apologise to his school contemporaries who claim the Reform leader racially abused them while at Dulwich College. Hong Kong | The death toll from a huge fire that engulfed several residential tower blocks in Hong Kong has risen to 44, with 45 in critical condition and hundreds reported missing. Ukraine | The European Commission president has warned against “the unilateral carving up of a sovereign European nation” as Europe scrambles to assert influence over the US’s attempt to end the war in Ukraine. UK news | On what was due to be the first day of a four-week trial, Paul Doyle unexpectedly changed his plea to guilty, after being charged with injuring 29 people at a Liverpool FC celebration parade in May. In depth: ‘Teetering on the verge of collapse’ Plans to cut jury trials have been widely trailed and Shabana Mahood, Lammy’s predecessor, declared “from day one” that the “criminal justice system was on the verge of collapse” and would need radical reform. This is down to mounting concern within government that a record backlog in the crown courts, at almost 80,000 cases, shows no sign of dropping. In practice, this means suspects charged with serious crimes today might not have a trial until 2029 or 2030. One barrister told Rajeev Syal of an alleged rapist who had been bailed until 2030. It was this backlog that resulted in Sir Brian Leveson recommending the government end jury trials for less serious offences in July, which he said he did with “a heavy heart”. His proposals following an independent review included taking thousands of trials in England and Wales away from the jury system, to be heard instead by judges and magistrates, for defendants facing sentences of up to three years. But despite Lammy previously defending jury trials when they were under threat during the Covid pandemic, his leaked plans go even further than Leveson’s – suggesting that judges alone will preside over trials for offences meriting prison sentences of up to five years, removing the magistrate element suggested by Leveson in July. No final decision on Lammy’s controversial proposals has been taken by the government. But the proposals had been circulated throughout Whitehall in preparation for an announcement in the new year, sources have told Rajeev. Critics argue that the move will destroy a criminal justice system that has been a source of pride for centuries. “That’s where we are right now,” said Rajeev, who believes there is “no doubt” the government is determined to cut jury trials. “It can’t see another way through, and the Conservatives aren’t actually coming up with alternative plan,” he says. *** How did we get to this point? The background to all of this is a wider crisis in the criminal justice system, a lot of which relates to 15 years worth of cuts. The justice system is in crisis from overcrowded prisons, which are at 97.5% capacity, to a probation service struggling to recruit. A recent independent review by a former prisons watchdog, commissioned by Shabana Mahmood when she was justice secretary, found the criminal justice system in England and Wales was within days of collapse on three occasions before being bailed out by “last-minute emergency measures”. The entire system is “teetering on the verge of seizing up and failing to operate,” said Rajeev. “Last year, with jails being full, we had the possibility that we couldn’t send any more people to prison,” he said. Lammy “wants to be more radical about the kind of cases that will still face juries and cut out even more cases that Leveson flags up”, said Rajeev. “That’s been the shock and the surprise and the Conservatives and others are now kind of trying to turn it into a major political issue”. *** In what circumstances does a defendant currently have a jury trial? Historically, only defendants facing minor offences in a magistrates court, such as minor motoring offence or minor criminal damage, have been denied the right to a jury trial. But a so-called “either way’ offence, which includes theft, fraud, possession of drugs, dangerous driving, and assault, can either be heard in a magistrate or crown court. Criminal trials with juries of 12 members, drawn from the public and asked to decide whether someone is guilty beyond reasonable doubt, are standard in England and Wales’s 70-plus crown courts, which hear the most serious cases. In 2014, only 8% of these on trial for an “either way” offence elected for a jury trial. By 2022, this had more than doubled. Sarah Sackman, the courts minister, told the Guardian last week fewer jury trials were necessary to stop criminals “gaming the system” by opting for jury trials in order to increase the chances of a trial collapsing. Drug dealers and career criminals were “laughing in the dock” knowing cases can take years to come to trial, Sackman said. *** Are the proposals more likely to see miscarriages of justice? Reformers and charities have warned that taking away the right to a jury trial for more offences would disadvantage people of colour and other minorities and lead to more miscarriages of justice. Those campaigners argue that, while juries are far from perfect, they are a vital safeguard amid a background where ethnic minorities currently make up around 18% of the general population in England and Wales, but just 12% of the judges, with the representation of black judges remaining unchanged at 1% for a decade. Another question for the government in the coming weeks and months will be whether these radical plans could actually save the justice system from collapse. The Labour peer and legal expert Helena Kennedy has called the plans a mistake: “The reason that the system is on its knees is because of the ridiculous ways in which we have underfunded the justice system because it’s not seen as important enough,” she said. Rajeev predicts we’ve not seen the last of the row. “I think there will inevitably be, over the next couple of days, concerns that the government is going to be forcing minorities into a position where they are going to be heard by judges that are still only 12% BAME (Black, Asian and minority ethnic),” he said. “And that will mean, inevitably that there will be more miscarriages of justice.” What else we’ve been reading Leyland Cecco reports from Toronto on the fate of 30 captive beluga whales in a shuttered Canadian amusement park, and what it tells us about the ethics of keeping these beautiful animals in captivity at all. Martin It’s Christmas party season – allow Zoe Williams to greet you at her door with this luxury platter of bite-size advice on how to be a good host, how to be a good guest, how to dress (“if there’s any kind of theme, take it seriously”) and more. Charlie Lindlar, newsletters team Ahead of the pair meeting again in the Europa League in Rotterdam this evening, Ewan Murray looks back at the 1970 European Cup final between Feyenoord and Celtic, describing it as “a sliding doors moment”. Martin Leah Harper’s piece on the death of the living room – and how everything from bedrooms to kitchens to, allegedly, stairwells – are the new social spaces of our homes, is equal parts fascinating and terrifying. Charlie Johana Kasalicka returned to her home town, Prague, for this i-D magazine street photo essay profiling 11 young people she says embody “new liberal attitudes, emerging openness and fresh artistic energy” in the city. Martin Sport Football | Arsenal recovered from a nervous start to outplay Bayern Munich and win 3-1 to go top in the Champions League group phase. Arne Slot said he still had the support of the Liverpool hierarchy after their 4-1 Champions League defeat by PSV Eindhoven. Tottenham show more spirit than in miserable derby defeats but European champions are too hot for Tottenham to handle. Rugby union | Manu Tuilagi has refused to rule out playing for Samoa at the 2027 Rugby World Cup, leaving open the possibility of him facing Steve Borthwick’s England in Australia. Formula One | Adrian Newey, regarded as one of the best engineers in F1 history, will become Aston Martin team principal next season. Newey committed his long-term future to the team in September 2024 after his departure from Red Bull sparked a bidding war for the Brtion’s services. The front pages “‘I am asking everyone to make a contribution’” is the splash on the Guardian today. “High welfare, high tax,” says the Times, “The benefits street budget,” has the Sun, while the Telegraph runs with: “A red box of broken promises.” “Spiteful raids on strivers - to lavish billions on Benefits St,” is the splash over at the Daily Mail. “Spend now, pay later: £26bn in tax rises to boost benefits and tackle UK black hole,” is the top headline at the i. “Budget with a Labour heart,” writes the Mirror, while the Express opts for: “A budget for benefit street paid for by working people. Finally the FT has “Reeves Budget smashes tax records,” and the Star: “How The Rach Stole Christmas.” Today in Focus Mansions, milkshakes and the minimum wage: Labour’s 2025 budget After so much buildup, Rachel Reeves has finally unveiled her budget, but will it be enough to turn things around for the government? Our economics editor, Heather Stewart, reports. Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad To purists it may seem sacrilege, but a 2,000-year-old Roman amphitheatre will be made fully accessible for people with disabilities before the Milano-Cortina Winter Paralympics. Milano-Cortina 2026 chief executive, Andrea Varnier, said “The decision to stage the opening ceremony in the Arena di Verona is not just an aesthetic one … it was also an idea to make the arena accessible, and not only the arena itself, but the entire route from the railway station to the venue.” He said the refurbishment is central to the Games’ legacy, alongside expanding accessible public transport in the region and funding education and training in winter para-sports. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Martin Belam’s Thursday news quiz Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

Pope Leo to visit Turkey and Lebanon on first overseas trip as pontiff

Pope Leo will make his debut overseas trip as leader of the Catholic church on Thursday, travelling on a six-day mission of peace and unity to Turkey and Lebanon in what the Vatican said was expected to be a “demanding” schedule packed with meetings with political and religious leaders amid heightened Middle East tensions. In Turkey, a country with a Muslim majority and home to an estimated 36,000 Catholics, the Chicago-born pontiff, who was elected in May, will first meet President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara. He will also meet Patriarch Bartholomew, the spiritual leader of the world’s 260 million Orthodox Christians, for celebrations of the 1,700th anniversary of a major early church council in Nicaea, now İznik, which settled ideological disputes. Leo’s arrival is especially anticipated in Lebanon, where many fear a deepening conflict between Israel and Hezbollah after an Israeli strike earlier this week on a neighbourhood in southern Beirut that killed four Hezbollah operatives and one of the group’s most senior military commanders. Leo’s predecessor, Francis, who died in April, had planned to visit both countries but was unable to because of ill health. Leo is considered more of a moderate, low-key operator than the charismatic but often divisive Francis, and the choice of Turkey and Lebanon for his first overseas trip is highly strategic, while also presenting an opportunity for the pope to show the world his style and personality. In recent weeks, Turkish media has buzzed with images of Vatican delegations touring the country, while in Beirut banners showing Pope Leo’s smiling face have lined the stone outer walls of churches in the Lebanese capital’s central Christian neighbourhoods. “This is a trip where Leo will get to promote one of the central themes of his papacy, peace – and he’ll have two different audiences in mind,” said Christopher White, a Vatican expert and author of Pope Leo XIV: Inside the Conclave and the Dawn of a New Papacy. “One will be world leaders: Turkey and Lebanon are strategic locations for him to double down on his efforts for peace in Ukraine and in the Middle East and with this being his first foreign outing, he’ll have the attention of world leaders closely following the trip.” The second audience will be Christian leaders, as Leo attempts to unite the region’s long-divided churches. He would especially use the anniversary celebrations in Turkey “to remind believers what they share in common is far greater than their divisions,” White said. The pope will also visit the Blue Mosque in Istanbul and will celebrate a Catholic Mass at the city’s Volkswagen Arena. Leo’s arrival in Lebanon on Sunday afternoon comes during a period in which many fear a potential return to the two-month Israeli bombing campaign that blanketed southern Lebanon and Beirut last year. Karim Emile Bitar, a professor of international relations at the Saint Joseph University of Beirut, said Lebanon’s Christian community would be looking to the pope for a message of unity at a time when the country remained deeply polarised. “This visit matters because the Vatican has historically been the main protector of Lebanese national unity and of Lebanese territorial integrity,” he said. “Most states have political or economic interests. The Vatican is one of the last moral authorities in the world that genuinely tries to promote peace and justice without any hidden agenda.” Bitar said he believed Leo would “find the right words” during a visit that had “the potential to demonstrate that global powers like the Vatican can attempt to heal divisions in Lebanese society without pursuing their own political interests”. He added: “Even though this visit is symbolic, and even though the Vatican has no army and no military influence, the simple fact that this is a man who speaks to people with genuine goodwill may matter more than the representatives of heavily militarised regional powers who are pushing Lebanon toward fragmentation.” Leo will lead prayers in Beirut’s port, where a deadly blast destroyed swaths of the capital in 2020, and visit a psychiatric hospital run by the Catholic church. The Turkey trip had been on the agenda for some time before Leo received the official invitation to Lebanon, where leaders hope the papal visit will bring world attention to a country also in deep economic strife. “He immediately embraced it,” said Andrea Vreede, Vatican correspondent for NOS, the Dutch public radio and TV network. “Going to Lebanon means being able to talk about peace in the Middle East, in a really war-torn country, and very near to Israel. I’m not sure if he’ll speak directly about Gaza but he will obviously use Lebanon as a platform for peace.” The Lebanese, meanwhile, “want some hope from him”, added Vreede. “It’s a country that is also in huge economic crisis … they see this visit as basically the only miraculous thing that can help them.” After Francis in 2021 made the high-risk trip to Iraq, where he visited Mosul, the northern city devastated by Islamic State militants, Leo has faced some criticism for not visiting Christian communities in southern Lebanon. “He won’t go there – it’s too unsafe,” said Vreede. Meanwhile, Christians in other countries are hoping he will visit them, too. Inside the Maronite church in Bab Touma, a historically Christian neighbourhood in the Syrian capital of Damascus, Fahed Dahta said he was overjoyed at the visit to the region. “This visit is enormously important to people. We need peace in the Middle East. I want peace for the entire region, and an end to all of these wars: Israel-Lebanon, Israel-Palestine, Israel and Syria,” he said. “He represents peace: He’s the pope!”

St Vincent prime minister seeks record sixth term in tight election

Voters in St Vincent and the Grenadines will go to the polls on Thursday with Ralph Gonsalves seeking a record sixth consecutive term as prime minister. The elections are expected to be a tight contest between the ruling Unity Labour party, which has been in power since 2001, and the opposition New Democratic party. In the last election, ULP won nine of 15 seats, but the NDP won the popular vote. The ULP has been campaigning on the party’s economic development record. According to a recent World Bank assessment, economic growth is expected to remain “robust at 4% in 2025”. The report said that “despite multiple shocks in recent years, economic activity recovered and remained strong in 2025, supported by tourism and infrastructure investment”. In the past decade, the country has suffered setbacks such as the pandemic, the La Soufrière volcanic eruption of 2021 and catastrophic storms such as Hurricane Beryl, which devastated the archipelago last year. Gonsalves has presided over the building of the country’s first international airport, facilitating a tourism boom that has drawn hotel brands such as Sandals and Holiday Inn. The prime minister has been a global champion of climate justice and slavery reparations. He has also prioritised education, allowing people who would not otherwise be able to afford university to get undergraduate and postgraduate degrees through scholarships. But the opposition has accused the ruling party of “failure and broken promises”, citing the rising cost of living and unemployment, especially among young people. The NDP has promised more and better-paid jobs, to address rising crime and violence and to improve healthcare and infrastructure. The opposition has also pledged to follow other Caribbean countries in introducing a programme to allow individuals to gain citizenship through significant financial contributions to the economy. St Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) is the only member of the six-state Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States not to offer citizenship by investment. Some people have questioned Gonsalves’ leadership, said Adrian Fraser, a historian and former head of the University of the West Indies’ global campus in SVG. He added: “You have the leader of that party who is 79. Next year, he would be 80. So there are people who are calling for a change and who are wondering why the leader, the prime minister, would want to continue at this age.” The NDP is led by Godwin Friday who took the reins in 2016 and has been in parliament since 2001. Some of the party’s campaigning focused on the government’s vaccine mandate during the pandemic, which required most frontline workers to be jabbed and resulted in some losing their jobs. In 2021, Gonsalves was taken to hospital after being hit in the head with a stone in a demonstration against the mandate. During this year’s election campaign, questions have surfaced over whether an NDP government would end close diplomatic ties with Taiwan to pursue a relationship with China. The NDP said in 2016 it would align itself to Beijing and adopt a “one China” policy, which is the diplomatic acknowledgement of Beijing’s position that there is only one Chinese government and Taiwan is a breakaway province. Under Gonsalves’ leadership, SVG has continued to cooperate with Taiwan over infrastructure, education and healthcare. The relationship has yielded benefits such as the scholarships, support for the international airport and help with the construction of a state-of-the-art hospital. The latest NDP manifesto does not specify a position on Taiwan. It speaks about “reviewing … international partnerships” but also about broadening and deepening relations with other countries, while only mentioning the UK. Emanuel Quashie, an international relations lecturer at the University of the West Indies, said the NDP should have clarified its position, considering it had once proposed a switch to China. “Switching from Taiwan to China just like that would have serious, not just political, but economic implications for SVG … not least the students who are currently studying in Taiwan and some of the projects that Taiwan is currently funding … such as the modern hospital that we are building,” Quashie said.

European progressives must tackle housing crisis to beat far right, say researchers

Centre-left parties can build a broad new coalition of support if they tackle Europe’s deepening housing crisis, researchers have said. Conversely, ignoring it risks pushing increasingly fed-up voters into the arms of the far right. Research by the Progressive Politics Research Network (PPRNet) suggests dramatic rises in the cost of housing over recent years have eroded support for centre-left parties – once the champions of affordable housing – and fuelled anti-establishment disaffection. “Housing affordability has become a critical economic and political issue,” said Prof Aidan Regan of University College Dublin. “With credible solutions, progressive parties can reclaim that space, and bring voters with them – but it will need real political will.” A Eurobarometer survey last year found that rising prices and the cost of living – of which housing costs are the largest single component – had become the biggest issues shaping voter choices in the 2024 European parliament elections. Over the past two decades, average house prices across the EU as a whole have surged by almost half, while rents have grown by nearly a quarter. Housing costs in major EU cities increased by about 50% between 2015 and 2023 alone. House prices and rents have far outpaced wage increases, and are the biggest financial commitment most people face. They average 20% of household income across the EU, but with huge variations. In Ireland and Denmark, for example, costs are 80% above that average. However, the researchers noted, as the postwar view of housing “as a social right” has steadily given way to a model in which it is seen mainly “as a financial asset”, housing is also – for owners – the biggest source of wealth. Even under centre-left governments and local authorities, postwar social housing and rent control policies have largely been replaced by large-scale public housing sell-offs, mortgage deregulation and tax policies favouring ownership. Martin Vinæs Larsen of Aarhus University said data from Denmark – which is echoed elsewhere – showed the dramatic slowdown in social housing construction since the 1980s was not primarily driven by right-wing parties, but by the country’s Social Democrats. “Our research shows that, after the mid-1990s, Social Democratic control of local councils simply no longer translated into more social housing,” Vinæs Larsen said. “The political effort to expand social housing effectively disappeared.” This, he said, reflected changes in “who mostly lives in social housing, and who votes Social Democrat”. The former are increasingly likely to be less well off and from an immigrant background, while the latter are becoming more educated and affluent. But, Vinæs Larsen added, the scale of the housing crisis today meant there was now “a real opening for social democratic parties”, because a lot of left-leaning voters such as teachers and nurses “are basically being locked out of cities”. He said there were obstacles, including high newbuild costs, nimbyism, tighter eligibility rules that make it harder to frame social housing as serving the middle classes and “the narrative that social housing mainly benefits immigrant communities”. But he also cited possible solutions, such as higher social housing rents – as long as they are still cheaper than private ones. “People are absolutely in the market for this,” Vinæs Larsen said. “Social housing can again be a more universal good – not just a safety net.” Regan said similar dynamics would boost centre-left parties that manage to expand access to affordable ownership – the preferred model for most Europeans. Across the EU, only Germany has more rented homes than owner-occupied ones. Ownership in Europe, particularly among lower-income households and the young, has fallen over the past two decades, he added, and real electoral dividends await parties that can make it “affordable, accessible, and detached from speculation”. To achieve that, Regan said, centre-left parties should redefine ownership as “long-term security for low- and middle-income households, not a vehicle for speculative wealth. It should complement, not crowd out, public and non-profit rental sectors.” As things stand, inequality was “baked in” he said. “Homeowners are cushioned by wealth gains; tenants are stuck with high housing costs and little prospect of ownership; and younger generations without parental support are locked out.” People want “somewhere to live that’s stable, secure and affordable”, he said. “It’s pretty basic stuff. But there’s a whole generation out there who don’t have that, who are paying exceedingly high rents and have no hope of buying anytime soon.” Regan admitted the obstacles – such as rethinking mortgage systems so they enable affordable ownership without fuelling speculation – are considerable. But above all, “the narrative has to change”, he said. “Reframing housing as essential public infrastructure is the key. Housing is where the left can turn real material struggles into political power, and really rebuild a winning electoral coalition.” If it does not, the PPRNet researchers warned, Europe’s far-right parties will benefit. “There’s no evidence from countries such as Hungary or Austria that people vote for far-right parties for their housing policies,” said Dorothee Bohle from the University of Vienna. “But there’s plenty that the housing crisis is fuelling [that is] increasing support for these parties. In regions where house prices stagnate or fall, voters turn to the populist right. Likewise among lower-income voters in areas where local rents rise.” Moreover, Bohle said, far-right parties were actively “redefining housing, not as a social right but as a question of national identity, of family values, stability and private ownership. They target the middle classes and the ‘deserving poor’.” She added that her analysis of radical right parties in Hungary, Austria, Denmark, Germany and Poland revealed a common ideology that could be summed up as “housing-as-patrimony”, tying housing inequality to nativism and “family values”. Bohle cited the Fidesz party in Hungary as an example. It has linked housing to its pro-natalist agenda, with non-refundable grants for Hungarian families who promise to have children. “It’s about using housing to build on existing inequalities – and create new ones,” she said.

Jakarta overtakes Tokyo as world’s most populous city, according to UN

Jakarta has overtaken Tokyo as the world’s most populous city, according to a UN study that uses new criteria to give a more accurate picture of the rapid urbanisation driving the growth of megacities. The Indonesian capital is home to 42 million people, according to an estimate by the population division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs in its World Urbanisation Prospects 2025 report published this month. Jakarta is followed by the Bangladeshi capital Dhaka with 37 million people. With a population of 33 million, Tokyo – defined in the study as a megalopolis that includes three neighbouring prefectures – slipped to third place. That contrasts dramatically with the UN’s previous report in 2018, which placed the Japanese capital top with a population of 37 million. The shift in rankings is the result of new methodology that is more consistent in the way it categorises cities, towns and rural areas, according to UN officials. Earlier assessments using data from countries based on wildly varying definitions tended to prioritise Tokyo, said Patrick Gerland, head of the UN department’s population estimates and projection section. “The new assessment … provides a more internationally comparable delimitation of the urban extent based on similar population and geospatial criteria,” Gerland said. The number of people living in cities has more than doubled since 1950, when urban dwellers accounted for 20% of the world’s 2.5 billion people, according to the report. Now they comprise nearly half of the planet’s 8.2 billion people. By 2050, two-thirds of global population growth is projected to occur in cities, and most of the remaining one-third in towns, the report added. The number of megacities – defined as those with at least 10 million inhabitants - has quadrupled from eight in 1975 to 33 in 2025. Nine out of the 10 most populated cities – Jakarta, Dhaka, Tokyo, New Delhi, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Cairo, Manila, Kolkata and Seoul — are in Asia. “Urbanisation is a defining force of our time,” said Li Junhia, the UN undersecretary-general for economic and social affairs. “When managed inclusively and strategically, it can unlock transformative pathways for climate action, economic growth, and social equity.” Metropolitan Tokyo’s 33 million people are spread out across a wide area that takes in the surrounding prefectures of Saitama, Chiba, and Kanagawa. The latter includes Yokohama, itself a city of 3.7 million people. According to the new criteria, Tokyo was the world’s most populous city until around 2010, when it was replaced by Jakarta. While the Tokyo region used in the UN study has mirrored the rest of Japan in experiencing population decline in recent years, the city itself is heading in the opposite direction. According to the Tokyo metropolitan government, the population of the 23 special wards and 26 smaller cities comprising what might be called “Tokyo proper” is currently just over 14 million, compared to 13.2 million a decade ago. Net migration to the Japanese capital slowed during the Covid-19 pandemic, but has since recovered, driven by an influx of young people seeking work and education opportunities, according to the internal affairs ministry.